Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

Jeff Alexander

Seattle Mariners +165

The Mariners are a value play at this price given the struggles of Joe Blanton, who is 1-10 with an ERA of 5.87. He's 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA at home and 0-4 with a 5.12 ERA against division opponents. Also, Blanton is 2-6 on the moneyline in his last 8 starts versus Seattle. Jeremy Bonderman has made only three starts, but he's been lights out in his last two, giving up just 1 run in 14 innings.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

Don Best Consensus

Padres at Giants
Pick: Over

The over is 7-3 in the Giants' last 10 Tuesdays games and the over is 7-2 in Giants' RHP Matt Cain's last 9 starts vs. San Diego Padres. The over is also 6-2-1 in Cain's last 9 home starts against the Padres. In games that Padres' RHP Cashner starts, the over is 4-6, and in games that Giants' RHP Cain starts, the over is 9-4 this season. Play Padres-Giants over.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

Wunderdog

Tampa Bay at Boston GM 1
Pick: Tampa Bay +105

The Rays are just four behind in the loss column, so these games become doubly important. Boston comes limping home after dropping three of four in Baltimore. Alfredo Aceves has been awful the last two seasons, and was even demoted to Pawtucket for awhile this season, as he has struggled to a 5.58 ERA. The Rays have not fared well on the road where they are under .500 for the season, but there has been a much better outcome when facing a right hander on the road, where they are an impressive 10-4 in their last 14. The Red Sox are a miserable 1-5 in Aceves' last six home starts, and Boston is 21-43 in their last 64 vs. a winning team. Play on Tampa Bay in Game One.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

MLB Predictions

Oakland Athletics +161

The Rangers took the first game of this important series vs their division rivals 8-7, but the Rangers had lost 6 straight prior to last night's victory. Texas is now 39-31 trailing the A's in the AL West who are 42-30 on the year (20-18 on the road). Before last night the Rangers had scored 2 runs or fewer in 6 straight games as their bats have gone cold. Tonight they will be facing a starting pitcher who has really gotten into form lately. Jarrod Parker is 5-6 on the season with a 4.45 ERA, .259 OBA and 1.35 WHIP. After a rough start to the season Parker posted a 2-2 record and 3.62 ERA over 5 starts in May. He has made three starts in June going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, .171 OBA and 0.84 WHIP. He has made a start in Texas going 7 innings allowing 6 hits and 3 earned runs with 5 strikeouts and just 1 walk. The Rangers will counter with their ace Yu Darvish who is 7-2 on the season with a 2.64 ERA, .181 OBA and 0.94 WHIP. There is no doubt he has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year, but when the team behind you isn't hitting it makes it tough to win. The Rangers are just 1-4 in Darvish's last 5 starts. The A's have faced Yu Darvish once this season in Texas and won 1-0. Take note that the A's are 9-1 in their last 10 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. They are also 22-8 in their last 30 overall, 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog, 5-2 in their last 7 games as a road underdog, and 4-0 in Parker's last 4 starts. The Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 as a home favorite and 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite between -151 and -200. Tonight's game should be a pitching duel and at +161 I will take the first place A's over a slumping Rangers team.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

JEFF BENTON

Your Tuesday freebie is the Under as the Dodgers play the Yankees in the Bronx this evening.

New York was able to get 6 runs in their most recent contest on Sunday in Anaheim, but not sure they are out of their offensive slump based on one game, as the Yankees had only plated 18 runs in their previous 8 games prior to Sunday's 6-spot.

The Yankees enter this home game tonight on a 7-2-1 Under run their last 10 times on the diamond, and they will be facing impressive rookie Hyun-Jin Ryu who is 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA for the season. Over his last 3 starts, Jin Ryu's ERA is just 1.59 with only 4 runs surrendered in 22-plus innings of work.

Hard to see the Yanks struggling attack lighting up the scoreboard in this one.

Phil Hughes will go for New York, and while he has been shaky, it should be noted that 4 of his last 5 starts have ended up holding Under the total.

Series opener in the Bronx to stay Under the total.

3* L.A.DODGERS-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner for Tuesday is a matinee contest, as I like the Atlanta Braves in the first game of a doubleheader, as they host intradivision-rival New York and my money is on the rookie in the first game - starting left-hander Alex Wood, the Braves' second-round pick in the 2012 First-Year Player Draft. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound fireballer will make his first Major League start.

