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MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 13

MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 13

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers

All eyes will be on Comerica Park Saturday as Detroit ace Max Scherzer takes his next shot at matching Roger Clemens' 14-0 start from 1986. The hurler looking to extend an 18-game undefeated streak with his 14th win of the season has allowed two or less runs in eleven of his eighteen starts. Detroit backers spoiled by Scherzer’s past success cashing 15-of-18 tickets including 8-of-9 in front of the friendly home crowd, undefeated in regular season vs Texas as a member of Tigers (3-0, 5-1 TSR) must brace themselves as they'll be laying a lofty number in this one. According to the current betting market, the Tigers are as high as $1.85 favorite depending on locale. Texas will counter with lefty Derek Holland. Although Holland's accomplishments are minor compared to what Scherzer brings to the table, Rangers and their southpaw present a formidable challenge to Tigers and Scherzer extending the winning streak. Texas has actually done well on the road this season with Holland winning 8 of his 10 starts. Couple that with the fact Rangers have won Holland's last five starts vs Tigers, are 4-0 as underdogs after losing the first game of a road series, 3-0 on the road w/Holland following a loss the previous night an upset could be in the making.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 13

Milwaukee at Arizona: Preview & Pick

Two pitchers in their first season with new teams will match pitches tonight, while also looking to match zeroes on the scoreboard. Such an event has been a common occurrence in the first half of the 2013 season for both hurlers.

With regard to the baseball betting aspects of this matchup, the Diamondbacks come in as -135 home favorites, according to the current baseball betting odds at Bovada, with a run total of 8.5.

Arizona will offer righthander Randall Delgado as its starter this evening, making just his sixth start of the season, bringing a 1-3 record and 3.82 ERA to the mound. Delgado has had better performances under the lights than in the daylight this season.

His counterpart for Milwaukee will be fellow righthander Kyle Lohse, who has a 5-6 mark on the year and 3.47 ERA. After getting off to a slow start due partly to a late free agent signing by the Brewers, Lohse has especially thrived on the road since the start of June. In four outings away from Miller Park, he is amazingly just 1-0, despite having an ERA of 1.25 in those contests.

Those away numbers shouldn’t be too surprising to the baseball betting community, since in the 10 games he has started on the road this year, the Under has cashed eight times. In addition, when he is facing another righty, like tonight, the Under is still impressive at 7-4.

Delgado has certainly been no slouch when it comes to keeping runs from crossing the plate, especially in front of home crowds. That trend dates back to his days with the Braves, and has continued at spacious Chase Field.

For instance, all three of the Arizona games that Delgado has started this year have gone under, and in his two-year career, the Under has been money 13 of 17 times, with two of those contests ending in a push.

What Delgado has done is not unique on the Diamondbacks in 2013, with the team compiling a 20-9-1 when the team has been a home favorite of less than -150. The baseball betting numbers are even better when you narrow the focus to just games in which the total was over 8. In those instances, the Under is 17-6.

Just facing a righthander has meant the Under has recently been a wise baseball betting option with Arizona. Such an approach has been a winner seven of the last eight times the team has faced one under the lights at home.

When you have one of the starters in a groove (at least from a baseball betting aspect) with the Under, it should catch your attention. When both starters are in that mode, it’s time to jump in and make the free MLB pick

Play Arizona-Milwaukee Under 8.5

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 13

Saturday's MLB Betting Notes and Tips

National League

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves (-129, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Reds starter Homer Bailey was hit hard Monday in his first start since his July 2 no-hitter against the Giants, surrendering four runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-3 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers.

Cold batting stat: The Braves’ roster is hitting .218 against Bailey with three extra-base hits - all doubles - in 78 at-bats.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow in from left field at 8 mph.

Key betting stat: Braves are 7-0 in SP Mike Minor's last seven Saturday starts.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-163, 7)

Hot pitching stat: The Dodgers' bullpen has a 0.73 ERA in the last eight games.

Cold batting stat: Rockies slugger Carlos Gonzalez, who leads the NL with 25 home runs, struck out in all four of his at-bats Friday.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting stat: Dodgers are 6-0 in SP Zack Greinke's last six home starts.

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (117, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Cubs starter Matt Garza has yielded just one earned run in each of his last four starts - all victories.

Cold batting stat: Cards star Carlos Beltran is 0-for-7 lifetime against Garza.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies. Winds will blow in from right field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: The Cardinals are 20-3 in SP Lance Lynn's last 23 starts against NL Central foes.

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (-127, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: 20-year-old Marlins starter Jose Fernandez, who is the youngest All-Star in franchise history, leads all rookie pitchers in ERA (2.83).

Hot batting stat: Marlins SS Adeiny Hechavarria is batting .442 (19-for-43) during his career-high 11-game hitting streak.

