MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, July 1

MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, July 1

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays off a disappointing 2-5 road swing ending the month of June a solid 17-9 (+$1049) return to the comfort of Rogers Center and will host cross-border rivalry Detroit Tigers. The Blue Jays have R.A. Dickey heading to the bump, bringing a 7-8 record with a 4.72 ERA to the game. Not overly impressive but well to note, Dickey is coming off his best start of the season tossing a two-hit shutout vs Rays walking just one batter giving the hurler a 2-0 mark last three with a smart 3.05 ERA (3-0 TSR). Dickey's rival on the mound will be Detroit’s Jose Alvarez. The lefty has a 3.78 ERA with a 1-1 record in three starts filling in for Anibal Sanchez. Baseball betting involves looking at all angles of a game. Several stand out in Jays/Dickey's favor Monday. Jays are a perfect 6-0 in game-one of a series at home off a road swing, 5-1 at home off a one run loss, 8-3 as home favorite opening a series north of the border, 6-2 last 8 vs. a left-handed starter, 3-1 at home opening a series w/Dickey. Given the numbers, expect Jays to celebrate 'Canada Day' with a seventh straight victory at home.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, July 1

Tampa at Houston: Preview & Pick
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Those familiar with baseball handicapping are always leery of laying higher odds for a road team, but because other betting options exist, they can always avoid such concern. Such a case is happening tonight in Houston as the Astros host the Tampa Bay Rays in the first of a four-game series.

According to the current betting odds at Bovada, Tampa Bay is a -173 MLB pick to win, but thanks to the wonderful world of baseball handicapping, the run total offered is 8.5.

The traveling Rays will have lefty Matt Moore take the mound this evening. Moore currently has a 10-3 record and 3.95 ERA, and has bounced back with two straight victories after three consecutive losses and a pair of no-decisions kept him winless for a month.

Moore has virtually identical numbers in splits, but one baseball handicapping number that jumps out is that the Rays are 5-2-1 in favor of the Over in his eight road starts this year, and 13-7-1 in that category during his burgeoning career. When he has pitched with a total of 8.5 or higher (like tonight), the Over has won seven of 12 times, with one push.

Houston will offer righthander Dallas Keuchel, who brings a 4-4 record to the hill with a 4.34 ERA. Keuchel last started 10 days ago, but had his last start pushed back from last Friday after he pitched 2 2/3 innings of relief against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Those focused on baseball betting no doubt are aware that in three of Keuchel’s last four outings at Minute Maid Park, the Over has cashed. That fact might help explain his 5.20 ERA at home over 45 innings of work this season.

Tampa Bay is a healthy road favorite this evening, but as a road favorite, period, in 2013, the team has gone Over the number in eight of its 12 contests. When that game has been at night, the percentage is the same though with fewer matchups, with six Overs in nine games.

Adding to the surge in favor of the Over, when a home underdog is facing a southpaw at night with a run total of 8.5 or more this season, the Over is 12-3.

One final quirky fact that points to the Over is that in a span of the last 25 occurrences, teams that are coming off a series with the Detroit Tigers (like the Rays) have gone Over the run total 16 times in its next game. For the current season, the numbers are even better with a 9-4 nod to the Over.

While Tampa Bay is a solid choice to win this game, the baseball betting gods cringe at the thought of laying such heavy odds. Thus, the best MLB pick to make is:

Play Houston and Tampa Bay Over 8.5

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MLB Odds and Picks – Marlins find some magic in June
By: The Linemakers 
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- You can’t blame the Marlins if they were sad to see the calendar turn from June to July – , after all, they just had their most successful month in over a year. After going 14-41 in April and May, Miami busted out in June with a 15-10 record, their best month since last May when they went 21-9 as their high-priced free agents lived up to the hype. We know how that story ended – almost like this year began, littered with castoffs and rookies.

The one continual bright spot for the Marlins all season – even in the bad months – has been rookie right-hander Jose Fernandez, who takes the mound at home tonight against the Padres in the final of a four-game set. In June, he got even better than we had seen the previous two months, going 2-1 with a 1.67 ERA in five starts. Miami has won five of his seven starts this season at home, where he’s 2-0 and with a 1.76 ERA.

The Padres will counter with Jason Marquis (9-3, 3.99 ERA), who lost his last chance to become a 10-game winner. Before Tuesday’s home loss to Philadelphia, Marquis had won eight consecutive decisions, but the tables have turned on San Diego.

The Padres had scratched and clawed their way to a record above .500 with a seven-game win streak from June 10-17, only to fall two games under the mark (40-42) by losing eight of their last 12. After taking the first game of the series on Friday, 9-2, the Padres scored just three runs and hit only .194 during Saturday and Sunday losses.

While Marquis comes off one of his worst outings of the year, giving up six runs to the Phillies in a 6-2 loss, his best outing of the season came May 8 at home against the Marlins, when he went eight shutout innings in a 1-0 win. San Diego swept that series, but the Marlins are different now and did not have Fernandez on the mound in any of those three games.

We have a slight lean to the Marlins (-125) in this game with a stronger opinion on UNDER 7.5 runs. Marlins manager Mike Redmond is pushing all the right buttons with his young squad, and while the Miami offense still has something to be desired, they don’t make as many mistakes defensively and they get quality pitching, which allows bettors to trust them when betting them UNDER.

Red cold June

A team that features Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips should be considered one of the most feared lineups in baseball. But in June, Cincinnati was at the bottom of the fear factor chart by hitting only .234 (25th) and scoring only 93 runs (26th) while compiling a 12-14 record. Losing eight of their last 11, the Reds have hit only .211.

So when looking at the totals on Monday’s short MLB schedule, seeing a 9 posted on Reds-Giants may be a bit puzzling. However, the reason is pretty simple: the Giants are starting rookie left-hander Michael Kickham (0-2, 10.57 ERA), who has had troubles in both of his starts this season. On the other side, you’ve got Bronson Arroyo coming off his worst start of the season, a 7-2 loss at Oakland last Tuesday, when he lasted only four innings and gave up seven runs.

The Reds’ home cooking should do them well, and the Giants finally broke out of their six-game losing streak Sunday at Colorado, where Buster Posey hit his fourth homer in five games. Although June numbers suggest this might be another UNDER game, we think July helps clean the slate, and thanks to the starters, we’ll see some fireworks at the Great American Ball Park tonight.

Monday selections:

Padres/Marlins UNDER 7.5 (-120)

Marlins (Fernandez) -125 vs. Padres

Reds/Giants OVER 9 (+105)

Season to date record: 150-149-1 (+430)

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