Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 4

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 4

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner for tonight is on the Houston Astros against the Baltimore Orioles, as I'm going to take a shot here with the surprising 'Stros, who are in after sweeping a four-game set in Anaheim, and have won six straight.

I've said this before, and I'll always stand by this when it comes to playing baseball in Houston in the summer - there is no harder climate to get used to than the humidity in Houston.

I spent a week there one summer, about 13 years ago, and I never knew if I was dry when I got out of the shower. I can't tell you how brutal it is in the Houston area, as the humidity makes it so much worse with the heat.

The Orioles arrive after playing five straight in Baltimore, where the weather is around 75 degrees with 35 percent humidity. In Houston, the weather will peak in the 90s with 75 percent humidity. At game time, it'll be about 90 degrees with 50 percent humidity, and the Orioles will feel it, mark my words.

This price is way off, as there are some intangibles you simply cannot account for, like humidity in Houston.

3♦ HOUSTON

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 4

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego at Los Angeles DodgersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The San Diego Padres have done most of their heavy lifting at home where they are an above .500 team. It has been a different story on the road where the Padres are just 10-17 on the season. Yasiel Puig's entry into the bigs was huge as he had 2 hits and recorded an outfield assist. Hanley Ramirez should also be back in the lineup tonight, so the Dodgers' attack is getting upgraded. The better news is the fact that Gonzalez, and Ramirez are a combined 17-20 against Padres' starter Richard. The Dodgers also have Ted Lilly on the mound and his career ERA vs. the Padres is 2.51 with a WHIP of 1.05. Richard has led the Padres to a woeful 2-15 mark in his last 17 starts on the road to a total of 7-8.5. Go with the Dodgers.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland @ NY YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: 1st 5 Innings OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Tribe takes on the Yankees in the Bronx on Tuesday, both teams will turn to the bottom half of their rotation, sending a pair of struggling pitchers to the mound.
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The Yankees will hand the ball to David Phelps, after he failed to get out of the first inning in his last start. Phelps (3-3, 4.65 ERA) allowed five runs on four hits while walking a pair in the first inning of a 9-4 loss to the Mets his last time out. Prior to that he surrendered four runs on six hits in a 9-4 win over the Rays.
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Phelps has complained about an injury to his forearm, and he may not be 100% healthy (he certainly didn't look it in his last start).
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The Indians send Scott Kazmir to the mound, coming off a fantastic performance in a win over Cincy at home. Kazmir (3-2, 5.13 ERA) has struggled away from home though, posting a record of 0-2, with a 6.87 ERA in four starts on the road this year. He gave up six runs on eight hits, including three home runs over just four innings, losing his last start at Yankee Stadium.
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Lyle Overbay is hitting .385 lifetime versus Kazmir, while Vernon Wells and Robbie Cano have both taken him deep three times in their careers.
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Needless to say, this hardly looks like it's shaping up to be a pitcher's duel. I expect to see plenty of runners cross the plate in the Bronx on Tuesday.