He has several appearances out of the bullpen, so there should be a comfort zone he's used to, including an inning of work his last time out, against the defending World Series champion San Francisco.

Wood, who has nine strikeouts in 7-2/3 innings of work, will have his hands full in challenging New York's Matt Harvey, but I'm confident he'll outduel another young prospect.

Doubleheaders are never easy, especially when there is a big discrepancy between teams, and the better of the two is at home.

Wood is used to starting, as he started in hiis first 10 appearances for Double-A Mississippi this season, going 4-2 with a 1.26 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 57 innings. Wood made his last start for Mississippi on May 25.

This is a big step up - from Mississippi to the Mets - but I'll take my chances.

2* ATLANTA

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

BRAD WILTON

Tonight's comp play winner is the Blue Jays on the Run Line over the Rockies.

It took until June, but the Jays are finally playing the way the experts thought they would play at the start of the season. Toronto has won a season-high 6 in a row, and 10 of 13 overall, as they host the Rockies once again tonight. All 6 of the wins during their current streak have come by 2 runs or more, including last night's 2-0 win in the series opener.

The Rockies are on a 2-4 slide their last 6 games, and I sure do not trust starter Jeff Francis to get Colorado back on track, especially when you consider the southpaw has lost 4 of his 6 decisions for the year, and still owns an ERA that is close to 6.

Esmil Rogers has been solid in the rotation over his last 2 June starts, allowing just 2 runs in 11 innings of work. If Rogers can hold down the fort for 5 or 6 quality innings, I see no reason the hot-swinging Blue Jays cannot open a lead on Francis and take this one by at least 2 runs again tonight.

Run Line release on the Jays.

4* TORONTO -1.5

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

GoodFella

Kansas City +105

We cashed a (2*) on KC last night, and I am going right back to the "streaking" Royals tonight. Of course these Indians are "streaking" in the wrong direction, and they are sending out big time hit or miss SP Ubaldo Jiminez tonight. KC sends out Santana, and he has been fantastic for these Royals. He has already tossed a gem vs these Indians this season, and add on the fact that the slumping Tribe has 2 very important pieces of their lineup out in Swisher and Cabrera, and of course they are w/out their closer Perez as well. Simply riding the HOT team playing with extreme confidence and a defnite bullpen edge as well as a SP edge IMO. I expect Santana to "limit" the Tribe and out pitch Ubaldo and hand the ball over to the Royals very solid back end of their bullpen.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

Joseph D'Amico

St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +119

The Cards own the best record in the MLB at 45-25 while the Cubs are 16 Games Back in 4th place in the Central at 28-40. The powerful St. Louis offense averages 5.04 RPG and boasts a Team BA of .276. Molina, Carpenter, Craig, and Beltran are all hitting over .300. Chicago's lineup posts a full run less per contest at 4.01 RPG, batting just .241. Schierholtz is the only everyday batter near .300. Adam Wainwright leads the NL at 10-3 and the RH has 97 K's with only 9 Walks. The veteran has won 5 straight starts. He gets run support as well, as the Cardinals have outscored opponents 77-33 when he starts this season. The Cubs have Jeff Samardzija at the bump. The RH is 3-7 and has allowed 9 ER's on 18 hits in his L2 outings alone. The Cubs are 0-5 their L5 games played at the Cardinals and 18-39 their L57 games played vs. the NL Central. The Cardinals are 52-25 their L77 games played at home and 7-1 in Wainwright's L8 starts against the NL Central. This is a no-brainer. I lean towards the Cardinals on the RUN LINE.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

SPORTS WAGERS

Milwaukee -106 over HOUSTON

Without question the most undervalued team in the majors are these Brewers. Loaded with talent from top to bottom, it just doesn’t make sense that the Crew own the third worst record in MLB. The first four hitters in the Brewers lineup are batting .301, .331, .319 and .281 respectively and none of those are named Ryan Braun. Jonathan Lucroy usually bats fifth or sixth and is hitting .271 and already has six jacks and 37 RBI’s. Also keep your eye on 2B Scooter Gennett. He and SS Jean Segura will at some point form a deadly up-the-middle duo that could quickly become the best in baseball. Gennett is hitting just .214 but don’t let that fool you, as this kid is patient and has made great contact but has hit the ball right at people. In any event, the Brewers are going to offer up some outstanding value in certain spots because of their poor record and it begins here with Alfredo Figaro. Figaro has been one of the more skilled starters in the game with the bases empty, showing elite command and a pronounced ground ball tilt of 56%. An inflated 29% hr/f with the bases empty has resulted in him giving up an inordinate number of solo jacks. His skills with runners on base have been really good too and his command gets even better. Figaro has 37 K’s and just seven walks in 47 innings. His average fastball velocity is sitting at 95.3 mph, the highest fastball velocity of any SP not named Strasburg or Harvey. The window for buying low on Figaro is closing quickly and the time to buy aggressively is right now.

