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NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, June 3

NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, June 3

INDIANA (60 - 39) at MIAMI (77 - 20) - 6/3/2013, 8:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 54-43 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 92-78 ATS (+6.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 54-45 ATS (+4.5 Units) in all games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 12-10 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 13-9 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
13 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami   
Miami is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Miami is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games

Indiana at Miami
Indiana: 1-10 ATS away off BB Unders
Miami: 20-9 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, June 3

Pacers at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-7, 181)

Best-of-seven series tied 3-3.

The Indiana Pacers are one win away from making a surprise trip to the NBA Finals. The Miami Heat, who host the Pacers in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals on Monday, are one loss away from an offseason filled with tough questions. LeBron James has been his usual dominant self at times in the series but has gotten little help from his supporting cast. Indiana has controlled the inside in its three wins and will attempt to do so again.

Miami won Game 5 by evening thing up on the interior but fell off the pace again in Game 6, when the Pacers opened up a 53-33 advantage on the glass and a 44-22 edge in points in the paint. Some of that falls on Chris Bosh, who is 5-for-21 with 12 rebounds in the last three games combined and has yet to grab more than five boards in a game during the series. “I believe in my teammates,” James said. “They’re struggling right now, but we’ve got another chance on Monday.” Indiana is the only team to hold the Heat below 80 points this season and it has done it twice, including limiting Miami to a season-low 36.1 percent shooting in Saturday’s 91-77 triumph.

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana got superb play from Paul George and Roy Hibbert once again in Game 6. George led the way with 28 points and nailed a back-breaking 3-pointer in the fourth quarter when the Heat were making their final run. Hibbert followed that up by drawing an offensive foul on James as the Pacers turned the momentum. The Indiana big man has increased his visibility around the league with his play in the series and responded harshly when asked after the game why he had finished so low in the Defensive Player of the year voting. “Y’all (expletive) don’t watch us play throughout the year to tell you the truth,” he said. “So that’s fine. I’m going to be real with you and I don’t care if I get fined.” Hibbert also used a gay slur in answer to a question earlier in his postgame press conference and issued an apology on Sunday. That mini-controversy briefly overshadowed the great performance on the court from the Pacers, who are trying to advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000.

ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami has tried to spread the Indiana defense out by bringing Bosh out to the perimeter and spreading the floor around James with 3-pointer shooters, which has left the team vulnerable on the glass. Dwyane Wade’s slashing drives to the basket have been unsuccessful as well, and the star guard refused to blame a nagging knee injury for his lack of explosiveness after Game 6. In fact, Wade is lobbying for a bigger role in the offense. “We’ve got to do a good job of making sure me and (Bosh) have our opportunities to succeed throughout the game,” Wade told reporters. “That’s something we’re going to have to look at as a team.” Wade was productive in the first three games of the series but has shot 32 percent over the last three.


* Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Miami.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Heat’s last seven games following an ATS loss.


1. James has averaged 34.3 points in three career Game 7s.

2. The Pacers will be playing their first conference finals Game 7 since 1998 while the Heat will be enduring a Game 7 for the second straight season after knocking off the Boston Celtics en route to the championship in 2012.

3. Miami will have F Chris Andersen, who served a one-game suspension in Game 6, available for the finale. He is 15-for-15 from the floor in the series.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, June 3

Game 7, Pacers at Heat
By Chris David

All eyes will be on American Airlines Arena on Monday as the Heat and Pacers meet in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The winner will earn the chance to meet San Antonio in the NBA Finals this Thursday.

Miami was listed as an overwhelming favorite to win the best-of-seven battle, a handful of betting shops listing Miami as high as a 1/7 price (Bet $700 to win $100). The take-back on Indiana could’ve been purchased at 5/1 (Bet $100 to win $500) before the series began and that price soared to 7/1 (Bet $100 to win $700) after the Heat opened a 2-1 series lead.

The Heat put forth their best effort in Game 3, outclassing Indiana 114-96 and securing a wire-to-wire road victory. We mention that game because as good as Miami looked in the win, they looked just as bad in Saturday’s 91-77 loss to the Pacers in Game 6.

Miami actually led 40-38 at halftime before Indiana came out of the break with a 29-15 third quarter. The Pacers led by as many as 17 points and they withstood many runs from the Heat’s “B” squad. Roy Hibbert finished with 24 points and 11 rebounds, while Paul George posted 28 points, eight re bounds and five assist for the Pacers. LeBron James did his part once again for Miami, scoring 29 points, but nobody else on the team finished with more than 10 points and that’s been the hot topic in South Florida lately.

