Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, May 30

Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, May 30

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Indiana at Miami
The Pacers look to take advantage of a Miami team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. Indiana is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7 1/2)

Game 519-520: Indiana at Miami (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 121.593; Miami 127.026
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7 1/2; 185
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7 1/2); Over

MLB

Seattle at San Diego
The Padres look to build on their 5-1 record in Andrew Cashner's last 6 starts as an underdog. San Diego is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100)

Game 951-952: Arizona at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 15.470; Texas (Grimm) 15.149
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+145); Over

Game 953-954: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 13.503; Cubs (Wood) 16.136
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-110); N/A

Game 955-956: Seattle at San Diego (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.113; San Diego (Cashner) 16.284
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over

Game 957-958: Oakland at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 15.622; San Francisco (Zito) 15.825
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Under

Game 959-960: Detroit at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 15.468; Pittsburgh (Locke) 16.394
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over

Game 961-962: Boston at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Morales) 15.809; Philadelphia (Pettibone) 14.997
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 963-964: Washington at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Haren) 16.325; Baltimore (Garcia) 15.989
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Over

Game 965-966: NY Mets at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.704; NY Yankees (Nuno) 15.369
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Under

Game 967-968: Cincinnati at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.023; Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.236
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Under

Game 969-970: Toronto at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 16.181; Atlanta (Minor) 15.165
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+140); Over

Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Colome) 15.780; Miami (Nolasco) 13.472
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-185); Under

Game 973-974: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 13.035; Minnesota (Walters) 14.324
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Over

Game 975-976: Kansas City at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 13.748; St. Louis (Wacha) 16.178
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Under

Game 977-978: Houston at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Harrell) 14.479; Colorado (Nicasio) 14.226
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-220); 10
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+180); Over

Game 979-980: LA Dodgers at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Lilly) 15.409; LA Angels (Vargas) 16.945
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, May 30

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles AngelsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Los Angeles AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Angels and Dodgers puts the wraps on this four-game cross town rivalry in the finale of the final two games in Anaheim when the Angels send Jason Vargas to the hill against Ted Lilly Thursday night. Aside from having dominated the Dodgers in this park (11-1 previous twelve games entering last night's fray), the Halos are 4-1 at home behind Vargas this season. With Vargas 6-0 in his last six-team starts during the month of May, and Lilly 0-3 in his last three-team starts against the Angels, we'll back the hosts here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the L.A. Angels.

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Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana Pacers at Miami HeatFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We've successfully backed the Over in each of the last three games in this series, and we'll come right back with another Over selection in tonight's Game Five. These teams have gone over the total in all four games so far, and the linesmakers have been slow to adjust their lines and once again have tonight's total at a low 185 (as of this writing on Wednesday night). The first two games played here in Miami saw both games go over the total by a combined 31 points, and we look for another strong offensive effort from both teams tonight. Miami is coming off just their third loss of this postseason, and have put up final scores of 115 and 114 in the two games immediately following those losses. Indiana has shot 50% from the floor in two of their last three games and we find the Heat in the same Over trend they've been in every game this series which is to play over with a total priced between 180 and 189.5 points. They've gone over 18 of the last 23 times in this spot including 4-0 this series.

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas RangersVISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Arizona DiamondbacksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona is a fine team with a winning record both home and away. The Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 games as a road underdog and have a good arm on the hill in Wade Miley, who has a 1.17 ERA against Texas. Rangers starter Derek Holland is favored but is only 1-1 at home. The Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record and 1-5 in their last six interleague games. Play the Diamondbacks.

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Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dan Haren (4-5, 5.43 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Haren struck out ten over six frames vs. the Phillies on Saturday, but gave up three runs off four hits with a walk in the no-decision. The veteran's inconsistent season continues opposite Freddy Garcia (1-2, 4.61 ERA) who was a bit lucky to earn his first victory of the year vs. the Blue Jays last Saturday. Garcia would give up three runs off nine hits over five frames of work. The 36-year old right-hander continues to be a work in progress and his low strikeout rate is definitely an are of concern. Two suspect hurlers going head to head on Thursday night; I expect the starters to get chased early and for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

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Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland A's vs. San Francisco GiantsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The A's have won six straight games and going back further, they are 11-1 over their last 12 games. This includes winning the first three games of this four-game home-and-home set as they have outscored the Giants 19-10. The pitching has led the way during this run as Oakland has allowed three runs or fewer nine times. A.J. Griffin hopes to keep that run going but it won't be easy. After tossing four straight quality outings, he allowed four runs in 5.2 innings at Houston to increase his ERA to 4.31 on the road. The Giants are 17-5 in their last 22 interleague home games against right-handed starters. San Francisco had won four of six prior to facing Oakland and despite the loss last night, it is 19-10 in its 29 home games this season. Additionally, the Giants have won four straight games following losses in the first three games of a series and they should add to that with Barry Zito on the hill. After a great performance in the postseason last year, he opened this year right where he left off as he tossed two seven inning games of shutout ball in his first two starts. He has regressed since then but most of the damage has been on the road where he has a 10.19 ERA in four starts. Conversely, he is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA in six home starts with the Giants going 6-0 in those games. Going back further, the Giants are 11-0 in Zito's last 11 home starts with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5.

