Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, July 20

Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, July 20

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cleveland at Minnesota
The Indians look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 0-4 in Kevin Correia's last 4 starts as an underdog. Cleveland is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-125)

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.524; NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.691
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 15.516; Cincinnati (Latos) 17.111
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-140); Under

Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.557; Washington (Gonzalez) 16.956
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-130); Under

Game 907-908: Miami at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 16.093; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.990
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+135); Over

Game 909-910: San Diego at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Volquez) 14.462; St. Louis (Lynn) 14.185
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+180); Over

Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Villanueva) 14.427; Colorado (Nicasio) 15.866
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Under

Game 913-914: Arizona at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 13.592; San Francisco (Cain) 15.028
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-145); Over

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.233; Toronto (Buehrle) 14.618
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Under

Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Boston (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.669; Boston (Lackey) 14.822
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+130); Under

Game 919-920: Detroit at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.390; Kansas City (Guthrie) 14.701
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Over

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 16.912; Minnesota (Correia) 15.489
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-125); Under

Game 923-924: Seattle at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.167; Houston (Bedard) 15.121
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Over

Game 925-926: Baltimore at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.212; Texas (Wolf) 14.236
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Under

Game 927-928: Oakland at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 15.506; LA Angels (Wilson) 16.944
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Over

Game 929-930: Atlanta at Chicago White Sox (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Maholm) 16.168; White Sox (Peavy) 15.063
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-110); Over

CFL

Montreal at Calgary
The Stampeders look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games in July. Calgary is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-7)

Game 423-424: Montreal at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 109.531; Calgary 122.495
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 13; 48
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7; 52
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-7); Under

Game 425-426: Edmonton at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 106.521; BC 120.171
Dunkel Line: BC by 13 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: BC by 8 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: BC (-8 1/2); Under

WNBA

Connecticut at San Antonio
The Sun look to take advantage of a San Antonio team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 home games. Connecticut is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+2)

Game 651-652: Connecticut at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 108.324; San Antonio 107.483
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 1; 162
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2; 158
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+2); Over

Game 653-654: New York at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 104.003; Chicago 119.981
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 16; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 11; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-11); Under

Game 655-656: Los Angeles at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 115.095; Seattle 112.790
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 7 1/2; 150
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+7 1/2); Under

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Fezzik

Montreal / Calgary Under 50

Montreal games had an average of 53.7 points scored last year, and this total seems to be set with those numbers in mind, but there is a new reality in Montreal. Let's examine their results so far. 

Week 1: Good defense, poor offense in a 38-33 win over Winnipeg. Despite the high score, the teams totaled only a combined 650 yards.  3 "bonus" TD"s came from two punt returns for TD's (one for each team) and a 3 yard TD drive.

Week 2: Good defense, poor offense.   The 18-11 loss (again to the Blue Bombers) saw Montreal score only 4 points off of the 5 turnovers they forced. 

Week 3:  Good defense, poor offense. (See a pattern here?).  The 22-14 home loss saw the Alouette defense perform heroically to hold Calgary to 5 turnovers despite the offense putting them in poor field position repeatedly.

Montreal QB Anthony Calvillo has gone from "first to worst" under this new coaching staff, whose head man Dan Hawkins didn't have a day of pro coaching experience to fall back on when he replaced the astute Marc Trestman (new Chicago Bears head honcho).   Calvillo has been sacked like a rag doll and is now without his two starting guards who will be out for injuries for weeks.

Now the Alouettes get Calgary for the second consecutive week.    With the Montreal offense line a sieve, Calgary's offense likely starting serviceable backup Kevin Glenn vs. sore-armed starter Drew Tate, and both defenses in fine form, there's little reason to expect anything other than a replay of last weekend's low scoring affair.

