Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cincinnati at Arizona
The Diamondbacks look to build on their 10-1 record in Patrick Corbin's last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Arizona is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-120)

Game 901-902: Colorado at Washington (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 15.470; Washington (Haren) 14.461
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Over

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Philadelphia (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 13.356; Philadelphia (Pettibone) 14.778
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under

Game 905-906: Miami at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Turner) 15.354; San Francisco (Zito) 14.628
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+120); Over

Game 907-908: Atlanta at Milwaukee (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 14.465; Milwaukee (Hand) 15.956
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120); Under

Game 909-910: Cincinnati at Arizona (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.325; Arizona (Corbin) 16.445
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-120); Under

Game 911-912: LA Dodgers at San Diego (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.659; San Diego (Volquez) 14.507
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Over

Game 913-914: Baltimore at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.702; Toronto (Wang) 18.216
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+100); Under

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Colome) 15.777; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 14.238
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+145); Over

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 14.688; Kansas City (Davis) 16.180
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-135); Under

Game 919-920: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Walters) 16.068; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.102
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+140); Over

Game 921-922: Boston at Detroit (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Webster) 14.179; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.615
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under

Game 923-924: Oakland at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 15.502; Seattle (Harang) 14.021
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-140); Over

Game 925-926: Houston at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 14.957; Cubs (Wood) 15.577
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-160); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-160); N/A

Game 927-928: Texas at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Perez) 15.833; St. Louis (Miller) 15.223
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+170); Over

Game 929-930: Pittsburgh at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Lirano) 16.957; LA Angels (Williams) 15.152
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115); Over

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

DUNKEL INDEX

NHL

Boston at Chicago
The Bruins look to bounce back from their 6-5 loss in Game 4 and take advantage of a Chicago team that is 5-14 in its last 19 games after allowing 5 goals or more in the previous game. Boston is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+130)

Game 59-60: Boston at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 13.940; Chicago 12.987
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+130); Over

WNBA

Seattle at Tulsa
The Shock look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games versus Western Conference opponents. Tulsa is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-3 1/2)

Game 651-652: Chicago at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 109.529; Indiana 111.920
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2 1/2; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 147
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: Seattle at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 105.471; Tulsa 110.920
Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 5 1/2; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 3 1/2; 148
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-3 1/2); Under

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Bryan Power

Texas vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis

This might be a high price range, but I'm willing to lay the juice in this instance as Shelby Miller toes the rubber. The Cardinals lost yesterday's series opener, which was the first time the teams had met since the 2011 World Series. But Saturday should be a far different story....

Shelby Miller is having an outstanding season.  He is 8-4 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.961 WHIP.  His strikeout to walk ratio is 96 to 19 as his team start record is 10-4.  But here at home is where he's been most effective.  In seven starts, he is 5-1 (6-1 TSR) w/ a 0.99 ERA and 0.750 WHIP.  His KW ratio is 55-7. In his most recent start, he threw five scoreless innings against the Cubs, allowing only two hits. His KW ratio over the last three starts is 24-2.

Meanwhile, for Texas, Martin Perez lost his 1st start of the season. He lasted only 5.3 innings and gave up four runs.  His WHIP ended up being 2.064. Perez is ill-suited to deal with a St. Louis lineup that comes in averaging over five runs per game.  Furthermore, the Cards are an outstanding 22-4 off a loss this season and have only lost back to back games one time since the end of April.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Matt Fargo

Minnesota vs. Cleveland
Pick: Minnesota

We are catching the Twins in a good spot and at an even better price. Minnesota lost the opener of this series last night which snapped its three-game winning streak as it got handcuffed by Scott Kazmir in a very rare quality start. The Twins are now four games under .500 but with no team running away with anything, they are just six games back in the American League Central. Additionally, Minnesota is 73 in its last 10 games following a loss and it looks to continue that with P.J. Walters taking the hill. He has been pretty solid this season as he has posted a 3.23 ERA through five starts with three of those being quality outings. He is coming off a loss against Detroit but it was only two bad pitches that led to two home runs which did him in. He faced the Indians twice in Cleveland last year and the Twins won both games. Cleveland has won three in a row and seven of its last nine games and I feel that is where we are getting a lot of this value from. Some of that is also coming from the recent solid pitching or Corey Kluber who has a 2.05 ERA over his last three starts. His last two starts were by far his best of the season as he allowed one run in eight innings two starts ago and pitched eight shutout innings last time out. Those starts are perfect go against spots as we fade a non-elite pitcher coming off two or more top quality outings. The Indians are 2-9 in Kluber's last 11 home starts.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Marc Lawrence

