Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 2

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 2

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Tampa Bay at Cleveland
The Rays look to build on their 8-0 record in Jeremy Hellickson's last 8 Sunday starts. Tampa Bay is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115)

Game 901-902: NY Mets at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Harvey) 14.830; Miami (Slowey) 13.743
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-200); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-200); Over

Game 903-904: Washington at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Karns) 15.375; Atlanta (Maholm) 16.651
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-180); Under

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 16.275; Pittsburgh (Gomez) 14.932
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Under

Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Fiers) 12.820; Philadelphia (Lee) 13.986
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-175); Over

Game 909-910: San Francisco at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Gaudin) 14.326; St. Louis (Lyons) 16.578
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Over

Game 911-912: Arizona at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 16.389; Cubs (Jackson) 14.878
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-135); N/A

Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 14.318; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.846
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-140); Under

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.829; Cleveland (McAllister) 15.743
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115); Over

Game 917-918: Detroit at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 17.119; Baltimore (Gausman) 15.404
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Over

Game 919-920: Seattle at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Bonderman) 13.948; Minnesota (Diamond) 15.405
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-140); Under

Game 921-922: Kansas City at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Santana) 14.942; Texas (Darvish) 15.969
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-220); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-220); Under

Game 923-924: Houston at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lyles) 16.109; LA Angels (Wilson) 15.086
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+220); Over

Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 13.435; Oakland (Parker) 15.813
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Over

Game 927-928: Boston at NY Yankees (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 15.898; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.362
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Under

Game 929-930: Toronto at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Ortiz) 15.102; San Diego (Volquez) 16.548
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Under

WNBA

Tulsa at Chicago
The Shock look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games against a team with a losing SU record. Tulsa is the pick (+15 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by only 7. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+15 1/2)

Game 601-602: Atlanta at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 109.297; Washington 104.730
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 169
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 163 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Over

Game 603-604: Tulsa at Chicago (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 106.148; Chicago 113.269
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 15 1/2; 164
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+15 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: Phoenix at Seattle (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 99.793; Seattle 108.241
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 8 1/2; 167
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 10 1/2; 162
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+10 1/2); Over

NHL

Los Angeles at Chicago
The Blackhawks look to follow up last night's 2-1 win and build on their 10-3 record in their last 13 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Chicago is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-160)

Game 5-6: Los Angeles at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.852; Chicago 13.299
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-160); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 2

CRAIG DAVIS

Free play of the day on the Cincinnati Reds over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the conclusion of their three-game set.

I realize I'm taking a bit of a risk here, considering the Reds have shut out the Pirates in each of the first two games of this series (6-0 & 2-0), but the pitching matchup still favors Cincy in my opinion.

Mat Latos (5-0, 3.01 ERA) won his 9th straight regular season decision without a loss Tuesday when he held the Cleveland Indians to just one run on five hits over six innings of an 8-2 win.

Latos has already accumulated four wins vs. NL Central foes this season and is 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in vs. the Pirates in seven career starts. He's also holding Pittsburgh batters to just a .203 batting average against.

Cincinnati has won eight of its last 11 games overall and 14 of its last 20 on the road... but it didn't start that way. The Reds started 1-8 on the road to begin the season before they got their act together.

Jeanmar Gomez counters for the Pirates, coming off his best start of the year. He's currently filling in as a temporary #5 starter in the Pittsburgh rotation and isn't used to the grind of that many innings.

Sure, he'll have good starts from time to time, but he's not seasoned like Latos.

I'll go with Cincinnati as your free play of the day.

2* CINCINNATI

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 2

JEFF BENTON

Sunday freebie will be the Over in the Mariners-Twins.

Look who is back in the bigs...Jeremy Bonderman is back and making his first start since the 2010 season. I am not expecting the former Tiger hurler to go too deep in this one, and I am expecting him to give up a few runs before his 6 innings or so is over.

Countering will be Scott Diamond who has not had much luck at all for Minnesota. Diamond has allowed 19 runs his last 20 plus innings of work, and each of his last 3 assignments have landed Over the total.

On Saturday, the Twins rallied for 3 in the 9th to send the game Over the total. Minnesota has now played Overs in 4 of their last 6 games. Sunday's game will go Over too!

