Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Toronto at Boston
The Blue Jays look to build on their 9-2 record in their last 11 games as underdogs. Toronto is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+145)

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Garza) 15.782; Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.370
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-115); Under

Game 953-954: Arizona at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 14.587; Washington (Strasburg) 15.977
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Over

Game 955-956: Philadelphia at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Pettibone) 14.642; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 16.838
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Over

Game 957-958: Texas at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 16.294; NY Yankees (Hughes) 14.417
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125); Under

Game 959-960: LA Angels at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.822; Detroit (Fister) 14.409
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+130); Over

Game 961-962: Cleveland at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 15.144; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.881
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-140); Under

Game 963-964: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Wang) 17.024; Boston (Lester) 15.702
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+145); Over

Game 965-966: Kansas City at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.084; Minnesota (Deduno) 16.340
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Under

Game 967-968: NY Mets at Colorado (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hefner) 15.563; Colorado (Chatwood) 14.572
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+145); Over

CFL

Montreal at Winnipeg
The Alouettes look to take advantage of a Winnipeg team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games in June. Montreal is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4)

Game 121-122: Montreal at Winnipeg (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 116.845; Winnipeg 110.762
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 6; 48
Vegas Line: Montreal by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4); Under

WNBA

Phoenix at Washington
The Mercury look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games versus the Mystics. Phoenix is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-5)

Game 651-652: Phoenix at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 113.060; Washington 106.122
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 161
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 167 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-5); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

BRAD WILTON

My comp play for Thursday will be the Mets and Rockies to stay Under the total in their make up game today at Coors Field.

Tough scheduling for both teams, but particularly for the Mets, as New York just played a pair in Chicago against the White Sox, and they will have to hurry home after this game tonight for a weekend set at Citi Field against Washington beginning tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, Colorado just ended a 2-7 road trip with a loss late yesterday afternoon in Boston, so while I see a bunch of Over trends on the stat sheet for both teams, I am counting on both being just a little fatigued and for the pitching to keep the hitting quiet in this late day contest.

Mets hurler Jeremy Hefner has been solid his last 3 trips to the rubber, going 1-1 while keeping his ERA just a tad over 2, while Colorado starter Tyler Chatwood looks like a keeper going 4-1 this year with a 2.22 ERA.

Both starters have pitched to Unders in 2 of their last 3 assignments, and the combination of the good pitching versus the tired bats will lead to an Under in tonight's Mets-Rockies makeup game from Coors Field.

New York-Colorado play it Low.

3* N.Y. METS-COLORADO UNDER

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CRAIG DAVIS

Yep, I'm going right back to the NY Yankees as your free play based on the fact that it's a day game in the Bronx and the fact that New York still owns the Rangers despite last night's loss.

Speaking of last night... my 50-dime bust last night on the St. Louis Cardinals was sitting pretty in the 6th with Lance Lynn throwing a no-hitter and the Cardinals owning a 3-0 lead. Then the walk-fest began and Lynn fell apart to the tune of four earned runs and five walks.

St. Louis would fall behind 4-3 and not score again. Amazing!! I've had two straight nights of blown leads and need to find that win to get another streak going like in the NBA Playoffs.

As for the Yankees this afternoon, it's not so much that I like Phil Hughes more than I like Derek Holland, but it's more about the Yanks domination over the Rangers in recent memory at home and the fact that Texas won last night.

Despite the fact that Phil Hughes has a higher ERA at home than he does on the road, he owns a 2-1 career record vs. Texas with a 2.00 ERA in 18 innings pitched.

Holland, on the other hand, has a decent record and ERA this season and he pitches just as well on the road as he does at home... but it's hard to ignore his 0-5 career record vs. the Yankees including his 8.85 ERA. Yikes!!

Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.

1* N.Y. YANKEES

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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians at Baltimore OriolesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Baltimore OriolesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Orioles and Indians conclude a four-game series in Baltimore Thursday evening where Mike Gonzalez opposes Cory Kluber at Camden Yards. Gonzalez has loved home cooking this season where he is 6-0 in his team starts this season, as opposed to 2-5 away. On the flip side, Kluber's 4.46 road ERA is more than 1.5 runs per game worse than his 2.93 ERA this year. With Kluber winless (0-3) against the A. L. East this campaign, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baltimore.

