Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 16

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 16

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Miami at San Antonio
The Spurs look to bounce back from their 109-93 loss in Game 4 and build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. San Antonio is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+1 1/2)

Game 709-710: Miami at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 125.185; San Antonio 134.285
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+1 1/2); Over

MLB

Detroit at Minnesota
The Twins look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 2-6 in Doug Fister's last 8 starts as a road favorite. Minnesota is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145)

Game 901-902: St. Louis at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lyons) 13.543; Miami (Nolasco) 14.695
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130); Over

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.371; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.445
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Under

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Garza) 13.415; NY Mets (Hefner) 14.502
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Under

Game 907-908: San Francisco at Atlanta (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.030; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.142
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+135); Over

Game 909-910: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 14.370; Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.828
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Over

Game 911-912: Arizona at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.814; San Diego (Richard) 14.216
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-125); Under

Game 913-914: Philadelphia at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 13.922; Colorado (Chacin) 15.193
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-115); Under

Game 915-916: Boston at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.804; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.637
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Over

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davis) 16.777; Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 15.760
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+140); Under

Game 919-920: Detroit at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 14.499; Minnesota (Walters) 15.404
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Over

Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Santiago) 14.874; Houston (Keuchel) 16.088
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Over

Game 923-924: Toronto at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Wang) 16.404; Texas (Holland) 15.497
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Under

Game 925-926: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.160; Oakland (Colon) 15.717
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-130); Under

Game 927-928: NY Yankees at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.976; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.953
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+130); Over

Game 929-930: Washington at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.291; Cleveland (Kluber) 16.131
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Over

WNBA

Chicago at Atlanta
The Sky look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Chicago is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4)

Game 601-602: Indiana at Washington (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.417; Washington 107.537
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 8; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Chicago at Atlanta (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 116.188; Atlanta 118.057
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 153
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4); Under

Game 605-606: Phoenix at Tulsa (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 110.967; Tulsa 102.651
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 166
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6 1/2; 169 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-6 1/2); Under

Game 607-608: Seattle at Connecticut (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 105.471; Connecticut 116.533
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 11; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 8 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-8 1/2); Over

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 16

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals at Miami MarlinsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: St Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Redbirds and the Fish conclude a three-game series at Marlins Park Sunday where Florida's Ricky Nolasco looks to put a halt his losing ways. Nolasco toes the slab having dropped 14 of his last 17 team starts overall. He's also come up a loser in 11 of his last 13 during the month of June, including eight straight at home. With the Cardinals 4-0 all-time in Miami against Nolasco, expect more of the same this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

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Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami at San AntonioFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Each game this series has seen the eventual winning team pull away for a strong second half, with the Spurs doing so in Games One and Three and Miami returning the favor in Games Two and Four. With this series now down to a best-of-three setting we look for both defenses to bring their A-game in a defensive battle. These teams have played against each other enough games in a row to memorize their offensive sets and get a feel of what they are going to do in specific game situations. The 53% shooting the Spurs allowed Miami to have in Thursday's win was the highest San Antonio has allowed in two months. Miami is 11-3 Under when playing with two days rest and this one stays well under the total.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles +102FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There is a lot of value on Baltimore today when the Red Sox send Jon Lester to the mound. In his last 3 starts Lester has posted a 7.41 ERA and a 2.059 WHIP with a 0-2 record. Lester will be facing one of the most dangerous offenses in the major leagues as Baltimore averages 4.9 runs per game.
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The Red Sox are batting a mere .254 over their past 7 games and they will have to face a stingy Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzales has a 3.71 ERA on the season and the Orioles are 7-4 in his 11 starts this season. Gonzalez has showed no signs of slowing down as he has posted a 3.15 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Orioles are 3-0 during that span.

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Art AronsonFOR  FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco vs. AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tim Lincecum (4-6, 4.70 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Lincecum gave up four runs over 4 2/3's frames of work in an 8-2 loss to the Pirates on Tuesday; he served up seven hits to go along with two walks. The beleaguered right-hander has now lost four of his last five and unfortunately a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered for the veteran as he's just 1-3 with a pretty pedestrian 5.40 ERA away from friendly confines so far this season. Lincecum will be opposed by Julio Teheran (4-3, 3.62 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off six hits over six frames in a 7-6 loss to the soft-hitting Friars on Monday. The 22-year old has started to exhibit some "cracks in the armor" lately (note that Teheran is just 3-3 with a sub-par 4.04 ERA in all "night games" this season). Both starters come in with significant issues making the "over" definitely worth a second look in this matchup.

