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NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 30

NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 30

INDIANA (59 - 38) at MIAMI (76 - 19) - 5/30/2013, 8:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 53-42 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 91-77 ATS (+6.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs this season.
INDIANA is 53-44 ATS (+4.6 Units) in all games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 11-9 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 12-8 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
13 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Indiana is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Miami   
Miami is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Miami is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games

Indiana at Miami
Indiana: 12-4 Under away off a home win
Miami: 0-10 ATS at home off BB road games

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 30

Pacers at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-7.5, 185)

Series is tied 2-2.

The Indiana Pacers made the necessary adjustments on the interior to keep LeBron James out of the paint and ended up evening the Eastern Conference finals at two games apiece. It will be the Miami Heat’s turn to make adjustments when they host Game 5 Thursday. After getting torched in the post by James and letting role players like Udonis Haslem and Chris Andersen beat them in Game 3, the Pacers tightened things in Game 4.

Roy Hibbert and David West were quick to help on James, who did not get a chance to settle into the paint and ended up fouling out with under a minute left and the Heat trailing Tuesday. The superstar was called for his fifth foul in the paint with 1:30 left and was then caught slightly moving on a screen 34 seconds later. “I didn‘t believe it was an offensive foul,” James said. “I was going to set a screen and I feel like I was stationary, and (Dwyane Wade) rejected the pick and roll and Lance (Stephenson) actually ran into me.” Indiana did not allow Miami to score the rest of the way.

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana was outscored in the paint in Game 3 but built up a 50-32 advantage in that area in Game 4 while outrebounding the Heat 49-30. Roy Hibbert led the way with 23 points and 12 rebounds while anchoring the defense on the interior. “Not one guy in that locker room didn’t believe we were going to win this game,” Hibbert told reporters. “We showed fortitude and we picked each other up.” Stephenson took over some of the defensive responsibilities on James and added 20 points while attacking the paint. The Pacers let a nine-point lead slip away in the fourth quarter but recovered to control the final minutes. “We’ve shown a great deal of resolve all year,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel said. “This is the first time we’ve faced adversity this playoff season. Our guys rose to the challenge to start the game, and then when Miami came and took the lead, they rose to the challenge again.”

ABOUT THE HEAT: Indiana did exactly what it needed to do to beat Miami by controlling the interior and simply out-muscling the Heat in Game 4. James got little help from his supporting cast, as Wade looked hampered by his knee injury and Chris Bosh struggled to 1-for-6 from the floor. “In the playoffs, on the road, you’re up by three, handful of minutes to go,” Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said. “Again, the way we are, we pride ourselves in closing out games, and we weren’t able to do it.” Wade was called for traveling in the final minute after James had fouled out and Bosh missed a 3-point attempt as the shot clock was winding down with the Heat up by two points and less than four minutes remaining. The Pacers got the rebound, tied it on the next possession and never looked back.


* Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
* Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 overall.
* Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.


1. The Heat have totaled 11 turnovers in the last two games.

2. Hibbert has recorded at least 20 points and 10 rebounds five times in the playoffs. He reached those marks seven times total in the regular season.

3. Miami went 37-4 at home during the regular season but has suffered two of its three playoff losses in its own building.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 30

Game 5 - Pacers at Heat
By Kevin Rogers

The Spurs are waiting patiently for the winner of the Eastern Conference Finals, as the Heat and Pacers look for two more victories to advance to the NBA Finals. Miami and Indiana are knotted up at 2-2 following a home triumph by the Pacers on Tuesday night, but it didn't come without drama.

In the definition of a see-saw affair, the Pacers jumped out of the gate to an 11-0 advantage, but the Heat eventually grabbed the lead with three minutes remaining in the first quarter. Indiana held the advantage after the first quarter (26-22) and at halftime (48-47), while rebounding from a poor defensive effort in the first half of Game 3 in which the Pacers yielded 70 points.

Miami used a 13-6 run to start the third quarter to take their biggest lead of the game at 60-54, but the Heat cooled off by scoring just 10 points in the final 7:30 minutes of the quarter. Roy Hibbert is turning into one of the more effective centers in the league with his performance in this series, capped off by a 23-point, 12-rebound effort in Game 4. The Pacers held off the Heat in the end to come out with a 99-92 triumph as three-point underdogs, the third cover by Indiana in this series.

LeBron James fouled out for the first time this season, including a questionable illegal screen in the final minute of regulation. The league's MVP paced Miami with 24 points, but the Heat shot just 39% from the field, including 6-of-21 from Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade combined. The Heat needs to improve their rebounding moving forward, as Indiana pulled down 49 boards in Game 4 compared to just 30 for Miami.

Since 2010, this is the 19th time in the playoffs that a series is tied at 2-2. However, we'll remove two examples from the NBA Finals as those Game 5's occurred in the same venue as Game 4 due to the 2-3-2 format. The home club has seen plenty of success by posting an 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS record in this stretch after splitting the first four games of a series.

From a totals perspective,'s Chris David breaks it down, "The 'over' has now gone 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between the Pacers and Heat, which includes a perfect 4-0 mark in this series. I don't like to play the due factor, but if you bet totals on pace, then you should lean 'under' in Game 5. It's next to impossible to handicap free throw attempts and if both teams shoot 60-plus, then you're likely to see the game go 'over' again. I don't expect that to happen again, which is why I would lean 'under' here."

With the Heat returning home, David says to expect their offense to bounce back, "For Game 5, I'm going to look at the team totals, in particular Miami's number. Most shops have the Heat's total listed at 96 and I believe that number could be eclipsed. Miami's offense is arguably the most explosive in the NBA and we've seen the offense bounce back in every game after a poor shooting performance during this year's playoff run. In Game 4, they shot 39 percent, which is well below their average and they still put up 92. If the Heat ever shoots 50 percent, which is really possible, they'll drop 100-plus points easily. Also, if you believe in déjà vu, it's hard to ignore that Miami put up 115 points on Indiana in Game 5 at home during last year's Eastern Conference semifinals when the series was tied 2-2."

Erik Spoelstra's club owns a dreadful 2-5 home ATS record in the postseason, but the Heat failed to cover twice as a favorite of at least 12 points. However, Miami has won and cashed in seven straight games dating back to January coming off a loss. Indiana has alternated wins and losses in each of its last seven games, while putting together a 5-2 ATS record in this stretch.

The Heat is listed as 7½-point favorites tonight, while the total sits at 185. The game can be seen nationally on TNT as things tip off at 8:30 PM EST from the American Airlines Arena.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 30

2013 NBA Playoffs

Miami scored 103-114 points in its two wins, 93-92 in its two losses to Indiana this series; Indiana is retrieving 39.9% of its missed shots so far in series- they're hurting Miami on offensive boards, they've got to avoid turnovers to at least get shots so they can rebound them. Over is 7-1 in this round of playoffs so far; seven of last eight Miami games went over total, as did last six Heat-Pacer games. Heat is just 2-5 vs spread so far in playoffs as a home favorite; Pacers covered both road games in series, after going 2-4 as a road underdog in first six road playoff games. Pacer G Stevenson is 13-27 in Pacer wins, 4-20 in their losses this series.

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