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Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals -173FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nationals have the advantage on the mound with Jordan Zimmerman, who's 8-3 with a 2.37 ERA in 11 starts. He's been nearly unhittable at home where he's 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA. New York's Jeremy Hefner, on the other hand, is 1-5 with a 4.50 ERA in 10 starts. The Mets have lost 9 of these starts. His ERA is 5.67 in 5 road starts. Hefner is also 0-3 (0-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.57 in 4 starts against Washington. Zimmerman, meanwhile, is 3-3 (8-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.05 in 12 starts against New York. The Nats have won 5 of his last 6 starts versus the Mets. Take Washington.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR  FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota +120 over KANSAS CITYFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The last time the Royals won a game at home was on May 5, a stretch of 11 games, Since that last win at Kaufman Stadium, K.C. has dropped 21 of 27 games overall and have even fallen behind the White Sox into last place in the Central. The Royals are not THIS bad and because of this terrible funk they are going to offer up some tremendous value down the road but for now, with Luis Mendoza starting and being favored, the Royals have little appeal. Over his career, covering 77 games and 49 starts, Mendoza has an ERA of 5.23 and a BAA of .291. In three starts at home this year covering just 14.1 frames, Mendoza has been tagged for 21 hits, 14 earned runs (8.59 ERA) three jacks, he’s walked eight and struck out seven and has a BAA of .350. Mendoza’s strikeout rate and control is mediocre and while his groundball rate offers a building block, it didn't help him all that much in '08 when he posted a similar rate. In summarizing Mendoza, it’s hard to see a path out of mediocrity.
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Then there’s Sam Deduno. Deduno is has the liveliest arm on this Twins staff. Deduno once was a solid prospect with the Rockies before suffering from a variety of elbow and shoulder injuries. He also missed time last season with shoulder tendinitis. Deduno has good, quality stuff when healthy. He owns a lively 88-93 mph fastball that hitters rarely elevate and he can knock them out with a solid curveball that he gets hitters to chase. His ability to keep the ball in the yard (40 HR in 849.2 career innings) may be his best attribute. As an extreme groundball pitcher with an encouraging strikeout rate, there is always a good chance of him throwing a gem. Deduno’s groundball rate this year is off the charts at 67%. He’s coming off a seven-inning, four hit beauty against the Brewers. His biggest problem is a lack of control, however, as long as he doesn’t walk consecutive batters over and over, he has the ability to induce the next hitter to hit into a double-play. That wildness sometimes works to his advantage because batters never seem quite comfortable standing in there because of his wildness. Deduno is extremely talented but also risky because of that lack of control. As the chalk, Deduno is too risky but taking back a tag in this spot against the ice-cold Royals and Luis Mendoza, he and the Twinkies offer up true value. 
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Chicago Cubs +172 over L.A. ANGELSFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Angels are having a bad year but being swept at home in a four-game series by the Astros takes it to an entirely different level. Perhaps we missed the opportunity to fade the Angels in those last four games but it’s difficult to pull the trigger on a team (Houston) that had the fewest wins in baseball before that sweep. It’s not difficult to pull the trigger on these undervalued Cubbies. Prior to losing its last two at home to Arizona, Chicago had reeled off five in a row. Over their past seven games, the Cubbies have scored 44 times while the Angels have scored 15 times over that same span. It may surprise you to learn that the Cubs lead the NL in doubles and are third in the NL in HR’s. That could bode well here against Jered Weaver. Weaver is one of the most overrated pitchers in the game because of his incredible 38-13 record over the past two years, including last year’s 20-5 mark. Somehow, some way, Weaver has done his best to hold off a swift erosion but he might not be able to avoid it now. His average fastball velocity during the last three seasons: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8 mph. His fastball averaged a soft-tosser-like 87.5 mph in the 2H of 2012. His swinging strike rate during the last three years is also ominous: 11.2%, 9.1% and 8.5%. Weaver has been able to rely on an effective pitch mix and deceptive arm angles to keep hitters from making hard contact but his margin for error is razor thin now. With a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 38%/25%/38%, Weaver has the pitching profile of guys that win five or six games a year. There's significant ERA correction coming here and we’ll be there to cash in when it inevitably happens.   
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It was a slow beginning to the season for Scott Feldman, who didn't last five innings in either of his first two starts as a Cub. But he has excelled since then with six wins and eight pure quality starts in his last nine appearances. In fact, Feldman has allowed two earned runs or less in all eight of those games and comes into this one with a 2.82 ERA. Under the surface, Feldman has the stats to support his strong run. He has a 51% groundball rate and a low 16% line-drive rate. His strikeout rate is good with 51 K’s in 61 innings and while his walks are up a bit with 19 so far, that is an acceptable level. Feldman will not be able to sustain his current 2.82 ERA, as his xERA is 3.75. However, that’s a discussion for another time when Feldman is favored or overpriced. As a huge dog against a team that is seeing BB’s and that is on the verge of firing its manager, Feldman and the Cubbies are a more appealing choice than laying -175 or thereabouts with the grossly overvalued combo of the Angels and Weaver.
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CINCINNATI -1½ +129 over ColoradoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Not sure what happens to these Rockies once they hit the road but it’s not pretty. Colorado has dropped eight of its last 12 road games. Two of those four wins came at Houston and at Wrigley against the Cubs. Playing at this hitter’s park last night and facing Bronson Arroyo, the Rockies made Arroyo look like Sandy Koufax. Arroyo needed just 86 pitches to get through eight full innings against the Rockies in a 3-0 win. Things get a little tougher against Homer Bailey. Bailey had a 4.75 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in May, but don't be fooled into thinking that he's on the verge of regression. His skills were great: 33 K’s in 31 innings, nine walks and a 47% groundball rate. Bailey’s average fastball velocity was a top-tier 93.6 mph but an unlucky 35% hit rate and a low 61% strand kept these skills hidden, making Bailey a prime buy-low target.
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Juan Nicasio has battled significant injuries (back, knee) the past two seasons. That shelf time prevented him from making use of his 94 mph fastball, a pitch that had given him a decent strikeout rate in the past. However, his fastball has dipped to 92.4 MPH this season and his 7.3% swinging strike rate is full proof of the velocity loss. Nicasio’s 4.94 road ERA is right in line with his xERA of 4.71. The biggest concern when backing this guy is that he’s a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/slider) and those types rarely maintain success at this level because these hitters know exactly what is on the way. When he’s behind in the count, Nicasio throws fastballs and when he’s ahead, you guessed it, he throws sliders. It’s not rocket science and at this park, Nicasio’s chances for success are slim at best.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 4

Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The defending World Champs have been a home/road dichotomy team all year: 20-10 at AT&T Park, but just 10-17 on the highway.  You can see that dichotomy very clearly when you watch them – they take better at bats and seem to have an extra spring in their step when buoyed by the home fans.
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The Giants have lost seven of their last eleven overall, and this is not the type of team prone to extended skids.  And even in the midst of this rough patch, the Giants have pounded out 24 runs in their last four home games, while winning three of those four contests.
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That’s bad news for Toronto’s Josh Johnson in his first start back off the DL.  Johnson wasn’t good before he was diagnosed with an injury to the triceps of his throwing arm, allowing 37 baserunners and 16 runs in just 19.2 innings of work over four starts.  He wasn’t good in his Triple A rehab assignment either, allowing six runs in just 4.2 innings of work, after suffering several ‘setbacks’ during his six week stint on the 15 day DL.  Expect his first start back with the Blue Jays to be, in the immortal words of Thomas Hobbes, “nasty, brutish and short.”
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Tim Lincecum isn’t attracting much betting market support these days; hence the very reasonable price range to back San Francisco at home this evening.  Lincecum’s advanced metrics (3.50 xFIP, .320 BABIP and a career low 65% strand rate) show clearly that his 5.12 ERA is primed to improve in the weeks ahead.  And if this game turns into a battle of bullpens, it’s something of a mismatch in favor of the Giants, warranting a much higher pricetag to support San Fran than the one we’re seeing for the full game.

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Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds -166FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds have won 21 of 27 at home and 6 straight against the Rockies. The Rockies have dropped 7 of 10, are 12-30 in their last 42 games as a road underdog and are 4-10 in Nicasio's last 14 road starts. The Reds are 5-0 in Bailey's last 5 home starts. Bet Cincy.

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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Pirates +152FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are certainly worth a shot Tuesday at this price. They should not be this heavy of an underdog to the Atlanta Braves with the underrated Jeff Locke on the mound.
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Locke continues getting disrespected despite being 5-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 11 starts this season. The left-hander is 3-1 with a 1.45 ERA on the road, and 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last three starts.
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Mike Minor is having a solid season for Atlanta as well, but even his numbers aren't as good as Locke's. Plus, Minor hasn't had much success against Pittsburgh in the past, going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in two career starts versus the Pirates.
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Pittsburgh is 7-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better this season. The Pirates are 14-3 in their last 17 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 6-1 in its last 7 games following a loss. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.