Colorado vs. Washington
Pick: Colorado

When Colorado sends Jhoulys Chacin to the mound against Dan Haren in the third game of this four game set in the nation's capitol Saturday afternoon the Rockies will do so knowing Chacin has cashed in his last two starts against the Nats as well as seven of his last nine team starts during the month of June. With Haren in wobbly form at 0-7 with a 6.25 ERA in his last seven starts, and just 2-5 his last seven home team starts during June, look for more of the same this afternoon.  We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Jesse Schule

Cincinnati vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona

After starting the season 9-0, Patrick Corbin had a chance to become the Major League's first 10 game winner, in fact he had a few chances. He's failed to register a decision in each of his last three starts, but he continue to pitch very well, especially at home.

Corbin (9-0, 2.28 ERA) allowed just two runs on two hits while fanning seven over eight innings in a 3-2 Arizona loss to Miami in his last start. His numbers at home are very impressive, with a record of 5-0, 1.71 ERA in seven starts at Chase Field. Those are some pretty good stats in a park that's not known to be kind to pitchers.

The D'Backs will hope that the bats can remain hot, after an offensive explosion at home against the Reds in the series opener last night. Paul Goldschmidt who leads the league in RBIs (65) was 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs, and he had some help from Jason Kubel, who was 4-for-5 with a double and an RBI.

That's not good news for Cincinnati's Mike Leake, who will get the start opposite Corbin tonight. Leake (7-3, 2.64 ERA) has pitched well, winning consecutive starts and allowing just two runs over 15 innings. He won't have fond memories of his last visit to Chase Field though, getting "chased" from the game after just 4 1/3 innings, not before he allowed six runs on nine hits.

Willie Bloomquist has hit .345 since being called up on June 1, and he was 2-for-5 last night. The 35 year old is 4-for-7 with a double in his career versus Leake. He's not the only one in the lineup who has hit Leake well, as a whole they are batting .357 against him.

Corbin looks to be in good shape to get his 10th win here tonight.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Sean Murphy

Texas vs. St. Louis
Pick: Texas

The Rangers took the opener of this series on Friday night and while most bettors are confident that the mighty Cardinals will bounce back on Saturday, I'm not so easily convinced.

St. Louis has yet to drop the first two games of a series at home this season. That's interesting to note as a similarly strong Cards club had already done that twice at this point last season, swept in three-game series' against both the Braves and Phillies here at home.

I believe the Rangers are more than capable of pulling off the feat, as they're suddenly hot again, winners of three games in a row after getting swept in a four-game series against Toronto last week.

Second-year starter Martin Perez will take the mound for just the second time this season for Texas. He's been serviceable at Triple-A but was roughed up in his lone previous big league outing this year, allowing nine hits and three earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 5-3 loss in Arizona back on May 27th. I do believe the lefty is capable of a better performance tonight, and he's catching the Cardinals at the right time as they've topped out at six runs in nine of their last 10 games overall, and are hitting just .234 against left-handed pitching at home this season.

Rookie phenom Shelby Miller will counter for St. Louis. He shut out the Cubs over five innings in his most recent start, but the fact that he needed 83 pitches to get through those five innings was somewhat concerning. It seems that he's fallen in love with the strikeout, perhaps a little too much over his last few outings. He's still winning, but things haven't come quite as easy over his last couple of starts. This will be a tough challenge as the Rangers are heating up at the plate again, averaging north of six runs per nine innings over their last five games.