Jordan Lyles is coming off the best start of his career versus Seattle, where he threw seven scoreless innings and struck out 10. That’s nice but this isn’t Seattle at Safeco. At home, Lyles has a BAA of .300 and an ERA of 5.00. This start will mark his seventh start against the Brewers, who are a former division rival. In 35 IP against them, he is 1-3 with a 4.11 ERA with an xERA of 4.92. This is a classic case of buying low and selling high because it is of our humble opinion that the Brewers should be about -170 chalk here, making this the best play of the day.


CINCINNATI -1½ +119 over Pittsburgh

How can this one turn out any other way with Charlie Morton opposing Mat Latos? Latos could have been the poster-boy for park effects. With two stellar seasons in pitcher-friendly San Diego, Latos was traded to homeriffic Cincinnati before the 2012 season. But as we sometimes forget, elite skills don’t care about a park’s dimensions. The consistency of Latos’ three-year run puts him at the edge of the NL’s upper tier starting pitchers. Overall Lato’s groundballs are on the climb, his walks are decreasing each year (earlier this season, Latos went a stretch of five straight starts with less than 2 BB) and his strikeout rate is virtually the same, pushing his command to new heights. 14 starts into 2013 and Mat Latos has proven to be as reliable and consistent as any pitcher in the game. Latos has faced the Pirates five times in the last two seasons, with four of those resulting in pure gems. In his career, he has faced them eight times, where he is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 51 IP. The Pirates have really been gripping the bats tight, as they have a .234 BA in the month of June.

Charlie Morton is making just his second MLB start of the season, due to last June's Tommy John surgery. He did make four starts at Indianapolis (Triple-AAA) prior to being called up, in which he walked 10 batters in 19 innings. In his forst start this year at home, Morton went five innings against the Giants and allowed seven hits and four runs in a 10-0 loss. He has pitched against the Reds 12 times in his career, going 4-6 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Now making just his second start in the past 369 days and not having the luxury of pitching in a pitcher’s park, Charlie Morton is likely to get blown up here.   


Kansas City +106 over CLEVELAND

It may surprise you to learn that the Royals have won 11 of their past 13 games and we’ll step in and ride this hot team here with Earvin Santana throwing. Santana is having a great year and it comes with full skills support. Santana has seen his swinging strike rate jump from 8.4% in 2012 to 12.9% this year. This after he posted a 21/4 K/BB in 23 IP during spring training. Santana has elite control (13 BB in 92 IP) a good strikeout rate and a strong groundball tilt of 49%. Santana’s deadly slider and his ability to hit the strike zone with all of his pitches make him extremely difficult to face. Over his last three starts, Santana is 2-0 with an 0.83 ERA and his chances of thriving again tonight are much better than that of his mound opponent.

Ubaldo Jimenez has shown flashes from his Colorado ace days at times this season. His skills vs. LH bats have been some of the best in the game. However, the Royals will have at least six RH bats in the lineup tonight so before you speculate on a re-birth, note that his control has been horrible vs. RH bats, making Jimenez a big risk. Jiminez has walked 34 batters in 68 frames and has an xERA of 4.63. He also has a troublesome 1.37 WHIP but a high strand rate over the past month has kept his troubles hidden. Also note that Jiminez has been terrible at home in six starts with a 2-3 record, 17 walks issued and a 7.53 ERA over 28 innings. Wrong side favored.


