Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 7

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 7

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Miami at St. Louis
The Marlins look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-4 loss and take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 1-6 in Lance Lynn's last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Miami is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+150)

Game 951-952: Atlanta at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 16.591; Philadelphia (Pettibone) 15.080
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Over

Game 953-954: San Diego at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Erlin) 14.525; Washington (Strasburg) 14.038
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-240); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+200); Under

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hefner) 14.885; Milwaukee (Gorzelanny) 14.123
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-105); Over

Game 957-958: Miami at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 16.710; St. Louis (Lynn) 15.629
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+150); Under

Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 16.926; Cubs (Villanueva) 15.420
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150); N/A

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.483; San Francisco (Gaudin) 16.358
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+155); Over

Game 963-964: Colorado at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Oswalt) 14.963; Arizona (Corbin) 14.428
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+180); Over

Game 965-966: Baltimore at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 15.519; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.975
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135); Under

Game 967-968: Minnesota at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Diamond) 14.224; Toronto (Redmond) 15.402
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Toronto (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-165); Over

Game 969-970: Detroit at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 17.390; Cleveland (Kluber) 14.618
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.406; Tampa Bay (Price) 14.733
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+185); Under

Game 973-974: Oakland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 16.927; Kansas City (Mendoza) 15.550
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Oakland (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-140); Over

Game 975-976: Houston at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Bedard) 13.858; Texas (Grimm) 14.915
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-200); Over

Game 977-978: Boston at LA Angels (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.350; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.332
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Under

Game 979-980: Seattle at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Saunders) 14.639; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.963
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-200); Over

WNBA

Phoenix at Minnesota
The Lynx look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 home games. Minnesota is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7 1/2)

Game 601-602: Chicago at New York (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 111.373; New York 114.995
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 3 1/2; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+1 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Phoenix at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 106.579; Minnesota 120.540
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 14; 170
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 175 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7 1/2); Under

CFL

Edmonton at Hamilton
The Eskimos look to take advantage of a Hamilton team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games against a team with a losing record. Edmonton is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Eskimos favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+7)

Game 427-428: Edmonton at Hamilton (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 112.462; Hamilton 111.921
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 1; 60
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 7; 55
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+7); Over

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 7

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Edmonton +7½ -over HAMILTONFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Everyone loves offense, at least most bettors prefer to bet on a team that can score and often shy away from teams that cannot. In the first week of the CFL, every team went off for some serious offensive stats with the exception of the Eskimos. The 12 points that the Eskies threw up in the fourth quarter last week against the Riders was all “garbage time” points. That lack of offense by Edmonton combined with the Tigercats strong offensive showing has the dog undervalued here. What should not go ignored is that the Eskimos fell behind by a big margin early and were forced to play catch-up in the first game of the year. That’s difficult to do in the middle of the year, let alone in the season opener. It also occurred against Saskatchewan, a team that looks primed to make a serious Grey Cup run after a 2-0 start in which the Riders outscored the opposition 75-39. The Eskies, although they have an unproven QB in Mike Reilly, still have plenty of talent, a decent defense and very good special teams. They will have a better game today and despite what the numbers say, we actually liked what we saw in Reilly. It was his first CFL start in real time and he’ll be much better today against the awful defense of the Tigercats.
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Hamilton lost last week to Toronto but probably deserved a better fate. That said, the Ti-Cats defense is a mess. Missed coverage, big play after big play and 490 yards of Argos offense was too much to overcome for the Tabbies. When your defense can’t stop the marching band, spotting more than a converted TD is risky business. Hamilton’s offense is scary good. They have so many weapons and they could easily go off for another crooked number today. However, the TiCats have proven over the years that they cannot be trusted to win by a margin when asked to do so. They have a long track record of underperforming when they’re supposed to win and that applies here. The Eskimos were embarrassed last week and it’s usually not a good idea to spot this many points to a team that was blown out the previous week. That, too, applies here.

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Bruce Marshall

Oakland vs. Kansas City
Pick: Oakland -1.5

Tough loss for the A's on Saturday, but we still think Oakland is a go-with proposition at the moment as it looks for its 8th win in the last 11 games.  The A's will gladly take their chances against Royals starter Luis Mendoza, who didn't make it past the fourth inning for only the second start this season Tuesday against Cleveland, and has definitely cooled lately as his 5.74 ERA over his last three starts would attest.  Remember, the A's had won five straight in this series prior to Saturday's 4-3 loss, and starter A.J. Griffin is only two starts removed from his first career shutout and complete game (a two-hitter to boot) on June 26 against Cincinnati.

