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MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 27

MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 27

MLB Weather Report

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-125, 7.5)
Forecasts are calling for a 45 percent chance of showers.

Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals (-141, 8.5)

A 35 percent chance of rain is in the forecast for Kansas City.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners (-149, 7)

Winds will blow out to left field at 13 mph and there's a 30 percent chance of rain. The Mariners were 6-1 at home in 2012 when the wind blew out to left field.

MLB Baseball Weather Analyzer

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 27

Three Over Pitchers to Watch on Saturday

Here's a look at three struggling starters taking the mound Saturday who have a combined 11-1 over record this season in 12 starts.

Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (0-2, 11.08 ERA, 4-0 O/U)

In his last start, Porcello got rocked by the Angels, giving up nine earned runs in the first inning. His three other starts this year haven't been much better. Porcello hasn't pitched into the sixth inning yet this season, and has only struck out three batters. All of Porcello's totals have been high, not seeing one lower than eight yet. Kris Medlen is scheduled to be his opposite number for the Braves on Saturday. He has a 1-2 record and 2.16 ERA this season.

Dan Haren, Washington Nationals (1-3, 7.36 ERA, 3-1 O/U)

Haren is another pitcher that has been taxing for his team's bullpen. He has pitched into the sixth inning only once and has given up at least six hits in all of his starts. His most recent total was at 7.5, after seeing eight in his first three outings. Haren will go against Cincinnati's Mike Leake on Saturday. Leake has a 1-0 record in four starts and a 3.81 ERA.

Joe Blanton, Los Angeles Angels (0-3, 7.84 ERA, 4-0 O/U)

The Angels have the second worst team ERA in baseball, and Blanton is one of the main reasons why. He has given up at least four earned runs and seven hits in each of his four starts. The righty has made it to the seventh inning only once and has struck out an average of two batters per game. The total has been either eight or 8.5 in all of Blanton's starts. He will take the hill against Seattle's Felix Hernandez on Saturday, who has a 2-2 record with a 2.08 ERA.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 27

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers

When the Braves and Tigers play the second of this three game Interleague set with Medlen (1-2, 2.16 ERA) and Porcello (0-2, 11.08 ERA) on respective mounds expect Braves to avenge last night's 10-0 loss. Braves crossing 4.36 runs/game get to Porcello early and often. The Tiger hurler has yet put in a quality start getting smacked for 16 runs in three starts including 9 runs over 2/3 of an inning last outing vs Halos. Braves on a 4-2 stretch as road favorites after being blanked, 5-3 as a road favorite after a loss in game-one of a series and 5-1 off a loss handing the ball to Medlen get the job done.

Toronto Blue Jays at NY Yankees

When New York sends C.C. Sabathia (3-2, 3.34 ERA) to the mound to face the Toronto Blue Jays and J.A. Happ (2-1, 3.68 ERA) they'll have conditions on their side. The left-hander has owned Jays in his career recording a 13-4 mark in 18 starts (13-5 TSR) split between 6-2 TSR with Yankees, 7-3 TSR with Cleveland.

Colrado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

It'll be two port-side pitchers on respective mound when Arizona and Colorado meet in game three of this four game set. Toeing the rubber for D'Backs, lefty Wade Miley entering 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in four trips to the mound. Doing the honors for Colorado, struggling southpaw Jeff Francis (1-2, 8.44 ERA) off three consecutive non quality starts allowing 3 Jacks, 19 runs over 10 innings of work. Arizona 4-1 vs Rockies with Miley touching toe to rubber and D'Backs already 2-0 this season in these lefty vs lefty matchups it'll be a Rocky Road for Colorado as they fall to 7-20 L2Y's on the road vs a left-handed starter, 1-2 this season playing in cactus country, 5-11 last sixteen trips into Arizona. If that were not enough, road teams like Colorado who manage <7 hits, plate < 3 runs vs a left-handed starter have lost at a 78% clip (12-33) this season costing backers a whopping -$2069 at the betting window.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 27

MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers

If you’re the Washington Nationals, there couldn’t have been a better time for the road weary Cincinnati Reds to stroll into town. After starting the season off with an impressive 7-2 record -- validating many of the expert opinions that they are the team to beat in the National League, the Nats hit the skids, losing nine of their next 12 games to fall one game below .500.

