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MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 7

MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 7

Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox at Angels
By Steve Merril

Two of the most potent offenses in the American League meet on Sunday Night as the Los Angeles Angels host the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-140, 8.5)


Jered Weaver is 2-4 with a 3.79 ERA for the Angels, although he’s pitching much better as of late. The righty has allowed just two runs in his last 14 innings of work, shutting down two good offenses in St. Louis and Detroit. Those outings were significantly better than his previous three starts in which he gave up four earned runs or more in games against Pittsburgh, New York and Baltimore. Weaver’s control has been pretty good except for two starts when he gave up four walks each time. He has not seen the Red Sox since a two-game stretch in August of last year when he picked up a win and a no-decision. Weaver allowed seven runs and 14 hits over 14 innings in those two meetings.


John Lackey is 6-5 with a 2.81 ERA for Boston. He has a 2.17 ERA in his last four starts; opponents are hitting just .246 against him overall this season. The Boston starter has been remarkably consistent allowing two runs or less in seven of his last ten outings. He has yielded just four walks in his last six starts and has struck out 18 batters in his last two games. Lackey faced his former team back in 2011 when he got shelled to the tune of eight runs and 10 hits in just four innings.


The Angels and Red Sox do not have many big names on their injury lists. Los Angeles is without Peter Bourjos, Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas, Sean Burnett and Ryan Madson, although none of those injuries are hampering their results. Vargas and Burnett could both return after the All-Star break. Madson is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Boston is waiting for Clay Buchholz to get healthy as he deals with a neck strain and inflammation in his shoulder. They are also without Joel Hanrahan due to Tommy John surgery, while Stephen Drew is out with a hamstring ailment.


Red Sox are 6-1 in Lackey’s last seven Sunday starts
The under is 7-3-1 in Lackey’s last 11 Sunday starts.
Angels are 40-13 in Weaver’s last 53 home starts
The under is 37-13-6 in Weaver’s last 56 home starts.


David Ortiz 10-for-29 vs. Weaver
Dustin Pedroia 5-for-25 vs. Weaver

Josh Hamilton 12-for-27 vs. Lackey
Alberto Callaspo 5-for-14 vs. Lackey

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 7

Sunday's National League Betting Notes and Tips

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (122, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: Phillies starter Jonathan Pettibone has allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his 14 starts this season.

Cold pitcher: Braves starter Kris Medlen took the loss versus the Phillies in his first start of the year.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-90s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: The Braves are 10-2 in Medlen's last 12 starts as a road favorite.

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals (-237, 7.5)

Hot pitcher: Nats starter Stephen Strasburg has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in each of his last nine starts and is coming off seven scoreless innings against Milwaukee in which he allowed three hits and struck out eight.

Cold pitcher: Pads starter Robbie Erlin is 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA in three road games (one start) in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to center field at 12 mph.

Key betting stat: The Padres are 1-10 in their last 11 overall.

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: Mets starter Jeremy Hefner has surrendered three or fewer earned runs in each of his last eight starts and is coming off a win over Arizona in which he allowed one run on four hits in seven innings.

Cold pitcher: Brewers starter Tom Gorzelanny is 4-5 with a 4.53 ERA in 21 career games (eight starts) against New York.

Weather: Roof could be closed in Milwaukee due to a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Key betting stat: The over is 7-0 in Mets last 7 overall.

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals (-170, 7)

Hot pitcher: Marlins starter Jose Fernandez is coming off a superb effort against the San Diego Padres when he struck out 10 and allowed only two hits over eight scoreless innings.

Cold pitcher: Cards starter Lance Lynn has lost back-to-back starts against Houston and the Los Angeles Angels, giving up nine earned runs and 14 hits in 13 2/3 innings.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s and a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: The Marlins are 5-1 in Fernandez's last six starts.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (138, OFF)

Hot pitcher: Pirates starter A.J. Burnett has dominated Chicago over his career with a 7-2 record and 3.08 ERA in 10 starts.

