Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals -105FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The St. Louis Cardinals have a big edge on the mound tonight and should be a heavier favorite over the Washington Nationals because of it. I'll take advantage and back them at an excellent price Monday.
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Shelby Miller is one of the best young starters in the game. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.873 WHIP with 18 strikeouts over 18 1/3 innings in three starts this season.
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Dan Haren is clearly washed up and struggling. He had a horrible 2012 campaign in Los Angeles, and it has carried over into 2013. Haren is 1-2 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.026 WHIP through three starts this season.
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The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. Haren is just 6-11 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. St. Louis is 4-0 in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Cardinals Monday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn -5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I believe this was the number for game one which was a trouncing by the Nets. There is supposedly some sort of zig zag effect where blowouts can actually reduce the spreads the next time around. If that is the case I say jump on all over this one. Zig or zag the Nets are at home, feeling good and their two best players played very well in the first game. Chicago looked uninspired and even though I think they are well coached without Derrick Rose they lack that next level player that can really make a difference.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

Brad DiamondFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St.Louis / Washington Over 7 ½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nationals (10-8) are on a 3-6 run over the last nine games, losing yesterday 2-0 to the Mets (Gee) up in New York to complete the series. Venturing home might do Washington some good, considering they are in a win/loss rotation the L7 times out. Still, the fly in the ointment is RHP Danny Haren (1-2, 8.10). The former Angel has been lights off for Washington as the veteran has been mocked in his last 13 2/3 innings of work carrying a 2.03 WHIP. In his last outing against the weak hitting Marlins who ranked #30 in runs scored (43) and #27 in team BA (.212), Haren (4 2/3, 7, 7, 3 <1-2>) gave up 7 earned runs in a short stint, costing the Nationals. It was thought by key executives that Danny Boy would be the catalyst for the pitching staff allowing for a 5 man rotation. What has plagued the hurler is his depreciating arm speed. Hitters now see the breaking pitches more clearly, since the hard stuff has lost velocity.
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The Cardinals (10-8) are on a 9 games road trip losing last night to the improved Kyle Kendrick of Philadelphia splitting out the four-game set. In 2013 the staff of St. Louis has thrown four shutouts, notably in series that feature three or more games. With TOP PITCHING PROSPECT RHP Shelby Miller (2-1, 1.96) hitting the bump, the Cardinals, despite the visitor status, seem to have an edge. Miller has not given up more than 2 earned runs in any start this season. He has 18 KK’s to-date and a magnificent 0.87 WHIP going into the opener of the series against Washington. The temperature for tonight is expected to be in the mid-40’s with damping conditions as the game progresses. This could hurt the 22-year older Miller who has a solid straight fast ball that is hard to see from his release point.
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The hidden factors inside this encounter could be the Nats drop off on the defensive end of the stat sheet as they committed three errors Sunday against New York. Washington leads the majors with 18 errors. Also, Danny Haren finished LY with a wing velocity of 88.5 mph, a drop-off from the L3 campaigns. The line opened as a slight chalk for Washington, but as the Cardinals loss to the Phillies came across the wire services the money at a number of places in Las Vegas moved to favor St. Louis. Washington is 9-2 as a puppy and 4-0 vs. a starter with under a 1.15 WHIP. STL has gone OVER the total in 6-of-7 against righty types, while the series has been HIGH lately marking at 12-3. With Haren showing major signs of wear in the early going and the Nats OVER in 11-of-13 this season, the value forecasts to be a HIGH scoring affair. Over the last ten years in this weather range the total has averaged 7.48 runs per game during April.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