The Rangers recent slide dropped them out of the 'elite' category in the eyes of a lot of bettors, but I think that's a little unfair. I still believe Texas is one of the best teams in baseball, right up there with St. Louis. The Rangers looked like a team that had a lot to prove last night, and I think we'll see a similarly focused effort lead to another victory on Saturday night.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Bruce Marshall

LA Dodgers vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego

While the LA media continues to overreact to rookie hotshot Yasel Puig, the Dodgers keep losing, now 11-22 on the road and a season-worst 12 games under .500 after last night's 5-2 loss at Petco Park, the sixth time the Padres have beaten the Blue in eight meetings this season. Moreover, they've outscored LA 47-25 in the process, and San Diego has also won 8 straight at home and 9 of its last 11 overall.  Of course, tonight also marks the return of Dodger hurler Zack Greinke to Petco for the first time since he suffered a broken collarbone (and missed more than a month on the DL) resulting from that brawl involving the Padres' Carlos Quentin back in early April. But Greinke has not been sharp on the road, where his ERA is a lofty 7.45, while the Padres' Edinson Volquez has been serviceable in recent outings, winning back-to-back starts vs. the Braves and Giants, respectively, while posting a decent 3.00 ERA in those efforts.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Art Aronson

Oakland vs. Seattle
Pick: Over

Dan Straily (4-2, 4.97 ERA) gets the call for the Athletics; Straily gave up six earned runs off eight hits with a walk over 4 2/3's innings of work vs. the Rangers on Monday. Straily for the most part has been pretty decent this year though, but he does sport a rather pedestrian 5.30 ERA on the road. Straily will be opposed by Aaron Harang (3-7, 5.73 ERA) who was shelled for 12 hits over five innings, surrendering four earned runs including a two-run shot to Josh Hamilton in a setback to the Angels on Monday. Like Straily, Harang has been decent at times and pretty horrible in others this season. The fact remains though, Harang owns a very average 4.19 ERA home record and note that he's also a deplorable 2-6 with a ballooned 6.53 ERA in all "night games". Straily has been anything but consistent and Harang is a confirmed "gas can"; consider a second look at the "over" in this one.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Jimmy Boyd

San Francisco Giants -140

Barry Zito may not have the win total many expected from him at this point in the season, but that does not change the fact that he has been lethal at home. Zito is 4-1 in his nine home starts and the Giants as a team are 7-2 in those games. He has a 2.06 ERA and has allowed just two home runs pitching from the comfort of his home field.

Miami will have an unproven talent getting the start today. While Turner has performed well in his four starts this season he has yet to meet an offense like San Francisco. The Giants have a .277 batting average at home and a 23-13 record. The Marlins will struggle to score against Zito when you consider they have a .208 batting average against left handed starters and they are scoring an average of 2.2 runs in those games.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Dave Price

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +124

Dating back to last season, the Rangers are on a 0-6 slide with Martin Perez on the mound. These six defeats were by an average of 2.8 runs. Also, Perez has given up at least four runs in each of his last four starts. I think it's safe to say the Cardinals have an advantage on the mound with Shelby Miller, who is carrying an ERA of 0.99 at home. The Cards are 5-0 in his last five home starts, winning them by an average of 4.0 runs. Take St. Louis on the run line.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Jeffrey Brandes

Colorado vs. Washington
Play: Under 7½

Pitchers:
COLORADO ROCKIES: JHOULYS CHACIN (R) ERA: 4.26 W/L: 5-3
WASHINGTON NATIONALS: DAN HAREN (R) ERA: 5.72 W/L: 4-8

In his last start, JHOULYS CHACIN held the Phillies to two runs and six hits in 8 2/3 innings. In his first five starts he had a 1.52 ERA.

DAN HAREN has allowed at least four runs in six innings or fewer in each of his last three starts. What he has going in his favor today is the fact that the Rockies are in the midst of a 5 game losing streak and they are under.500 for the first time since Opening Day.