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Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Spain at ItalyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Italy head coach Cesare Prandelli may prefer an attacking style of play -- but expect him to have his club play a cautions defensive contest in this Semifinals elimination match. This aggressive striking strategy may have produced six goals in their last two games against Japan and Brazil -- but they also surrendered seven goals over that span. Now facing this Spain team that crushed them by a 4-0 margin to win the 2012 Euro championship, the Italians cannot keep up in a scoring fest with La Roja. Spain's goaltender Iker Casillas has allowed only one goal so far in his Confederations Cup three games. To compound matters for Italy, they will be without one of their key attackers with Mario Balotelli being out with a thigh injury. Expect a low-scoring game in this Euro Finals rematch. Take the Under.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Steve Janus

Baltimore Orioles -129

Baltimore is going to be highly motivated to get a split at home in the series after losing two of the first three to the Indians. With Miguel Gonzalez on the mound they have to like their chances. Baltimore is a perfect 6-0 this season when Gonzalez takes the mound and 10-2 over the last two seasons.

Gonzalez has done an excellent job of keeping the Orioles in the game. He's allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. In his only start against the Indians, he allowed just two earned runs over 6 and 2/3 innings in a 10-2 Orioles victory.

Even with last nights win the Indians are still 6-games under .500 on the road. Offensively the Indians come in averaging just 4.6 runs/game, which is a key number for this game. Gonzalez is 13-6 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game.

Thursday is travel day in the MLB and some teams enter these games differently. Baltimore has a strong history of playing well. They are 19-8 on Thursday over the last two seasons. Adding even more value is the fact that the Indians are a dismal 1-8 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +125 in 2013. There's clear value on Baltimore here as a small home favorite.

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Art Aronson

Phillies vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 7½

Jonathan Pettibone (3-3, 4.14 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Pettibone left his Saturday start vs. the Mets early with a back injury, completing six innings and giving up one run off five hits with a walk (note that the rookie sports a poor 1-2, 6.84 ERA road record). The 22-year old will be opposed by the 29-year old Zack Greinke (4-2, 3.79 ERA) who is coming off his best outing of the year, giving up one run off four hits with a walk over eight innings in his team's eventual 6-1 victory over the Friars on Saturday night. Grienke has looked decent at times this season and extremely pedestrian in others. Six of these teams last ten in the series have indeed flown above the posted number and I'm expecting tonight's contest to follow suit; consider a second look at the "over" in this one.

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Ray Monohan

Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles    
Play: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are looking to even up their series with Cleavland on Thursday night. The Orioles were looking to get out of a funk that started over the weekend, not helped by the news that prospect Dylan Bundy is going under the knife. The O's are turning to Miguel Gonzalez to stop the bleeding. The O's greatest weakness is their lack of a true ace but Gonzalez is doing his best as a stand in. Batters are hitting only .232 against Gonzalez and the Cleveland lineup will see just how difficult he is to hit. In two previous starts against the Tribe he has only yielded but a few runs.

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Jeffrey Brandes

Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +126 

Pitchers:
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: JONATHAN PETTIBONE (R) ERA: 4.14 W/L: 3-3
LOS ANGELES DODGERS: ZACK GREINKE (R) ERA: 3.79 W/L: 4-2

The Dodgers are starting to heat up now and the Phillies, well the Phillies are just in a Phunk. Unless Cliff Lee is starting, the Phils right now are a "must check" bet against. JONATHAN PETTIBONE gets the call for the Phillies tonight after being scratched from his last start because of stiffness in his back. He's 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA in his last 3 starts and doesn't strike much fear in me here in this game.

ZACK GREINKE had his best outing of the season his last time out, allowing one run in eight innings with eight strikeouts. He's gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts. Greinke is 3-0 with 2.12 ERA in five starts at home.

Key Trends:
LA Dodgers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Philadelphia is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Philadelphia

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals    
Play: Washington Nationals

The Nationals hung on for a 3-2 win last night over Arizona and fit a nice system from the MLB Database which applies to home favorites off a 2 run win if both teams scored less than 4 runs in games where the total was 8 or less and is 8 or less for this game. These home teams have won 11 of the last 14 times in this system. Washington has won 8 of 11 as a home favorite in this range and has Strasburg pitching today. Strasburg as a 1.12 home era this season and has won both starts vs Arizona. He will oppose P. Corbin who has also pitched well this season but has not been quite as good as Strasburg. With Washington 8-1 on Thursday we will back them to take the final game of this series.

