MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 20

MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 20

MLB Weather Watch
By Covers.com

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Red (+210, -230, 8.5)
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out towards left field at 14 mph.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-155, +143, 7.5)
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s and cloudy conditions. Winds will blow out right field at 17 mph. The Mets were 6-1 when the wind blew out to right in 2012.

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (+165, -180, 7.5)
Winds will blow out to right field at 11 mph. Skies will be sunny and clear with temperatures in the low-60s.

Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox (n/a, n/a, n/a)
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and cloudy conditions. Winds will blow out towards Pesky’s Pole at 16 mph. Teams combined for an average of 2.7 home runs per game in 15 contests when the wind blew out to right at Fenway in 2012.

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (+170, -185, 9.5)
Forecasts are calling for sunny skies with temperatures in the mid-60s. Winds will blow in from right field at 12 mph.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles (+112, -121, n/a)
Winds will blow from left field to right field at 11 mph. Skies will be sunny and clear with temperatures in the high-50s.

MLB Baseball Weather Analyzer

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 20

Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
By Covers.com

Major league pitchers have enough starts under their belts to pick out which arms are streaking and slumping to start the season. Each day we’ll look at the hottest and coldest pitchers taking the mound.

Streaking


Paul Maholm, Atlanta Braves (3-0, 0.00 ERA)


Maholm hasn’t allowed a run through three starts and has racked up 20 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings. The Braves have been providing plenty of run support for the southpaw, outscoring the opposition 20-2 in his starts to date.

Ervin Santana, Kansas City Royals (1-1, 2.45 ERA)

The hard-throwing righty has gone eight innings in each of his last two starts, while only being touched up for two earned runs in the process. The Royals have played under the total in each of this three outings.

Slumping


Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays (1-0, 7.31 ERA)


The soft-tossing lefty earned his first win as a Blue Jay last time out but surrendered two earned runs on nine hits. The veteran southpaw carries a hefty 7.31 ERA and 1.75 WHIP into his next start against the Yankees.

Jarrod Parker, Oakland Athletics (0-2, 10.80)


Parker was lit up for eight earned runs in 3 1/3 innings last time out against the Tigers. The right-hander hasn't survived more than five innings in each of his three starts and has been touched up for 19 hits in just 11 2/3 innings pitched.

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Cliff Notes Saturday Baseball
By Dave Essler

Miami at Cincinnati: Haven't been right on the Reds for most of my life, but simply can't see them beating Miami, especially with a left handed pitcher (LeBlanc) on the mound. Because LeBlanc CAN be solid and the Reds haven't seen much of him, I could see taking the ever-dangerous Reds under. Otherwise, probably can only use the Reds in a parlay.

Washington at NY Mets: Gio opened the season with two gems, but against the Cubs and the White Sox, two teams that either cannot hit or were not hitting at the time. Then of course he gets manhandled by the Braves, and this is his first road start. This would be the Mets second game back after a tough road trip, so I might make a case for them. But, since Hefner had to throw an inning the other night and Washington has hit him, and we trust neither bullpen, we'll look hard at this over.

St. Louis at Philadelphia: Tough to fade Cliff Lee and his 0.68 WHIP in his first three starts, which is clearly why the Phillies are -150 or more and the only reason, IMO. Lynn has been terrible in two road starts this season, and maybe lost too much weight in the off season. I suspect that the Phillies are the right side here, but can't justify laying that price against a team with the potential to score like the Cardinals. Night game, chilly, and the wind blowing in, so I can only consider the under at this point. However, with the ineptness of the Cardinals pen, the Phillies may well get them all, the issue there is that when the home team is favored and "probably" going to win, you're losing an at bat in the ninth.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh: Tough also to fade Maholm and his 0.79 or so WHIP and shitload of ground ball outs in his three starts this season. Two of those starts were on the road as well. Historically the Pirates have not been great against LHP, and this season has been no exception. They are hitting .158 against LHP and are 0-4 in four starts against left handed starters.

Arizona at Colorado:
Cahill is a fade at home, and has typically been a play-on on the road. I thought perhaps he'd have issues at Coors, but he really doesn't have much exposure there at all. Almost regardless, if the D-backs do have a weakness it may be against LHS as they are 2-4 against them, as opposed to 7-2 against right handed starters. This will be De La Rosa's first start this season at Coors Field, and before his injury he really didn't pitch an worse there than anywhere else.

San Diego at San Francisco:
There is simply no chance of taking Lincecum against anyone at that number. He may well be 3-0 but his WHIP is 1.56 and his ERA is 5.63. But, of course the only two Padres with any real success (Headley and Quentin) won't be playing. Richard is bettable at home, and although his W/L record is reasonable against the Giants, his stats at AT & T aren't great. I can make a reasonable case for the over, if it looks like Timmy might be off, but the Giants pen at home has been much better than on the road, as you would expect.