M's-Twins light the Target Field scoreboard up.

4* SEATTLE-MINNESOTA OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 2

BRAD WILTON

Your Sunday comp play comes on the Red Sox-Yankees as I look for Clay Buchholz and Hiroki Kuroda to be dealing from the first inning until late in the game, as the Sox-Yanks hold Under the total.

Both pitchers have been more "on" then "off" this season, and Buchholz enters with a scant 1.73 ERA for the season. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of his 10 starts this year, including an early April win over the Yankees in which he allowed just 1 run over 7 innings, while scattering 6 hits.

Hiroki Kuroda just worked 7 scoreless with 7 strikeouts against the Mets his last time out, as he has allowed 2 runs or less of his last 9 starts. The Under is 4-0-1 the last 5 games he has started.

Friday night was an Under for the teams, while yesterday Boston got their bats going plating 11 runs, while the Yankees could only muster 1 run.

I do not expect too many runs to cross tonight. Red Sox-Yankees to stay Under this Sunday night.

2* BOSTON-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 2

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Chi. White Sox vs. OaklandFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Chi. White SoxFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Although he did drop his complimentary play on the Pirates, Ben Burns went 5-0 with his premium picks, once again.
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Burns is now 15-0 since Wednesday and 17-1 since Tuesday.
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Here, he takes a look at the finale of the Chicago/Oakland series.
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The A's took have taken the first two games of this series. With Chris Sale on the mound, the Sox figure to have a solid shot at avoiding the sweep.
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Both today's starters are in excellent current form. Jarrod Parker has turned things around and has a 2.57 ERA / 0.905 WHIP his last three starts.
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Sale has been better though. In fact, he's been nearly unhittable. He's got a 0.37 ERA and 0.542 WHIP his last three starts, averaging eight innings per outing. (He's 4-1 with a 1.40 ERA his last six.)
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A look at the entire season also shows Sale with much better numbers than Parker. He's 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.922 WHIP. The Sox are 7-2 (+5.2) when he takes the mound.
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On the other hand, Parker is 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.525 WHIP on the season.
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Parker is averaging 5.6 innings per start and has 44 Ks, 26 walks and 11 home runs allowed. Sale has 61 K's vs. 15 walks and only six home runs allowed.
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Parker hasn't fared well at his own ballpark either. He's 2-3 with a 6.42 ERA in three starts here.
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It should also be noted that Parker is 0-2 with a 9.58 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in two daytime starts, opposing batters hitting .341 against him.
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While it appears possible that they'll be without Konerko, the Sox haven't been swept here since 2007. With Sale on the mound, at this price, I feel they're worth a look.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City vs. TexasFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TexasFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After winning Game 1 of this series by a score of 7-2, Texas lost to the Royals in extra-innings last night by a score of 4-1. The rubber match goes this afternoon at the Ballpark in Arlington, and Yu Darvish will get the nod for the home team.
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Darvish (7-2, 3.03 ERA) is coming off consecutive team losses in his last two starts, despite pitching quite well. He allowed four runs on seven hits over 7 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss to Arizona his last time out, but he also tallied 14 K's in that game.
Prior to that he allowed just one run on five hits over six innings, losing 1-0 to Oakland. He should get a fair amount of run support today against the Royals, as Ervin Santana has really struggled.
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Santana (3-5, 3.33 ERA) has lost four straight decisions, and he's been roughed up in three of those four starts. He allowed four runs on seven hits over 7 1/3 innings in a 4-1 loss to St. Louis his last time out. Prior to that he surrendered five runs on eight hits in a 5-4 loss to the Angels. He gave up seven home runs in those two games, and that's a scary thought facing Texas in Arlington.
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Santana is 3-3 with a 6.75 ERA in seven starts versus Texas since 2010.
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The Rangers have the 3rd best batting average in the majors, and they are 17-8 at home this year. The Royals on the other hand have just three wins in their last 16 games, and they are in a tough spot in Texas today.