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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers at Kansas City RoyalsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Kansas City RoyalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When Jeremy Guthrie and the Royals host Justin Verlander and the Tigers Saturday evening in an A. L. Central division duel at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City will do so knowing Guthrie has cashed in 13 of his last 15 home team starts. Guthrie is also 3-0 his last three team starts against Detroit and 7-3 in games against the A. L. Central this season. With Verlander in wobbly current form, and just 1-4 in his last five-team starts in this series, we'll stay at home with the Royals here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves -110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago White Sox have been horrible in their interleague matchups this season. In 17 games they have posted a 6-11 record with a .239 batting average and scored just 3.1 runs per game. I expect to see the Braves offense put up a lot of early runs on Jake Peavy today. In his last three starts Peavy has a 7.63 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP.
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Atlanta will have Paul Maholm getting the start today. This season Maholm has a 3.98 ERA and he should have no problem shutting down this White Sox team that has a .238 batting average against left-handed starters. The pitching match up, and the offensive talent are both favoring the Braves in this game, and I expect to see Atlanta pick up a big win.

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Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Diamondbacks +130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Diamondbacks are showing some big time value here as a decent underdog against the Giants. This is a simply a fade of San Francisco starter Matt Cain, who is being priced for the pitcher he was and not the pitcher he's been in 2013. Cain is 5-6 with a 5.06 ERA in 19 starts. He's got a 5.94 ERA at home and a sad 9.82 ERA and 1.727 WHIP over his last three outings. There's clearly something not right. San Francisco has lost two of his three starts vs the Diamondbacks this season, including a 4-6 loss at home.
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The Diamondbacks don't have a ton of power, but that's the kind of teams that Cain has really struggled with. He's 1-7 over his last 8 starts vs teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs per game!
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Arizona Wade Miley on the other hand comes into this game pitching light's out. He headed into the All-Star break with a 1.66 ERA and 1.108 WHIP over his last three starts. He's going to come into this one extremely confident and I expect the offense to give him plenty of support to cash in a victory.

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Brad DiamondFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies -122FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phillies have won the last four starts by Cole Hamels. Further, the lefty has put together a super July allowing just 4 earned runs in 23 innings of work. This season Hamels has started 20 games with 14 quality starts to his credit. Philadelphia has been perfect lately in New York winning 6 straight. Hurler Zack Wheeler of New York is coming of his best outings of the season winning against San Francisco and Milwaukee on the road. However, the Mets are 1-11 in Saturday games and possess a horrible 15-36 record-as a home underdog. So, with the Phillies winning 6-of-the-last-8, I will take a ticket with Philadelphia.

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New York Yankees at Boston Red SoxFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Boston Red SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston is back home after a long road trip before the All Star break, returning to Fenway, a great offensive park. This Red Sox offense is Top 5 in runs and on base percentage. New York has one of their better pitchers going in Hiroki Kuroda, but he has a losing record against Boston, and the Yankees are 2-7 in Kuroda's last 9 starts overall. Red Sox righty John Lackey continues is impressive under the radar season, losing weight this offseason and telling everyone that he has been dedicated to a strong season. He has, with a 2.78 ERA overall and a 2-1 record his last three starts with a 2.05 ERA. He has walked only 23 in 100 innings with 93 Ks and 91 hits alloweds.

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Rocketman

Seattle @ Houston
Play: Seattle -138

The Seattle Mariners travel to Houston to take on the Astros in Saturday night. Seattle is the better team here with a 43-52 overall record this year while Houston is 33-61 on the season. Houston is 12-52 the past 3 years when playing in July. Houston is 98-206 the past 3 years when facing a right handed starter. Seattle has won 4 in a row while Houston has lost six of their past seven games overall. Seattle is scoring 6.9 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have an overall team batting average of .310 during that time. Houston is 17-32 at home this year where they have a team batting average of only .226. Houston is allowing 5.7 runs per game at home this year where opponents are hitting a combined .287. Iwakuma is 8-4 with a 3.02 ERA overall this year and has a 3.43 ERA on the road this season. Iwakuma has 113 strike outs overall this year compared to only 19 walks. Bedard is 3-6 with a 4.87 ERA in all starts this year and is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA his last 3 starts. Iwakuma is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his two starts vs Houston in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Seattle tonight!