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Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland -115FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland is hot playing its best ball of the season with 15 wins in its last 17 games. The Brewers are just the opposite losing 24 of their last 31. They are 3-13 during their past 16 games at Miller Park and 4-17 versus opponents with a winning record.
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The A's have turned around their earlier road problems capturing eight of their last 11 away matchups. Oakland is a much better hitting club away from its spacious Coliseum.
The pitching matchup is A.J. Griffin versus Kyle Lohse. Oakland is 6-1 in Griffin's last seven starts. The A's are 20-7 in Griffin's past 27 starts. The Brewers' offense looks much better on paper than it does on the field with lack of production at second base and at the corner spots when Aramis Ramirez isn't in the lineup, which has been frequently due to his knee problems.
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Lohse returned to the rotation against the Twins this past Thursday after missing a start with pain in his elbow and allowed a season-high six runs and a career-high four home runs. Lohse said the problem wasn't pain, but location.
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The truth is Lohse isn't nearly as good outside of when he pitched for the Cardinals. Either he still is not right physically or his control is off. Lohse has a career ERA of 5.54 versus Oakland and Milwaukee has dropped each of his last six starts.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 4

Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orioles / Astros Over 9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I doubt the roof will be open, but I really don't care and fully think that's why this total is coming down. Tillman is not a ground ball pitcher and I expect, even in game one of a homestand, for the Astros to get four runs. Harrell has some interesting numbers, and he IS (can be) a ground ball pitcher, so perhaps he does keep the Orioles at bay early. If he does, there is the Astros bullpen, and in a park where anything from the power alleys to the foul pole has a reasonable chance of going out, I have this as at worst a 4-4 game at some point, making it a push at worst.

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Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Minnesota Twins +120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Each of these starters, Deduno and Mendoza, are in the midst of mediocre seasons but each comes off decent starts. The real advantage is current team form between these two which will show you that in no way do these Royals deserve the role of home chalk. As a base line, consider that Minnesota has 2 more wins for the season and 2 more road wins than Kansas City does at home. We have been fading the Royals with regularity with great success. Their slides have now regressed to 6-21 including 3-14 recently in which they have averaged just 2.6 RPG with a .221 BA with RISP. The Twins enter on a 7-2 run in which they have clouted 15 home runs. Love the value with Minnesota as underdog.

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NellyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Twins + over Kansas City RoyalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Twins are quietly on a roll, wiping out most of the damage from a 10-game losing streak in mid-May with wins in six of the last seven games. Minnesota has scored 39 runs in the last seven games and the Twins are still bolstered by one of the best bullpens in baseball, featuring a 2.87 ERA. Starting pitching has been the issue for Minnesota but Samuel Deduno provides great promise. He was erratic in 15 starts last season but had several high end outings and after a shaky debut in 2013 with a tough draw pitching at Detroit, Deduno delivered a gem in his last start. That game featured seven innings with just one run allowed and only four hits allowed. The Royals have slumped to the bottom of the AL Central with a 3-14 record in the last 17 games. Kansas City has scored more than four runs just twice in that stretch and the Royals have incredibly lost 10 consecutive home games. Luis Mendoza has pitched reasonably well in his return to the rotation but he rarely goes deep into the game and walks have been an issue. At home Mendoza owns an 8.59 ERA with a 1.98 WHIP. On the season Kansas City is scoring just 3.5 runs per game against right-handed pitching and Minnesota has the momentum in this matchup.