Weather: Roof could be closed due to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Key betting stat: The Nationals are 0-9 in SP Dan Haren's last nine starts.

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates (-146, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Pirates SP A.J. Burnett has struggled with his control, issuing multiple walks in each of his last six outings.

Cold batting stat: Mets 3B David Wright has struggled against Burnett, going 3-for-18 with eight strikeouts.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and partly skies. Winds will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting stat: The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 games following a loss.

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-106, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Brewers starter Kyle Lohse pitched well in his last outing versus Arizona, allowing one run over six innings in a no-decision.

Cold batting stat: Diamondbacks 2B Aaron Hill is 0-for-7 in the series after collecting hits in five of his previous six contests.

Weather: Roof could be closed due to extreme temperatures.

Key betting stat: The under is 12-0 in Lohse's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (-112, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Giants starter Tim Lincecum is 11-6 with a 2.34 ERA in 24 career starts against the Padres, including 1-1 with a 1.32 ERA in two starts this season.

Hot batting stat: Padres RF Chris Denorfia is a career .340 hitter in 50 games against San Francisco.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-60s and mostly clear skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 3 mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 6-0 in umpire Mark Wegner's last six games behind home plate.

American League

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (-124, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Twins starter Samuel Deduno was tagged for five runs in 10 hits in a loss at Tampa Bay on Monday.

Hot batting stat: Minnesota's Ryan Doumit is 6-for-9 with a home run against Yankees hurler Phil Hughes.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow in from right field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: Twins are 6-1 in their last seven Saturday games.

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-142, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: O's starter Jason Hammel is 0-3 over his last seven starts, surrendering 10 home runs in that span.

Hot batting stat: Orioles 1B Chris Davis (35) needs two home runs to equal the AL record for most homers in the first half, set by Oakland's Reggie Jackson in 1969.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.

Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (-227, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Astros starter Dallas Keuchel took the loss on July 1, allowing five runs and eight hits over 4 2/3 innings in his first career appearance against Tampa Bay.

Hot batting stat: Houston OF J.D. Martinez is 9-for-21 with four RBIs in his last five contests.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting stat: The Rays are 12-2 in their last 14 overall.

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians (-149, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Indians starter Scott Kazmir has surrendered only six earned runs and 16 hits in 24 2/3 innings over his last four outings.

Hot batting stat: Royals 3B Miguel Tejada is batting .406 (13-for-32) against Kazmir.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-70s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow in from right field at 7 mph.

Key betting stat: The Royals are 5-0 in their last five when playing the second game of a series.

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-156, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers hurler Max Scherzer's 18-game unbeaten streak to begin the season is the fourth-longest such run in the majors since 1916.

Hot batting stat: Detroit DH Victor Martinez is batting .446 with nine RBIs and 10 runs scored during his 14-game hitting streak.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 7 mph.

Key betting stat: The Tigers are 36-15 in Scherzer's last 51 starts.

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics (-130, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Sox starter Jon Lester is limping into the break with only two quality starts in his last 10 outings. He is also coming off a rough performance in which he was charged with five runs in five innings in an 11-4 loss at Seattle on Monday.

Hot batting stat: Sox 1B Mike Napoli has five hits and six RBI in 13 AB versus Oakland this season.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-60s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: The Athletics are 0-5 in their last five Saturday games.

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (+102, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Angels ace Jered Weaver has been sensational in his last three starts, allowing a total of two runs over 20 2/3 innings.

Hot batting stat: Seattle 3B Kyle Seager extended his hitting streak to 12 games Friday with a leadoff homer in the second inning.

Weather: Roof should be open. Temperatures in the high-60s and clear skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 8 mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 12-1 in the Mariners' last 13 home games.


Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies - Game 1 (-132, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Phillies starter Jonathan Pettibone owns a 3-1 mark with a 2.45 ERA at home this year.

Hot batting stat: Philadelphia CF Ben Revere went 2-for-4 on Thursday to extend his hitting streak to nine games.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: The under is 7-0 in the White Sox's last seven Saturday games.

Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies - Game 2 (-132, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Philies starter John Lannan has won two of his last three starts, including a triumph over Washington on Monday in which he scattered four hits over eight scoreless innings.