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Jeffrey Brandes

New York Yankees -159 

Pitchers:
NEW YORK METS: DILLON GEE (R) ERA: 6.34 W/L: 2-6
NEW YORK YANKEES: VIDAL NUNO (L) ERA: 1.64 W/L: 1-0

For the Mets, DILLON GEE has gone five straight starts without going past the fifth inning, and he's allowed at least four earned runs in six of his 10 starts this season.

The Yankees' VIDAL NUNO was effective again in his second big league start, holding the Rays to two runs and five hits over six innings. He's 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings as a starter.

Key Trends:
NY Yankees are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games at home
NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Mets

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego PadresVISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Seattle MarinersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle fits a fresh system direct from the database that has cashed 90% of the time the last 10 seasons and plays on road favorites with a total that is 8 or less that are off a 1 run road dog loss in a game where the total was 8 or less and they scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits with no errors. These teams are winning by 3 runs per game. Seattle has Felix Hernandez on the mound and he is 5-0 in his career at San Diego allowing just 7 earned runs in 38 innings. He has a fine 2.11 road era this season. He will oppose and Equally hot Padres starter in Andrew Cashner who has won all 3 home starts. he will have to be lights out here today to match King Felix. Look for the Mariners to get the bad taste of last nights extra inning loss out of their mouths. Make it the Mariners today.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Mets at New York YankeesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New York YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees are probably saying enough of this nonsense as they stand on the brink of losing all four of these midweek games vs. their inter-borough rival Mets. But before the Mets can bring out the broom, they're going to have to figure out a way to survive with Dillon Gee (8.36 ERA and .373 OBA last three starts; 9.97 ERA away from Citi Field this season) on the mound. It won't be easy, especially since the Yanks have received very solid work from Vidal Nuno, who has posted a solid 1.93 ERA in his two starts. Nuno likely gets some cushion tonight as the Bronx Bombers take advantage of the shaky Gee on the mound for the Mets. Play Yankees

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas RangersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Arizona DiamondbacksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brandon McCarthy got off to a terrible start this season. But as I kept pointing out in analyzing what was taking place, McCarthy was more a victim than a punching bag in those early starts. BABIP can be a very useful stat in determining whether a pitcher is really getting whacked or might just be getting very unlucky. In the case of McCarthy, it was more the latter and it was just a matter of time until there would be a correction. That's pretty much what has taken place lately, and now the veteran righty heads into Texas on a nice roll. The Diamondbacks as a team are flying high these days. I did not think this team would be a serious contender in the NL West, ans there's still a long way to go before they can start printing playoff tickets. But the Snakes are playing good ball, and if the unexpected bright lights on this team continue to shine, they're a good bet to stay in the race. The Rangers are always tough and they figure to be seething after dropping a pair on Monday to this opponent. This team was not pleased about the decision of the Diamondbacks to play the scheduled doubleheader on the holiday, so there's a revenge factor of sorts in play tonight. Justin Grimm has done reasonably good work for the Rangers pitching at the back end of their rotation. His ERA is respectable and Grimm's analytical numbers are showing him to be a legit big league starter at this point. I sure can't knock anyone who wants to back the Rangers tonight. They're still the better team and Texas can be very inhospitable hosts. But McCarthy is scorching right now for Arizona. McCarthy has surrendered just one run in his last three starts, and I'm definitely a fan of backing red hot hurlers at plus money. I'll side with McCarthy and the Diamondbacks to pick up another win tonight.