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Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

San Francisco/ Toronto Over 7.5: Both pitching staffs come into this game struggling and the starters for tonight are a big reason for that. Tim Lincecum has struggled all year with a 5.12 ERA overall and a 4.74 ERA at home. In his last 6 starts has a 6.38 ERA, allowing 4 ER's once, 5 ER's 3 times and 6 ER's once in those 6 starts. His home starts have averaged 8.5 rpg, while his night starts have put up 9.22 rpg. Tim will be taking on a solid Jays offense that has averaged 5.1 rpg in their last 10 games and they score 3.93 rpg on the road. Josh Johnson has faced the Giants 6 times in his career and has allowed 3 ER's exact in 5 of those 6 starts, but that was all when he was pitching well. He has not this year, with a 6.86 ERA overall. On the road he has had 1 start and that was at Detroit, where he allowed 6 ER's in just 1.1 innings of work. 3 of his 4 starts this year have put up double digit runs and the 4th start put up 7 runs. The Giants had a tough showing offensively on the road in their 3 game series vs a tough St Louis staf, but now they are back home where they average 4.6 rpg and have scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 4 games here. Both of these offenses should also be aided by the wind blowing out to dead center at 12 mph. Two good offenses vs bad pitching should lead to at least 10 runs in his one. KEY TRENDS-- The Over is 29-9-2 in San Fran's last 40 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 & 40-16-3 in their last 62 games overall as a favorite of -110 to -150.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Washington/ NY Mets Under 7.5: Pretty scary taking an Under with Jeremy Hefner on the mound, because he is just a horrible pitcher, but he hasn't pitched all that bad in his career vs the Nats, allowing 3 ER's or less in 3 of his 4 starts vs them and he waill also be taking on a struggling Washington offense in this one. The Nats come in having scored just 2.6 rpg in their last 5 games and they average just 3.46 rpg overall. They do average 3.8 rpg at home and 4.00 rpg in Zimmerman's home starts, but with the way he pitches at home that has been more than good enough. Zimmerman had a bad outing in his last start, in which he allowed 7 ER's to Baltimore, but in his other 10 starts this year he has allowed more than 2 ER's just once and that was the 3 ER's he allowed to Miami in his second start of the year. Jordan has a 1.50 ERA at home and his home starts have averaged just 5.2 rpg, plus . He will be taking on a struggling Met offense that has averaged just 3.3 rpg in their last 10 games and we note that Jordan has allowed more than 2 ER's to the Mets just once in his last 10 starts vs them. Overall he has a 3.05 ERA in 12 starts vs the Mets. The Washington offense won't have to do much here and usually hitter know that and kinda relax at the plate. No more than 4 runs from the Nats here and no more than 2 runs from the Mets.


LA DODGERS -135 over San Diego: The Padres are 10-26 in Clayton Richard's last 36 night starts and they are 2-15 in his last 17 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 on the game. This year Clayton has really struggled, going 0-5 in his last 7 starts with an 8.35 ERA over that stretch. On the road this year he has gone 0-3 with a 9.56 ERA and the Padres have been outscored by a ridiculous 5 rpg in his road starts. Let's go even further and note that the last 3 years he has made 37 starts at night and he is 9-22 with a 4.95 ERA in those starts. He should give a struggling LA offense an excellent chance of waking up tonight. The Dodgers will throw out Ted Lilly and while he is 0-2 with a 4.26 ERA on the year he does have very good numbers vs the Padres in his career. Ted has made 17 starts vs the Padres in his career and is 11-4 with a 2.22 ERA in those starts. This is an excellent spot for him to get his first win of the year, especially vs a Padres offense that has averaged just 2.8 rpg in their last 5 games. LA Should get a nice win tonight.   

2 UNIT PLAY

Texas +126 over BOSTON: Texas has owned the Sox of late, winning 21 of the last 29 meetings and they outscored them 16-4 in an earlier sweep this year. Boston is 9-22 in their last 31 vs the AL West, while Texas is 12-2 after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game. Ryan Dempster has struggled big time for Boston this year, going 2-6 with a 4.45 ERA, while in his last 4 starts he is 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA. At home he checks in with a 1-5 mark and a 4.21 ERA, with the Sox being outscored by 3 rpg in his home starts. Ouch. Justin Grimm comes in with a 5-3 mark and a 3.93 ERA on the year. Really he has had just 2 bad starts and they were on the road vs Milwaukee and Oakland, but his other 7 starts have all been quality starts, allowing 3 ER's or in each of those starts. On the road his is 2-2 with a 4.94 ERA, but he is pitching very well overall right now, with a 3-0 mark and a 3.30 ERA in his last 3 starts. Boston may be a bit flat in game one after dealing with the hated Yanks over the weekend and if we couple that with the pitching advantage that Texas has, plus the fact that Texas has owned this team, then we should pick up a nice dog win here.