Hot batting stat: The Sox exploded for 22 runs in their three-game series versus the Tigers as they took two of three from their AL Central foes.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: The White Sox are 2-8 in SP Hector Santiago's last 10 starts on grass.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 13

Primetime Betting Notes
By Chris David

Kansas City at Cleveland

Betting Notes

-- Cleveland beat Kansas City 3-0 on Friday, scoring all three runs in the 7th inning.
-- Prior to Friday's result, the Royals and Indians split their first six meetings, with the home team going 2-1 in each series. Make a note that the vistor won Game 1 in those series but Cleveland snapped that trend yesterday.
-- The 'over' has gone 4-3 in the seven meetings
-- The Indians are 5-2 in Kazmir's seven home starts, losing both games by a combined three runs
-- Guthrie has seen the 'under' go 3-1 in his last four road starts
-- The Royals are 9-16 against lefthanders

N.Y. Mets at Pittsburgh

Betting Notes

-- The Pirates have won four of five against the Mets this season. On Friday, the Bucs beat the Mets 3-2 in extra innings. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for New York.
-- The Mets have won 33% (8-16) of their games against National League Central opponents. -- Torres is replacing Matt Harvey, who is dealing with a blister on his finger. This will be his first start of the year after going 0-1 with a 0.51 ERA in 10 relief appearances.
-- Burnett will be making second start off the DL after losing at the Cubs 4-3 last Sunday. Pittsburgh is just 6-9 with Burnett starting this season but four of the wins came at home. The 'under' is 6-2 in his eight home starts and 10-5 overall.
-- New York has watched the 'over' go 49-36 on the season, which includes a 26-16 record on the road. The 'over' has gone 10-2 in the last 12.
-- Pittsburgh has watched the 'under' go 30-18 at home, 6-0 the last six games.

St. Louis at Chicago

Betting Notes

-- The Cardinals have gone 5-3 against the Cubs this season, which includes Friday's 3-2 victory. Including yesterday's result, the 'under' has cashed in six straight meetings between the pair.
-- St. Louis has gone 13-5 with Lynn on the mound, but just 1-2 the last three. On the road, the Cards are 5-4 with Lynn. He's started against the Cubs six times and has gone 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA.
-- Garza has won his previopus four starts, three of the victories coming on the road. During this span, he's allowed a total of four earned runs and lasted seven innings in each outing. Chicago has gone 7-3 with Garza starting, which includes a 2-1 mark at home.
-- The Cubs haven't dropped back-to-back games at Wrigley Field since June 12.

Washington at Miami

Betting Notes

-- In Friday's opener, the Marlins posed an eye-opening 8-3 win over the Nationals, handing Stephen Strasburg the worst loss of his career.
-- Washington had won five of six against Miami this season, all five by two ore more runs, before last night's blowout loss.
-- The Nationals are 4-12 with Haren this season, which includes nine straight losses. To Haren's defense, if you can make one, the Nationals are scoring 2.69 runs per game in his starts.
-- Miami has gone 3-1 when it's listed as a favorite with Fernandez on the hill.
-- The Marlins have gone 5-2 in Fernandez's last seven starts, 4-0 at home during this run. The 'under' has cashed in all of his last four starts.
-- Prior to last night's easy 'over' ticket, the Nationals saw the 'under' cash in four straight.

Colorado at Los Angeles

Betting Notes

-- The Dodgers and Rockies have met 11 times this season and Colorado holds a 6-5 edge.
-- Last night, Colorado beat Los Angeles 3-0, which snapped the Dodgers' five-game winning streak.
-- Despite the loss, Los Angeles has gone 16-4 since June 22. During this stretch, the team hasn't lost back-to-back games and 15 of the victories have been by two ore more runs.
-- Chatwood has only faced the Dodgers once, which occured on July 3 and he was tagged for 11 hits (2 HRs) and five earned runs.
Greinke has won four straigh starts and the team is 6-1 in his last seven appearances. Los Angeles is also 5-0 in his five starts at home this season, winning four by two or more.
-- The Dodgers have the best 'over' record (29-19) at home this season but the 'under' has cashed in the first two games of this series.
-- Total players should note that L.A. has been shutout five times this season before last night's bagel. In the first five instances, the 'over' cashed in the very next game while the Dodgers went 3-2.
-- The Rockies have seen the 'under' go 5-1 in their last six games

Texas at Detroit

Betting Notes

-- Detroit beat Texas 7-3 on Friday, scoring seven runs in the first two innings. Bad beat goes out to 'over' players who had a number of 9.5 runs. -- Before last night's outcome, Texas was 7-3 in its last 10 meetings against Detroit, which included a 2-1 record this season.
-- Texas has gone 12-6 with Holland on the hill and that includes an impressive 8-2 road mark in 10 starts. In 13 games under the lights with Holland, Texas is 10-3.
-- The Rangers lead the majors as the best 'under' club (54-35) and the last three games have gone 'under'
-- Texas has scored four combined runs during its recent three-game slide -- The Tigers have gone 15-3 with Sherzer on the hill, 8-1 at home. The lone loss (7-5) came on May 15 against Houston, when Detroit was installed as a minus-350 favorite, the biggest 'chalk' in MLB this season
-- Detroit has won seven straight with Sherzer and run-line bettors have watched the Tigers win six of those games by two or more. In the 15 wins, 12 have been by two or more runs.
-- The Tigers have gone 9-12 against lefthanders

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 13

Saturday MLB Thoughts
By Dave Essler

Cincinnati-Atlanta: Bailey has had his regression game as most pitchers do after a no-hitter, and because he simply owns both McCann and Uggla, and if Heyward is out, I lean Reds. Reed Johnson (Heywards' replacement) is 0-9 against Bailey. As good as Minor is, he's a flyball pitcher and has benefited from Turner Field, so I also lean under here.