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Will RogersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati vs. PittsburghFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates have yet to score a run in this series, and they don't figure to get many, if any, Sunday afternoon when going up against unbeaten Mat Latos. I'm taking the Reds in this spot and calling for them to finish off the sweep.
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Here are my keys to the game.FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Reds Pitching - It's been superb so far this weekend with Johnny Cueto allowing only one hit over eight innings Friday and then Mike Leake following things up yesterday.  Latos should continue the trend today. He is 5-0 with a 3.02 ERA in 2013 (11 starts) and the team is 9-2 when he gets the baseball. He allowed just one earned run in his last start, an 8-2 win over Cleveland.  In all starts the last two seasons, Latos owns a phenomenal 32-13 TSR!
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2.  Pirates Offense - Obviously, the flip side of the great Cincinnati pitching has been the weak Pittsburgh hitting.  Over the last five games, they have scored just seven times and been held to one run or less four times.  I put too much faith in Francisco Liriano, who did pitch well, yesterday.  But the bottom line is that despite a solid home record, the Bucs are now averaging less than 3.5 runs per game at PNC Park this season.
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3.  X-Factor - While Jeanmar Gomez has yet to lose this season himself, he has no offense to back him up and I haven't even mentioned how Latos is 4-0 in seven career starts vs. Pittsburgh, owning a 2.40 ERA and 1.156 WHIP.

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Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Chi. White Sox vs. OaklandFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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While the A's are hot and the White Sox are not, it's also true that the road team has Chris Sale and the home team does not.  Therefore, I expect runs to be at a real premium Sunday afternoon as the White Sox and their AL worst offense send out their ace pitcher to try and help them avoid the sweep.  I like the Under in this matchup.....
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After the A's shut Chicago out in Friday's series opener, they came back and won again Saturday, this time in extra innings. This time the final score was 4-3, the fifth time in the last seven games Oakland has seen the Under cash.  The Athletics had 16 hits yesterday, but they would be lucky to get even half that Sunday against Sale, who has a 0.37 ERA his last three starts and is coming off B2B 3-0 wins where he's allowed a total of only four hits in 16.7 IP w/ a 19-3 KW ratio.  Sale is currently working on a 23-inning scoreless streak.
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Unfortunately, Sale shouldn't expect much run support from an offense that has scored the fewest times in the entire American League.  They are averaging less than two runs per game during a five-game losing streak and have been shut out twice during that span. They have not scored more than three runs in any of Sale's last three starts, and haven't needed to as he's won all of them.  Expect a low-scoring game today.

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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland IndiansSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Cleveland IndiansFORFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tribe caps off a three-game series with the Rays in Cleveland where Zach McAllister take on Jeremy Hellickson at Progressive Field Sunday afternoon. McAllister has been a steady force for the Indians this season where he is 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA at home this campaign. He is also 3-1 in his day starts this year. On the flip side, Hellickson is 0-2 during the day this season and 2-7 in his career team starts during June. With that, look for the visiting team to slip to 2-10 in Hellickson's teams start this season here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 2

Jimmy Boyd

Texas Rangers -1½

This game falls into a system to play against road underdogs on the run line when they are a +110 to +155 dog with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games and when they are a terrible offensive team scoring less than 4.2 runs per game against a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 4.20 in the American League. This system is 44-15 (75%) over the last 5 seasons.

Yu Darvish will be the starter for the Rangers today and he is 7-2 this season in 11 starts. In those 11 starts Darvish has posted a 2.03 ERA and 0.955 WHIP. He has 105 strikeouts in just 74.3 total innings pitched. Kansas City will have Ervin Santana who appears to be losing all confidence in each start. In his last three starts he is 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA and has allowed over two home runs per game for a total of 7. The Rangers are batting .304 as a team over their last seven games which means it should be a short night for Santana as the Rangers take this one in a blowout.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 2

Steve Rosen

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies    
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Lee has recorded five straight quality starts and is 4-0 with a 1.15 ERA over that span. He followed up a three-hitter at Miami with another stellar outing last time out at Boston, holding the Red Sox to one run over eight innings with eight strikeout. Phillies rookie Cesar Hernandez, who is filling in for injured 2B Chase Utley, had three hits Saturday and is 5-for-15 since being called up.

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Jeffrey Brandes

Philadelphia Phillies -1½

Pitchers:
MILWAUKEE BREWERS: MICHAEL FIERS (R) ERA: 10.00 W/L: 0-2
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: CLIFF LEE (L) ERA: 2.34 W/L: 6-2

For the Brewers, MICHAEL FIERS will be making his third start of the year to go with eight bullpen appearances. As a starter, Fiers is 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA, giving up six earned runs in five innings against Arizona in April and then four earned runs in four innings against the Pirates last weekend.