Cold pitcher: Brewers starter Carlos Villanueva will be making his first start in nearly two months, taking the place of Scott Feldman, who was traded to Baltimore last week. He was dropped from the starting rotation after getting battered for seven runs and 12 hits by Colorado on May 14.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (160, 6.5)

Hot pitcher: Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw leads the majors in ERA (1.93) and opponents’ batting average (.189), and he’s thrown seven or more innings in 14 of his 18 starts.

Cold pitcher: Giants starter Chad Gaudin is 0-2 with a 5.66 ERA in nine career appearances (two starts) against the Dodgers.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-60s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to center field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: The Giants are 4-for-50 with runners in scoring position over their last nine games.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-194, 9)

Hot pitcher: The Diamondbacks are 15-2 in Patrick Corbin's starts this season.

Cold pitcher: Rockies starter Roy Oswalt allowed five runs and nine hits in five innings en route to an 8-0 loss versus the Dodgers in his last time on the mound.

Weather: Roof could be closed due to expected temperatures around 110 fahrenheit.

Key betting stat: The under is 7-1 in Diamondbacks last eight home games vs. a right-handed starter.


Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds (-185, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: Reds starter Bronson Arroyo owns a 6-1 mark and 2.42 ERA in 11 outings at home this season.

Cold pitcher: Mariners starter Joe Saunders has struggled on the road, going 2-5 with a 5.81 ERA in nine starts.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-70s and a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow from right to left at 7 mph.

Key betting stat: The Reds are 6-0 in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 7

Sunday's American League Betting Notes and Tips

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-131, 9)

Hot pitcher: Orioles reliever Troy Patton has not given up a run since June 5. His ERA has dropped from 5.00 to 3.79 in that stretch.

Cold pitcher: Yanks starter Hiroki Kuroda is 1-4 over his last eight starts - a slump that started when he was pounded by Baltimore for five runs in two-plus innings on May 22.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: The Orioles are 0-6 in Jason Hammel's last six starts.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (130, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: Tigers starter Doug Fister is 5-3 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 12 career outings versus Cleveland.

Cold pitcher: Indians starter Corey Kluber is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA against the Tigers this season and 1-3 with a 7.88 ERA in five all-time appearances (four starts) against them.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-70s and a 40 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting stat: The Tigers are 7-0 in the last seven meetings.

Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays (-164, 9.5)

Hot pitcher: Jays closer Casey Janssen has converted all five save opportunities since blowing his first save of the season against the Texas Rangers on June 8.

Cold pitcher: Twins starter Scott Diamond has a 6.26 ERA in his last five starts.

Weather: Dome could be closed due to 50 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Key betting stat: The Twins are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Toronto.

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-214, 7.5)

Hot pitcher: Rays starter David Price tossed just 70 pitches over seven shutout innings, allowing three hits, no walks and striking out 10 against Houston last Tuesday.

Cold pitcher: Sox reliever Matt Lindstrom, who leads the club in appearances with 40, has an ERA of 10.46 versus the Rays over the past two seasons.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting stat: The over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals (126, 9)

Hot pitcher: Royals closer Greg Holland struck out the side as he picked up his 20th save of the season versus Oakland Saturday. He has not blown a save since May 6.

Cold pitcher: A's starter A.J. Griffin was tagged for seven runs and a season-high 10 hits his last start.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 20 mph.

Key betting stat: The under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings in Kansas City.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-191, 9.5)

Hot pitcher: Astros starter Erik Bedard has a 2.16 ERA in two appearances against Texas this season, including a 3 1/3-inning relief appearance in which he recorded his first major-league save.

Cold pitcher: Rangers starter Justin Grimm has an unsightly 9.31 ERA over his last six starts and has pitched five or fewer innings in four of them.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s and sunny skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 8 mph.

Key betting stat: The Rangers are 19-7 in their last 26 games with umpire Jeff Nelson behind home plate.