Cardinals-Cubs: Lynn hasn't given up a home run in three straight starts, but he's thrown over 100 pitches in all three games. This looks like one of those "sooner or later" games. Garza has been a freak show lately, but he too has thrown a lot of pitches. Have to wonder if the Wrigley total might be too high. Coming into Friday the Cubs had won five of six, and if Holliday is still hobbled, no chance of trusting the Cardinals pen here.

Mets-Pirates: One has to wonder how much Burnett has in the way of strength, coming of the DL and only throwing 66 pitches against the Cubs. And Torres coming from the pen, even with impressive numbers, certainly bring the Mets pen into play. Almost talked myself into the Mets first five innings here.

Miami-Washington: I just love backing Fernandez and hate backing Haren. There is no chance of taking the Nationals here, barring something unforeseen, and it looks like at BetOnline the Fish opened as favorites, and IMO for a reason.

Rockies-Dodgers: Clearly there's going to be a price to be paid for Grienke that I'm probably not willing to pay. However, the Rockies pounded him in Colorado last week, and as you guys know I look for the pitcher to make the adjustments. Chatwood can be better than advertised, and the Dodgers pounded HIM in Colorado last week as well, which might lean me to believe the total will be a bit too high, especially in Dodger Stadium.

Giants-Padres: I suppose Timmy may be somewhat "back" but he's still given up three or more earned runs in four straight starts, so I just cannot justify taking him on the road against a team that at the very least knows him as well as most. With Volquez having exactly one good start at home in the last two months or so, it may be hard to go that route as well. With those things in mind, perhaps this is a higher scoring game than one might think.

Milwaukee-Arizona: Delgado is not on the Braves roster for a reason, and not because Atlanta is deep in starting pitchers, either. Lohse is on the Brewers for a reason, and his season-long 1.18 WHIP is something I can't overlook here. Total might be high based on the park, the pitchers, and the teams, however. Can't wrap my head around Delgado, so would take the Brewers if you made me.

Twins-Yankees: We'll have to see what happens between these two Friday, but the Twins ARE going to win a game here. Deduno could be a bit under valued here off the pasting he took in Tampa Bay, and he just faced the Yankees in Minnesota so he might be ahead of the curve a bit. When he's on, he is a groundball pitcher, and when Hughes is not on the ball leaves the yard. This one, to me, all depends on the Twins lineup. If all the LH hitters are in, the RL is a consideration.

Toronto-Baltimore: With Redmond's potential they're giving Hammel a bit too much credit at -150, IMO. Let's not forget that Hammel's WHIP is over 1.40, which is simply not worth that price to me. He can give up the gopher ball with the best of them, so lean Jays and/or Jays RL.

Fausto is .60 cheaper than David Price was on Friday. Seems to me that that's still a bit of an over estimation for someone that's given up three or more runs in seven straight starts. That's especially after Kuechel just faced, and was hammered by, these same Rays. I have to think that Houston gets some here, and that even with some regression so does Tampa Bay, and the unthinkable over in the Trop may be the best play in this game.

Cleveland-Kansas City:
I'd almost rather back the Indians against a LHP this season and almost rather back the Royals against a LHP as well, so I have the immediate lean to the Royals here, obviously pending what happens Friday. Both Kazmir and Guthrie are feast or famine pitchers (to me, anyways) so the advantage may be with the team with more bullpen arms after Friday. That -140 or so is just begging for people to take Cleveland, but IMO Kazmir is simply not worth it.

Detroit-Texas: So when exactly is Max going to lose a game. Even at -170 against the Rangers lineup, they're asking way too much, even to take the Tigers RL, IMO. I'd like to take Holland here, but the biggest issue for me is the 125 pitches he threw last outing, as well as the fact that he often has trouble inducing ground balls. Perhaps this is the sluggfest, but then there's Max, who actually the Rangers have had some success against. Rangers RL and/or over.

Boston-Oakland: I suppose the knee-jerk reaction would be to take Lester at plus-money, but that's exactly why I lean Griffin. In the big park, Boston is probably at somewhat of a disadvantage having to string hits together to score. Oakland or nothing. Sorry Kyle.

Seattle-Angels: Another knee-jerk reaction to Felix at only -110 to ANYONE. Yes, the Angels know him better than anyone, and Weaver has been unhittable lately. However, he did have three straight 100+ pitch games and it is getting warmer, and the last game was 114 pitches. Almost have to think this is NOT a pitchers' duel and may look at the over, simply because at 6.5 a 3-3 game is a winner.

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