The Phillies' CLIFF LEE is 4-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his past five starts after defeating the Red Sox on Tuesday, when he allowed four hits, one run and struck out eight in eight innings. The Phillies are looking to take the third game of this series after dropping the first two. Saturday's victory marked the Brewers' first back-to-back wins since April 29-30. I expect Lee to come up big for the PHILLIES today.

Key Trends:
Philadelphia is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing Milwaukee
Philadelphia is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against

Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Milwaukee is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 2

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit  vs. Baltimore
Play: Over 10

This one shapes up to be a high scoring game as we have 2 Pitchers in Porcello and Gausman that have elevated earned run averages. Porcello for Detroit has a 7.71 Era on the road and has allowed 16 earned runs in just 18 innings. In his 2 starts here in Baltimore he has allowed 7 runs in 11 innings and 3 of his 4 road starts have gone over the total. Gausman for Baltimore has made 2 starts and has allowed 11 earned runs in 4+ innings. In the series here these two have played over in 6 of the last 9. The Orioles have played over in 5 of 7 as a home dog from +100 to +125 and 3 of 4 times at home when the total is 10 or higher. Detroit has played over 10 of 11 times as a road favorite after scoring 10 or more runs in a road game and 6 of 9 on the road when the total is 10 or more. In day games the Orioles have played over in 14 of 19 games while scoring over 5 runs per game. Detroit has played over the total in 15 of 23 Day games. Based on all the Statistics above we will take this game to fly over the posted total today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 2

Jim Feist

Dodgers at Rockies
Pick: Over

It's still a three horse race right now in the NL West with Arizona holding first place and San Francisco and Colorado tied for second. The Rockies aren't going to beat many teams with their pitching staff, evidenced by their 4.29 runs per game average. Surprisingly though, the Dodgers are ranked right behind them, allowing 4.19 rpg. The Dodgers have been raked by injuries all season, especially in their pitching staff. LA will send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the hill today. Ryu has pitched great for the Dodgers, posting a 6-2 record in his first season in the majors with a 2.89 ERA. Jorge De La Rosa will counter for the Rockies. De La Rosa has also pitched well, posting a 6-3 mark and 3.16 ERA. Still, this is Coors Field where the the first two games of this series produced 12 and 13 runs respectively. And that was with Kershaw and Greinke on the hill for the Dodgers. Colorado has scored the most runs in the NL this season, posting 268 (75 more than the Dodgers). Ryu did face Colorado once this year, but that was in pitcher friendly Chavez Ravine. Might be a rude awakening for the rookie here on Sunday with his first visit to the rarefied air of Denver. The Rockies have also gone OVER in 13 of their last 20 games at home against lefthanded pitching. Looks like another slug-fest here on Sunday.

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox at Oakland AthleticsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Chicago White SoxFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago White Sox are a bad baseball team. They don't hit much, the defense is shaky at best and I've seen too many games already where the energy just doesn't seem to be there. Basically, they have the look of a veteran team that realistically knows they aren't going anyplace, and that attitude seems to show on at least an occasional basis.
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But there is the exception to the above assessment. That's when Chris Sale takes the mound. The entire team seems to be play with more focus, as if they really believe they're going to win the game that day. The results show that they usually do precisely that, as the Chisox are 7-2 with Sale pitching, including five straight current wins.
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Sale is apparently fine now after a little arm irritation. He's gone through that before and as yet we have not seen any residual impact when he returns. In fact, these little breaks might be a good thing for Sale as it might keep him from wearing down.
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The concern here is asking the moribund White Sox offense to get something going against Jarred Parker. The Oakland righty seems to have gotten things together following a terrible start to the season that actually went all the way back to the opening of spring training. Parker has, however, had some trouble in a small sample of work against the lineup he's probably going to see today.
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From a team standpoint, this is a tough sell on the White Sox. They're on an 0-5 skid, while Oakland is charging hard in the AL West yet again. But Ssle remains a go with option for the visitors, and at close to even money I'm going to take my chances with the White Sox to get a win today.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers at Baltimore OriolesFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Some AL East observers wonder if Buck Showalter might be wearing out the Oriole bullpen, which has been overworked for the first two months of the season and has shown signs of wobbling lately. That could be bad news on Sunday vs. the visiting Tigers, as Birds starter Kevin Gausman has looked mostly awful in two starts since his call-up from AA, posting an 11.00 ERA and surrendering four homers. The latter is a particular problem vs. a power-laden Detroit lineup that hit five homers in Saturday's 10-3 rout. Note that Tiger starter Rick Porcello is off one his best-ever outings when surrendering just 3 hits and no runs over 8 IP while striking out 12 last Tuesday at Pittsburgh, and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in three of his last four starts. "Run Line" alert--eight of last nine O's losses have been by multi-run margins.