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Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City vs. St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even though the MLB-leading Cardinals will be sending out a virtual unknown to the mound Thursday night, it's not enough to counteract the fact they are simply the much better team here.  Not only that, but they're hot and the Royals are most certainly not.  Look for the home team to break out its brooms tonight and finish off the sweep.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1.  Cardinals Hot - St. Louis owns the best record in baseball and has won seven of its last eight.  They are averaging roughly six runs per game during this time.  I see them jumping all over Kansas City starter Jeremy Guthrie, who has a 0-3 record and 7.92 ERA his last three starts. His last start saw the Royals get shut out 7-0 as Guthrie allowed seven runs, six earned.  It was the third straight start he'd allowed at least five runs.
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2.  Royals Struggling - Kansas City has now lost eight in a row and 12 of its last 13.  They are arguably the coldest team in baseball right now, outside of the Miami Marlins, who perhaps hold that spot in perpetuity.  Scoring three runs yesterday actually has to be termed as a moderate achievement.  That's because they've only scored more than that in three of their last 13 games! They are averaging just 2 runs/game during the 8-game slide.   This is not a team you want to be on right now.
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3. X-Factor - This is clearly Michael Wacha, who makes his big league debut.  He is the top pitching prospect in the entire Cardinals organization. At Triple-A Memphis, he is leading the Pacific Coast League with a 2.05 ERA and is 4-0 in his nine starts.  He looked great in Spring Training as well by all accounts.

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Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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White Sox vs. CubsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CubsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cubs have taken two games from the White Sox so far this week & it likely would have been three (led 2-0 early on Tues) had it not been for a rainout.  I took them yesterday & they won 9-3 as Dioner Navarro hit three home runs.  But it's been the Cubbies' pitching that has carried them so far & it will rule the day again Thursday. Take the Cubs this afternoon.....
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As I discussed yesterday, the White Sox are a light-hitting team.  They are last in the American League in runs scored and at the bottom in team batting average. They are down to about three runs per game over the last seven days.  With the Cubs already having scored 16 runs in the two "official" games of this series, I just don't see how the gang from the Southside can keep up.
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Cubs starter Travis Wood had opened 2013 by matching a club record w/ 9 consecutive quality starts.  His last start did not go as well as the Reds tagged him for nine runs.  But against the White Sox struggling lineup, look for him to get back on track. With all the momentum, the home team rolls to a sweep today.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee vs. MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers have lost five in a row, and each of the first three games of this series versus the Twins. They play the final game in Minnesota tonight, and it will be Kyle Lohse on the hill looking to help Milwaukee avoid a sweep.
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Lohse (1-5, 3.76 ERA) is coming off a loss to his former team, allowing four runs on eight hits over six innings. Prior to that though, he had pitched quite well going up against lesser competition.
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Lohse was 16-3 last season in St. Louis, but he's only managed to win one game with the Brewers so far. He's still a very capable pitcher, and probably deserves better. He should have an excellent opportunity to get his second "W" of the season tonight.
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The Twins will send P.J. Walters to the mound for just the second time this season. Walters wasn't bad in his season debut, allowing a pair of runs on eight hits over six innings in a win over Detroit. He's 5-5 with a 6.22 ERA in his career, and he's struggled at home, going 0-4 with a 7.27 ERA at Target Field.
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These two teams are pretty close when it comes to offensive talent, but the Brewers should have a distinct advantage with an experienced starting pitcher on the mound tonight.

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JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie is the Under in the Boston-Philadelphia contest.

These teams are wrapping up their four game set, and they are also looking for Under #3 in a row if Franklin Morales and Jonathan Pettibone do their job.

Morales will be making his first start of the season after back and pectoral problems kept him sidelined for the first two months of the season. I expect the Phillies to have a tough time getting a read on him, as Philadelphia's last look at the southpaw came back in 2007 when Morales was with the Colorado Rockies.

Philly counters with the impressive Jonathan Pettibone who is 3-0 in his 7 starts this season for the Phillies, and 5 of those 7 starts have ended up staying Under the total. Pettibone's season ERA is a respectable 3.21.

The Red Sox have held Under in 6 of their last 8 interleague road affairs, and I see them holding Under again tonight.

1* BOSTON-PHILADELPHIA UNDER

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CHRIS JORDAN

In one of the funnest rivalries in sports, I'm turning to the battle of Windy City for today's Interleague clash on the north side of Chicago, and taking the Cubbies over the White Sox in this four-game finale. Surprisingly, the baby bears have come alive against their crosstown rivals to win the first three games, and today i like them to finish off the sweep.

I'm not going to insist on listing pitchers in this one, but I do think Cubbies starter Travis Wood will be stellar after his worst outing of the season. After all, if there was any game to do so, it would be during this series, in which we'll see the Cubs claim the Crosstown Cup for the first time.

And remember, before his last start, Wood (4-3, 2.73 ERA) was the first Cubs pitcher to open the season with nine consecutive quality starts in more than 100 years. I think he has a great chance thanks to the offense we've seen, as the Cubbies have outscored the White Sox 16-3 in the first two of four meetings between the teams (there was a rainout on Tuesday).