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago at HoustonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When these teams meet there are often high scoring games with the over 9-4 in the last 13 meetings. This is a good offensive park and Chicago southpaw starter Hector Santiago walks too many batters, 26 in 52 innings, plus he has been getting worse walking 11 in in his last three starts (15.2 innings). He hasn't thrown a lot against Houston but does have a 13.50 ERA against them. The over is 7-1 in the Astros last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 9-2 over the total overall against a lefty. Houston is a good hitter's park so look for more runs than oddsmakers expect.

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Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves    
Play: Atlanta Braves

Atlanta has some solid Angles in their favor tonight. The Braves are 9-3 at home off a home win where they scored 5 or more runs and 4-1 this season at home when the posted total is 8 to 8.5. When they are a home favorite from -150 to 175 they have won 7 of 9 times. Times certainly have Changes for the Giants and Tim Lincecum. Just 2 years ago San Francisco and T-Lin would have been a 150+ favorite in a game like this. However Lincecum clearly not the Dominant force he once was as he has lost velocity on a fastball that was unhittable on certain nights. Now he appears to be a 3rd or 4th starter on a team chocked with pitching. Licecum has struggled particularly on the road again this season where his Era is an elevated 5.40. Tonight he will take on J. Teheran who appears to have his head on straight this season as he has won 4 of 5 at home and has a nice 2.97 home era. The Braves will follow him up with a bullpen that has a solid 2.01 era at home. Look for the Braves to take the Finale.

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GamePlan

Washington/Cleveland Under 7.5

Two pitchers going today in great pitching form. Strasburg and Kluber have been on the top of their games recently. Straburg has a 1.59 ERA over his last three starts and Kluber has a 2.81 ERA over his last three starts.

Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 5-0-1 in Nationals last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Indians last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Under is 5-0 in Indians last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under today.

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Jeffrey Brandes

Washington vs. Cleveland
Play: Under 7½

WASHINGTON NATIONALS: STEPHEN STRASBURG (R) ERA: 2.54 W/L: 3-5
CLEVELAND INDIANS: COREY KLUBER (R) ERA: 4.30 W/L: 3-4

For the Nationals, STEPHEN STRASBURG's last full start was a 6-1 win over the Phillies. He pitched eight innings and gave up one run striking out nine. In his last 3 starts he's 1-0 , has 18 K's, and an ERA of 1.59 in 17 innings.

COREY KLUBER's last start was excellent. He allowed just one run to the
Rangers over eight innings. He gave up six hits, walked three and struck out three. In his last 3 starts he's 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA.

Key Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games

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Dave Price

New York Mets -106

New York's Hefner is 1-6, but he's pitched well enough to have a much better record. He has a 3.91 ERA through 12 starts, including a 3.09 ERA through six home starts. He enters in great form with a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts. Chicago's Garza is carrying a 6.26 after five starts, and he has a 7.36 ERA over his last three starts after giving up nine earned runs in five innings his last time out. The Cubs are just 9-29 since the start of last season when facing an NL starter with an ERA of 3.50 to 4.20. The Cubs are also 17-44 in their last 61 road games versus a right-handed starter. Bet the Mets.

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Dave Cokin

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros

It's not exactly news that the Astros are bringing up the rear in the AL West. Picking Houston to finish in last place this season wasn't rocket science. They're mostly too young and generally just not talented enough to be anything other than a cellar dweller.

What's more newsworthy is the steep decline of the White Sox. This team was a playoff contender until a September collapse last season. But the 2013 Chisox have little in common with the previous edition. They're not just a team that's struggling. Fact is, this team pretty much stinks right now and I don't really see things getting significantly better.

Age, injuries to their pitchers, a barren farm system and what sure looks like a dead attitude add up to bad results. That's the White Sox right now. That last aspect, the team's apparent personality, is the most troubling. This squad has played what can only be described as mentally sloppy baseball all season. As they fall deeper into the AL Central depths, it's probably going to keep getting worse.

Personally, I think the White Sox need to be putting a fire sale in place. They won't get much for the old farts on the roster, who make big bucks and aren't even mildly desired commodities. But at this point, some of these guys would be addition by subtraction.

The Astros are actually in better shape than the White Sox. They don't have great skills, but I really like the energy on this team and they at least have displayed the will to win. That has shown in this series, with Houston playing the much crisper baseball and as a result, they're up 2-0 in this wraparound set that concludes on Monday.

I rate the Hector Santiago-Dallas Keuchel pitching matchup roughly even. Santiago has the better ERA, but Keuchel owns a slim edge in most of the metric comparisons. The offensive edge goes to the hosts. They're not that bad against lefties, whereas the White Sox haven't hit southpaws worth a lick.