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Alex Smart

Philadelphia Phillies -128

Phillies are 19-7 in their southpaw hurler( Hamels' )last 26 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. It must be noted that the Mets are 17-36 in their last 53 home games vs. a left-handed starter like Hamels. Mets have not been able to take advantage of home cooking this year and are 10-24 in their last 34 home games. Bettors who are looking to get an advantage with home dogs are better served looking somewhere elese as is evident by the Mets 15-36 mark in their last 51 games as a home underdog and expands to 15-39 in their L/54 as +110 to +150 pups. Phillies are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in New York and are good bets to cash again for their backers again this Saturday.

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Jack Jones

Arizona Diamondbacks +130

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing tremendous value as a nice-sized road underdog to the San Francisco Giants. Arizona leads the NL West standings and it should not be a dog considering the edge it has on the mound.

Wade Miley has posted a 4.01 ERA in 19 starts this season, a 3.54 ERA in 12 road starts, and a 1.66 ERA in his last three starts overall. He has given up just four earned runs over 19 2/3 innings in his last three outings.

Matt Cain has struggled all season. The right-hander has gone 5-6 with a 5.06 ERA in 19 starts this season, 3-4 with a 5.94 ERA in 10 home starts, and 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA in his last three starts. In his last two starts alone, Cain has given up a whopping 11 earned runs over 3 innings of work.

The Diamondbacks are 20-8 in their last 28 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. San Francisco is 0-4 in Cain's last 4 starts as a favorite. Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

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Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies -151

Colorado has won 11 of the last 12 here at home vs The Chicago Cubs. They also fit a solid System that has won 14 of 17 times the last 7 years and plays on certain home favorites that are off a home favored win by 2 or more runs and scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs and scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits. The Rockies have won the last 8 times as a home favorite from -150 to -175 and the Cubs have lost 8 of 11 as a road dog from +125 to +150 and are hitting just .231 on the road this year. Colorado averages over 5 runs per game at home and hits 50 points higher than the Cubs do on the road. Nicasio makes the start for Colorado and he was great in a Win at LA in his last start going 7 scoreless innings allowing just 3 hits in a win over Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. The Cubs counter with C. Villanueva and he was roughed up in his only start this year vs Colorado allowing 7 runs in 5 innings. Look for Colorado to take another from the Cubs tonight.

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Sports Experts 17

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

First game of the series was taken by the Reds (Our winning pick) 5-3 but this lose by the Pirates was all Liriano's fault because of a bad day and his team couldn't answer the Reds rally on the fifth inning. Today, Reds hand the ball to Mat Latos that already lose back in June 18th against this powerful Pirates 4-0. Sports Experts 17 predict another lose by Latos that he has been struggling his last 5 games and a win by pitcher A.J. Burnett that after coming back from DL he just won one game and two ND one's, expect a great day for Burnett in the mount.

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Bruce Marshall

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates might figure to be active at the upcoming trade deadline, but the return of so many key pitchers from the DL is effectively like adding players without having to sacrifice any prospects. The recent return of A.J. Burnett to the rotation is one such example, and Burnett makes his third start tonight since returning from the DL. Though he hasn't pitched beyond the 6th inning in his last tow starts, he has been somewhat effective (2.52 ERA), and could stretch out an extra inning or so tonight before the lights-out Buc bullpen takes over. As for the Reds, they wobbled before the All-Star break, and starer Mat Latos has been extremely erratic in recent starts (9.00 ERA last two outings). Latos also lost a 4-0 decision the last time he saw the Pirates on June 18, allowing three runs in 5 IP.

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Dave Price

Cincinnati Reds -140

The Reds have been a quality investment when Mat Latos is on the mound. They are 35-16 in his last 51 starts, 21-6 in his last 27 home starts, 17-6 in his last 23 starts versus division opponents and 6-0 in his last 6 Saturday starts. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, haven't been a sound investment of late with A.J. Burnett on the bump. The Pirates are 8-17 in his last 25 starts, 3-8 in his last 11 road starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Reds have won 6 of their last 8 at home versus Pittsburgh. Take Cincy.