But then Cincinnati came to town. Even though the Reds took two of three when the two teams met April 5-7 in Cincinnati -- when the Nats were hot, the Reds came into Washington on Thursday with a five game road losing streak. The Nats won 8-1 behind an outstanding performance by Gio Gonzalez, who allowed only one hit -- Joey Votto’s fourth home run. They came back on Friday with Jordan Zimmermann, who tossed a complete game shutout, allowing only one hit.

Count ‘em: that’s two hits and one run in two games against a Reds offense that has scored the third most runs (115) in baseball. The two losses give the Reds seven straight road losses in a row, and take us into Saturday’s game.

If the Reds ever needed someone to beat up on, they're being handed a pitcher, Dan Haren (1-3, 7.36 ERA), on a silver platter. Haren has allowed 19 runs (15 earned) in 18 1/3 innings of work through four starts, continuing a trend from the last year-and-a-half that spilled over into the worst spring of his career this year. If there was ever a slump-buster for the Reds to break the funk, Haren is it. When the Reds met Haren on April 5, his Washington debut, they tagged him for six runs off of nine hits in four innings. The Reds went on to win 15-0.

Generally, we don’t like going against streaks, but the Reds’ seven-game road losing streak is broken up between an 8-2 home stand. We think this is a good spot for the Reds with Mike Leake taking the mound. The Reds have won his past two starts, while Leake has only allowed two runs in 14 innings over that span.

If it was Leake against anyone else on the Nats’ staff, it might be a pass, but the fact that it’s a pick ’em (-105) against Haren’s stuff -- that isn’t fooling anyone -- makes it a must play. Most of the Reds hitters have had success against Haren over the years, including SS Zack Cozart who took him deep twice in his only two at-bats against him during the 15-0 game.

Bucs bounce back?

After losing at St. Louis Friday night, the Pirates have now lost the first game of their last four series. In the previous three, they didn’t lose another game in the series following the loss. We’ll see how that shapes up today when A.J. Burnett (1-2, 2.79) takes the mound for Pittsburgh against Jake Westbrook (1-1, 1.25 ERA).

Westbrook has allowed only three earned runs in three starts, but has walked 14 batters to only eight strikeouts. Despite the appearance of decent outings, the Cardinals have lost two of his three starts.

Burnett beat the Cardinals 5-0 on April 17, but the Pirates have only won two of his five starts despite pitching very well. We have this game listed as a pick ‘em, and because of the situation, we think taking the market price at +110 on the Pirates offers some value.

Part of the reason for believing there is value with the Pirates is because of how bad the Cardinals bullpen is. If it comes down to a close game late, the Pirates have a huge edge in the bullpen. Edward Mujica has been sensational in the Cardinals' closer role, but everyone else in the ‘pen has dropped the ball, or rather, served up the ball nicely to opponents. The Cards’ bullpen has the second worst ERA (5.20) in baseball and they’ve been tagged with four losses to no wins -- the worst bullpen record in the game.

What gives with the Rays number today?

Okay, let’s see here. We’ve got Matt Moore (4-0, 1.04 ERA) going against Gavin Floyd (0-3, 4.98 ERA) and the Rays are only a -125 favorite. Sound strange? Floyd pitched well in his last start against the Twins, but the Sox have still lost all four of his starts. We’ve got a situation where one pitcher is rolling at an all-time high during his young career against a veteran that is on a losing streak, along with being on the down-cycle of his career. This price should be closer to -140, so the recommendation is siding with the Rays.

Saturday Selections:

Reds (Leake) -105 at Nationals

Pirates (Burnett) +110 at Cardinals

Rays (Moore) -125 at White Sox

Season to date record: 41-27 (+1560)

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