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MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, July 10

MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, July 10

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

A pair of port side hurlers are on tap at Citizens Bank Park when Philadelphia and Washington square off in the third game of this four game set. Phillies winning the first two in the series have Cliff Lee toeing the rubber. The lefty compiling a 10-2 record overall with a 2.73 ERA in 18 starts (11-7 TSR) puts a twelve game undefeated streak on the line (8-0, 9-3 TSR). Phillies a solid betting option in this series with Lee posting a 6-3 mark over his nine career starts vs Washington have opened $1.35 favorite. Taking the mound for the Nationals will be southpaw Gio Gonzalez, who has a 6-3 record, 3.14 ERA. In his last three starts, Gonzalez has rewarded backers with three straight victories giving the hurler a 11-7 team start record on the campaign. Gonzalez heads to the hill 3-1 life-time vs Phillies with Washington 4-1 over his five starts. Lee and Phillies present a formidable challenge to Washington, but a few betting angles stand out in favor of Nationals w/Gonzalez. Nats are 6-3 on the road with the hurler, 4-1 w/Gonzalez after a loss the previous night, 4-1 w/Gonzalez in game-three's and the club hits the field 3-0 after losing first two games of a road series, 6-1 last seven after dropping B-2-B games.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, July 10

Reds at Brewers: Preview & Pick

Sharp baseball betting is all about avoiding pitfalls that the average bettor tends to stumble on, which brings us to Wednesday afternoon’s game in Sudstown, as the Milwaukee Brewers close out both a series and homestand against it division rival, the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati is a -153 road favorite, according to the betting odds at Bovada, but it’s the run total of 9 that catches our eye. The main reason is that investing money in a road favorite that has struggled recently away from home base is a risky endeavor, so it’s easier to explore from a baseball handicapping viewpoint how to approach this contest.

The Reds will have Mike Leake start this afternoon, with the righthander looking for a better outing than last time, when he on the losing end of a 4-2 home loss to Seattle. Leake has a 7-4 mark with just a 2.73 ERA.

Milwaukee will send out John Hellweg, who has been underwhelming in his previous two starts, and is likely on a short leash for today’s game. In those two starts, Hellweg has allowed nine runs in just 6 1/3 innings for a 12.79 ERA, with the opposing teams averaging 11 runs per contest—which is a flashing neon sign to those in baseball handicapping.

In Leake’s relatively short career, the Reds are 8-4 in favor of the Over when he starts a road day game, and are 3-1 in that same category when the total is over 8. When he is coming off a start this season in which the Reds allowed more than three runs, the Over is 6-3.

In six of the last seven instances in which the Reds have been the opposing team in the final game of an opponent’s homestand, that getaway game has gone Over.

Hellweg’s stretch of pitching futility is pertinent concerning this afternoon’s clash, because since 2010, the Over is 9-2 when a Brewer pitcher is in the role of home underdog after his last two starts were Over the number. Couple that with the fact that this season, the Brewers have gone Over in 12 of the 17 home day games played at Miller Park, and it looks like a busy day for the scoreboard operator.

Also, since 2011, when Milwaukee closes out a homestand as they do today, the last game in that stretch has a 19-11-2 mark in favor of the Over, including the last three in a row.

Leake has actually done well on the road this season, but it’s his counterpart that may hold the key to this contest going Over. If Hellweg suddenly discovers how to keep runners from crossing the plate, then the Over is doomed. However, if he holds true to form, then the correct baseball handicapping move will be affirmed. That’s why the best MLB Pick to make on this game is

Play Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds Over 9

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, July 10

MLB Odds and Picks - Backing the Bucs despite current skid
By: The Linemakers

LAS VEGAS -- Just when the national media was finally giving the Pirates some credit for going 21 games over .500 and taking first place in the NL Central, they proceeded to take a nose dive and give skeptics plenty of reason to doubt the Bucs have what it takes to make the postseason for the first time since 1992. The '92 season also marks the last time Pittsburgh finished a season with a winning record.

After losing to Oakland 2-1 the past two nights, the Pirates have now tied a season-high four-game losing streak and lost six of their last eight. The cause for their recent skid is almost exactly the same as their last four-game slide when they started the season 1-5 -- including three shutouts -- and only scored five runs total in those six games. In their past four losses, they've only scored six runs.

Regardless of what happens Wednesday, the Pirates will have lost three consecutive series for the first time this season. After winning nine straight games from June 20-30, they went on to lose two out of three to the Phillies and Cubs and then the first two to Oakland, a team they still haven't beaten in 11 all-time meetings.

Trying to halt the losing streak for Pittsburgh tonight is Francisco Liriano (8-3, 2.20 ERA), who started Pittsburgh's last win Friday at Chicago. He went the distance for the first time this season in the 6-2 victory, making it his third straight win and fifth in six starts. In his last four turns, he's allowed only six earned runs in 27.2 innings of work. The left-hander has received a decision in each of the 11 times that he's taken the hill this season, going 8-3.

Oakland left-hander Tommy Milone (8-7, 4.11 ERA) has had a season with multiple highs and lows. Like Liriano, he doesn't get cheated out of decisions. He makes his starts count and Oakland is currently on a run of winning his last three starts, which comes after losing his previous three. In fact, Oakland has been streaky behind Milone all season, winning his first three starts, losing his next five, and winning four heading into the aforementioned streaks.

In Milone's recent outings, he's been the benefactor of lots of Oakland power. Despite giving up 10 earned runs combined in his past three starts, the A's have had his back by scoring 20 runs. In a June 30 start against the Cardinals, he gave up three homers and five runs, but still got the 7-5 win. The A's have gone 4-0 behind Milone during interleague play this season.

Liriano is definitely in better form than Milone right now, but a wager today on Pittsburgh at -135 is simply chasing. The Pirates have to win eventually, right? It's like the guy at the roulette wheel who keeps betting black and doubling up each time he loses to recoup his losses. It can't keep coming up red, right? And then red comes up again, putting the bettor in a massive hole. Should he walk away and lose all that money, or play the odds until at least breaking even?

It's a tough dilemma. If betting Pittsburgh, chance may be on your side, but the bats definitely aren't. Liriano is going to have to pitch one of his better games of the season to win. Oakland has won 10 of their last 13, while Pittsburgh has lost four straight. The price may be a little steep tonight, but the Bucs should find a way to scratch and claw for a win tonight.

Wednesday's selections:

Pirates (Liriano) -135 vs. A's
Dodgers (Hyun-Jin Ryu) -102 at D-backs
Phillies/Nationals UNDER 7.5 (-115)
Indians (Justin Masterson) -140 vs. Blue Jays

Season to date record: 167-164-2 (+854)

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