The White Sox are marginally superior to Houston overall, but they're not today. I see some legitimate value in backing the Astros as a home dog in this hookup.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati RedsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Cincinnati RedsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Properly embarrassed on Saturday by a 6-0 score, expect the Reds to bounce back strongly in the rubber match of this weekend set against the Brewers. Milwaukee's problem to day figures to be starter Wily Peralta, whose recent efforts leave more than a little to be desired (6.74 ERA in last seven outings, six of those being losses for the Brewers). Cincy ace Johnny Cueto returns to active duty after a short stint on the DL, and his numbers from earlier this season were spectacular(2.17 ERA, 0.88 WHIP. .157 OBA).

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CRAIG DAVIS

My free play is on the St. Louis Cardinals on the run line.

Simply put, the Cardinals are the best team in baseball playing the league's worst. Sure, the Marlins did take the first game of this series and had previously won five of their last seven... but we're not stupid.

The writing is on the wall for the Fish, as they'll continue to struggle with no starting pitching, no bullpen, and very little offense at times.

As much as I'm indifferent about the Cardinals... you have to give them this much: they are hitting the baseball all over the diamond and getting solid starting pitching from everyone.

Yesterday Carlos Beltran hit two long balls (one from each side of the plate) in the Cards' 13-7 win in Miami. Granted, it's clearly not the type of pitching effort you want out of a guy like Lance Lynn, but the offense continually bails him out, game after game.

Florida sends out Ricky Nolasco to be slaughtered today by the Cardinals, who have been averaging over 6 runs per game during their latest winning streak.

Take St. Louis as your free play of the day.

2* ST. LOUIS -1.5

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BRAD WILTON

Another total winner tonight, as San Francisco and Atlanta fly Over the total in you Sunday night spotlight contest.

Yesterday's meeting between the teams ended up going to the Braves in dramatic fashion, 6-5 as the Over came through for the 7th time in the last 9 meetings between the teams.

The Giants have played Overs in 5 of their last 7 games, while the Braves have played Overs in 4 of their last 6 contests.

The pitching matchup also suggests that we will see a few runs, as Tim Lincecum sports a season ERA of 4.70, while Atlanta starter Julio Teheran's ERA is approaching 4.

Just see the runs adding up at Turner Field this Sunday night, as the Giants and Braves conclude their weekend set with an Over for the 8th time in their last 10 meetings.

4* SAN FRANCISCO-ATLANTA OVER

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SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner for tonight is going to be on the Angels of Anaheim getting it done at home against the New York Yankees, as the two continue to go in the opposite direction.

While the Angels have caught fire and are surging with a three-game win streak, the Yankees have now lost five in a row since losing a few in Oakland. The streaks continue in Anaheim today, as I don't see the Halos letting the stripes out of town with a win.

We have quite a pitching showdown this afternoon at Angel Stadium with Jered Weaver taking on C.C. Sabathia in a battle aces, and there isn't anyone better at home in a pressure-packed game than there is in Weaver.

The right-hander is 6-2 with a 4.97 ERA lifetime against the Yankees, and I like him much better than Sabathia, who had a rough start his last time out, getting hit pretty good by the Oakland Athletics.

New York's ace lefty has struggled tremendously this season and hasn't seemed to be his self this season. Now he takes on a team he's 6-8 against with a 4.22 ERA during his career.

I won't list either pitcher, cause I don't care enough about either one to hinge my bet on one or the other, I'd rather have the Angels based on momentum.

Take the Halos.

1* ANAHEIM

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JEFF BENTON

Your Sunday freebie is the surging Toronto Blue Jays over the sliding Texas Rangers.

Toronto made it 4 straight wins with yesterday's 6-1 drubbing of the struggling Rangers.

The Jays have now won 7 of their last 9 overall, while the Rangers have now lost 5 in a row and 8 of their last 10.

The pitching matchup favors the Rangers with Derek Holland squaring off against Chien-Ming Wang, but Holland is coming off allowing 9 hits and 4 runs in just over 4 innings his last time out, and with the way the Blue Jays have been swinging the sticks of late, have to back Toronto at this price.

Go with Toronto to extend the Rangers woes.

Blue Jays make it a 5 game winning streak.

2* TORONTO

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NY Yankees vs. LA AngelsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: LA AngelsFOR  FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Angels will look to complete the sweep in the series finale against New York on Sunday. The Halos have out-scored the Yankees 11-4 winning the first two games of this series in California. Game 3 might just turn into a pitcher's duel, with each team sending it's ace to the mound.
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Here are my keys to the game:FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1: Jered Weaver - He's coming off a loss on the road at Baltimore his last time out, but you might expect a better performance at home this afternoon. Weaver is perfect at Angel's Stadium this year, and he finished last season with an amazing record of 11-1 at home. Weaver is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in four starts against the Yankees since 2010.
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2: C.C. Sabathia - The big left-hander was roughed up by the A's in his last start, allowing six runs on eight hits, including a pair of home run over six innings. Sabathia (6-5, 4.07 ERA) has struggled outside of New York this season, with a record of 1-3 with a 5.54 ERA on the road.
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3: X-Factor - It hasn't been a great year for Albert Pujols, but the slugger has been swinging a hot bat against the Bronx Bombers. He's 8-for-14 in his last three games, and his teammate Howie Kendrick leads the American League hitting .500 in the month of June.

