Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Jimmy Boyd

Milwaukee Brewers -102

The Chicago Cubs have really struggled on the road this season. They have a .225 batting average and are scoring 3.3 runs per game. Their numbers get even worse when they are facing a division opponent with their batting average dropping to .212 and scoring a mere 2.9 runs per game. They are facing a Brewers team that has a .268 batting average at home and they are scoring 4.2 runs per game in those games.

When you compare the starting pitchers for these teams the Brewers will have another advantage. Garza has a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts compared to a 3.44 ERA from Peralta in his last three. Peralta has performed well against the Cubs this season posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.199 WHIP. His last outing against Chicago was a home start where he went 6.7 innings and gave up just 2 earned runs on 5 hits.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles -128FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland's Kluber has won his last three starts, but I'm not sold. Before that, the Indians had lost 15 of 20 with Kluber on the mound. In addition, the Indians are 24-49 in their last 73 road games, 17-40 in their last 57 road games versus a right-handed starter, 6-18 in their last 24 versus the American League East division and 0-5 in Kluber's last 5 starts versus the AL East. It hasn't been wise to bet against the Orioles in Baltimore with Gonzalez on the mound. That's because they are 10-0 in his last 10 home starts. The O's fell yesterday but are 41-15 in their last 56 games following a loss. Take Baltimore.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Mets vs. ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockies just endured a miserable road trip that saw them win only twice, with both of those victories coming in Washington this past weekend. Now they limp home, but do find themselves in a favorable situation against a Mets club that didn't finish its game until late last night in Chicago, and will have to travel again once this one is done as they host the Nationals for a three-game set starting tomorrow night.
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To make matters worse for New York, they're expected to give do-everything third baseman David Wright a rare day off.
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The Mets have enjoyed a terrific road trip winning in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Chicago (against the White Sox). However, they're still a losing club on the highway at 17-20, and face a Rockies team that has played much better at home this season, going 23-17.
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Jeremy Hefner gets the call for the Mets. He managed to hold the Phillies to only two earned runs in six innings last time out, but was tagged for 10 hits, fortunate to get out of a couple of jams. The Mets have now won his last two starts, but I think that's about as much as we can expect from Hefner. Note that he owns an inflated 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season.
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Tyler Chatwood will counter for Colorado. He's been quietly humming along lately, allowing two earned runs or less in seven consecutive starts. Over Chatwood's last five outings, he's given up a grand total of only 23 hits and eight walks in 27 innings. Note that the Rockies have gone 3-1 in his four home starts to date. He faced the Mets once last season, tossing just three scoreless innings in a 3-1 Colorado victory. He's pitched 10 career innings against New York and has yet to allow an earned run.
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This is a make-up game from a series these two played right here in Colorado back in mid-April. The Rockies have taken the first three games and seven in a row in this series going back to last season. I look for them to continue their dominance today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Royals / Twins  Over 8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OK, looks like this is as good as it's going to get. If you have to play 9 there's no juice and a push as opposed to a loss if it lands on 9. First things' first yet again. It's warm in Minnesota and the ball travels better when it's not cold. But, there'a also a stiff breeze blowing out to left center (or thereabouts) alleged to be in play. If actually been a fan of Deduno off and on, but honestly, the Brett experiment seems to be paying dividends finally, so I suspect the Royals get their fare share here. Minnesota's stock is down, and perhaps somewhat rightfully so, losing in Miami. But, it's a big park down there and I really didn't expect the WOULD score a lot. What I do like here is that both Morneau and Doumit rested yesterday, meaning Doumit should catch tonight and Mauer ought to DH, but either way, they should both be in the lineup. And that's a good thing, because Guthrie has been brutalized by the Twins, so they should get THEIR share here as well. With the Twins having play a series against an NL team, they needed perhaps more arms from the pen than they might have otherwise, so their not as rested as we'd like back there, or I'd back them here. The Royals pen has been one of the best in baseball, but much better at home, and it's about NOW that matters, and they've got a 5.09 ERA over the last week. Just far too many ways to get to 9 here, and it's no Saberhagen versus Jim Kaat in this game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Red Dog SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Angels / Tigers Over 8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The first two games of the series ended with scores of 14-8 and 7-4. These two have combined for 87 overs/65 unders this year. The Angels are hitting the ball well in Detroit led by Shuck, Trout, Pujols, Trumbo, Hamilton, Kendrick and Aybar while the Tigers have offensive players like Jackson, Hunter, Cabrera, Fielder, Martinez and Peralta. Even last night's #9 hitter (Pena) was hitting .297.
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Two veterans are on the mound but Fister's ERA is 6.62 in his last 3 starts while Weaver's ERA is 5.21 in that span. It does concern me that we are seeing an afternoon game (getaway day) but these two can score runs quickly.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Fezzik

Montreal / Winnipeg Under 50.5

When we think CFL we think "over" and that's what the Oddsmakers did here, setting this one in the 50s.  Too high, defenses ahead of the offenses early in the year....look for a sluggish start for both teams.  In the NFL home dogs go 'under' week1 in high total'd games, look for the same here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals -139FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We're getting Stephen Strasburg at a discount tonight as he and the Washington Nationals take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Rarely will you ever get Strasburg as this small of a home favorite.
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The discount comes because Strasburg has been unlucky this year to have just a 4-6 record despite posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.031 WHIP over 14 starts. The right-hander has been virtually untouchable at home, going 3-3 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.800 WHIP over six starts.
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Strasburg has faced Arizona twice in his career, going 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP. He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners over 11 innings while striking out 13 in those two starts with Washington going 2-0.
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The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Arizona is 1-6 in its last 7 games as an underdog. The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Washington is 36-15 in its last 51 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Nationals Thursday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Brad Wilton

My comp play for Thursday will be the Mets and Rockies to stay Under the total in their make up game today at Coors Field.

