2013 PGA AT&T National Betting News and Notes
2013 PGA AT&T National Betting News and Notes
PGA Tour Odds and Picks – Jason Day primed for win at Congressional
By: Rick Herron
LAS VEGAS -- Last Sunday was a wild and crazy day on the PGA Tour, as the Travelers Championship lived up to its reputation for exciting finishes.
There were five guys tied for the lead at 10-under par – and four more at 9-under – as the field made the turn for the back nine.
The eventual winner was 44-year-old Ken Duke, who shot a final-round 66 to finish at 12-under for his long awaited first PGA Tour win.
It didn’t come easily.
Duke hit the ball into the trees on No. 10, and it bounced back out to land three feet from the cup – it looked like one of those Travelers commercials that played all weekend on CBS' broadcast. He made that putt, later sunk a 40-footer on the back nine and looked to have the tournament wrapped up before 31-year-old Chris Stroud chipped in on the final hole to force a playoff.
Duke won the playoff when he hit a brilliant wedge to about 2 or 3 feet from pin on the second playoff hole. He made the birdie putt and earned a trip to Augusta National next year for The Masters to boot.
It’s quite a story. Duke had played in almost 200 PGA Tour events before his breakthrough.
Oh, and Bubba Watson absolutely gave away the tournament when he hit it in the water on the par-3 16th hole and ended up making a triple-bogey six. Bubba had a one-shot lead at the time and didn’t handle his disappointing play well, as he blamed caddie Ted Scott for the club selection. In and of itself, that would be not be a big deal, but he blew up at Scott in range of the microphones and basically made a fool of himself on national TV. He ended up finishing fourth.
By the way, Bubba was our top play last week. Ouch.
Now we move on to the AT&T National at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Md.
Tiger Woods hosts this event, but he will not be playing the 7,569 yard, par-71 monster. Tiger, who won the tournament last year, withdrew last week with an elbow strain. He will not play again until the British Open, which begins on July 18th.
You need to be long at Congressional to be a factor. You also need to be a good long iron player. Here are four guys with a big shot this week.
JASON DAY (15-1). Day likes difficult golf courses. He finished second at the U.S. Open, third at The Masters and sixth at Pebble Beach this year, and he has four top three finishes in the last 10 majors. This golf course is right up his alley.
GRAHAM DeLAET (30-1). DeLaet finished third last week, his best showing of the year. The Canadian can play, though, as his $1.3 million-plus in earnings for the year and No. 29 world ranking shows. He is as long as anyone out there and is going to get a win soon.
ANGEL CABRERA (60-1). Cabrera has rededicated himself this year, and it has shown. He was second at The Masters and tied for ninth last week. He plays well on tough golf courses, and this one certainly qualifies.
NICOLAS COLSAERTS (60-1). This guy is just scary long, and his iron play is solid as well. The 30-year-old Belgian has three top 10s on the year, including a tie for tenth at the U.S. Open at Merion. His game should be well suited for Congressional. He’s on the verge of doing special things.
Since we think Day has a very good shot this week, we are also using him at +130 in his matchup against tournament favorite (12-1) Adam Scott.
Next week is the Greenbrier Classic in West Virginia. Enjoy the golf!
Re: 2013 PGA AT&T National Betting News and Notes
AT&T National Preview and Picks
By Matt Fargo
We got burned for a second straight week as Bubba Watson melted down at the Travelers following Phil Mickelson's similar scenario at the U.S. Open prior to that. No time to reflect on the bad as we move ahead to this week and the AT&T National taking place from famed Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD. This is the fifth time that Congressional has hosted this event but just the second time since renovations took place prior to the 2011 U.S. Open.
Before the renovations, Congressional was a relatively easy track but that is not the case after the USGA took over. Out of 49 venues last season, Congressional ranked as the third toughest course, and toughest of non-Majors, at +2.036 over par. It was also the hardest par 71 course on tour, just ahead of Riviera Country Club and Harbour Town Golf Links. All facets of the game are difficult as putting, scrambling, greens hit and driving accuracy all ranked 14th or lower.
Only 14 players finished below par last year, led by Tiger Woods, who won by two shots over Bo Van Pelt and three shots over Adam Scott. A strained elbow will keep Tiger from defending his title and that typically brings a lot more of the field back into the mix. Past history here is limited while the layout has changed as have the surface of the greens, therefore it is more favorable to look at current form as the biggest factor heading into this week. A look into last year's finish also helps.