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Chip Chirimbes

Washington Nationals -126

Both these clubs are disappointed at this points as they are both around .500 for the season and will be sending their most effective hurlers to the mound Saturday. The Dodgers will start Zack Greinke (8-2, 3.49 ERA) who has won his last five starts and is 3-0 lifetime against Washington. The Nationals will start Gio Gonzalez (7-3, 3.03) has won his last four starts and is 1-0 against the Dodgers. Right place, right time.

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Jesse Schule

Oakland vs. LA Angels
Pick: LA Angels

The Halos and the Athletics will be seeing a lot of each other over the next week, with this series wrapping up on Sunday and a four game set in Oakland starting on Thursday. The A's were without Yoenis Cespedes in last night's loss in the series opener, and his status is uncertain for Game 2.

C.J. Wilson will toe the rubber for the home team, and he finished the second half in top form. Wilson (9-6, 3.37 ERA) allowed a single run on just four hits over seven innings in a 13-2 win over the Cubs at Wrigley his last time out. He's 5-1 with a 2.04 ERA in six starts prior to the All Star Break.

Oakland will hand the ball to Dan Straily, who has been very sharp since being called up from Triple-A. Straily (6-2, 4.28 ERA) allowed just one run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 2-1 win at Pittsburgh his last time out.

He wasn't as fortunate the last time he faced the Angels though, getting torched for six runs on seven hits over just 4 2/3 innings in Oakland back in April.

The Angels have the 4th best team batting average in the majors, and they have won five of their last seven at home. With L.A. just a small favorite, the value lies with a play on the home team.

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Joe Gavazzi

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays   

Not about to jump off the meal ticket that has been Tampa Bay for us. The current surge is now 18-4 and 15-2. In those 17 games, the Rays have a 2.09 ERA. Part of that run has been the result of Hellickson in his performance in his last 5 starts over which time he has gone 4-0 with a 1.97 ERA. In 3 starts vs. Toronto this season, Hellickson has a 2.25 ERA. After an 11-0 blitz, Toronto has fallen back with a 7-14 recent record. Buehrle’s good work at home is the only reason for reducing this rating. But Buehrle comes off his worst outing of the year in which he allowed 8 runs in 6 IP of an 8-5 loss to Baltimore.

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Wunderdog

Tampa Bay at Toronto
Pick: Toronto -105

The Toronto Blue Jays have a lot of ground to make up in the AL East and the wildcard race, but will be poised for a win here this afternoon vs. Tampa Bay. Mark Buehrle has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last 10 years when he takes the ball at home. Buehrle's clubs have enjoyed a magnificent 93-42 record when he has taken the hill as a home favorite, the most profitable pitcher in baseball as a home favorite over the last decade. Jeremy Hellickson owns an 8-3 record, but sports a 4.67 ERA, so his record does not speak to his performance on the season, and this is a tough match-up for Tampa. The Jay's have come away with the win in Buehrle's last five home starts, and I expect another strong outing here. Play on Toronto.

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John Ryan

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

The simulator shows a high probability that Boston will win Game of this 3-game series and then look to sweep the Yankees Sunday night. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  119-64 mark for 65% winners and has made 48 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on AL home teams (BOSTON) allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season and is now facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. Boston is a solid money making 16-6 (+9.7 Units) against the money line after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. Lackey has been pitching well and is 4-1 with a 1.32 ERA and a 0.951 WHIP in 9 home starts.

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Jeff Alexander

KC Royals +1.5 -113

The Royals are showing value catching runs at this price considering they are 13-3 in Guthrie's last 16 home starts and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a home underdog. Furthermore, the Tigers have dropped 4 of their last 5 against the Royals and 7 of their last 10 in Kansas City. Detroit has lost 4 of Verlander's last 5 starts against the Royals, including both this season. Bet KC on the run line.

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