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NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, May 28

NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, May 28

MIAMI (76 - 18) at INDIANA (58 - 38) - 5/28/2013, 8:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 52-44 ATS (+3.6 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
MIAMI is 53-41 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 91-76 ATS (+7.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games this season.
MIAMI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs this season.
MIAMI is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 10-9 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 12-7 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
12 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Miami is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Indiana   
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

Miami at Indiana
Miami: 10-1 ATS off 3+ Overs
Indiana: 24-40 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, May 28

Heat at Pacers: What Bettors Need to Know

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (2, 184.5)

Heat lead best-of-seven series 2-1.

The Indiana Pacers have had their invincibility at home pierced and will now have to work to avoid heading back out onto the road down 3-1 in the Eastern Conference finals. The Pacers will try to even things up at 2-2 when they host the Miami Heat in Game 4 on Tuesday. The Heat found a way to match Indiana’s intensity on the inside en route to a dominating Game 3 performance, and LeBron James got help from the supporting cast.

James made an effort to post up Paul George early and often in Game 3, which opened up baseline jumpers for Udonis Haslem and cleared the perimeter for other shooters. “I made a conscious effort to get down in the post tonight, to put pressure on their defense” James said. “The coaching staff wanted me to be down there tonight, and my teammates allowed me to do that.” The Heat ended up outscoring the Pacers 56-32 in the paint, an area Indiana had controlled in the first two games. The Pacers, who led the NBA in field goal percentage defense in the regular season, allowed Miami to shoot 62.8 percent in the first half to fall into a big hole.

ABOUT THE HEAT: James displayed an ability to spin toward the baseline in the post and throw left-handed bank shots off the glass, a move Indiana’s George had no chance of stopping. Haslem had totaled three points in the first two games of the series but got confident early and ended up with 17 points on 8-of-9 shooting. “He’s the heartbeat of this team,” James said of Haslem, who serves as co-captain of the squad along with Dwyane Wade. Miami also did a much better job of hanging onto the ball in Game 3. The Heat committed only one turnover while piling up a franchise playoff-record 70 points in the first half, and finished the game with only five miscues to set another franchise postseason record.

ABOUT THE PACERS: The 114-96 setback matched the largest home defeat of the season for Indiana, which had won its six previous home playoff games. The Pacers were able to match the Heat’s scoring pace early but began to fall off in the second quarter without stops and turnovers to get them extra possessions. Indiana generally does not use double teams on defense but Roy Hibbert suggested James’ play might inspire them to switch tactics. “(James) was in the post doing a lot of work, and I think we have to do a better job of helping (George) out,” Hibbert said. “LeBron can’t get five or six dribbles to make a post move.” The lack of a defensive effort was what Pacers coach Frank Vogel dwelled on after the game. “If you’re not perfect guarding them,” Vogel said, “they’ll do what they did to us tonight.”


* Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Heat are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.


1. Heat F Chris Andersen is 15-for-15 from the field over the last four games.

2. Indiana G Lance Stephenson had a series-high 20 rebounds through the first two games but pulled down only one in Game 3.

3. Miami is 5-0 on the road in the postseason and has not fallen away from home since March 27 at Chicago.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, May 28

2013 NBA Playoffs

Miami had 70 points at halftime in Game 3, with only one turnover, as adjustments Spoelstra made after Game 2 loss (namely posting Lebron) were unstoppable. Fully expect Pacers to come out in zone of some kind to make James give up the ball. If Haslem goes 8-9 from floor, Heat ain't losing, but Indiana has to make him take more shots, they can't let James destroy their defense inside. Over is 6-1 in this round of playoffs so far; six of last seven Miami games went over total, as did last five Heat-Pacer games. Indiana covered six of its last seven home games, but will need its best effort to even series here.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, May 28

Game 4 - Heat at Pacers
By Chris David

Bettors chasing with Miami on Sunday night were rewarded heavily as the Heat captured a 114-96 victory over Indiana in Game 3 as two-point favorites. Miami built a 14-point (70-56) lead after two quarters and some pundits believe it was the best half of basketball they ever played. The Heat shot 63 percent in the first-half and only had one turnover as they posted a franchise playoff record for points. The club got a huge boost from Udonis Haslem, who finished 17 points on 8-of-9 shooting. Prior to this performance, Haslem had a combined three points in the first two games of the series.