The production from Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh has been pathetic and that’s probably being nice. In the first six games of this series, LeBron has outscored the pair by 16 points (171-155), put up the same amount of assists (33) and has grabbed only six less rebounds (43-49).

Similar to past performances, Bosh took his fair share of the blame. “I didn't show up for my teammates tonight," he said, "and it will not happen again."

Wade however, quickly pointed the finger at others. "We've got to do a better job, all of us, helping get each other involved in the game. We've got to do a better job of making sure me and Chris can have opportunities to succeed.

Both Bosh and Wade are dealing with nagging injuries and you have to wonder what they have left in the tank for Game 7. Should you bet your hard earned money on the Heat knowing that the two-thirds of the so-called “Big Three” is shot?

Along with that question, there are plenty of others and we leaned on handicapper Kevin Rogers to answer them for you.
Looking at this series, Miami has responded with two wins both straight up and against the spread off a loss and this team hasn’t dropped back-to-back games since early January. Will the Heat rebound on Monday?

Rogers answered, “It's too easy to say that the Heat will automatically bounce back because they are back at home.  However, past James, Miami isn't receiving the necessary support from Wade, Bosh, and the supporting cast to be successful against an Indiana squad getting consistent efforts.  The Pacers haven't won back-to-back games either in this series, but they have pulled off the home win/road win in consecutive contests back in the first round against the Hawks.”

This series has been Indiana’s triple-headed monster of Hibbert, George and David West vs. the NBA’s Most Valuable Player, LeBron. Assuming both sides show up Monday, the game could come down to who gets better play from their backcourt. As a gambler, who do you have more faith in – the Pacers’ backcourt of Lance Stephenson and George Hill or the threesome of Wade, Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole?

“Indiana's backcourt has been up and down in the scoring department, but at least they have healthy bodies to throw out.  Wade's shooting is off and his athleticism has dropped off due to his injured knee.  I would count on Indiana's tandem of Hill and Stephenson since they have ability to hit shots and disturb Miami's backcourt,” answered Rogers.

Even though the series is knotted at 3-3, the Heat are still listed as seven-point home favorites over the Pacers and the money-line is as high as minus-400 (Bet $400 to win $100), which is definitely inflated.

History is on the Heat’s side here, with the home team winning close to 80% of Game 7’s in the NBA playoffs. Should bettors take that into consideration?

Rogers answered, “It's something to keep an eye on, but every series has unfolded differently with varying factors so that can't exactly be the path to follow when handicapping this game.  Also, the Heat has been involved in only one Game 7 since the Big Three has come together, so they are also new in this spot.”

In last year’s championship run, Miami beat Boston 101-88 in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and they also covered the number as well. During this year’s NBA playoffs, there has only been one Game 7 and Chicago surprised some folks by beating Brooklyn 99-93 on the road.

Total players have watched the 'under' cash in two straight games and Game 7 has the lowest opening number (181) posted in this series. Should we expect another grind-it-out affair?

“It's not crazy to take the 'under' again simply because the Heat has to rely on James to carry them offensively.  Indiana does not want to get into a back- and-forth affair, but another thing to consider is George's shooting, which has been streaky in the series.  The 'under' is definitely worth a look with both teams putting up horrible quarters in each of the last two games,” said Rogers.

Another factor to watch is the free throw attempts. In Game 6, we saw a combined 37, which was up from 27 combined in Game 5. Outside of the insane shooting in Game 3, which was the only true ‘over’ winner, the other three games in this series were aided by free throws. Will the officials let them play Monday or should we expect a lot of whistles. Unfortunately, you can’t handicap the refs, regardless of what you conspiracy theorists believe.

TNT will conclude their 2013 playoff coverage with an 8:35 p.m. ET tip-off.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, June 3

2013 NBA Playoffs

Miami (other than James) was 16-51 in Game 6; Haslem was scoreless after going 8-9 from floor in Game 5. Huge question is this: who will be the Heat player to give Lebron some scoring support? Andersen comes back from suspension for Miami, which is 9-0 vs spread in game after its last nine losses, but Andersen isn't a scorer. Over is 7-3 in this round of playoffs, but last two games in this series stayed under. Stephenson is 14-31 from floor in three Indiana wins, 6-27 in its losses, but most of that damage was done in one game. Question: if Indiana is up a point in last 0:10 and Miami has ball, will Hibbert be on the floor? Ya think?