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Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

The Indians and Tigers put the wraps on this three-game division duel Sunday afternoon at Progressive Field where Cory Kluber matches serves with Doug Fister. Kluber takes the mound with a home ERA (2.93) that is nearly 2.5 runs per game better than his road ERA (5.40) this season. On the flip side, Fister has struggled both in this park (1-5) and during the month of July (6-12) in his MLB career team starts. Back the live home dog here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

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Jesse Schule

Miami vs. St. Louis
Pick: Miami +1.5

The Marlins will be looking to avoid the sweep this afternoon in St. Louis, as they lost 4-1 in the series opener, and blew a 4-2 lead in the seventh inning yesterday. While they are tied for the fewest wins in the Major Leagues (32), they have been playing much better lately. In fact they have a winning record since June 10, when Giancarlo Stanton returned to the lineup.

Another reason for the Marlins success, would be 20 year old right-hander Jose Fernandez. The rookie has given the Fish six straight excellent outings, and Miami has won five of those six games. He tossed eight scoreless innings, allowing just two hits in a 4-0 win over the Padres his last time out (I had a parlay with MIA+UNDER in that game).

Fernandez (5-4, 2.72 ERA) allowed three runs (one unearned) on six hits over seven innings in a win over the Cardinals in Miami just a few weeks ago.

Lance Lynn will toe the rubber for the home team, and he's lost consecutive starts. Lynn (10-3, 3.75 ERA) allowed five runs on nine hits over six innings in a loss to the Angels in L.A. his last time out. Prior to that he surrendered four runs on five hits over 7 2/3 innings in a 4-3 loss to the Astros. Both those losses came on the road though, and he's been a lot sharper at home. He's 6-0 with a 2.42 ERA at Busch Stadium this year.

The Fish tagged him for seven runs on nine hits over just five innings in the only previous meeting this season.

This has all the makings of a pitcher's duel, and with Lynn looking less than invincible in recent starts, I'm giving the edge to the underdog Marlins.

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Jimmy Boyd

St Louis Cardinals -170

It is no secret that Miami is one of the worst teams in baseball. They are 21 games below .500 and have a .231 team batting average on the road this season. They are up against a Cardinals team that is batting .276 at home and scoring 4.5 runs per game.

Lance Lynn has been pitching lights out at home this season. In his eight home starts he has a 6-0 record and a 2.42 ERA. The Cardinals as a team are 7-1 in those eight starts. Jose Fernandez will get the start for Miami and his numbers on the road come nowhere close to comparing to Lynn's. Fernandez has a 2-4 record in eight road starts with a 4.12 ERA. The Marlins are simply outmatched from every angle in this game.

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Jeff Alexander

Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +100

Colorado's Oswalt has been atrocious in 3 starts (7.87 ERA), losing each by at least 2 runs. Arizona's Pat Corbin has been lights out all season (2.49 ERA). Arizona has won 15 of his 17 starts with the wins coming by an average of 2.9 runs. The D-backs have won each of Corbin's last 4 starts versus Colorado with the last 3 wins coming by 2 runs or more.

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Dave Price

Los Angeles Dodgers -173

I took the Giants yesterday (and cashed) as I liked the advantage they had on the mound with Bumgarner. However, the advantage clearly lies with Kershaw and the Dodgers today. The Giants have dropped 10 of 12 while the Dodgers have won 11 of 14, and San Francisco has its hands full as it goes up against the best lefty in baseball. Kershaw has a 1.93 ERA on the season, and he's 10-4 with an ERA of 1.34 in 19 starts versus the Giants. The Dodgers have won 3 of his last 4 starts overall versus the Giants and 5 of his last 7 starts in San Francisco. The Giants have dropped each of Chad Gaudin's last 2 starts, and he's 0-2 with an ERA of 10.12 in 2 career starts versus the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles.

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Rob Vinciletti

New York Yankees -131

We are playing against Baltimore and any road dog that is off a 1 run road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs and managed 10 or more hits if they played error free ball and are playing a home team off a 1 run home favored win and scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits with no more that one error. These road dogs are on a 1-10 slide since 2007. Baltimore has lost 3 straight on the road off a 1 run road loss and 4 of 5 in July. The Yankees are off a nice come from behind win on Saturday and have won all 6 in July so far. They have H Kuroda going and he pitched a gem in his last home game vs the Orioles going 9 shut out innings. He has a solid 2.16 home era this season which is better than Baltimore starter J. Hammel who has a 4.45 road era and a 4.59 era vs the Yankees. Look for New York to win this one.

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GamePlan

New York Yankees -123

The Yankees go for the sweep today as they look for revenge against the O's after being swept last week against them. Kuroda goes for the Yankees and he has been their best pitcher over the last two years. He has had a few extra days rest after the Yankees took some per-cautionary measures with an injury. Kuroda is 38-34 in his career when working on extra rest. A ton of those losses were when he did not get run support.