The field is thinned out somewhat with the Irish Open highlighting the European Tour this week. Overall, there are just two players ranked within the OWGR Top Ten, Adam Scott and Brandt Snedeker, 14 of the top 30 and 24 of the top 50. This after Justin Rose withdrew prior to the week. 11 winners from 2013 are teeing it up including last week's winner Ken Duke as are two past champions of this event, Nick Watney and K.J. Choi.
With Woods out of the picture this week, Adam Scott (+1,200) is the slight favorite. He played well here last year with a solo third but he did miss the cut at the 2011 U.S. Open although that was a much more difficult setup altogether. He has not played much since his win at the Masters and his best finish is a T13 at the Memorial. He should be plenty rested and ready to win again.
Jason Day (+1,500) is having an excellent season as he has yet to miss a cut in 12 medal play starts with four top tens and a pair of top threes. Those top threes came at the first two Majors and while this is not a Major, it is a major course. And one that he loves. He placed solo second at the U.S. Open here two years ago behind Rory McIlroy and finished T8 at Congressional last year, five shots behind Woods.
Bo Van Pelt (+3,000) is too good to have won only once on tour (he won the 2009 U.S. Bank Championship). He is not having a great season in 2013 as he has just one top ten but he has five other top 25 finishes and he has missed only three cuts in 16 starts. As mentioned, he was the runner-up to Woods last year and he was a solid T14 at the 2011 U.S. Open so he certainly likes it here.
This is some excellent value for Ryan Palmer (+4,000). He did miss the cut at the U.S. Open in his last start but prior to that, he posted two top fives in his previous four starts and has the game to compete here. He has showed that in the past as he finished T21 at the 2011 U.S. Open and then last year at the AT&T, he finished T15 that included two rounds of 67 and 69.
We will go with John Huh (+5,000) for the longshot pick this week. He has been pretty average as he only has one top ten this year but that was a T8 at the Byron Nelson which has similar bentgrass greens. He likes the big stage as he finished T11 at the Masters (also similar greens) and T17 at the U.S. Open. He played at Congressional last year and was solid with a T17 highlighted by a Saturday 67.
Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the AT&T National (all for One Unit)
Adam Scott (+1,200)
Jason Day (+1,500)
Bo Van Pelt (+3,000)
Ryan Palmer (+4,000)
John Huh (+5,000)
2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 23 events: -25.4 Units
Re: 2013 PGA AT&T National Betting News and Notes
PGA Tour moves to Maryland on Thursday
By: Steve Bennett
For the third time in four years, tournament host (and defending champion) Tiger Woods will sit out the AT&T National, this time to rest a sore elbow. Woods has won the last two times he’s played this tournament, so his absence opens things up for what will be another strong field at Congressional…
Hunter Mahan (15/1): Mahan’s track record at Congressional is outstanding. In this tournament he went T8 both last year and in 2011, second in 2009 and T12 in 2008. After a rough go of it in the early spring, he’s finished no worse than T26 in his past five starts, including a T4 at the U.S. Open two weeks ago.
Bo Van Pelt (30/1): He hasn’t played well in 2013, logging just one top-10. But a year ago at Congressional, Van Pelt entered the final round in a tie with Tiger Woods, but had to settle for a solo-runner up, two strokes behind Woods. Van Pelt also finished T14 in the 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional. He could easily be the next surprise winner in what has been a wild year.
Jim Furyk (30/1): It’s fair to wonder whether the 43-year-old is starting to decline, having gone top-10 just twice this year, and missing the cut in two of his past four starts (including two weeks ago at the U.S. Open). But he has fared well when this tournament has been held at Congressional, recording three top-10's in four starts. And while last year’s T34 here is underwhelming, he did finish strong with a 69 on Sunday.
Jason Day (15/1): He already has five top-10's this season, including two weeks ago at the U.S Open. Day went T8 at this tournament a year ago, and he profiles strong statistically off the tee (299.8 yards, 12th on the Tour) and on the greens (.534 strokes gained, 21st on the Tour).
Ryan Palmer (40/1): He had a hot streak extinguished two weeks ago at the U.S. Open, where Palmer missed the cut at Merion. But prior to that, he had gone top-15 in three of his previous four starts, including two top-5 finishes. Palmer placed 21st at the 2011 U.S. Open, held at Congressional, and went T15 at this tournament a year ago.