Jeff AlexanderFOR  FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds -155FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds are 10-3 at home while the Cubs are 2-7 on the road. The Cubs have also lost 5 straight series openers and are 5-14 in Travis Wood's last 19 starts. The Reds have won 36 of the last 52 meetings, including 4 of the last 5 at home. Plus, the are 4-0 in Mike Leake's last 4 home starts versus the Cubs. Bet the Reds.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland A's +122FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The A's were just swept in Tampa Bay, but I like their chances of bouncing back against a Boston club they have defeated 8 consecutive times. The Red Sox have won each of southpaw Felix Doubront's first two starts, but he went 0-2 with a 12.86 ERA in a pair of starts against Oakland last season. His struggles against the A's shouldn't come as a big surprise since they absolutely mash left-handed pitching. Oakland is 4-0 against lefty starters this season, hitting .336 and scoring 8.5 runs per game against them. It is 7-0 in its last 7 games versus a left-handed starter dating back to last season. The A's have won each of A.J. Griffin's first three starts while he has posted a 2.25 ERA. The A's have also won his two starts against the Red Sox while he has posted a 2.08 ERA. Take the A's.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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BROOKLYN/Chicago over 183½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This was supposed to be a low scoring series and after Brooklyn’s 112 point breakout in Game One, many expect this game to revert to a typical low scoring Bulls game. We’re not buying that. The Nets had their way in game one by driving to the basket and creating many open looks and easy baskets. The Nets don’t have to make adjustments in game two and will attempt to play a similar style here. Why wouldn’t they? They buried the Bulls. It’s Chicago that is going to have to step up its defensive play and make adjustments on both ends and we’re not sure they are qualified to do so. Deron Williams is on fire and the Bulls don't have many on-ball defensive options capable of denying his drives while still honoring his potential to fill it up from outside. That's a hard balance for any defender to deny and the Bulls were doing more watching of Williams in game one than defending. Kirk Hinrich is not capable of keeping up with Williams and the Bulls other option, Nate Robinson can’t either. The Nets are one of the better offensive teams in the league and with Williams playing at such a high level, the offense is even better.
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Make no mistake, Chicago will try and slow this game down to a crawl but it could backfire against them. The Nets weakness is their poor rebounding and below average defense and that’s an area the Bulls will look to exploit. Additionally, the Bulls are in danger of falling behind by a wide margin again because of an offense that goes cold for stretches. Should they fall behind by 10 or 12 points in the second half, they can’t keep running a half-court offense and expect to win. There’s an old saying that says, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. The Nets will try for 112 points again and it’s the Bulls that are going to have to try and keep pace, sending this one over the total again.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Winnipeg -½ +148 over BUFFALOFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Sabres are out again. After another disappointing season and being officially eliminated from post-season play, one has to wonder where the motivation to show up for this game will come from. The only thing the Sabres are looking forward to is the end of the season. Buffalo pulled more no shows than any team in the NHL this year and there’s not a single reason for them to suddenly show up tonight.
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The Jets have scored four goals or more in six straight games. Over that span Winnipeg has picked up 11 out of a possible 12 points. They have a huge game tomorrow night in Washington and the look-ahead angle is a potential issue but we’re not going to let that deter us. This game is just as important and the Jets are very aware of that.    Back-to-back wins for the Jets and they will leapfrog over the Capitals for first place in the Southeast. They could also leapfrog over the Rangers for eighth overall in the East. The Jets have also defeated Buffalo in five straight games while outscoring the Sabres 15-5 over that stretch. The Jets have held Buffalo to one goal in each of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 win Feb. 19 and a 4-1 victory on April 9 of this year. Ondrej Pavelec is 5-0-1 with a 2.26 GAA over his last six starts and he has a 1.00 GAA while winning his last five starts versus Buffalo. A highly motivated Winnipeg team gets the call against a Sabres team in an unmotivated state of mind.
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DETROIT -½ +120 over PhoenixFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. It’s been 20 years since the Red Wings missed the playoffs and they’re not dead just yet. Detroit is three points behind Columbus for the final playoff spot but they have two games in hand on the Jackets and this is one of them. The Red Wings played a brilliant game on Saturday in Vancouver but picked up just one point because they were stymied by Cory Schneider. Anything close to that effort here will get us to the cashier’s booth and the Red Wings couldn’t have handpicked a better opponent.