The Yankees face Jason Hammel who has a 4.59 ERA in his career against the Yankees. Kuroda has a 3.54 ERA in six career starts against the O's. Kuroda pitches great at Yankee stadium as he is 16-8 in career with a 2.57 ERA.

O's are 0-6 in Hammel's last 6 starts Yankees are 6-1 in Kurodas last 7 home starts. Take the Yankees today.

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Art Aronson

Red Sox vs. Angels
Play: Under 8

John Lackey (6-5, 2.81 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Lackey gave up one earned run off six hits with one walk over eight frames in a win over the soft-hitting Friars on Tuesday. The veteran has won back-to-back starts, giving up just three runs vs. 18 K's in that span. Lackey will be opposed by Jered Weaver (2-4, 3.79 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits while striking out five over seven innings in his team's eventual 5-1 victory over the Cardinals on Tuesday. Over his last 14 innings of work the big right-hander has struck out 11 while permitting just two runs (note that in five starts at home this year, Weaver sports a very respectable 3.48 ERA home record). With these two red-hot and experienced hurlers facing off in the finale of this three-game set, everything points to runs being at a premium; consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 7

Jeffrey Brandes

Cincinnati Reds -1½ +110

Pitchers:
SEATTLE MARINERS: JOE SAUNDERS (L) ERA: 4.74 W/L: 6-8
CINCINNATI REDS: BRONSON ARROYO (R) ERA: 3.50 W/L: 7-6

JOE SAUNDERS 0-2 with a 6.04 ERA vs. the Reds in four career starts.

BRONSON ARROYO went all six innings in an 8-1 win over the Giants that was called because of rain on Monday. He allowed just two hits and one run. Bronson Arroyo is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in four career games against the Mariners, including one in which he pitched three innings for his only career save.

Cincinnati will head on the road for the remainder of the first half of the season, visiting Milwaukee for three games starting Monday and then Atlanta for four leading into the All-Star break. Look for them to take the measure of the pesky Mariners before they hit the road. The difference in ERA's between today's starting pitchers against their foe makes this a run line play.

Key Trends:
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road

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Jim Feist

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco is home this weekend after a brutal trip, a 10-game road trip and they ended with a losing record. The Dodgers have been on a tear, led by their dynamic rookie, and have ace Clayton Kershaw (2.08 ERA) going. He is 10-4 with a 1.33 ERA in his career against the rival Giants! And the Dodgers are 43-20 in Kershaws last 63 starts as a favorite. Play the LA Dodgers.

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Sports Experts 17

Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
Pick: Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota Lynx are coming of a terrible loss in LA for the second time in a row in less than a week. Today they face a mercury team that won their last 5 games. WNBA is a different way to see basketball, runs don´t come very often and today we have a run of 5 games that after Lynx terrible loss, the Mercury girls will pay the price of this big loss.

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Dave Essler

SF Giants +1.5 +100

This one is a pretty obvious bet for me. I do indeed know that Kershaw's numbers against the Giants individually are very good, and that he'll generally pitch deep, and that he's a great hitting pitcher. However, the other argument can be made that the Giants know the book on him as well as anyone, and in a game that should (according to the posted total) stay low scoring, I simply can't pass up the automatic last at bat with a free run. Gaudin's a RP that may not pitch deep, but in limited games at home he's been solid. And he's done well in a few road starts, so we can assume that because the Dodgers couldn't get that extra run FOR us yesterday that perhaps they're going into a hitting funk again. Even the runs they DID get were for the most part unearned. I just see too much value in taking this at -110, figuring the Giants should take this series, and that Gaudin being rested may well be a good thing here. If he's been on the DL for a month, I might think differently, and surely trust SF's pen better, should it come to that.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 7

Craig Davis

My free plays are doing much better than my paid releases, including last night's 10-1 Arizona win over the Rockies as a run line play... easy money.

So today I'm not only going to win my free play but I'm going to nail my 75-dime selection as we head to a new week in July.

Today's free play is a totals play on the Yankees and Orioles to go over the posted total.

Don't like either pitcher today and expect a lot of runs in the Bronx. Not surprising, the total is 9 at the time of this writing.

Baltimore now trails the Yankees by a 1/2 game for second place in the AL East after sweeping the Yankees less than a week ago in Baltimore.

Since then the O's have dropped four of five including dropping the first two of this series with the Yankees. Chris Davis continues, however, to stay hot against the Bronx Bombers, nailing a two-run homer in the first inning Saturday... and now has six dingers while batting .342 in 11 games with the Yanks so far this year.