Key Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Rob Vinciletti

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies    
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies dropped a tough one last night 4-3. Today we look for them to rebound behind young J. Pettibone who has won 5 of 6 at home with a 2.73 era. The Mets counter with Dillion Gee who was a hard luck 2-1 loser in Atlanta last out going 8+ shutout innings before allowing a walk off 2 run home run. One has to wonder how he will come back from that loss. Gee has a 5.68 road era and has allowed 11 earned runs on 17 hits with 4 home runs in 2 starts spanning 9 innings against Philadelphia this season. The Phils are 5-1 at home off a 1 run home loss and have won 8 of 12 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5. The Mets have lot 8 of 10 on Saturday and 9 of 11 when the total is 8 to 8.5. The Mets are also 0-7 off back to back road wins. Look for the Phillies to get the win here today.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Jim Feist

Baltimore at Toronto
Pick: Over

Baltimore is in Toronto, a great offensive park, with a great offense, second in runs scored, tops in slugging, and the over is 7-2 in the Orioles last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Baltimore is familiar with Chien-Ming Wang, who used to pitch with the Yankees, and he has a 5.91 ERA against them in 56 innings. He's allowed more hits than innings pitched in his return to the majors. Toronto is 13-6 over the total at home and the over is 20-8 in the Blue Jays last 28 on astroturf. And when these teams meet the over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings, as well as 6-0 over the total in the last 6 meetings in Toronto. Play the Orioles/Blue Jays over the total.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Bryan Leonard

Marlins / Giants Under 7.5

Runs should be at a premium on Saturday at AT&T Park when Jacob Turner and the lowly Marlins take on Barry Zito and the Giants. Turner has been very effective in four starts this season and will be facing the Giants for the first time, so it should take them a time or two through the lineup to get a feel for what Turner has to offer. Opponents are batting just .227 off of Turner this season and he has a 1.20 WHIP. It's a small sample size, but this is a very talented young pitcher who was a key piece of the Anibal Sanchez trade with Detroit. The talent is definitely there and he'll have the advantages of surprise and a good pitcher's park on his side on Saturday. The Marlins and their patchwork rotation have gotten some great starts lately and that tends to be contagious on teams with young staffs.

Barry Zito has been excellent at home this season with a 4-1 record and a 2.06 ERA in nine starts. The Marlins are bad at a lot of things, but especially hitting left handed pitching. The Marlins have the league's second-worst wOBA, OPS, and are tied for the worst OBP against southpaws this season. The Marlins have managed just three runs per game on the road this season entering Friday night's game. Giants pitchers have allowed just 3.52 runs per game at home this season. Assuming these numbers hold true and Zito continues his home success against one of the worst lineups in baseball, it should be a low-scoring affair.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

SPORTS WAGERS

Miami +137 over SAN FRANCISCO

The Marlins have now won 11 of their past 20 games. They came in here and won the first two games of this four-game set and today they get their biggest advantage on the hill of the three games so far with Jacob Turner opposing Barry Zito. Zito’s skills continue to be one of the worst among starters in all of baseball and that includes Triple AAA as well. Any success he's had is strictly a product of this park and pure luck. Zito is still walking too many hitters and striking out few. His 4.67 ERA is flattering when you consider he has a 1.59 WHIP, a 29% line-drive rate and a fly-ball bias profile. Most pitchers that have some success at this level have at least one go-to pitch that they utilize when they’re in trouble but Zito doesn’t have any pitch to go to. All of his offerings are well below average and he’s proven over and over that he can’t get out of trouble on his own. If this were a playoff game or a close pennant race in late August or September, the Giants would not have this guy anywhere near the mound. The Giants are sending him out there every fifth day because they have to pay him 20M this year and they’re not about to sit a guy that they have to cut a check to every week for $384,000. Unfortunately for Zito, this is an afternoon game that goes off at 1:05 PM in San Fran and AT&T Park is a much better place for hitter’s during the day because that damp nighttime air is not present. Zito gets credit for pitching every fifth day and winning some games but that doesn’t mean he’s worthy of backing. The metrics tell us just the opposite.