Yankees at Toronto:
Kuroda over 111 pitches in the last two starts, which is an issue for me, especially if the Yankees bullpen is used much on Friday. And he has not pitched well at the Rogers Centre. If Buerhle had shown much of anything this would be an easy call to take the Jays, and at this point all I do know is that I cannot take the Yankees. I'd love for that total to go to 8.5 to take the over, but my guess is that it will not. Perhaps over 9 +100 because we're on the Jays and the Yankees are already kicking their ass in the first inning.

Seattle at Texas:
I do know that Maurer hasn't been very good, but neither have the Rangers, so to see Tepesch at -180 is a bit of an eyebrow raiser to me. Especially since Tepesch has thrown a bunch of pitches and just faces the Mariners. They (Seattle) did hit him well, but he's not the veteran that I'd expect to make the adjustments that quick. Haven't looked at the weather, but think ten runs might be doable.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 20

mlb odds picks betting lines pitching matchups red sox buchholz lincecum
MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

Lincecum still a Giant Question Mark

When looking at Tim Lincecum’s three starts this season – without looking at the results, you’d be trying to cut in line at the Vegas betting windows to ensure you didn’t lose any favorable price on his opponent. In his first start at Dodger Stadium, he allowed only two runs – none earned, but walked seven batters in five innings. He ended up winning the game 5-3, which remains his only win of the season.

But as we can tell now – and then, too, when runners were all over the place and the Dodgers couldn‘t score – the Dodgers’ lineup is pretty inept. They currently rank 31st in runs scored (41), only six more than the Marlins, an organization that seems to be the poster for baseball ineptitude.

In his last two games, things got even worse, but the good news for him was that the Giants bats came to the rescue. He allowed 10 combined earned runs in those two starts, but the Giants pounded the Rockies 9-6, and then the Cubs 10-7.

Sometimes luck can spur more confidence. We saw it last season with Barry Zito a couple of times where he got rocked, but the lineup behind him backed him up nightly. He then came up big when it counted most, in the playoffs, while supercharged with confidence.

Chances are that Lincecum may be feeling pretty good coming in, but the reality is that he doesn’t have his Cy Young pace on fastballs. He now has to try and be cute around the edges. And hitters know what he’s relegated to now and are prepared to wait it out until they get a fat one over the plate, like two Cubs did when they teed off on him his last time out.

The Padres have played well of late – winning three straight at Los Angeles, but fell to the Giants, 3-2, on Friday night. Clayton Richard is always a bargain at home, but he’s a different story on the road. However, he comes off of an outstanding start where he didn’t allow a run in six innings.

We think this game will go OVER the total and believe Lincecum will be a big part of the reason why. Because of Lincecum, taking the Padres and Richard at +155 also looks like a decent play.

Can’t put a price on emotions

We liked the Red Sox in Friday’s game with Clay Buchholz pitching when there was lots of anger in the air over the horrific events that occurred at the Boston Marathon, but there is definitely a completely different complexion that has occurred Friday night with most Americans. While still angry it happened there is a sense of being able to take a deep relaxing breath after finding the terrorists.

The joy and Patriotic pride shown on the Boston College campus captured by TV crews was a feeling that Americans were feeling within themselves. And that goes for the ballplayers participating in this game as well. You really can’t put a price factor on emotions into the number, because it can range in vastly different directions. Still, it’s hard to ignore 7-0 with Buchholz and Lester this season, as well as a live six game Sox winning streak.

Oakland OVER’s are piling up

The A’s have gone OVER the total in 14 of their 17 games this season while leading baseball with 99 runs scored. But you know that type of consistency can’t keep happening, as not only the totals will be adjusted and posted higher, but the hitting has eventually got to slow down. There’s no way the A’s can keep banging away a .463 slugging percentage or get on base 35 percent of the time.

However, we may not have to rely on the A’s bats all the time because every five days, Jarrod Parker (0-2, 10.80 ERA) takes the mound. Every one of Parker’s starts have gone OVER the total, and based on his last outing, that doesn’t look to be changing soon. In 3 1/3 innings of work against the Tigers, Parker gave up eight earned runs. He’s given up 14 runs in 11 2/3 innings between his three starts.

The price in Jeremy Hellickson (-120) came in a little higher than expected, but Parker is a good bet against until he proves that his poor spring hasn’t actually bled into the regular season. The bad news for bettors if Parker does continue sliding is that he could be sent down to Triple-A Sacramento to work some things out, and thus taking him out of the betting rotation. The play is on the Rays and OVER eight runs today.

Other games of interest:

* We like Paul Maholm and the Braves today just because of James McDonald’s implosion during his last start. Maholm hasn’t allowed an earned run yet while winning all three of his starts. Laying -140 is the highest to go on this one.

* We also like the Phillies’ Cliff Lee to take care of Lance Lynn and the Cardinals Saturday night, but he’s out of our price range at -145. Lee has been dominating while Lynn’s other two road starts resulted in lots of runners on base and high scoring affairs – both going OVER.

Saturday plays:

Braves (Maholm) -140 at Pirates

Padres (Richard) +155 at Giants

Padres/Giants OVER 7.5 (-110)

Rays (Hellickson) -120 vs. A’s

Rays/A’s OVER 8 (-110)

Season to date record: 32-18 (+1580)

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