Hiroki Kuroda will go for New York, and his last start came on June 30th, when he hurt his hip and allowed 4 runs to the same Orioles he is facing today.

Jason Hammel (7-5, 5.19 ERA) is 0-3 with a 5.55 ERA over his last six starts - all losses by the Orioles - and ranks near the bottom of baseball with 18 home runs allowed.

In fact, Baltimore is known for the long ball from both sides. They lead the league with 119 homers hit... but also lead the league in most allowed at 117.

This game is going OVER the posted total.

2♦ BALTIMORE-N.Y. YANKEES OVER

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Jeff Benton

Sunday freebie is the Braves over the Phillies.

Atlanta clubbed their way to a 13-4 win last night, as the Phils not only lost big, but they also lost their big man Ryan Howard with inflammation in his left knee for the next 15 days.

The Braves continue to lead the way in the N.L. East, and they have won 6 of the past 9 series meetings against the Phillies.

Jonathan Pettibone has pitched well in his first season with Philly, but Atlanta starter Kris Medlen has been even better, as Medlen is on a 5-1 run his last 6 starts with a 2.50 ERA along the way.

Philadelphia just cannot seem to put together a string of wins, and they are just 3-4 their last 7 games overall.

Pettibone is making his first start against Atlanta, and while he may keep his team in this one for a while, I do not see the Phillies breaking through against Medlen.

Braves to take the rubber game of this three game set today.

1♦ ATLANTA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 7

Brad Wilton

Your Sunday comp play is the Diamondbacks on the Run Line over the Rockies.

This play is all about going against Roy Oswalt, and going with the Snakes in their home ball park.

Oswalt is off to an 0-3 start in his Colorado tenure, and all 3 of the losses have come by 2 runs or more, as Oswalt's ERA is a rather unimposing 7.88.

Arizona is a phenomenal 15-2 when Patrick Corbin starts, and now that he is finally off a loss, it is time to jump back on his bandwagon. Corbin has not lost at Chase Field this season, going 5-0 with a 1.63 ERA.

The Diamondbacks have won the first two of this three game set, outscoring the Rockies 16-1 along the way, strong chance that the D-Backs not only win, but win big in this one again.

Let's ride with a Run Line play on Arizona in this one.

3♦ ARIZONA -1.5

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 7

Brett Atkins

My freebie for tonight is on the Tampa Bay Rays, who should have no trouble cruising to an easy win - their fourth straight overall - over the Chicago White Sox.

I love the way Rays veteran David Price Price returned from the disabled list in Cy Young-like fashion, striking out 10 Houston Astros in seven innings of three-hit ball. He was overpowering to say the least, as he did not allow a baserunner past first base in the 8-0 rout, his first win since April 28.

Today he faces John Danks, who, yes, showed durability by pitching into the eighth inning on Tuesday, against the Orioles, and helped end Chicago's five-game losing streak. But the left-hander is 2-5 with a 4.38 ERA on th year, and has struggled to find consistency throught the campaign.

Take the Rays in this one, and make sure it's on the Run Line and it's Price vs. Danks on automated ticket

1♦ TAMPA BAY -1.5

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 7

Chris Jordan

My free winner for today will be the team that let me down yesterday on the Run Line, as this will be the day the Nationals win by huge margins - mark my words - over the San Diego Padres.

And with the Nationals today, I don't care who the automatically listed pitchers are for this game. Of course, all Run Line plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager, but with this game, it's not imperative as to who goes, I just want action. In the even one of the pitchers is scratched, your book will deem your ticket a no-play. It's your responsibility to re-wager the game.

I simply like my chances on the Run Line with my preseason choice to win the World Series, as they the Nationals have now won three in a row, while the reeling Padres have dropped eight straight and will undoubtedly struggle to manage in this one, especially with how they lost yesterday.

The pitchers you will end up with are San Diego's Robbie Erlin and Washington's Stephen Strasburg. And while I do see a complete mismatch with these two on the hill today, I wouldn't be too worried about a pitcher scratch since the Friars can't get out of their own way lately.

Strasburg has to be aching for a dominant win, as he steps to the hill after another tough-luck no-decision just this past Tuesday, when he fired seven scoreless innings against the Brewers and lowered his ERA to 2.24. The bad things is: no run support... again. He struck out eight batters - shockingly, all on curveballs and not his heater. He'll be up for this one.

Erlin, meanwhile struggled with command and the grasp of his secondary pitches in his last start, against the Red Sox, and could only muster 3-2/3 innings. This is a tough chore for him today.

Take the Nats on the run line, and remember to double check your wager and be sure you have action at all times.

1♦ WASHINGTON -1.5

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