Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 9

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 9

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Miami vs. NY MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: NY MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mets offensive ineptitude was their downfall in yesterday's marathon, as they only managed to score one run over 20 innings. The good news for New York is, the Marlins don't have the best pitching staff at the best of times, and they won't have a lot of fresh arms to turn to today at Citi Field.
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Tom Koehler will get the nod for Miami, and he's yet to earn a victory this season. He's been decent at home, however in three starts on the road he's 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA. His worst outing of the season came in his last start, allowing five runs on seven hits, including a pair of home runs in just five innings, losing 7-2 to the Phillies.
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The Mets hand the ball to Jonathon Niese, and he's coming off his best outing of the season. Niese (3-5, 4.40 ERA) went eight strong innings allowing just a single run in a 2-1 win over the Yankees his last time out. He's put together three consecutive quality starts against the Yankees, Reds and Cardinals, allowing just three earned runs in those games.
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As bad as the Mets are, they are still better than the Marlins. With a favorable pitching matchup, New York should put an end to their slump against Miami this afternoon.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 9

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays -137FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rays are rolling. They've won 10 of their last 13, including 5 straight at home. They've also won their last 5 against the Orioles. Baltimore's Chris Tillman has had success on the road this season. However, Tampa Bay's Matt Moore has been even sharper at home in comparison. Going back to last season, the Rays have won 12 of Moore's last 14 starts. They are 5-1 in his last 6 home starts, 9-1 in his last 10 starts as a favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. He's also enjoyed success against the Orioles, winning both starts against them this season and four of his last five. He has a 1.89 ERA in six career starts versus Baltimore. Tillman, on the other hand, has lost his last three starts against the Rays and has a 4.99 ERA against them in nine starts. Take Tampa Bay.

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Miami at New York MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Miami +1.5 -135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mets have been awful, but are favored here despite a losing record both home and away. This New York offense is terrible, 26th in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage and slugging while batting .227 as a team (29th). They've lost five of six games, including yesterday to these Marlins, 2-1 in 20 innings! That will burn out your bullpen.  And the offense left 22 men on base. The Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 home games, and 7-19 against a right-handed starter. New York goes with Jonathon Niese, and the team is 2-6 his last eight starts, as well as 2-5 with a 4.31 ERA against the Marlins. Tom Koehler of the Mets has only walked 13 in 41+ innings and has allowed fewer hits (35) than innings pitched. The Marlins are 5-2 in their last seven after allowing two runs or less in their previous game, and 4-0 in the last four meetings with New York, so the value is the Marlins on the run-line.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 9

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston vs. Kansas CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Kansas CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I won with the Royals yesterday and might as well follow up with them here as they go for a three-game sweep of the Astros.....
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Since George Brett tool over as hitting coach for KC, the results have been positive. The team has scored at least four runs in each game during the current four-game win streak. They won 7-2 last night with five different players producing a RBI.  When the team scores four or more runs this season, they have a 20-5 record. The Royals are playing well right now on a season-high four-game win streak, outscoring opponents 22-8. Starter Luis Mendoza has allowed just five earned runs his last three starts.
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Astros manager Bo Porter called yesterday's loss "the worst game" his team had played all year. That's saying something considering Houston's 22-41 record. Things have not gone well recently with only five runs scored in the last three games. They have lost four of five, scoring two runs or less in every defeat.  This is not a team that is good at avoiding the sweep as evidenced by a 28-71 mark when taking the field with double revenge.  They are 33-97 as a road underdog of +150 or more.  They are 32-81 in day games. Starter Lucas Harrell had a 7.53 ERA his previous six starts before allowing just one earned run in a 4-1 loss last time out.

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Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta vs. LA DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Braves lost 5-0 to the Dodgers on Thursday (it was 1-0 before Puig’s grand slam in the 8th), and 2-1 (in 10 innings) on Friday, before eking out a 2-1 win last night. Atlanta owns a 7 1/2-game lead in the NL East and that’s due in large part to a pitching staff which leads MLB with a 3.17 ERA. The starters own a 3.38 mark which ranks third. Kris Medlen pitched 6.2 scoreless innings in last night’s 2-1 victory and that makes Atlanta  6-2 in June, with the the staring rotation posting an 0.98 ERA in those games. Mike Minor looks to continue the trend, as he faces the Dodgers this afternoon in the finale of this four-game series. Minor is having an excellent season. He’s 7-2 with a 2.52 ERA in 11 starts (Braves are 8-3). He’s allowed just 57 hits in 78.2 innings with a 72-14 KW ratio. He hasn't lost in his past seven starts and has not allowed more than two ERs in any of his last six, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA during that stretch (team is 5-1).
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Matt Magill takes the mound for the Dodgers, with Ted Lilly getting scratched due to chronic neck pain. The 23-year-old Magill was sent to the minors after allowing seven runs (six earned) on five hits and nine walks in six innings of a loss at Colorado last Sunday. However, he has been recalled from Triple-A for this one. He’s made five starts this year and is winless (0-1 with a 6.38 ERA) and most-troubling is, the Dodgers are 0-5 in those starts. No reason to think he’ll win here, vs Minor and the Braves.