Tough scheduling for both teams, but particularly for the Mets, as New York just played a pair in Chicago against the White Sox, and they will have to hurry home after this game tonight for a weekend set at Citi Field against Washington beginning tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, Colorado just ended a 2-7 road trip with a loss late yesterday afternoon in Boston, so while I see a bunch of Over trends on the stat sheet for both teams, I am counting on both being just a little fatigued and for the pitching to keep the hitting quiet in this late day contest.

Mets hurler Jeremy Hefner has been solid his last 3 trips to the rubber, going 1-1 while keeping his ERA just a tad over 2, while Colorado starter Tyler Chatwood looks like a keeper going 4-1 this year with a 2.22 ERA.

Both starters have pitched to Unders in 2 of their last 3 assignments, and the combination of the good pitching versus the tired bats will lead to an Under in tonight's Mets-Rockies makeup game from Coors Field.

New York-Colorado play it Low.

3♦ N.Y. METS-COLORADO UNDER

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Rob VenoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago at MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Difficult to play any game under the total at Miller Park but the circumstances here are ideal for a low scoring game. Day game after a night game on get away day is always a nice preface for an under but the starting pitchers should be the overwhelming forces here. Chicago’s Matt Garza is now in the thick of his audition for playoff contending teams as his last two starts suggest he’s well on his way back to form. His confidence level is high which is key for the often emotional RH and according to catcher Dioner Navarro, "his last couple starts, his fastball command has been off the charts, and that's the key for anybody." Versus the light hitting New York Mets and Houston, Garza has strung together 15 innings of seven hit, one run baseball in which his WHIP is 0.73 and ERA is 0.60. Just as impressive is the ease in which Garza has gotten through innings in those starts, averaging just 13.67 pitches per frame. His 13-4 K-BB totals in those starts create a ratio that can be very successful for Garza. Even if injured OF Carlos Gomez returns for Milwaukee, they’re likely to have a difficult time with the Cubs RH who has gone 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA against them in his last five tries. The Brewers counter with hard throwing Wily Peralta who is showing signs lately of being the force in the rotation Milwaukee believes he can be. His last start was a seven inning, 2 hit, shutout gem against the lefty dominated-fastball hitting Braves. His last five starts have consisted of three quality starts and his ERA and WHIP have been significantly better. With the Milwaukee bullpen currently putting together a strong month (1.11 WHI, 2.68 ERA, 14 H+S) Peralta should have solid back end support. Four of his last five starts have gone under as have Garza’s most recent pair.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Teddy Covers   

Cleveland at Baltimore
Play: Cleveland

The Indians have been a streaky team all year, and they’re streaking in a positive direction right now.  They went 18-4 from late April through mid-May, but followed that up with a miserable 4-17 stretch.  Now the Tribe have turned that around, 10-4 in their last 14 ballgames, including four straight series wins and six wins at an underdog price during that span.  Meanwhile, the Orioles are slumping, losers of five of their last six.  And it’s surely worth noting that the vast majority of profits that Baltimore has earned this year have come in the road underdog role, not the home favorite’s role.

Cleveland’s Corey Kluber has notched the win in each of his last three starts, allowing only four runs in 21.2 innings during that span.  His control has been masterful: 69 strikeouts compared to only 13 walks.  And with a .327 BABIP and a 2.98 xFIP, the advanced metric numbers clearly show that Kluber is more than capable of continuing his success as the season progresses.

Baltimore’s Miguel Gonzalez, on the other hand, is showing real regression potential, with an xFIP more than a half run higher than his ERA and an unsustainably low BABIP.  And the Orioles aggregate bullpen numbers have gotten worse as the season has progressed; a big reason why they are .500 in one run games this year, in sharp contrast to their remarkable 29-9 record in one run games last season.  I’ll take the plus price return on investment with the underdog in a game that should be much closer to pick ‘em!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Harry Bondi

BALTIMORE (-125) over Cleveland

We remained perfect this week with another underdog winner on the Cubs over Milwaukee. The Steam Team also was perfect last night cashing on the underdog Mets over the White Sox. Tonight lets back The Orioles to bounce back after their closer Jim Johnson blew his first save in 13 opportunities last night. Miguel Gonzalez starts for Baltimore tonight and he has been solid allowing three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight outings. The right handed Mexican has limited opponents to a .232 batting average and allowed only 69 hits over 81 2/3 innings. Let's keep a great week going with Baltimore tonight.

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