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Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are 36-17 in their last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter and face righty Matt Garza (4.25 ERA). Last place Chicago still struggles on offense, 18th in runs scored, 25ht in on base percentage. The Cubs are 31-69 in their last 100 road games. Milwaukee plays their best baseball at home and starter Wily Peralta is off a big win, tossing seven shutout innings, allowing two hits and four walks while striking out four in a 2-0 win over Atlanta on Friday night. The Cubs are 7-24 in the last 31 meetings, including 6-21 in the last 27 meetings in Milwaukee. Play the Brewers.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City Royals at Minnesota TwinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Minnesota TwinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Returning to Target Field appears a good idea for the Twins, who lost 4 of 5 on a just-completed, short road trip to Cleveland and Miami but have won 10 of their last 14 in Minneapolis. Moreover, Minnesota has been scoring runs at home (30 in the last five as host), and should get some opportunites tonight if Kansas City Jeremy Guthrie, though toughion the Twins lately, is as ineffective as he was in his most-recent start when allowing 6 runs in just 2 2/3 IP last Friday against the White Sox. And besides, Guthrie has not been as dominating vs. the Twins as Minnesota starter Samuel Deduno was against the Royals on June 4 when allowing no runs and just four hits in 6 IP of an eventual 3-0 win at Kauffman Stradium. Also note the live-armed Deduno's 1.93 ERA in his last two starts at Target Field. Play Twins

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Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles DodgersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In Pettibone's last 3 starts, he has an 0-2 record with a staggering 6.91 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, while Greinke is 1-1 in his last 3 starts with a 3.60 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. The Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 road games. The Dodgers are 7-3 in Greinke's last 10 starts. Play the Dodgers.

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Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City vs. MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City won for just the second time in seven games w/ a surprise 4-3 win vs Atlanta on Wednesday. Now they travel to Minnesota to face a Twins team whom they've beaten five of six meetings this season, but they are running into a pitcher that has had their number in two previous starts. Because of that and other reasons, I like the Twins at home in this one.
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Homefield advantage means a lot here, at least as far as I'm concerned.  All six games played between these two American League Central Division teams this season have been in Kauffman Stadium.  The Royals are not a particular formidable road team at just 17-20 for the year.  The Twins are 19-17 at Target Field, averaging 4.6 runs per game.  This will be Minnesota's first game back home since sweeping the White Sox here last week.
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Perhaps no player on the field will benefit more from the homefield advantage than Twins starter Sam Deduno, who carries a perfect 7-0 team start record in night games at Target Field since the start of last season.  He has also won both home starts in 2013, posting a 1.93 ERA and 1.000 WHIP.  In two career starts vs. Kansas City, one of them coming this year, he has a 0.73 ERA.  Earlier in this year, he became the only Twins starter to defeat the Royals in 2013 by pitching six scoreless innings.

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Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a free play on the Under Thursday night in Baltimore as the Orioles and Indians wrap up a four-game set.  Cleveland has taken two of the first three games, including 4-3 last night, and all three games have gone Under.  Like I said, this one should too.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1.  Corey Kluber - The Indians starter has pitched very well of late.  He is a perfect 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.66 ERA. The entire Tribe starting rotation has pitched well the last three weeks. Kluber has done his part, allowing three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts.
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2.  Miguel Gonzalez - For Baltimore, Gonzalez is tough to beat at home, as is obvious by a 10-2 TSR at Camden Yards dating back to last season (6-0 in 2013).  The Under is 16-6 the last 22 times he has started on grass, and he also just made a quality start at Toronto in his most recent outing.  Like Kluber, he's pitched very well of late with a 2.91 ERA his last three starts.  He shined in his only career start vs. the Indians as he threw six-plus innings, giving up only two runs on seven hits.
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3. X-Factor - Cleveland has gone Under in four straight and seven of its last nine.  As a team, they are batting below .240 the last three weeks.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas vs. NY YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rangers have split the first two games of their series in the Bronx, winning in a slugfest yesterday by a score of 8-5. Yankees starter Andy Pettitte was to blame for half of those runs, but the other four were charged to Joba Chamberlain and Shawn Kelley.
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They play the rubber match on Thursday afternoon, and we could be in for another high scoring affair here today. Phil Hughes gets the nod for the Yankees, and he hasn't been very sharp at home this season. He was torched for five runs on 10 hits over six innings in a home loss to the Dodgers his last time out. He's 1-4 with a 6.69 ERA in seven starts in the Bronx this year.
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Hughes has never been at his best in early games, since 2010 he's posted an ERA over 5.00 in day games, while registering an ERA below 4.00 at night. During that time he's only had one start versus Texas, and that didn't go well for him. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on five hits including a home run, getting tagged with a loss.
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The Rangers hand the ball to Derek Holland, who hasn't missed a lot of bats lately. Holland (5-4, 3.43 ERA) allowed four runs on four hits, while walking three over seven innings in a win over the Cardinals his last time out. Prior to that he allowed four runs on 10 hits, including a pair of home runs in a loss to Toronto.
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He's been really roughed up by the Bronx Bombers over the past few seasons, going 0-3 with an 8.56 ERA in five starts since 2010. Three of those games were played at Yankee Stadium. Given that he's winless in his last four starts, and hasn't really pitched well of late, it's likely his struggles in the Bronx will continue today.

