MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, July 19

MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, July 19

Friday MLB Thoughts/Winners/Projections
By Dave Essler

Dodgers at Washington -145 (Nolasco/Strasburg): Strictly based of Strasburg's last two performances, and in the last one he only threw 66 pitches. One thing that does concern me is that the Nationals saw a ton of Nolasco when he was with the Fish.

Tampa Bay -120 at Toronto: Since Price hasn't been the same since coming off the DL one might assume he's not backable, but this is the best price (no pun intended) we might see on him. He's faced Houston twice and the White Sox, so I'm not sure how much we can really put into his recent numbers. Strikeouts down and flyballs up. If the roof's open, over perhaps.

Yankees at Boston (-145) Price/Doubront: Andy just isn't someone we can bet on and Boston typically wears him out. It'll be interesting to see what the Yankees put out for a lineup, but Boston in Fenway on a Friday night is tough to fade.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-145):Liriano/Leake- I have sworn off betting on or against the Reds, and I mean it. Simply because Leake is a great hitting pitcher, I often look at overs in his games, but he's been too good lately to fade. Is this about the time last season the Pirates woke up, or is their pen just good enough to keep them hanging around.

Phillies at Mets (-135): Kendrick/Hefner-This might be a bigger number if it weren't "The Mets". Kendrick keeps the ball on the ground and Hugh Hefner just doesn't give up runs, so under is the probably play here.

Baltimore at Texas (-140) : Chen/Holland-This number might be a little higher, but Chen just beat the Rangers badly and it's hard to say what the break will do. Usually looking for the reverse to happen, and Holland was hit hard at Baltimore before shutting down the Tigers Saturday. It's probably safe to assume that in the heat of Arlington the ball will travel, so I don't look for a pitchers' duel. If somehow the total comes out at 9 I might play the over, but not at 9.5

Detroit (-135) at Kansas City: Sanchez-Santana- This is when I thought, in the heat in KC, that Santana would suffer, and it might be starting to show. He's given up three or more earned runs in four straight starts, and although his K's are up that's a sign over trying to over-pitch, IMO. I really have always thought Sanchez was over valued, and the list of teams he's beaten is not a who's-who of offenses. So, I like the Royals and the over, somewhat, and again, not at anything over 9.

Miami at Milwaukee (-160): Turner/Lohse: Kyle got us an easy win Sunday in Arizona and comes right back Friday, as many #1's that aren't in the AS game will. I am starting to like the Fish now that they're healthy, and this could be another game that goes over if the roof is open in Milwaukee, because we may see a smaller number based on Lohse's recent performance and that fact that it IS Miami.

Cleveland at Minnesota (-110) Kazmir-Pelfrey: Both teams played pretty well last week, and with the rest I have to like the Twins here, since they do depend so heavily on having both Mauer and Doumit (who is MUCH better hitting right handed) in the game.

Seattle (-130) at Houston Saunders/Norris: ONLY because it's Houston should the number be this low, but I will back Norris at home most every time. I do know Saunders has been pitching well, but he's still Joe Saunders who is not with the Angels or Arizona for a reason.

San Diego at St. Louis (-180) Westbrook/Marquis: After everyone watched the Cardinal ruin our Cubs RL bet Sunday night, they'll be quick to take the Cardinals, and since we don't lay this kind of money, we won't. I do not like RL favorites for one reason--they do not get the ninth at bat at home. That automatically eliminates 11% of our at bats, which usually means they need one or two crooked innings and the visitors not to score. All too often the home team DOES get a decent lead and throw in ANYONE out of the pen to eat up some innings and of course give up some runs. Got to be careful with those.

Cubs at Colorado (-145) (Samardija-De La Rosa): Welp, are the Cubs and Kevin Gregg off the list again? Maybe, but because everyone saw the meltdown on ESPN there's probably more value to them than there would have been if they'd won that game. Here's what I love about De La Rosa. He's only given up one HR in Coors Field this season. I almost hope it's hot in Denver and inflates this total so we can play the under.

Arizona at San Francisco (-140) (Kennedy/Gaudin) Have we ridden the Gaudin train long enough or should we stay on? Kennedy comes back after having made us money Sunday against the Brewers, but what I really like here is the Giants pen at home. They are MUCH better (as you would expect in the bigger park) than on the road. Huge series to start the 2H here. Have to like the Giants with the rest and perhaps more momentum right now.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, July 19

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

There are plenty of trends that favor Tampa Bay when they travel north of the border this weekend to take on the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays arguably the hottest team in baseball are on a 12-2 tear this July. The Jays still trying to find a solution to their woes are on a 4-8 skid this month, 7-13 slide since their season high eleven game win streak. Rays always finding ways to knock off Jays are on a smart 19-9 stretch vs Toronto with a deeper dive into our baseball betting database showing Tampa a solid 14-2 last sixteen vs Toronto including a perfect 7-0 playing in Jays backyard handing the ball to lefty David Price (3-5, 3.94 ERA) who gets the call Friday. However, being a contrarian in this spot can pay off. Rays are on an 0-3 skid opening a series w/Price, 1-4 on the road following a shutout win the previous game. The Jays meanwhile have flourished opening a series in home surroundings posting an 11-4 record. A hidden betting nugget within that mark, Jays are a perfect 7-0 at home in game-one of a series off a road trip split between 4-0 vs a southpaw starter, 3-0 a righty.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, July 19

Friday's National League Betting Notes and Tips
By Covers.com

Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (-152, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Nats starter Stephen Strasburg was torched for seven runs on five hits and four walks over two innings of work in an 8-3 loss to the Miami Marlins his last time out.

