NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 20

NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 20

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts
VegasInsider.com

Game 7 Quick Facts

The NBA has had 112 Game 7’s in playoff history

The home team is 90-23 (79%) in those games

The NBA Finals has featured 17 Game 7's and the road team has won just three (17.6%) of those finales.

Ten of the last 12 Game 7 outcomes have been decided by double digits

The 2013 postseason has featured two Game 7. Chicago defeated Brooklyn 99-93 on the road in the first round and Miami knocked off Indiana 99-76 in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Game 7 Notes - Miami vs. San Antonio

San Antonio has gone 3-4 in Game 7's. However, the team is 2-1 under head coach Gregg Popovich, the one loss coming in overtime.

The last Game 7 for the Spurs came in 2008, when they beat the Hornets 91-82 in the Western Conference semifinals.

Miami has gone 4-3 in Game 7's, the last instance coming in this year's Eastern Conference Finals (see above).

Two of the three losses for the Heat in Game 7 have come at American Airlines Arena. In the 2005 conference finals to the Pistons (88-82) and in the 2001 conference semifinals to the Knicks (83-82).

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 20

SAN ANTONIO (73 - 29) at MIAMI (81 - 23) - 6/20/2013, 9:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 57-47 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 95-81 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 103-74 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 76-57 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 271-209 ATS (+41.1 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all playoff games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 61-43 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-4 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


SAN ANTONIO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Miami
San Antonio is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami   
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Antonio


San Antonio at Miami
San Antonio: 14-6 ATS in playoffs games
Miami: 4-13 ATS off a win by 3 points or less

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Spurs at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-6, 189.5)

Best-of-seven series tied 3-3.

After losing a late lead in Game 6 in devastating fashion, the San Antonio Spurs attempt to become the first road team in 35 years to win Game 7 of the NBA Finals in Thursday’s decisive matchup with the Miami Heat. San Antonio had a five-point lead with 28.1 seconds left in regulation on Tuesday before Miami rallied to force overtime and eventually claim a 103-100 victory. The Heat haven’t won back-to-back games in four weeks.

Miami trailed by 13 points late in the third quarter of Game 6 and the home fans were scurrying to the exits when the Heat trailed by five points in the final half-minute. But Ray Allen drained the game-tying 3-pointer with 5.2 seconds left and Miami outplayed San Antonio over the second half of overtime to keep alive its hopes of winning back-to-back titles. “It’s so hard. It’s the hardest thing,” forward LeBron James said Wednesday of repeating as champions. “I said last year was the hardest thing I’ve ever done – winning my first. Last year don’t even come close to what we’ve gone through in this postseason and in these finals.” The 1978 Washington Bullets were the last team to win a road Game 7 in the NBA Finals, beating the Seattle SuperSonics.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Veteran guard Manu Ginobili said after Game 6 that he couldn’t see how his team could recover from the demoralizing loss. The mental side will be an important factor in Game 7 as will bouncing back physically, especially for 37-year-old power forward Tim Duncan. The first half of Game 6 was vintage Duncan as he scored 25 points on 11-of-13 shooting. But the future Hall of Famer had just five points after halftime. “There’s no being tired at this point,” Duncan said in his Wednesday media session. “We’ve got one more game to win, and that’s all that matters.” Forward Kawhi Leonard had a monster 22-point, 11-rebound performance in Game 6 but 3-point shooter Danny Green had his first poor game of the series, going 1-of-5 from behind the arc. Green has made an NBA Finals record 26 3-pointers.

ABOUT THE HEAT: James rebounded from a slow start to notch his fourth career NBA Finals triple-double with 32 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. He scored 18 points in the fourth quarter and made a key 3-pointer in the late rally that was punctuated by Allen’s tying 3-pointer. The health of guard Dwyane Wade is a major concern after he injured his surgically repaired left knee in the first half of Game 6. Wade has been ineffective for much of the postseason due to an injured right knee. “There’s one game left,” Wade said Wednesday. “Whatever you have inside of you, you muster it up. So I’ll be fine.” Center Chris Bosh rejected Green’s tying 3-point attempt at the end of overtime and has posted four double-doubles in five games after underachieving for most of the postseason.

TRENDS:

* The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.
* The Heat are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. win.
* The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* The over is 15-5-1 in the Heat's last 21 games playing on one days rest.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Miami is looking to become the fourth team to rally from a 3-2 deficit with two consecutive home victories. The others are the 1988 Los Angeles Lakers, the 1994 Houston Rockets and the 2010 Lakers.

2. Home teams have a 14-3 record in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

3. San Antonio is 4-0 in NBA Finals and only one of its previous series required a Game 7 – when the Spurs defeated the Detroit Pistons in 2005.

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Game 7 - Spurs at Heat
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The NBA season will receive full closure on Thursday with Game 7 between San Antonio and Miami in the Finals. The Spurs were minutes away and even seconds away from picking up the fifth championship in franchise history, but Miami never quit in an epic 103-100 overtime triumph to force the first Game 7 in the Finals since 2010.

Although San Antonio covered as seven-point underdogs, Miami improved to 13-0 straight-up the last 13 games off a loss on Tuesday. LeBron James converted only three field-goal attempts in the first three quarters before going off for 14 points in the fourth quarter. James lost his headband on a drive to the basket in the fourth, but never lost his head en route to a triple-double (32 points, 10 rebounds, 11 assists), while Ray Allen's three-pointer in the final seconds of regulation sent the game to overtime.