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WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas at New York YankeesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New York YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees have split the first two in this series, and the Wednesday matinee at the Stadium will decide who takes this series. The Rangers, despite the win last night, have struggled at the Stadium to a 2-9 mark in their last 11 here. Neither Texas starter Derek Holland, or Yankees starter Phil Hughes have been doing well over the last month or so, but the devil is in the details here. Hughes has a pedigree both at home and vs. the Rangers. Hughes is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA against Texas with a WHIP of 0.67 in four appearances, three of which were starts. The Yankees are impressive at home behind Hughes where they are 41-18 in his last 59 here. This is a good situation for New York and have value as a home dog. Play on New York.

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JEFF BENTON

Thursday freebie is the Under in the Blue Jays-Red Sox series opener from Fenway Park.

Toronto has been playing them low, as they hit Beantown with Unders in each of their last 3 games, and 10 of their last 13 games played overall.

Chien-Ming Wang has been a pleasant surprise for the Jays, as the righty has worked 20-plus innings thus far and has an ERA just a bit over 2.

Jon Lester counters for a Boston team that held Under yesterday against the Rockies and have been Under the price now in 5 of their last 9 .

Lester has indeed struggled in recent outings, but I can see him regaining his former versus a Toronto team that he has thrown a one-hit shutout against earlier this year. He is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his 3 starts this season against the Jays.

The teams have played 3 of their last 4 Under the total this season, so look for the long weekend series opener to hold low tonight at Fenway.

4* TORONTO-BOSTON UNDER

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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WINNIPEG +170 over MontrealFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Anthony Calvillo and the Montreal Alouettes have represented the power in this league for years. When teams are building or preparing for the upcoming year, the goal has been to put together a team that can defeat the Als. The Argos did it last season and so did a few others, as the league has now caught up to them. Some are calling it an off-year, (Als went 11-7 last year) and expect them to rebound strong this season but we’re not so sure. Calvillo is 40-years old and Father Time forgives nobody. Additionally, the Als have an entire new coaching staff with no CFL experience and that’s a huge obstacle to overcome. Montreal also has a slew of new personnel and most of them are veterans or castoffs that have worn out their welcome elsewhere. This is an old team in a young man’s game and although the Als have plenty of experience, they have not played together and it would be of no surprise if they were a step slower than the other teams and a bit out of sync as well. The Alouettes defense is another area of concern, where they were torched constantly last season by every efficient offense in the CFL and it may be the same story this year.
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The Blue Bombers were torched in their two preseason games by a combined score of 76-6 and that has many believing this edition of the Bombers is no better off and maybe worse than a year ago. Don’t believe it. Winnipeg showed nothing in the preseason. They played mostly backups and had no desire to do anything but evaluate players on the bubble. Tim Burke took over the coaching duties eight games into the season a year ago and lost the first three but then Winnipeg closed with a 4-3 record under Burke. Burke’s track record as a defensive coordinator prior to the interim gig last year suggests he’s ready for the full-time challenge as well. The veteran coach overlooked Winnipeg’s vaunted “Swaggerville” defense in 2011 after three years as defensive coordinator in Montreal, helping the Alouettes to three straight Grey Cup appearances and two wins. This guy knows the CFL and he knows how to win. Winnipeg is much better than last season and if QB Buck Pierce remains healthy, they will be a tough out every single week. Winnipeg has a nice balance of offense and defense and they’re extremely well-coached (Burke brought back Casey Creehan as defensive coordinator and Creehan was in charge of Winnipeg’s defensive line during their impressive 2011 season). Opening up at home with a clean slate in their new stadium in front of a packed house, the Bombers offer up tremendous value here. Keep the points. Bombers outright.