Including Haslem, all five starters had double figures for the Heat. LeBron James led all scorers with 22 points and Dwyane Wade finished with 18 points, eight assists and four rebounds.

Miami’s win and cover improved its road playoff record to 5-0 both straight up and against the spread. Even more impressive, the Heat have won all five games by double digits. Should we be surprised? Including the postseason, Miami has won 23 of its last 24 on the road and the five consecutive double-digit margins on the road is now a NBA playoff record.

Another key factor that helped Miami’s blowout win was its free throw shooting. The team connected on 24-of-28 (86%) in Game 3, compared to a combined 67 percent (34-of-51) in the first two installments. 

Just like bettors were starting to give the Pacers a shot after the first two games, the pendulum has swung back to the Heat after Game 3’s outcome, which seems very premature. If you watched the ESPN analysts last night, San Antonio is already gearing up for Miami. Last time I checked the series is 2-1.

Oddsmakers opened Miami as a two-point favorite and the number has jumped up to 2½ points and will probably close at three tonight. 

Sunday’s loss was the first for the Pacers in the playoffs and the 18-point deficit matched their worst home setback during the regular season. Truth be told, if a team shoots nearly 55 percent from the field and 86 percent from the free throw line, you’re more than likely going to get run.

Offensively, Indiana played a good first half (56 points) but it couldn’t match points with Miami in the final two quarters. David West led the Pacers with 21 points and 10 rebounds, while Roy Hibbert posted another double-double (20 points, 17 rebounds). Paul George was beat up defensively by LeBron and it affected him on offense. The All-Star was 3-of-10 from the field, but he did have eight assists.

As mentioned above, everybody above is already putting Miami in the NBA Finals. Personally, I believe the team should earn their third consecutive trip to the finals but backing the public perception hasn’t been a sound investment in the playoffs. Just ask the experts who expected Memphis to beat San Antonio, right?

If you’re leaning to Indiana tonight, this little nugget from handicapper Kevin Rogers might solidify your decision. He explained, “Indiana is 15-2 straight up at home off a loss and the two losses came to Brooklyn and Philadelphia. The loss to the Nets came in overtime, while the setback to the 76ers was on the last day of the regular season. West, Hibbert and George sat out that contest and Philadelphia actually stepped up in head coach Doug Collins last game.”

If you’ve been playing totals in the conference finals, you’re well aware that the ‘over’ was on a 6-0 run prior to last night’s ‘under’ ticket in Game 4 between San Antonio and Memphis. Will bettors see another ‘under’ tonight?

Rogers answered, “All three meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, but Game 3's was never in doubt.  Chances are, Miami will not score 70 points in a half again in this series, much less the rest of the postseason.  Indiana shot 6-of-7 from three-point range through nearly the first 28 minutes in Game 3, which also won't keep up moving forward.  It's clear that the Miami bench isn't a factor, for the exception of Chris Andersen. “

Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has basically used four players off his bench, including Andersen. The “Birdman” has been huge and he’s certainly picked up the lack of production from others. Ray Allen (16), Shane Battier (10) and Norris Cole (10) have combined for 36 points in three games for the Heat, well below their averages.

If that trio ever gets going, Miami might be able to surpass the 114 points they put up in Game 3. Based on season trends, Rogers doesn’t believe that will happen in Game 4.

He explained, “Since April 1, the Pacers have allowed over 100 points seven times.  In the first six instances after giving up triple-digits, Indiana allowed 97, 94, 90, 90, 83, and 71 points in the following contest.  The 'under' shouldn't be played just because of due factor, but the two teams received good fortune in the first two games and a sizzling shooting night in Game 3.”

The first three games saw the total range from 181 to 182. After Sunday’s high-scoring affair, oddsmakers opened Game 4’s total at 185, which seems inflated. Most shops have dropped the number to 184 ½. Including this series, the ‘over’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the pair.

TNT will provide national coverage at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Game 5 will be played at the same time on Thursday from American Airlines Arena in Miami. If the Heat win the next two games in this series, they’ll meet the Spurs in the NBA Finals, which will begin on Thursday June 6 from Miami.

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