L.A. ANGELS -1½ +120 over Seattle

Jeremy Bonderman is coming off back-to-back starts in which he allowed a meager 6 hits and one earned run over 14 innings. However, both those starts came at home against Houston and a then struggling Yankees squad. His good results over those two games are a product of Safeco Field and nothing else. Bonderman has not regained the form that made him an average pitcher with the Tigers a few years back and he’s not going to thrive on the road like he did at home. In his first start of the year at Target Field, Bonderman was hammered for nine hits and seven runs in 4.2 frames and you can expect something similar here. Bonderman missed all of 2010 and 2011. He’s a two-pitch pitcher now with a fastball and slider and he rarely misses a bat. The 30-year-old put up less-than-impressive numbers at Triple-A this year, with a 4.52 ERA and only 33 K’s in 63.2 innings to go along with an ugly 1.49 WHIP. Remember, that is at Triple-A. With that kind of strikeout rate, the most likely scenario here is that Bonderman is torched again, just like he was in his only other road start.

The Angels are heating up again with four wins in five games and having scored five runs or more in all five games. In total, the Halos have scored 36 times over their past five ball games and have hit .370 over that span. Joe Blanton’s surface stats aren’t pretty with just one win and 10 losses to go along with a 5.87 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. However, he’s precisely the reason why we buy skills and not stats. Blanton has elite control with just 14 walks in 77 frames. He has a strong groundball/fly-ball profile of 47%/31% and his strikeout rate is slightly above average too. In fact, over his last two starts, Blanton has walked two and struck out 17 over 13 frames. The culprit has been Blanton’s extremely unlucky 38% hit rate and 65% strand rate. Those rates will normalize and Blanton’s ERA will come way down. With just one win in 13 starts and pure bad luck, expect the Angels to be a little extra jacked up here in support of Blanton to get him that second elusive win. The Angels hung an 11 on the M’s last night. Against Bonderman, the Angels are very likely to put up another crooked number.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

SPORTS WAGERS

San Antonio/MIAMI Under 191

After three straight high-scoring affairs in San Antonio, the scene now shifts back to South Beach, where the NBA season will conclude this week. The previous two games of this back-and-forth series saw scores that reached a combined 202 points for Game 4 and an incredible 218 for Game 5. Because of this, the number is now inflated, giving us a good under opportunity. In case anyone forgot, the first two games in Miami were slower-paced games than what transpired in San Antonio. In Game 1, both teams, while getting a feel for each other, put up only 180 points, and then followed that with 187 points in Game 2 as the Heat blew out the Spurs. Even though these teams are definitely more familiar with one another and their tendencies, there stands to be some adjustments that make a slower pace more likely for this one.

For starters, Miami will most likely remove Mike Miller from the starting line-up and insert either Udonis Haslem or Chris Anderson in his place. Miller has been held scoreless in 46 minutes of game-time in the past two games, and Spoelstra will like look for production elsewhere. The obvious choice is either Haslem or Anderson, which would result in Tiago Splitter and/or Boris Diaw playing more minutes. This chess-match will naturally result in a slower-paced game as the Heat may have to end up going away from their small-ball philosophy, which the Spurs seemingly found an answer to in Game 5 by inserting Manu Ginobili into the line-up. It is unreasonable to expect the Spurs to shoot 60% again from the field as they head back to Miami. On the defensive end is where San Antonio is going to win a game in Miami, and that starts by continuing to force LeBron and Wade into shooting jump shots, and having Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green doing their best at disrupting the transition play of the league’s most destructive force in the open court. Green and Leonard have done an excellent job all series long playing perimeter defense, and that should continue even with the series going back to Miami.

Incidentally, we are sticking by our series prediction of the Spurs winning, and would not recommend hedging since there is no value in doing so.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner for tonight is on the New York Mets, getting it done in the second game of their doubleheader with the Atlanta Braves. And make note, I want you listing Zack Wheeler only, as he's the focal point tonight at Turner Field.

The Mets' top pitching prospect, the right-hander is making his long-awaited debut tonight after making 13 starts right here at Triple-A Las Vegas. For the 51s, the fiery northpaw went 4-2 with a 3.93 ERA, 73 strikeouts and 27 walks over 68-2/3 innings.

I ran across an interesting stat, even though I still like watching - and favoring - pichers making their major league debut - those doing so at Turner Field are 0-7 with three no-decisions.

Wheeler could be the first to score a win, and I see him pitching well enough to keep the Mets in it long enough.

Take the Mets and list Wheeler.