Jacob Turner is a guy to keep your eye on. He’s pitching behind the shadows of Jose Fernandez and with just four starts after being called up, he’s also well under the radar. In those four starts, Turner has yet to lose. With some run support, he could easily be 4-0. Turner has allowed three earned runs or less in all of his starts. Jacob Turner comes in with a 2.18 ERA and a skills supported 3.44 xERA. In 2011, this kid was a top prospect in the Tigers organization, who was virtually unhittable in the minors when he was on his game. He has pedigree and upside and he’s just 21 years old. This is the player that the Marlins received for Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante last July and the Fish did their homework. Turner had an elite groundball rate in the minors and he’s carried it over to this level. After four starts, Turner’s GB rate is 56%. He exhibits well above average control of an 89-98 mph fastball with late sink and a sharp-breaking curveball. Turner is a forgotten man because he’s had some setbacks since being a first round pick (9th overall) in 2009 but he has all the tools to be a front-line starter for years. Momentum, price and a huge pitching edge for the visitor make this choice an easy one for us.


N.Y. Mets +107 over PHILADELPHIA

The Phillies 19 day games are the fewest in the majors and they’ve won just seven of them. Jonathan Pettibone has kept the Phillies competitive for most of his 11 starts but now that the book is out on him, his very average arm and stuff is starting to get exposed. He doesn’t walk batters at an excessive pace but he doesn’t strike out batters at an acceptable clip either. Pettibone’s solid ERA in his first seven starts was a result of a fortunate strand rate more than skill. Over his last four starts, that strand rate has normalized and his ERA over that stretch was 4.62. xERA of 4.55 points to a below average pitcher. The Phillies have lost three of Pettibone’s last four starts by scores of 10-5, 9-1 and 9-2. His only win over that span was against the Marlins. Pitching at this park as the chalk, Pettibone has little appeal.

Dillon Gee has a high 37% hit% with runners on base compared to a norm of 27-28% for NL pitchers. This has been a primary reason for his inflated ERA. That said, his base skills with runners on base have been excellent for two years running and after a rough start, Gee’s velocity is returning as his arm strength has come back. Geee has allowed two runs or less in four straight starts. Over that span, covering 29 innings, he’s struck out 32 batters while walking four. That includes his last two against St. Louis and Atlanta. Gee’s 4.56 ERA is one of the more misleading numbers in all of baseball and the proof is in his 3.13 xERA. You won't be able to buy low on Gee for much longer and the fact that he’s a dog here is bordering on ludicrous. The Mets have won four of five and have an outstanding opportunity of making it five of six here.


Chicago +122 over KANSAS CITY

The White Sox went off for nine runs yesterday and they have quietly scored four runs or more in six straight games. With just one win over that span and just two wins over their last nine games, Chicago’s improved offense is going a little bit unnoticed, thus helping to create this overlay. The South Side has a great chance of keeping it going here against Wade Davis. Here’s Davis’s story from last season: Struggling starting pitcher with declining strikeout rate adds a couple of MPH to his FB and slider out of the pen and voila, a potential closer is born. Those who pegged Wade Davis as a sleeper entering 2013 probably hoped he'd make a seamless transition from relief to rotation, a story we've become accustomed to in recent years. However, Davis already has a history of mediocre results as a starter and he has not fared any better in his second attempt. While remnants of his impressive relief skills remain, his return to the rotation has basically been a bust. Davis has been unable to maintain his strikeout gains from 2012 and while it's still above his previous norms in 2013, it hasn't been enough to offset his poor control (75 IP - 30/65 – BB/K’s). Davis’s four-seam fastball velocity has fallen from 93 mph to 91, where it was during his starting days in Tampa. His ERA has taken a beating thanks to an abnormally high hit%, but it's partially a product of batters making strong contact off him (30% line-drive %). Davis has failed to make it to the sixth inning in nine of his 14 starts and with an alarming 1.74 WHIP, he seems unfit to make it as a starter in the majors.