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-131, 8)

See Covers Expert Steve Merril's comprehensive game preview.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 7

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati opens a three game set at Miller Park Monday and sends out Homer Bailey who just delivered his second career no-hitter in the last 10 months. Reds are expected to be healthy road favorite with MR NO-NO on the hill and having done quite well vs Milwaukee this season winning 6-of-7 meetings. Plenty of reason to back Cinci, but baseball handicapping involves looking at all angles and a few stand out against the Reds in this one. Reds are just 5-8 last few years at Miller Park. Reds lone loss vs Brewers this season came w/Bailey on the mound with a deeper dive showing the club on a 1-4 skid vs Milwaukee w/Bailey. Other MLB handicapping trends of interest, pitchers off unbelievable mastery on the mound have not always performed to expectation the next start. A cruise through our trusted baseball betting data base tells us the last eight hurlers recording a perfect game had a 4-4 TSR the following trip to the mound while the last sixteen pitchers and one team (Seattle) recording no-hitters have an 8-9 TSR the next start. One final tid-bit: When one of these amazing hurlers faces a division foe the next game the TSR tumbles to 4-7. Little wonder, division foes face each other many times each season therefore are well aware of strengths, weaknesses of each player and team. By the way, Bailey lasted 4 innings getting tagged with a ND following his NO-NO last September in a loss to division rival St Louis.

Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays

Jays managing just 4 hits in being blanked 6-0 Saturday as -$1.95 favorite try to capture the rubber match when they host Twins at the Rogers Center. Jays expected to take the series have opened -$1.65 favorites. Tough to buy into that number. Jays are 2-4 in three game rubber matches, just 5-4 as home favorites after allowing =>6 runs the previous night, 3-3 as home favorite following a poor hitting performance the previous game, 2-3 after being blanked. If that were not enough, Twins lefty Scott Diamond presents a challenge to the Jays as they're 6-6 on the campaign as favorites vs a left-handed starter. From a league perspective, teams off a loss as huge favorites of -$1.90 or more are a 20-25 the next game depleting betting account to the tune of -$1559.

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Sunday's Betting Notes

Matchup of the Day - Boston at L.A. Angeles (ESPN, 8:05 p.m.)

Skinny: John Lackey (6-5, 2.81 ERA) will face his former team on Sunday as the Red Sox visit Anaheim. The Angels will counter with Jered Weaver (2-4, 3.79 ERA).

Friday – Red Sox 6 Angels 2
Saturday – Angels 9 Red Sox 7 (11 innings)

Expert’s Take – Stephen Nover: Despite blowing a 7-3 lead to the Angels on Saturday, Boston still has won nine of its last 11. The Red Sox are better than the Angels and they don't take a backseat to them either in this starting pitching matchup.

Often it takes up to 1 1/2 years to effectively come back from Tommy John surgery. That's been the case with Lackey, who missed all of last season recovering from the surgery. He's been outstanding in his last four starts with a 2.17 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 29 innings. Lackey certainly won't lack for motivation having pitched for the Angels from 2002-2009. The Angels clobbered him, 11-0, back in May but prior to that Lackey had won his previous four starts against the Angels while sporting a 2.45 ERA.

Jered Weaver missed more than seven weeks with a broken left elbow. He's pitched well during his last two starts, but his velocity is down and I don't consider him an elite pitcher anymore. Weaver has a 4.04 night ERA and a 1-3 record with a 4.78 ERA in his last five outings against the Red Sox.

Sunday Sweeps

Four teams will be looking to break out the broom on Sunday.

N.Y. Yankees vs. Baltimore

The Yankees beat the Orioles 3-2 and 5-4 this weekend. Ironically, the Orioles swept New York at home last weekend (4-3, 11-3, 4-2).

Washington vs. San Diego

Nationals have won three straight, two coming against the Padres (8-5, 5-4). San Diego has dropped eight straight, all on the road, six of the setbacks coming by two or more runs.