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Jeff Alexander

Pittsburgh Pirates -126

The Cubs can't be trusted with Edwin Jackson getting the ball. The right-hander is a miserable 1-8 with an ERA of 6.29 on the season, including 0-5 at home with an ERA of 7.83. Pittsburgh's Jeff Locke has been considerably better, as evidenced by his 5-1 record and 2.45 ERA. The Pirates have won their last five against Chicago and are in good position to extend this streak Sunday afternoon.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 9

John Ryan

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals    
Play: Houston Astros

The simulator shows a high probability that Houston will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-49 mark for just 51% winners, BUT has made a whopping 42 units/unit wagered since 2007. This amazing system has averaged a Plus 187 dog play. This system reflects the foundation of my MLB and NHL methods that DOGS must be the staple of any sound money making program in these money line sports. Sure there will be favorites from time to time, but for VERY strong reasons. For example, if you just played my 10* FREE pick plays, you would have posted a 13-10 mark and made 5.39 units/unit wagered benefiting from some significant dogs – just like this opportunity present to you today. Of supporting note is the fact that KC is an imperfect 0-7 (-8.3 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Take Houston.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 9

Joseph D'Amico

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds    
Play: St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis and Cincinnati have split the first two games of this series, but the Cardinals haven't lost a series since the end of April. Despite the Reds victory yesterday, they aren't scoring. Over their L30 contests, Cincy has posted 5 or more runs just 11 times. Outside of Joey Votto, the offense doesn't have a single .300 hitter and possesses six every day batters that have combined for 319 K's. Overall, the team has only 18 SBs. So when they do get on, they don't advance. Bronson Arroyo takes the bump. The RH is 6-5 on the season, including an 0-2 mark vs. St. Louis. In his career, Arroyo is 8-15 when starting against the Cards. St. Louis has the best record in Base Ball at 40-22, including the League's best away record at 21-10 on the road. They averaged nearly 8 RPG in June before yesterday's loss. While their lineup has four sluggers with hitting streaks of nine or more games. They rank 3rd in scoring at 4.94 RPG and 2nd in Team BA at .275. Lance Lynn gets the start. The RH is 8-1 with a 2.76 ERA, limiting opponents to two runs or less in 7 of his L9 starts. This season, Lynn is 2-0 vs. Cincy. The Cardinals are 10-3 their L13 games vs. the NL Central, 20-7 their L27 games played on the road, and 20-7 in Lynn's L27 overall starts. The Reds are 1-5 their L6 games played vs. RH starters, 0-4 their L4 in Game 3 of a series, and 3-7 in Arroyo's L10 starts as a home 'dog. Take St. Louis.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 9