Meanwhile, Jose Quintana just keeps refining his skills and improving. In his last two starts, Qunitana’s groundball rate was an off-the-charts 64%. He’s the only pitcher since June 11 to slow down the Blue Jays when he pitched into the seventh inning against them and allowed just two earned runs. Qunitana’s line-drive rate is 12 points lower than his mound opponents’ at 18% and while he can sometimes walk a tightrope, he’s a much better option taking back a price than Davis is spotting one. The Royals had been sailing along recently with 11 wins in 13 games but a 4-3 loss in Cleveland on Tuesday in game that they should have won four times over (bad base-running, numerous opportunities to score, a blown save, etc) has turned into three straight losses and this one is probably going to make it four for this streaky host.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Harry Bondi

MINNESOTA (+140) over Cleveland

We cashed in with a nice underdog on Boston last night and we'll do it again today here on the free pick page with the Twins. The great Bill Parcells used to always say, "You are what you are." So, despite the fact that Cleveland starter Corey Kluber has been terrific in two straight starts, it doesn't change the fact that for his career he is a sub-.500 pitcher with an ERA of 4.43 and before the last two appearances his team had lost six of his seven starts. But yet the oddsmaker has overreacted to what's happened most recently and installed Kluber today as a huge favorite. Remember, Kluber is just 1-6 with a 4.19 ERA in his home park in 14 appearances and the Twins are playing as well as they have all season, winning four of their last six. Let's go against the inflated favorite and grab the dog.

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Craig Davis

Free play of the day on the Detroit Tigers on the run line over the Boston Red Sox.

Forget the fact that Max Scherzer doesn't have a good record or ERA vs. Boston in his short career, let's look at the fact that he might be the most effective pitcher on his team... including Justin Verlander.

Scherzer hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a game since back on May 15. In fact, his ERA has gotten better and better with each start since that day and it's probably going to improve again after today.

Scherzer hasn't tasted defeat in 14 starts this year (10-0) and continues to be the only pitcher in the major leagues without a loss.

There's no reason to even mention Boston pitcher Allen Webster. He might surprise me, but I'll take my chances with a guy who has only two starts under his belt and both of them were losses by Boston.

His last outing was vs. Minnesota... 1 2/3 innings, six hits, eight runs, three walks. Ouch.

Detroit by four.

1♦ DETROIT -1.5

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Jeff Benton

Saturday freebie is a totals release on the Over in the A's-M's game at Safeco Field.

Friday night the teams put up 9 combined runs in an Over, and there could certainly be more in store in this game as a couple of struggling pitchers take to the hill at Safeco Field.

Dan Straily has been touched up for 12 runs and 17 hits over his last 18-plus innings of work as 2 of his last 3 starts have ended up playing Over the total. For the year, Straily's road ERA stands at 5.30. Included is a May start in the Emerald City that saw the Mariners light him up for 6 hits and 6 runs in just 5 frames of work. The Over is now 6-1-1 in Straily's last 8 road starts.

Going for the host will be Aaron Harang who followed up a complete game 2-hit shutout over Houston with a 12 hits and 4 runs allowed over 5 innings in a loss to the Angels. That setback dropped the righty to 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA his last 3 starts, and ran his Over/Under ledger to 8-3 on the high-side in his 11 starts this season.

With last night's Over, the Athletics are now 4-1-1 their last 6 games, while the Mariners are now 4-2 Over the total in their last 6 games.

Scoreboard operator keeps busy in this one, play the high.

3♦ OAKLAND-SEATTLE OVER

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 22

Brad Wilton

All about the Under this Saturday night at Chase Field when the Reds and Diamondbacks play the middle game of their 3 game set.

It will be Mike Leake and Patrick Corbin keeping the bats in check in this one. Leake enters this game with 1 run allowed or less in 6 of his last 7 starts, and the Under also happens to be 6-1 in those 7 trips to the bump.

Patrick Corbin happens to be one of the few hurlers without a loss to his account, as he enters 9-0 with an ERA of 2.28 for the season. The Under is 5-3 the last 8 times Corbin has made the start.

Last night's game was both a rare series Over, and a rare Over for the teams in general, as the Under is still 6-1-1 the last 8 times the Reds have been on the diamond, while the Snakes Under roll is 4-1 their last 5, and 5 of their last 7 overall have held Under the price.

Can't argue the Under numbers we are looking at, so go Under the price in Reds-Diamondbacks contest.

4♦ CINCINNATI-ARIZONA UNDER

Blade
useravatar
Online
213735 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44826
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
280836
Average Posts Per Hour:
7.0
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3561
Newest User:
Scott Davimos
Members Online:
2
Guests Online:
3165

Online: 
Blade, hoobastink

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com