St. Louis vs. Miami

The Cardinals captured 4-1 and 4-5 victories over the Marlins, who had won eight of their last 10 games prior to this series.

Tampa Bay vs. Chicago White Sox

The Rays beat Chicago 8-3 and 3-0 in the first two games of this three-game set. Tampa Bay has won three in a row and seven of its last eight. The White Sox are 6-16 in their last 22 games.

Total Notes

The Mets have seen the OVER hit in seven consecutive games

The Phillies have seen the OVER hit four straight

Milwaukee is the second- best OVER (28-16) team at home

Arizona has watched the UNDER hit at a 65% (24-13) clip at home

Texas is the best UNDER bet (50-33) in the majors but the OVER has cashed in the last three

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MLB Odds and Picks -- Can Josh Hamilton continue to spark Angels' turnaround
By: The Linemakers

The two hottest teams in the American League will meet up in a rubber match when the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels play Sunday night. At the moment, everything seems to be going right for both teams. For Boston, they have surprised everyone with the best record in the league thanks to a combination of outstanding hitting and health. On the other side are the Angels, who are finally living up to their preseason potential as the big money players are coming through in key situations.

While Mike Trout and All-Star snub Howie Kendrick have been consistent all season, perhaps the biggest reason for the Angels winning nine of their last 11 games has been Josh Hamilton finally coming to life. No longer weakly flailing at pitches outside the strike zone, Hamilton has finally adjusted to his new home in Orange County and is being more selective at the plate.

During Hamilton's current 11-game hitting streak, he's batting .375 with two homers, nine RBIs and 10 runs. His two home runs over that stretch came in key moments with the fans and the rally monkey egging him on. Against the Cardinals on Thursday, he hit a game-tying two-run homer in the ninth inning off Edward Mujica, helping the Angels to a 6-5 win. Last night, his RBI single in the ninth extended the Angels four-run rally that eventually tied Boston 7-7, setting up his 'Natural' moment in the bottom of the 11th where he hit the game-winning two-run homer.

Whatever Hamilton is doing right now it's working. Most of it likely revolves around finally feeling comfortable at the plate with no pressure. Being down late in a game has never been pressure for Hamilton, but trying to live up to a massive contract and not performing for the first two months in new surroundings seemed to be weighing on him. Now the fans love him as they've always wanted to, and he feels the love as well. It's safe to say that the Hamilton we all expected from Texas has arrived and we should expect a huge second half.

Hamilton will get to face a pitcher tonight he's had his way with over his career. Former Angels World Series hero John Lackey (6-5, 2.81 ERA) returns in good form with the Red Sox. He's got a 4.39 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a career-low ERA. He'll be going for his fourth straight win tonight, but Hamilton might make it tough on him. In their head-to-head matchups, Hamilton has gone 12-for-27 (.444) against Lackey with four homers.

Another player getting back to his normal form for the Angels after a sub-par first-half is tonight's starter, Jered Weaver (2-4, 3.79 ERA). He's coming off his best two outings of the season where he allowed only one run in seven innings in each start at Detroit on June 27 and Tuesday against the Cardinals. If Weaver can maintain his current pace for the second-half every fifth day, that 8.5 game lead the A's have in the AL West will shrink considerably.

Before the season there was a lot of talk about a Freeway World Series between the Angels and Dodgers. Both were considered favorites in their leagues, but after two months, their odds soared as each continued to lose, seemingly on a daily basis. Both have pulled themselves from the depths of the cellar with their stars finally contributing and a future play on each wouldn't be a bad idea right now. The Angels are currently 30-to-1 to win the World Series while the Dodgers are 25-to-1.

Sunday selections:

Angels (Weaver) -130 vs. Red Sox

Yankees (Kuroda) -122 vs. Orioles

Indians (Kluber) +126 vs. Tigers

Season to date record: 160-158-2 (+662)

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