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BALTIMORE -1½ +163 over ClevelandFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We’ve been strong supporters of Corey Kluber the entire season up to now because, as we suggested, he was an undervalued pitcher. With a 6-4 record and a 1.68 ERA over his past three starts, the value on Kluber is gone and now we’re going to sell high on him. Kluber is having a great year but there are some glaring negatives in his skill set that insist he’s not as good as the numbers say. We'll start with the good: he’s only walked 13 batters in 71 frames and he’s missing plenty of bats with 69 K’s. The strikeout rate isn't just from one start either, as he's struck out 8+ hitters four times this season. The problem is his hit rate is elevated and has been for three years. Kluber is squeezing out of a lot of jams and his pitch count gets up there very quickly. He’s only averaging 5.1 innings per start. And note that only 14% of batted balls are hit softly. So he's allowing a lot of hitters to square up on the ball. Kluber’s 87% strand rate over his past six starts is also unsustainable and it’s only a matter of time before we see this guy blow up for an extended period of time. The Orioles square up as well as any team in baseball and Kluber could be in for a rough one here.
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Miguel Gonzalez is the underpriced pitcher in this matchup. Gonzalez has quietly saw his skills soar in May and in June. His fastball velocity increased by nearly 1.0 mph from April to May and his swinging strike rate was an upper-tier 10.3%. Gonzalez offers up four quality offerings: a fastball anywhere from 89-94 MPH with an average of 91.2 MPH, a slider that he throws 11½% of the time, a curve 8.2%, a changeup 16.4% and a two seam FB that he throws 18% of the time. He’ll also throw any of them at any time, with or without the count in his favor. Gonzalez has a 0.89 WHIP over his last five starts, and a skill supported 3.75 ERA on the season. Lots of folks think that Miguel Gonzlez is all smoke and mirrors but they’re wrong. Truth is, Corey Kluber is serviceable but he’s the one that has been living a charmed life, not the opposite. The reward spotting 1½-runs is worth the risk.
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COLORADO -1 +131 over N.Y. MetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mets were at Coors earlier this year and were swept in a three-game set by scores of 11-3, 9-8, and 8-4. The Rockies have now defeated the Mets in seven straight games dating back to last year and this one isn’t likely to be any different. Furthermore, this is a make-up game for the Mets, who played a night game in Chicago yesterday and now have to play a 4:00 PM (local time) game here before returning home to host the Nationals starting tomorrow. It would be of no surprise to see the Mets field their “B” lineup here in this one-game trip to Colorado. Jeremy Hefner has strung together a decent year but he’s benefitted greatly from pitching half of his 14 starts at Citi Field. On the road, it’s a completely different tale for Hefner. On the road, Hefner’s ERA is 4.83 with a BAA of .281. He pitched one inning at Coors earlier in the year and we’re certain he hasn’t forgotten it because in that one inning he was taken yard twice. The Rockies' bats will be looking forward to being home, where they have an NL-best .286 BA and .814 OPS.
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Tyler Chatwood is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. In eight starts since taking over John Garland’s rotation spot, Chatwood has had one bad start and seven pure quality starts. That one poor start occurred in his first time out but since then, Chatwood has allowed two runs or fewer in seven straight starts. In four starts at Coors Field, he has not allowed a single HR and that’s due to his elite groundball rate of 60% on the year. Over his last five starts, Chatwood’s GB rate is 63%. Chatwood’s strikeout rate is improving (he struck out 18 batters in a recent 16-inning span) and his last four wins were by scores of 10-5, 5-0, 10-2 and 12-2. When he wins, he wins big and this is the perfect spot to extend that trend in.

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