MLB Betting News and Notes
MLB Betting News and Notes
The Best Bets in the Bigs
Every week we take a look at the hottest and coldest teams as well as the best over and under bets in major league baseball.
For the week of April 29-May 5.
Hot team: Detroit Tigers
Last week: 6-1
Upcoming schedule: at Nationals, vs. Indians
Skinny: The Tigers outscored the opposition last week 49-18.
Cold team: Houston Astros
Last week: 1-6
Upcoming schedule: vs. Angels, vs. Rangers
Skinny: The Astros averaged 2.7 runs scored per game last week, below the team's average of 3.97 per game.
Over team: Colorado Rockies
Last week: 6-0 over/under
Season: 18-12-1 over/under
Upcoming schedule: vs. Yankees, at Cardinals
Skinny: Colorado has the third-highest scoring team in baseball (5.29 runs per game) and are 20th in baseball in quality starts (20).
Under team: Texas Rangers
Last week: 1-5 over/under
Upcoming schedule: at Cubs, at Brewers, at Astros
Skinny: The Rangers' pitching staff has a 3.02 ERA, best in baseball.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes
Strikeouts Soaring In MLB
By Doug Upstone
April was chilly month in several northern tier baseball cities and it was made draftier as players struck out a record 15.3 times per game.
As ESPN's Buster Olney points out: Over the 138-year history of Major League Baseball, the top eight months on that list - that is, the months with the highest average number of strikeouts per game - are the last eight months. You read that correctly. Not eight of the last 12 or eight of the last 10, but eight of the last eight. There were 14.91 strikeouts in September 2011, 14.63 in April 2012, 14.93 in May, 15.01 in June, 15.07 in July, 14.68 in August, the record 15.47 in September and now 15.29 in April 2013. Those are the eight highest monthly strikeout averages in baseball history.
There is no question as we stated previously, the number of pitchers that throw in the 90's is unprecedented. In addition, these hurlers are smarter and know how to work the strike zone up and down and inside to outside. They have better off-speed pitches which are designed to look like fastballs, yet are 10 MPH slower and have darting motion which miss bats.
Yet the managers and front office types give the hitters a free pass, saying the game has changed and you want your best hitters "up there hacking". Since the pitching improved and the batters started striking out with greater regularity, runs scored per team has dipped below 4.40 per game. Compare that number to 2009 and before, where the average was 4.61 or higher.
This dip in lower scoring baseball games is portrayed by oddsmakers. As mentioned, the weather has been far from ideal in many locations, but take away the Coors Field factor in which there has been totals of 9.5 or more 11 times, the other 29 teams have only played 11 games where the closing total was 9.5 or higher.
If baseball people and sabermetrics addicts really want change the game for the better, understand this, since last season (when we started keeping track), the first team to score five runs wins over 91 percent of the time.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes
Biggest Day/Night Differences in Baseball
With most teams having played roughly 30 games so far this season, we have a large enough sample size to start looking closer at split stats and how that info can help with our MLB bets.
Here's a look at four teams with a huge difference between their performance in day games and night games.
Successful day teams:
Kansas City Royals
10-4 day, 7-7 night
The Royals are a top team in the American League when it comes to playing day games. Kansas City's pitching staff has a 2.62 ERA in day games, good enough for second in the AL. Compare that with a 4.04 ERA in night games and the disparity is glaring.
Their batting average in day games is .279 against .256 at night. The light-hitting Royals have just 16 homers on the year and just six of those came with the sun shining.
The Royals' next early start will be versus the New York Yankees at home on May 12 with Ervin Santana slated to pitch against Hiroki Kuroda. The Yankees are currently 6-6 in day games.
10-6 day, 3-9 night
The Minnesota Twins are the worst night team in the majors at 3-9 but are a respectable 10-6 in day games.
Pitching has let the Twins down when they play under lights. Their 5.24 ERA in night games is third worst in the AL. They have fanned just 60 batters in their 13 night games. That's 44 less than anybody else.
Day games are a different story. Their ERA is 2.98 under the sun and they have walked just 35 batters in 133 innings pitched.
The Twins' next day game will be versus the Baltimore Orioles at home on May 12. The O's currently boast an 8-5 day record.
Successful night teams:
13-5 night, 6-8 day
The Rockies average roughly a full run more when they play under the lights. They have crossed the plate 107 times in 19 night games and they are third in the majors with a .284 batting average in night games.
Colorado opens a three-game series with the Chicago Cubs on May 13. All three games will be under the lights. The Cubbies are currently 7-8 in night games.
16-5 night, 4-7 day
There is no bigger disparity between night and day records then what the Texas Rangers have. The scorching heat in Arlington usually leads to a vastly superior night record for the Rangers.
The Rangers are batting .274 in night games compared to just .242 in their day games. Pitchers will also perform more comfortably in the evenings. The Rangers' ERA is 2.89 at night and almost a full run more at 3.87 during the day.
Texas is back in Arlington for a four-game series versus the Detroit Tigers on April 16.
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