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At the Joe, Detroit owns this guest. Phoenix has not won in Detroit in over 2½ years. The Coyotes also lost to Detroit in the playoffs in both matchups over the past three seasons. The Coyotes have lost three of their past four games and four of their last six. This will also be the Coyotes third straight road game and fifth road game over their past six games overall. Time is running out for Detroit but when the chips are down, the Red Wings know how to beat this foe under pressure.
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Chicago -101 over VANCOUVERFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that when the Vancouver Canucks win, it’s usually due to the outstanding goaltending of Corey Schneider. Schneider should win the league’s MVP hands down because without him the Canucks would not be in the playoffs and might even have fewer wins than Nashville. Rarely do the Canucks outplay the opposition. On Saturday against Detroit, it was another miracle win for the Canucks after Schneider stood on his head by stopping 33 of 34 shots. Vancouver had 14 shots the entire game. That was Vancouver’s second win over its past six games with the other one occurring against Nashville in a game the Canucks were outshot 38-24. That’s been the story the entire season for Vancouver; get badly outplayed and let Schneider steal another one. After goaltending the Canucks are about as average or below as any team in the National Hockey League including Florida, Tampa and Colorado. They are going to the playoffs for one reason and one reason only, that being the play of Schneider.
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The Blackhawks need no introductions. This is the NHL’s best team and the only thing that will prevent them from winning here is a lack of motivation with just four games remaining and the playoffs approaching quickly. At its very worst, Chicago should still beat these Canucks and if they don’t, not to worry because there is plenty of money to be made down the road in fading these imposters from Vancouver. Mark it down.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland +115 over BOSTONFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Red Sox are coming off a long day yesterday in which they were swept in a day/night double-header by the Royals. That came after a week of pure chaos in Boston, rendering the Red Sox to be a little spent right now. Felix Doubront has maintained an impressive strikeout rate this year (13K’s in 10 IP) but there are far more warning signs than positive signs in his profile. Doubront has an alarming 1.71 WHIP. His ball-in-play profile is even more disturbing with a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 28%/41%/31%. Pay close attention to that 41% line-drive rate, the MLB’s worst mark of any pitcher with at least 10 innings. Small sample size you say? Perhaps so but the long ball has killed him for two straight seasons and so has an abysmal .894 OPS with RISP and .815 OPS at Fenway. There's plenty of work to be done here for Doubront, as this guy isn’t close to being reliable. Against southpaws, the A’s are hitting an AL best .306.
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The Red Sox are off to a quick 12-6 start but they will not maintain that pace. Boston’s 162 strikeouts rank as the third worst mark in the majors behind Houston and Seattle. Its .253 team batting average does not equate to a .667 winning percentage. Additionally, the A’s have had much success against the Red Sox recently with eight straight wins while outscoring Boston 56-15 over that span. A. J. Griffin went 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA in 82 IP for the A’s last year. Griffin excelled in the upper minors and carried it over to the big leagues. Control is his best asset but he also misses bats reasonably and handles righties/lefties equally well. This year, Griffin is off to a 2-0 start with a 2.25 ERA. He owns an impressive 1.15 WHIP. Current Red Sox have five hits in 28 career AB’s versus Griffin for a BA of .179. Pitching matchup and situation both favor the A’s and the tag makes Oakland even more appealing.
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Chicago/CINCINNATI Over 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Travis Wood owns an impressive-looking 1.83 ERA but that ERA is not close to being supported by the underlying skills. Wood has 13K’s and 8 BB in 20 innings. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is 37%/21%/42%. Wood’s high fly-ball rate will continue to lead to issues with the long ball and that’s likely to come to fruition here. Wood has pitched all three of his games at pitcher friendly venues this season. He opened the year in Pittsburgh when the Pirates were seeing BB’s and followed that up with two home starts at Wrigley with the wind blowing in against Milwaukee and Texas. Muhammad Ali could pitch well in Chicago with the winds blowing in. Things change for Wood here. The Reds are crushing left-handed pitching this season (.877 OPS) and are now 4-1 at Great American against southpaws. Finally Wood was a member of the Reds in 2010-11. In 16 appearances at Great American (14 starts), Wood went 3-7 with a 5.65 ERA and a .300 BAA. The kid is not well suited for this park.