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Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Rays / Indians Under 9FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Jeremy Hellickson and Zach McAllister will finish off a long three-game series in Cleveland on Sunday. After playing until 3 a.m. local time on Saturday morning and having a quick turnaround to play on a sultry Saturday afternoon, the Rays are looking forward to Monday's off day with a short trip to Detroit and the Indians will head to New York City to take on the Yankees. Hellickson is the kind of pitcher that has given the Indians fits this season. He sits between 88-91 with his fastball, throws a lot of offspeed stuff, and has a terrific changeup. While most looked at Hellickson as a regression candidate for the last two seasons, he's not as bad as he has been this season. In fact, with an increased K%, decreased BB%, and the lowest line drive rate of his career, his SIERA is LOWER than his last two quality seasons. He doesn't issue many walks and throws a lot of strikes, which are two things that hurt the Indians lineup.
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Zach McAllister has turned into one of the most underrated starters in the American League. All 10 of McAllister's starts this season have been 5+ IP and 3 or fewer earned runs allowed. Like Hellickson, McAllister throws a lot of strikes and has become more of a pitch-to-contact pitcher this season. The Rays are not a high average team and they rely on being disciplined and waiting for mistakes. McAllister hasn't made many of them, averaging just one home run against per nine innings.
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Both bullpens will have all hands on deck and one of these two teams has been shut out in four of the five games in the season series to date.

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Boston vs. NY YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Clay Buchholz (7-0, 1.73 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Buchholz had his last start skipped due to some inflammation in his shoulder; he's since done a long throwing session and has been cleared to throw Sunday night. Buchholz has been one of the best pitchers in the league thus far and will be opposed by Hiroki Kuroda (6-3, 2.39 ERA) who is coming off an absolute gem vs. the Mets on Tuesday, allowing four hits with a walk while walking none over seven shutout innings with seven K's, unfortunate to be saddled with a no-decision. "Recent performance" plays a big part in my handicapping repertoire and these two hurlers simply couldn't be more dialled in or confident at the moment. I expect them to battle each other into the latter frames and will recommend a second look at the "under" in this matchup. How about you? What do you think? Are these two pitchers over-rated, or will they "deliver the goods" on Sunday night?

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Dave Price

Cleveland Indians -122

The Indians are 16-5 in their last 21 home games and should continue their home-field dominance here behind a gem from McAllister. The right-hander has a 2.16 home ERA on the season and a 1.53 ERA against the Rays. The Indians are 5-1 in McAllister's last 6 home starts. It's been a tough start for Tampa Bay's Hellickson, who has a 5.61 ERA on the season. Going back to last year, the Rays are 1-9 in Hellickson's last 10 road starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-11 in their last 12 games overall as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Rays are 18-37 in their last 55 meetings in Cleveland. Take the Tribe.

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Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies -157FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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One of the big bright spots for the Phillies in 2013 has been the dominance of ace Cliff Lee. In his first 11 starts, he's 6-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.967 WHIP. Lee's been nearly unhittable in his last three starts. During this stretch he's got a 1.12 ERA and 0.708 WHIP. Considering the Brewers are a miserable 9-16 on the road and 5-18 against left-handed pitcher, this is one spot where I feel extremely confident about laying big juice on a home favorite. Even more so when you consider how bad opposing starter Michael Fiers has been in his two starts this season. Fiers is 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP (10 runs on 14 hits and 1 walk).

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