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Seattle vs. OaklandFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: SeattleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mariners may be one of the worst teams in the majors when it comes to scoring runs, but they have two of the best starting pitchers in the game. Oakland got a look at one of those yesterday with Felix Hernandez tossing seven scoreless innings in a 4-0 M's victory.
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The Mariners hand the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma tonight, and the 32 year old owns the second best ERA in the American League. Iwakuma (7-1, 1.79 ERA) allowed just a single run on four hits over seven innings in a 3-2 win over the Astros in his last start. He's allowed just one run (unearned) over his last three starts (22 innings).
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Iwakuma has already faced Oakland twice this year, going 2-0 and allowing just three runs in 13 innings of work. He's 10-1 with a 1.81 ERA in his last 17 starts dating back to last season.
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Bartolo Colon will get the nod for the A's, and he's been fantastic so far this season. Colon (8-2, 2.92 ERA) tossed six scoreless innings allowing just three hits in a win over the Yankees his last time out. He struggled a little with his command against New York, walking four and using 102 pitches over six frames.
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This matchup has all the signs of a pitcher's duel, and after being shutout yesterday, it doesn't get any easier for Oakland today.

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Seattle vs. OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After winning Friday's opener by a 3-2 score, the Mariners got a gem from King Felix yesterday, en route to a 4-0 victory. With a red hot Iwakuma on the mound, the M's may well get another strong pitching performance this afternoon.
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The M's haven't swept the A's here since April of 2009 though and runs figure to be hard for them to come by.
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That's because Colon is on the mound for the home team.
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While Iwakuma does have better overall numbers, Colon's home stats are actually slightly better than Iwakuma's numbers on the road. (Colon is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in six home starts, allowing just two home runs. Iwakuma is 4-1 with an identical 2.70 ERA but a slightly higher 1.071 WHIP, allowing eight home runs.)
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Over the last few weeks, Colon has gone a perfect 5-0 while allowing only three combined runs in 36 combined innings. (That's a 0.75 ERA!)
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While the A's have seen Iwakuma twice already this season, the M's haven't seen Colon since last season.
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The A's score more runs at home than the M's do on the road and their relievers have far superior stats. All things considered, with all due respect to Iwakuma, I believe the A's are offering solid value at this price. Consider Oakland

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 16

SC Live Dogs

Dodgers / Pirates Under 7

Why we like the Under of 7 in the Dodgers-Pirates Game on Sunday...first off, with the Pirates being a -125 favorite in this game in Cole's second big leage start, that should tell us right off of the bat that these books fully expect Cole to have a dominant outing against the Dodgers where he holds them to few runs. With that being said, Cole showed us that he is able to pitch in this ballpark where he held the Giants to just 2 runs through 6 innings on 2 Ks and 0 BBs in his big league debut on June 11th. Cole has proven in the minor leagues that he is a strikeout pitcher and with the Dodgers high K offense, we may just see that from Cole on Sunday. The Dodgers will be pitching Zack Greinke who comes into this game with a 2.79 era over his last 19 innings against above average offensive teams in the DBacks, Braves and Rockies. Greinke has posted a 6.91 era on the road this season but that number is inflated being that two of those three starts were IN Milwaukee and Colorado. Greinke's numbers should transfer well in PNC Park where there have been 22 Unders compared to just 13 Overs. Greinke faced this Pirates team once this season IN Los Angeles where he allowed 0 runs through 6 innings on just 2 hits, 0 BBs and 6 Ks. This Pirates offense has a combined 151 ABs off of Greinke where they have a .219 average with 5 HRs. From a bullpen perspective the Pirates come in with a 2.53 home era where they have allowed just 6 HRs through 128 innings while the Dodgers have a 4.69 road era where they have allowed just 11 HRs through 73 innings. With Greinke pitching into the late innings as of late, we wont put much stock into the Dodgers pen on Sunday as most of their disappointment has come from the middle relief. A few trends to keep in mind for Sundays game is the Dodgers are 11-14 O/U in road games, while the Pirates are 13-22 O/U in home games. Also, the Pirates are 3-10 O/U in home games with a total of 7 or less.

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