The Sox have lost three straight with a suitcase in hand, and will continue their struggle today. Take the Cubbies in this one, laying a cheap price.

2* CHICAGO CUBS

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CRAIG DAVIS

Free play of the day on the Atlanta Braves to wipe the floor with the Toronto Blue Jays.

This one is pretty easy.

R.A. Dickey, dominant last year in the National League, has been on a massive roller coaster ride in the American League this year and today I don't see that being any different.

You might be wondering why I like a National League team against Dickey today, especially considering the fact he won the Cy Young by dominating National League opponents a year ago.

Well, only a few teams gave Dickey problems last season, but at the top of that list was the Atlanta Braves. The Braves were not only good against Dickey last year, but in 10 starts they've forced him into a 2-5 record and a 5.15 ERA.

Lefty Mike Minor takes the hill for the Braves, and he's had one of the best months of May of any pitcher in the big leagues. Minor is 6-2 with a 2.47 ERA for the season, but in May he's 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA and the Braves have won four of his five starts.

Versus Toronto he has only one career start, but it was a good one. 7 innings pitched, one earned run and a team win for the Braves.

Put is all together and the Braves win this one by four. Take Atlanta as your free play of the day.

2* ATLANTA -1.5

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Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A's / Giants Over 7.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This number opened at 8 and has quickly moved downward to where it is now. I certainly understand why since Zito has been a Monster here at home. But he was not as much a Monster in his last start here and the Lefty has not been putting up good numbers over his last 3 pitched. His work verses his former team has been very iffy owning an ERA of Over 7 in six starts verses this Athletics. The A's have been frightening to lefthanded starters all year averaging well over 5 Runs Per 9 and more near 5.5 over their last 10 played. This park has been good for SF as well offensively with just Under 5 per 9 scored as well. Griffin is certainly capable but his best work has been back in Oakland. His last 23 innings on the road has produced 14 runs for his opponents. We do have a better than average weather pattern for this contest and the fact is, OVER is always more likely during a day contest here. That makes 7.5 a Bargain and I am playing it for 1%.

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Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jays saw their "over streak" come to an end yesterday, earning a 3-0 victory. I won't be surprised if we see another relatively well-pitched affair here.
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Minor is in outstanding form. Last time out, he tossed 7 1/3 shutout innings, en route to a 6-0 win. He allowed just three hits, striking out 10. Including that gem, Minor has a 1.35 ERA his last three starts.
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For the season, Minor is 6-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.929 WHIP. At home, those numbers dip to a stellar 2.39 and 0.684. Not surprisingly, three of his four starts here have stayed below the number.
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Minor made only one start vs. the Jays. That 6/21/11 game finished with a final score of 5-1. Minor struck out eight in seven innings, allowing just one run.
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Admittedly, Dickey hasn't pitched too well at Toronto. He's got a respectable 3.55 ERA in four road starts though, three of which finished beneath the total.
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With yesterday's result, six of Toronto's last seven (and nine of 11) visits here have finished below the number. Consider the Under 7.5 runs.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, May 30

Jimmy Boyd

Pacers/Heat Under 185½

In their only blowout win over the Pacers the Heat dominated defensively. It’s obvious that Indiana has found a way to slow down Miami’s stout offense but it is the Miami defense that will make the difference in controlling the pace of this game. Indiana has held opponents to 91.8 points per game on the road this season, a feat that is 2nd best in the NBA. Offensively they have struggled scoring only 91 points per game and they are facing a Miami defense that held them to 39.7% shooting on May 26th.

This matchup falls into a system to play the under in a playoff series that is tied. This kind of logic makes perfect sense. You can never guarantee a good shooting night so if you want to win games you have to step up defensively. In a tied playoff series both teams are fighting for that crucial win to give them the advantage. This system is 88-56 (61%) to the under over the last 5 seasons. Expect to see both teams fighting a little harder on the defensive end of the court tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, May 30

Dave Price

Cleveland Indians +112

The Tribe is showing value in the home underdog role considering it has won 8 straight at home against the Reds. Cincy scheduled starter Homer Bailey hasn't been as sharp on the road where the Reds have lost 5 of his last 6 starts. He's also has his share of struggles against the Indians. The Reds have lost his last 3 starts against the Indians, and he has an ERA of 5.28 in 6 career starts against them. Cleveland is 3-0 in Scott Kazmir's home starts. He was shaky in one of these but sizzled in the other 2. We'll take the Tribe at a nice price.

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