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Andrew Lange   

Tampa Bay at Detroit
Play: Detroit

Over his next few starts, I'm think we'll start to see Tampa’s Matt Moore come back down to earth. Moore is currently 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA but nearly all of peripheral numbers suggest he's been fortunate. His BABIP (.201) is the lowest of any qualified starter, as is his left-on-base percentage (91.1). His xFIP (4.38) ranks 79th overall, right behind Kevin Slowey and Phil Hughes. And to top it all off, his velocity has been down a few ticks from where he was at last season. No question Moore has the makeup of being a long term, above average American League starter, but his low-2 ERA days are numbered. Meanwhile there is nothing fluky about Detroit's Anibal Sanchez. He's posted 89 strikeouts in 71 innings and two starts that produced a whopping 26 swinging strikes. Overall, Sanchez has actually outpitched his 2.79 ERA with a 2.42 xFIP. A few years ago, this line would have been close to a pick 'em but the market is obviously privy to all the FanGraph-esque stats. Still, I see a situation with the better starting pitcher and offense at home at less than -140. Tigers worth a bet.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 4

MLB Predictions

Toronto Blue Jays +120

The Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants both avoided a sweep on Sunday with a victory, and both enjoyed days off yesterday. The Blue Jays beat San Diego on Sunday 7-4 and are now 24-33 on the season and 10-17 on the road. The Giants beat St Louis 4-2 and are 30-27 on the season and 20-10 at home. These two teams had a two game set in Toronto in May with the Blue Jays winning both games by scores of 10-6 and 11-3. Tonight’s starter for Toronto is Josh Johnson who is coming off a DL stint. Johnson is 0-1 with a 6.86 ERA this year, .329 OBA and 1.88 WHIP over just 4 starts. Johnson had posted sub 4.00 ERA’s in his last 5 seasons and it is only a matter of time before he starts to pitch well. He has been working on a new change up and that should help him. Tim Lincecum is on the mound for San Francisco and is 3-5 on the year with a 5.12 ERA, .259 OBA and 1.48 WHIP over 11 starts. After a pretty good April Lincecum struggled going 1-4 with a 6.37 ERA in May. Over his last three starts he has allowed 6, 4, and 5 earned runs against. Note that the Giants are just 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games, 0-4 in their last 4 vs AL East opponents, and 1-4 in Lincecum’s last 5 starts. At +120 we’ve got value on Toronto tonight and I think they come out with a victory in Game 1 of this two game set.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 4

GoodFella

Houston Over 3.5 Team Total

First off, we do know that these Astros season to date numbers, are more favorable vs southpaws. However, these Astros have won 6 games in a row, and have scored 5 or more runs in 6 of their L/10 games, as well. This club is playing with confidence right now, and they do have a handful of very talented, be it young/lack experience good sticks in their lineup. Minute Maid Park can be an extreme hitters Park, and especially when the roof is open. I am NOT sure of the roof will be open tonight, as it's suppose to be in the high 80's at game time. Either way (open or closed) I do expect these scrappy Astros to plate 4 runs for us tonight. Baltimore sends out extreme fly ball SP Chris Tillman tonight, and he has given up 8 HR's in just 15 2/3 IP over his L/3 starts. We also know that while these O's have a "good bullpen" it's not a shut down backend and has had it's share of problems in the backend of their bullpen. I like these Astros to get to Tillman eventually and I definitely like these Astros to plate 4 runs for us tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 4

Greg Shaker

Rays / Tigers Under 8

I have 6.9 for this game. Scary to bet these teams UNDER for sure but a good weather pattern for the pitchers, 2 solid starters and the Rays Pen not as scary now as it was. One of the starters here tonight are likely to put in a gem of a game and most likely all that we are going to need.

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