Allen's late trey kept hope alive for the 'over' of 192, as his three tied the game at 95-95. The Spurs squandered a 10-point lead heading into the final period and even a five-point edge with 20 seconds remaining in regulation. However, James and Allen each drilled shots from downtown, while Kawhi Leonard missed one of two free throws to keep the Heat hanging around.

The 'over' obviously cashed in the extra session with 13 points scored in the final five minutes, the fourth straight 'over' in this series. From the "You won't see this again" department, Tim Duncan put up one of his best halves in his career by shooting 11-of-13 from the floor for 25 points in the first 24 minutes. However, the future Hall-of-Famer scored just five points the rest of the way, while not registering a point in the final 21:30 of the game.
   
Manu Ginobili couldn't continue his magic from Game 5 (24 points), as the Spurs' guard scored just nine points in Game 6, while committing a costly turnover in the final minute of overtime. Danny Green's heroics from three-point range came up short on Tuesday, hitting just one trey after converting 25 three-pointers in the first five games of the series. One of the constants for the Spurs, Tony Parker, played excellent in the first half of Game 6, while scoring five crucial points in the last minute of regulation before Miami's late rally.

One of the major questions coming into Game 7 is the health of Dwyane Wade. The Heat guard banged knees early on with Ginobili, while putting up only two points (on two free throws) in the fourth quarter and overtime. Chris Bosh didn't hit a lot of big shots in Game 6, but his assist to Allen on the game-tying three-pointer and two clutch blocks in overtime helped lift the Heat to their third Game 7 since the "Big Three" joined forces in 2011.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David analyzes the success of the Heat in this decisive situation, "Since Miami created its "Big Three" of James, Wade, and Bosh, the team has faced two Game 7's. In those games, the Heat has gone 2-0 and both of the wins were by double-digits. However, Miami was trailing in both of those contests at halftime. In this year's Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana led 40-39 before getting outscored by 15 points (52-37) in the second-half. And in last year's conference finals, Boston led 53-46 at the break before Miami ran past the Celtics, 55-35 in the final two quarters, including a 28-15 fourth quarter."

The Heat cashed second-half bets in Game 6 as a seven-point favorite after trailing at the half, 50-44. David breaks down the profit opportunities so far in this series, "Betting halves in pro basketball is far from easy but based on the above trends, you could take San Antonio plus three points in the first-half of Game 7. Also, it helps to know that the Spurs have led the Heat in three of the last four games at the break and they were tied 49-49 in the other matchup (Game 4). In Game's 1 and 2, Miami led at half by three and five points respectively."

The famous Zig-Zag theory has been true from a straight-up perspective for the Heat since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals with each team alternating wins and losses the last 13 games. Will that hold up in Game 7? "Even though Miami didn't cover the number in Game 6, it did improve its record to 7-0 after a loss in the playoffs. San Antonio is also perfect off a loss in this year's postseason (4-0) and all of the wins have been by double-digits. It's hard to ignore that trend, plus it's hard to lay points against a Spurs team that is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS on the road in the playoffs. Not to mention that two of the three losses came in overtime. Technically, the Spurs have played one bad road game in the playoffs, which came in Game 2 at Miami and that game was close late in the third quarter too," David says.

This will be the third Game 7 of this postseason after Chicago knocked off Brooklyn in the first round and Miami eliminated Indiana in the conference finals. The Spurs are playing in their first Game 7 since downing the Hornets on the road in the 2008 conference semifinals, while the Heat have won four of six home games in franchise history in Game 7. Home teams have compiled an impressive 90-23 (79%) record all-time in Game 7 playoff history in the NBA.

From the totals perspective, David provides his condolences for 'under' backers in Game 6, "As bad as I felt for bettors who had the Spurs on the money-line in Game 6, I'm going to extend my apologies for anybody who took the 'under' instead. The perfect combination of missed free throws and made 3-pointers set up the improbable extra session. Allen's late-game heroics not only help the game go 'over,' but it also cashed the second-half 'over' for bettors that we're chasing their total bets."

The total will still stay relatively in the same area for Thursday, "The number on Game 7 is hovering between 189 and 190 at most books. The 'over' has cashed in four straight games and it could easily be 6-0 in this series. At the same time, you can certainly argue that the total should be 3-3. If you watch and bet the Association daily, then you understand that it's a "Make or Miss" league. Both teams have great shooters and when they're on, they'll both bust triple digits easily. Prior to Game 6, San Antonio has never given up 100-plus in three straight games this season," David points out.

The Heat opened up as six-point favorites for Game 7, as the number has stayed pat through Wednesday. The final contest on the NBA season can be seen nationally at 9:00 PM EST on ABC.

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2013 NBA Playoffs

Spurs had a 5-point lead with 0:23 left in Game 6, couldn't close series out, how do they react 46 hours after OT loss? In their three series wins, Ginobili's plus/minus was +3/+6/+19.......in three losses, -23/-22/-21. If Ginobili dribble penetrates, James is playing free safety at foul line for steals that start Heat fast breaks. Miami is now 0-8 vs spread in game following its last eight wins- they're 5-7 vs spread as home favorite in playoffs. If you add up first 2:00 of all six games, it is Spurs with 31-19 edge. San Antonio is 8-2 vs spread on road for this playoff season (7-3 SU). Miami held Green to 1-7 in Game 6; who will step up and make a big shot in last minute, like Allen did in Game 6? 12 of Miami's 15 wins in playoffs have been by 10+ points.

Armadillosports.com

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