2♦ N.Y. METS

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

Joe Gavazzi

San Antonio vs. Miami
Play: Under 191

As predicted, the Spurs rebounded with a resounding 114-104 Game #5 victory pushing Miami to the brink of elimination. In that game, the Spurs erupted to shoot 60% from the field led by a reborn performance from Ginobili. By this time, all are aware that Miami is 12-0/loss not having lost consecutive games since January 8th. That includes 6-0 SU, ATS in the Playoff with their average margin of victory by 20 PPG in games where they have allowed only 85 PPG. In addition, the zigzag (loser of the previous game covers in the next game) is now on a 10-0 ATS run in Miami games. Miami may get the win but the Spurs proved here in Game #1 that they are capable of winning on this floor. We are holding a series play on San Antonio at +230. Just a small opinion on the underdog Spurs tonight if you are not holding series play. But our stronger play is on UNDER 191 as the embarrassed Miami defense is the strongest unit on the floor in this home court elimination game. Top play on the UNDER 191.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

Nelly

Houston Astros + over Milwaukee Brewers

This interleague series lacks some panache as these teams were division foes last year but despite the poor overall record Houston is a team showing some promise. The Astros have won four of the last five and the pitching for Houston has shown great improvement, allowing four or fewer runs in nine of the last 10 games. With eight straight starts of at least six innings the bullpen is in great shape entering this series and Jordan Lyles has been doing his part with a quality start in four of his last five starts, allowing two or fewer runs in six straight outings. His ERA is down to 3.48 and if not for one rough start against Texas he would have very strong numbers for the year. Milwaukee is just 7-15 in the last 23 road games despite being favored in this matchup and starter Alfredo Figaro is a bit of wild card. He threw seven scoreless innings in his last start but the caveat is that outing came in Miami against the worst offense in baseball. Houston strikes out a lot but Figaro has not been producing a high strikeout rate and he has allowed four runs in two of his three starts this season as his overall numbers are greatly aided by strong bullpen showings. The Milwaukee bullpen has been good but it has been a heavily worked unit and the Milwaukee offense lacks punch right now with Ryan Braun on the DL. On the year the Brewers are batting just .242 while scoring just 3.6 runs per game vs. right-handed pitchers on the road as the overall statistics are a bit inflated with the high scoring at Miller Park. Milwaukee is only two games better than Houston in the win column despite the reputations of these teams and the Astros are starting to look like a much more respectable team.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

Harry Bondi

NY YANKEES (-110) over LA Dodgers

The LA Dodgers continue to plod along and play uninspiring baseball and have really struggled all season against the better teams in the league, losing more than 15 units with a 15-27 record vs. winning teams. We get some real value with the line here tonight since the Dodgers are sending Hyun-jin Ryu to the hill. The South Korean is 6-2 2.85 ERA, but he has not been nearly effective on the road (4.21 ERA) as he has been at home (1.88 ERA). The Yankees have also gone 14-7 this season against southpaws and have the much better bullpen in this match-up. Lay the short number with the Yankees at home.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

Bob Balfe

Spurs +7.5

I think the Heat will win this game, but they really are not worthy to be 7.5 points favorites.  The Spurs have been the much better team in this series and I understand that the winner in every game so far has blown out the other team, but I think we are going to see a lower scoring type game today.  Put it this way.  The winner of this game will win the championship.  If the Spurs win they obviously win, but if Miami wins and forces a game 7 there is no way we can possibly go against Lebron James who is the poster boy of the NBA in a Game 7.  To be honest I don’t think James is ready to be placed in the same sentence as Kobe and Jordan, but he has been invested in by so many people that there is no turning back now.  I am looking for a tight game with the Spurs covering.  As a handicapper there are some series that are just not worth betting.  This is one of them.  I know it is not the best thing to say, but I give you all my complete honesty.  You don’t have to wager on a game just because it’s a big one.  A game is just a game be it Game 7 of the NBA Finals or Week 4 in the NFL.  Take the Spurs.


A’s +160 over Rangers

Parker/DarvishThis is the lowest I have seen Darvish listed at in a while.  He is a great pitcher for sure, but his team is struggling to get him runs and I am pretty sure the A’s give him more trouble than any other team in baseball.  Jarrod Parker has been Darvish like in his last three starts and I think we will see a fine pitchers duel today.  This is a good price for the A’s who are able to win games against Texas in this fashion.  Oakland can hit the ball well and I see a lot of value in this line.  Take Oakland.

Blade
useravatar
Online
199101 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
43392
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
267420
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.9
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3355
Newest User:
Robert Rae
Members Online:
1
Guests Online:
2409

Online: 
Blade

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com