Tony George

San Antonio +6

Can you not imagine Miami winning this game before headed to Texas for the next 2 games?  They are like 10-0 ATS after a SU loss....blah blah blah. While I think the Heat will win, this is too many points.  6 points is a TON of points in NBA ANYTIME...especially in the Finals, and again I remind you the Spurs are not here by accident and they are a freaking good team. Miami played well on paper and the stats were fairly even, but San Antonio's experience and talent came through in the 4th quarter, hard to deny even with Parkers miracle slop shot that the Spurs will lay down here and we all know Coach Pop is the best coach in the NBA.  It can be debated all day long but the Spurs are disciplined and experienced and will take this one to the wire.  Miami by 2 or 3 points.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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L.A. Angels +153 over BOSTONFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Joe Blanton has some very ugly surface stats which include a 1-9 record, a 5.53 ERA and a bloated 1.62 WHIP. Those numbers are grossly deceiving, which in turn creates a pretty sweet overlay. Blanton is the reason you buy skills and not stats. Over his last five starts, covering 30 innings, Blanton has walked 2 and struck out 30. He also has an outstanding 60% groundball rate over that span and a very low 16% line-drive rate. Joe Blanton has been frustrating his managers for years, as he's posted stellar skills in the past with not much to show for his efforts. Pitching for his third squad in since 2011, it appears MLB teams are growing tired of playing the waiting game but really, all Blanton needs is a shift of luck to excel because he has all the tools. He remains a risky investment because of his shaky past but if there was ever a time to take a leap of faith on him, it's now.
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Ryan Dempster’s terrific start has been supercharged by fortunate hit and strand percentages. While Dempster's fastball velocity has dipped to 89 mph, his third straight year of fastball decline, he is using his splitter more to generate swings-and-misses and it’s working with 77 K’s in 70 innings so far. Dempster is still a consistent, low-upside workhorse, though age, injury and recent ERA/WHIP swings are becoming red flags. It’s also worth noting that current Angels hitters have 37 hits in 111 career AB’s against Dempster for a BA of .333 and 10 of those 37 hits left the yard. Overlay.
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COLORADO -1½ +118 over San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Padres have really been battling hard this entire season and should remain one of the more profitable dogs the rest of the way. However, there is no defense or answer for Clayton Richard, one of the five worst starting pitchers in the majors. In 29 innings, Richard has 20/20 vision, meaning in 39 innings of work this season he has walked 20 and struck out 20. Prior to this year, Richard thrived at PETCO Park with a career 2.82 ERA at home in 45 starts but he was a product of that park. Since they moved the fences at Petco, he’s been exposed as the fraud that he is. He has a 1.81 WHIP in eight games started and that’s really all you need to know about this stiff. Clayton Richard can’t get out of trouble on his own and there will be plenty of trouble at Coors against the Rockies.
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Juan Nicasio is coming on. He’s pitched in Cincinnati, San Francisco and at home twice in his last four games and not one pitch left the yard. Nicasio does an outstanding job of inducing grounders with a rate of 55% on the year.  Nicasio has battled significant injuries the past two seasons and that shelf time has prevented him from making use of his 94 mph fastball. Nicasio also throws an above average change and slider that he’s beginning to trust and use more each outing. The total in this game is 11 and one has to figure that if it comes close to that number or goes over the majority of the runs will be charged to Clayton Richard.
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Houston +153 over KANSAS CITYFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With a 4.97 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, Lucas Harrell won't get attention even from some savvy bettors. He's 28, and his skills with Houston have been far from attractive. That said, Harrell owns elite skills with the bases empty that include a 56% groundball rate. Harrell has given up five-plus runs four times already this season, but all four of those outings came against either the A's or Tigers. He’s had plenty of solid starts that include one run allowed in five or more innings against the Yankees, Angels twice, Texas, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. That’s seven games out of 13 that starts that Harrell has allowed one earned run. There's some serious profit potential here if he can piece together these skill flashes and if the Astros can give him some support. That could all come to pass here against Luis Mendoza.
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Mendoza is pure fade material and in no way does he deserve to be this high a price with his lack of skills and pitching for the Royals. In nine games started covering 51 frames, Mendoza has one win, 34 K’s and 23 walks issued. He comes in with a 1.55 WHIP and at The K, Mendoza is 0-2 with a 8.05 ERA. Mendoza is exactly the type of pitcher you don’t want to lay significant juice with because his pure quality starts are few and far between. Most balls are hit hard off him and he’s at the mercy of his defense and good fortune to have a good game. The price here makes these feisty Astros worth a bet

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 9

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio/MIAMI Under 187½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Game 2 of the NBA Finals promises to be more of the same defensive battle that we saw out of these two teams in Game 1. Although these are two of the better offensive teams in the league, they both play swarming defense which denies their opponent from getting into their comfort zone on a repeated basis. The Heat and Spurs both recover excellently on open shooters and will make life tough on the opponent from a defensive standpoint. The Spurs have held opponents to a ghastly 42% shooting from the field in the playoffs, while the Heat are right there with them only letting opponents shoot 43%. The Heat recognizes that a big part of the Spurs deadly attack revolves on San Antonio shooting 3-point shots. Miami did quite a good job in Game 1 in limiting the damage from beyond the arc. Kawhi Leonard missed all four of his attempts on corner 3’s. The Heat focused in on Matt Bonner in his seven minutes of court-time and did not allow him to break free for any wide open 3’s at the top of the arc. Danny Green was really the only Spur that was hot from downtown, as he went on a 4 of 9 shooting spree from 3. In all though, San Antonio only connected on 7 of 23 three’s. This 30% clip is far lower than their playoff average of 36%.
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Meanwhile, the Spurs defensive attack just threw the Heat offense completely out of whack for the entire game. LeBron, who received praise for putting up another Finals triple-double, shot only 7 of 16 from the field, but even more concerning was that nearly a third of his attempts were from beyond the arc. The Spurs did a great job turning LeBron into a jump shooter, and preventing him from attacking and bulldozing his way to the rim. Much of the credit certainly must go to Kawhi Leonard who embraced the challenge of defending LeBron, and Kawhi did as wonderful a job as could be expected in limiting LeBron’s offensive production. Meanwhile, Chris Bosh once again spent much of his time hanging out by the perimeter, and he finished 0-4 from 3, while only pulling in 5 rebounds. That is truly unacceptable as he is Miami’s only legitimate big-man threat, but this sadly is the sort of trend that has been going on all playoffs with Bosh. Dwyane Wade’s lack of offensive explosion and scoring prowess has been well documented so don’t expect him to have a massive bounce-back in Game 2. D-Wade has gone off for 20 points just twice in these playoffs, as the once tenacious D-Wade that we all came to know, now sadly only exists in our memories and on NBA Classic games. Once again, as in so many Finals in the past, defense will rule the day.

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