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, June 3

Monday's NBA Action


After alternating wins for each of the first six games of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat will host the Pacers in a decisive Game 7 on Monday hoping to reach the NBA Finals for a third straight season.

In Game 5, LeBron James was able to lead Miami to a victory despite the poor play of his teammates. In Game 6, the lack of a supporting cast caught up to the Heat, who had no player other than James eclipse 10 points, in a 91-77 loss at Indiana. The well-balanced Pacers had four scorers in double-figures, including three who scored at least 16 points. They certainly played with more heart and passion on Saturday too, as they out-rebounded their opponent by a total of 20 boards (53 to 33). Indiana as a team also totaled 19 assists while the Heat shot a season-worst 36.1% FG and totaled only 10 assists, while committing 13 turnovers. So far in the playoffs, the Pacers are 12-6 ATS (67%), including 4-2 ATS in the East Finals.
Although they won Game 2 at AmericanAirlines Arena, they have not been a good road bet this season, going 24-25 ATS and 22-27 SU. However, Miami is just 8-7 ATS this postseason and 25-24 ATS at home during the 2012-13 campaign, despite a 43-6 SU mark. The Heat have been resilient after losses this season though, going 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS (68%) and outscoring these teams by 11.7 PPG. Indiana has struggled to string together win streaks though, going 32-27 SU and 27-32 ATS (46%) following an SU win this season.

The Pacers came played a spectacular game on Saturday, shutting down every single Heat player with the exception of LeBron James. SF Paul George (21.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.3 APG in series) was unstoppable all evening on his way to a playoff career-high 28 points (3-of-5 threes), eight rebounds, five assists and three steals.

C Roy Hibbert (22.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG in series) continued to dominate the paint against Miami with 24 points (11-of-20 FG) and 11 rebounds in 42 minutes. Hibbert drew a huge charge on LeBron James late in the fourth that sparked a technical foul on James that ultimately took the Heat out of the game once and for all.

PG George Hill (13.0 PPG, 4.7 APG in series) played his best game of the series as he found his teammates for six assists while also scoring 16 points (6-of-12 FG, 2-of-4 threes) with a +12 rating in 43 minutes.

Backcourt mate SG Lance Stephenson (8.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.0 APG in series) didn't look for his shot (1-for-4 FG), but tallied 12 boards, four assists and a +18 rating. Stephenson and Hill combined for just five points in Game 5, so their improvement was a game changer for Indiana.

PF David West (17.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG in series) had a quiet night offensively with 11 points on 5-of-14 shooting, but he did have a game-high 14 rebounds, four assists, two blocks and a +18 rating in 36 minutes.

Miami was struggling all evening, and besides LeBron James’ 29 points (10-for-21 FG), the rest of the team shot 31.4% from the field, with the highest scorers for the Heat being PG Mario Chalmers and SG Dwyane Wade, who each had just 10 points. In addition to his scoring outburst, James (28.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 5.5 APG in series) also grabbed seven rebounds and dished out six assists in 42 minutes, but still posted a game-worst rating of minus-22. He has shined in Game 7's in his career, averaging 34.3 PPG and 8.3 RPG in three such series cappers. Wade made just 3-of-11 FG in 34 minutes while also expressing his desire to touch the ball more after the game. Over the past three contests, Wade (14.5 PPG, 4.8 APG, 4.5 RPG in series) is a dreadful 11-of-34 from the floor (38% FG).

PF Chris Bosh (11.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG in series) has also struggled mightily for Miami as he had just five points (1-of-8 FG) and four rebounds in 31 minutes in Game 6. Bosh has combined to tally just 19 points and 12 rebounds over the course of the last three games. Chalmers (12.0 PPG, 3.0 APG in series) scored 10 points on 3-of-8 FG, but provided little else for Miami throughout the course of the game, with zero assists, two rebounds, two turnovers and a minus-17 rating.

PF Udonis Haslem (7.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG in series) exploded in Game 5 with 16 points on 8-of-9 FG, but was scoreless on Saturday, going 0-for-2 from the field and piling up four fouls in just 16 minutes of action.

Miami was missing PF Chris Andersen (7.2 PPG on 15-of-15 FG in series), who was suspended for Game 6 after his cheap shot on Tyler Hansbrough, and his energy in Game 7 could give the Heat a much-needed boost.

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