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John Deere Classic Betting News and Notes

John Deere Classic Betting News and Notes

John Deere Classic Preview and Picks
By Matt Fargo

For the third time in four weeks, we came painstakingly close to pulling out a win as Jimmy Walker finished T2 at the Greenbrier Classic, joining Bubba Watson (4th) and Phil Mickelson (T2) as missed opportunities. We will keep grinding it out and hope to get into the winner's circle this week.

With the Open Championship on deck for next week, the PGA Tour takes a hit with the field as players are either resting or playing over in Europe this week. The Open Championship is the one Major where players usually are not playing the prior week due to the significant travel time. Players not already in the Open Championship still have a shot to play as one place has been reserved for the leading player, not already exempt, finishing in the top five at the John Deere Classic.

The John Deere Classic has been a mainstay on tour since 1972 and even though this is the 43rd anniversary, the tournament has gone through eight name changes and three courses. The event nearly died on several occasions back in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s but it somehow stayed above water and when John Deere took over the sponsorship in 1999, as it is also the official supplier of equipment throughout the tour, it is a pretty healthy stop on an annual basis.

This is just the 15th year that the TPC at Deere Run has hosted the event which obviously coincides with the sponsor. The course is one of the easiest on the schedule as last year Deere Run ranked 42nd out of 49 courses in difficulty. One of the reasons for that as unlike other tracks, this one has not been lengthened much as only 75 yards has been added since its inception in 2000. Also, the course has only three water hazards throughout.

With the course being easy, the scores are always very low as the winners have carded -20, -22, -26, -20, -16, -18 and -19 the last seven years and no winner has ever finished worse than -16. And that has been with a very light field. There was a 59 scored in the opening round by Paul Goydos three years ago, which was just the fourth ever 59 on tour. This year there are only three players that are ranked in the top 20 of the OWGR, those being Louis Oosthuizen (10th), Steve Stricker (11th) and Keegan Bradley (16th).

Steve Stricker (+600) is the favorite this week and for good reason. He won this event three straight years (2009-2011) so his T5 last season was considered a disappointment. He no doubt loves it here and while he has not played since the U.S. Open, it is hard to disregard his four tops tens in seven starts. Despite the short odds and limited schedule so far, he has to be played here.

Because Stricker is such a big favorite, we are getting good odds down the list including Ryan Moore (+2,500). It has been feast or famine with him this year as he has six missed cuts in 14 medal play events but also has three tops tens. This includes a T7 at the Travelers in his last start. Last year, he made his first start at the John Deere in three years and finished T8.

Brendon de Jonge (+3,000) played well for us last week with a T17 at the Greenbrier and we will include him again this week on a course he can take advantage of. He is a birdie machine as he has 284 of them, good for second on tour and this is a course that allows a lot of them. He has played well here in the past with a T19 last year and consecutive T7 finishes in 2011 and 2010.

Kyle Stanley (+5,000) will be one of the longshot picks this week. He has missed the cut in his last two starts but prior to that, he had three top tens in six starts so has fared better after a very slow start. He finished one shot behind champion Steve Stricker in 2011, good for a solo second and last year he finished T19 following a Sunday 66. With a light field in play, he could break out.

Boo Weekley (+5,000) will be the other longshot taken. He is coming off a missed cut at the Greenbrier after taking time off after the U.S. Open but it needs to be noted that he won the Crown Plaza Invitational at Colonial following a missed cut at the Byron Nelson. Overall, he has four top tens over his last 13 starts. He missed the cut here last year but it was not a good year to begin with. He shot a Friday 63 here in 2010.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the John Deere Classic (all for One Unit)

Steve Stricker (+600)
Ryan Moore (+2,500)
Brendon de Jonge (+3,000)
Kyle Stanley (+5,000)
Boo Weekley (+5,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 26 events: -35.4 Units

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Re: John Deere Classic Betting News and Notes

John Deere Classic Odds -- Stricker a heavy favorite
By: Rick Herron

The PGA Tour moves on to the John Deere Classic in Silvis, Ill., this week after the completion of a crazy week at the Greenbrier Classic.

Going into last Saturday there were 26 players within four shots of the lead. Johnson Wagner shot a 64 that day to take a two shot lead into the final round, but he was not able to hang on after shooting a 73 on Sunday. Wagner finished in a four-way tie for second, which could have been expected considering he did not make the cut in the previous seven straight events.

Jonas Blixt of Sweden overcame a four-shot deficit in the final round by shooting 67 and won the event by two shots. Blixt has had some moments, but he did not have a top-10 finish on the year. It was Blixt's first win on the PGA Tour, and he is the 11th first time winner this year. The win got him into the British Open next week and into Augusta next spring. It meant so much he cried after the victory.

The John Deere Classic is played at the TPC Deere Run, which is a 7,268 yard Par 71 layout.

There are going to be a lot of low scores this week as this course has given up the most birdies on tour in each of the last two years and the weather is supposed to be good for the weekend.

Steve Stricker (6-1) is the favorite and he should be. He won this event three years in a row before finishing four shots back last year, but there is no way we can play him at those Tiger Woods like odds.

Zach Johnson is the defending champion. He shot 64 on Sunday and won the event in a playoff over Troy Matteson. He has also been impressive on this course and at (12-1) he can be a play. Including his win last year Johnson has been in the top three here in three of his last four tries. He has 16 consecutive rounds in the 60s on this golf course, and the price is fair.

Nick Watney (30-1) finished tied for 23rd last week and seemed to get some confidence back in his game. He tied for 13th in this event last year and is 20th on Tour in total driving. If you keep it in the fairway, you can post some low numbers.

We are riding Jordan Spieth (30-1) again. He is talented, and we feel he is going to win soon. Last week, he shot three straight 67s before a final-round 73 where he could not buy a putt. He has seven top-25 finishes and five top-10 finishes on the year. He also was our matchup play last week against Russell Henley and was the winner.

Kyle Stanley (50-1) is another guy who likes this golf course. He was second in 2011 and tied for 19th last year. He has played his last 11 rounds here under par and has three top-10 finishes in his last eight starts.

For our matchup play we are going to go with Johnson (+145) over Stricker. We expect Stricker to be a factor, but with Johnson's great record on this golf course, the price is too good to pass up.

Next week we move on to the British Open at Muirfield in Scotland, and it will be a great event. Muirfield is one of the best golf courses in the world. The list of past winners there is absolutely amazing. We will discuss that next week.

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