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In the remote chance that Wood throws a decent game, chances are Mike Leake will not. In 19 frames this year, Leake has a 4.26 ERA with a close xERA of 4.14. Leake struggled in 2012 due to the combination of a 25% line-drive rate and a 17% hr/f, despite recording his typically strong 49% groundball rate. Those numbers last year are right in line with his early numbers this year. In other words, it’s no mystery as to what Mike Leake brings to the table. He’s an average pitcher with average results. His 40%/27% quality start/disaster start from last season raises fears of risky results. Lastly, the Cubbies offense is not as bad as some think. This team is on the verge of scoring some runs. The Cubs have five guys in the lineup hitting over .280 (DeJesus .283, Castro .301, Soriano .284, Schierholtz .300 and W. Castillo .375). Anthony Rizzo is batting just .210 but has six jacks and 14 RBI’s. Chicago’s 20 jacks ranks them 12th in the majors. We’re not asking the Cubbies or Reds to go off for crooked numbers here. What we have is two very average pitchers at a hitter-friendly park and chances are one of these two teams is going to score six or more. The rest will take care of itself.
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Cleveland -104 over CHICAGO FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The White Sox have dropped three in a row. Against the Twins this past weekend they scored a total of four runs in two games and failed to do damage against Scott Diamond and Vance Worley. You might want to read that last sentence again. The White Sox couldn't get to either stiff, Scott Diamond or Vance Worley. Overall, the South Side ranks last in the AL in runs scored with 61 in 18 games. Dylan Axelrod has a WHIP of 1.57. Any WHIP over 1.50 is a disaster waiting to happen. In 15 IP, Axelrod has 7 walks and 9 K’s to go along with a 4.70 ERA. His xERA is 5.13. Axelrod is filling while John Danks is on the DL. The combination of Axelrod’s pitching and the White Sox offense is one of the worst in the business and the fact that it is favored over Justin Masterson and the Indians is bordering on ludicrous.
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After erupting for 19 runs on Saturday, the Tribe followed that up with a 5-4 win on Sunday to take the final two games at Houston. A couple of wins and plenty of bombs (Cleveland hit seven HR’s combined on Saturday and Sunday) does wonders for a teams’ psyche. Justin Masterson has gained 2.1 mph on his fastball from April 2012 to so far in April 2013, the biggest jump of any starter in the majors. Masterson has an elite 58% groundball rate, an elite strikeout rate (25 K’s in 27 innings), a low line-drive rate of 15% and a very good WHIP of 1.11. Masterson is flashing better skills than his 2011 breakout season and he’s also throwing more strikes. Walks are the only thing that has hurt this guy over the years but with just nine in 27 innings over four starts, he seems to have tackled that hurdle also. Masterson is a true bargain so get on this one early because the line isn’t likely to stay where it is.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

Ian CameronFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis at LA ClippersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: MemphisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I expect a strong bounce back effort from the Memphis Grizzlies tonight in Game 2 of their Western Conference Quarterfinal series against the Los Angeles Clippers. Memphis was not happy as a team about their 112-91 Game 1 loss. Throughout the regular season the Grizzlies boasted one of the best defenses in the NBA but were torched for 112 points on 55.4% shooting.
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Memphis was particularly disappointed with its performance on the glass; outrebounded 47-23. Marc Gasol voiced his displeasure about the Grizzlies effort on the boards in Game 1: “That’s not acceptable. Once we made a stop, they kept running in and getting offensive rebounds and second-chance points. We have to be better than that. The rebounds were the difference.” The 23 rebounds in Game 1 were the lowest the Grizzlies have ever had in a playoff game. Facing an 0-2 series hole, I expect a much better effort in the battle for loose balls and rebounds.
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The problems Memphis had in Game 1 are all correctable especially for a team who prides itself in rebounding and defense. It’s worth noting that Memphis is 5-2 SU and ATS this season after allowing 100+ points in their previous game. I think we’ll see a much different level of intensity and execution from the Grizzlies and at this price I’m willing to take the generous points.

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