Cold batting stat: Nats SS Ian Desmond is just 3-for-16 with six strikeouts in his career versus Dodgers SP Ricky Nolasco.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: The Dodgers are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.


Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (-117, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Phils starter Kyle Kendrick is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts versus the Mets this season.

Hot batting stat: Phillies rookie Domonic Brown is 4-for-4 with one homer and five RBIs versus Hefner.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Mets are 1-6 in SP Jeremy Hefner's last seven starts vs. National League East.


Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-114, 8)


Hot pitching stat: The Pirates have won SP Francisco Liriano's last four starts.

Cold batting stat: Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen is hitting just .211 (8-for-38) in his career against Reds SP Mike Leake.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and clear skies. Winds will blow from right field to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 19-7-5 in the last 31 meetings.


Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers (-142, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Brewers starter Kyle Lohse is 3-0 in his last three home starts.

Hot batting stat: Marlins IF Placido Polanco is 11-for-31 (.355) in his career versus Lohse.

Weather: Retractable roof could be closed due to a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1 in the Brewers' last eight games overall.


San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals (-170, 9)

Cold pitching stat: The Padres are 0-4 in SP Jason Marquis' last four starts.

Cold batting stat: San Diego OF Carlos Quentin is 2-for-14 (.143) in his career versus Cards' SP Jake Westbrook.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-80s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Padres are 0-8 in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.


Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies (-141, 9)

Hot pitching stat: The Rockies are 4-0 in SP Jorge De La Rosa's last four starts vs. National League Central foes.

Hot batting stat: Cubs OF Alfonso Soriano has blasted seven of his 16 home runs this season in July.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-70s and a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow from right field to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Colorado.


Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-118, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: The Diamondbacks have lost seven of SP Ian Kennedy's last nine outings.

Hot batting stat: Giants 1B Brandon Belt has four home runs against Arizona this season. He does not have more than one homer against any other team.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-50s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to center field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 13-3 in the Diamondbacks' last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, July 19

Friday's American League Betting Notes and Tips
By Covers.com

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (128, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rays lefty David Price has a 1.08 ERA in his three starts since returning from the DL.

Hot batting stat: Jays slugger Jose Bautista is batting .353 with four homers in 34 career at-bats versus Price.

Weather: Roof could be closed due to a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Key betting note: The Rays are 7-0 in Price's last seven road starts vs. Blue Jays.


New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-145, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: Yanks starter Andy Pettitte owns a 5.35 ERA in his last six starts and has surrendered 49 hits in 37 innings during that span.

Hot batting stat: Red Sox veteran slugger David Ortiz is 21-for-56 versus Pettitte in his career.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The Yankees are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Boston.


Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-135, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rangers starter Derek Holland is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 28 2-3 innings over his last four starts.

Hot batting stat: Orioles slugger Chris Davis' major league-leading 37 homers tied the AL record for the most before the All-Star break, set by Reggie Jackson in 1969.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow in from right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Rangers are 24-6 in Holland's last 30 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.


Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (120, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Facing the Tigers for the first time with Kansas City, starter Ervin Santana was 4-1 with a 2.65 ERA in his last seven starts against them as a former member of the Los Angeles Angels.

Hot batting stat: Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera leads the majors in average (.365), RBIs (95) and is second in home runs (30). He's hit .397 in his last 16 games at Kansas City.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s and a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings in Kansas City.


Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (111, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Mariners starter Joe Saunders went 0-4 with an 11.25 ERA in his first five road starts, but has since gone 3-1 with a 1.26 ERA in five starts away from Safeco Field.

Hot batting stat: The Mariners' 37 homers and .481 slugging percentage since June 20 are the best in the majors.

Weather: Retractable roof could be closed due to a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Key betting note: The Mariners are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings.


Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (105, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Indians starter Scott Kazmir surrendered three earned runs or less in each of his last five starts and beat Kansas City on Saturday while allowing two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Hot batting stat: Twins 3B Jamey Carroll is 7-for-12 (.583) in his career versus Kazmir.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to center field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The Twins are 0-4 in SP Mike Pelfrey's last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.


Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels (-131, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Oakland has a 2.76 staff ERA in winning 12 of 17 since last losing a series at Seattle from June 21-23.

Hot batting stat: Angels starter Jered Weaver has thrown 18 straight scoreless innings versus Oakland.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-70s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Athletics are 9-2 in SP A.J. Griffin's last 11 starts vs. American League West.

Interleague

Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox (115, 8.5)


Hot pitching stat: Braves starter Tim Hudson has posted back-to-back wins after failing to pick up a victory in his previous 10 starts.

Hot batting stat: Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman is hitting a hearty .433 with runners in scoring position.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and a slight 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 12-3-1 in Chicago SP John Danks' last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record

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