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MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 19

MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 19

MLB Weather Watch

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Baltimore Orioles (+115, -125, 8.5)
A 90 percent chance of rain with thunderstorms in the forecast. Winds will blow out to left field at 11 mph.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-118, +109, 7.5)
The wind will blow out to center at 17 mph with a 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms in the forecast. The Phillies were 15-8 in 2012 at home when the wind blew out to center field.

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-127, +117, 7)
The wind will blow out to left field at 14 mph with a 90 percent chance of rain. The under went 10-5 at PNC Park in 2012 when the wind blew out to left field.

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds (+206, -225, 7.5)
A 100 percent chance of rain in the forecast and winds blowing out to left field at 14 mph.

Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox (+120, -130, 8.5)
The wind will blow out to center field at 18 mph. The Red Sox were 3-10 when the wind blew out to center field in 2012.

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets (-120, +111, 6.5)
The wind will blow out to center field at 13 mph.

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (+147, -160, 8)
The wind will blow out to left field at 15 mph. The White Sox were 5-1 in 2012 when the wind blew out to left field.

MLB Baseball Weather Analyzer

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 19

Friday's Streaking and Slumping MLB Starting Pitchers


Matt Harvey, New York Mets (3-0, 0.82 ERA)

Harvery showed potential in his ten starts for the Metropolitans last season starting late in July. He had a 2.73 ERA in 59 1/3 innings pitched and gave up more than two earned runs twice. Harvey has been even better in 2013, giving up only two earned runs and striking out 25 batters in three starts.

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies (2-0, 1.96 ERA)

Chacin made only 14 starts in 2012 after being sidelined with a pectoral muscle injury. He looks like a new man early in 2013, giving up four earned runs and 13 hits in three starts.


Vance Worley, Minnesota Twins (0-2, 10.50 ERA)

Worley's introduction to the American League has not been easy for the former Philadelphia starter. In his last start against the Mets, he was yanked in the second after giving up seven earned runs as the Twins lost 16-5.

Edison Volquez, San Diego Padres (0-3, 11.68)

Volquez has made it past the fourth inning only once in his three starts, and has given up 16 earned runs, walked 7 batters. The Padres have been whooped 11-2, 9-1 and 9-5, in his three starts, respectively.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 19

Cliff Notes - Friday Baseball
By Dave Essler

Atlanta at Pittsburgh: I do think Hudson is running on fumes, and love bet Wandy in most situations. Pirates may not be hitting super well right now, but far better against RHP. Against LHP their hitting .162. It could be tough to back Wandy with ten days off with the hamstring, but it's the Pirates or nothing. But, with the wind blowing out to left I reserve the right to change my mind, but doubt I will.

St. Louis at Philadelphia: It was well documented how bad of a bet Garcia was on the road last year, yet with the Cardinals bats going semi-silent in Pittsburgh, he's still favored over Halladay. That shows you how much disrespect Vegas has for him right now, and how they may be begging is to take a home dog. I was hoping not to see a potential 19 MPH wind out to left because I had an immediate lean to the under. However, perhaps the total will come out with that factored in (don't they always) and it'll be playable.

Fish at Reds: Wind out to left. Slowey hasn't been THAT bad and he has faced all decent hitting teams. However, two of them were at home in the big park. Great American is not big. Latos has pitched reasonably well, but I've always felt that he was the beneficiary of pitching in San Diego's big park. His numbers since coming to the Reds may well reflect that. There is simply no chance of laying -4000 or whatever it is, and my gut tells me this could be the parlay and RL killer of the day. If Thursday's game uses bullpen, and it might with Cingrani perhaps on a pitch count, I could waste a bullet on the RL or +220. The Reds have a habit of not showing up in these games.

Washington at Mets: Well then, two ways to look at this. Harvey a home dog? Or Strasburg only -125. If it weren't for the day off the Nationals have and the Mets are playing in Colorado today (and it's been a tough series) this would be an absolute no brainer to take the Mets. Now, we'll have to wait and see. I don't like the fact that the Mets are probably going to lose this game and use up bullpen innings at the same time.

Cubs at Brewers: Aha, Samardzija now due to the way he's been pitching and the Cubs beat the Rangers. Brewers handled the Giants this afternoon. I do like Estrada, but when he's got no movement (as is the case with all pitchers but he more than most for me) he can get lit up. That's a pretty low total for a Brewers game at home, which would seem to imply that this is a pitchers' duel. I'd love for this to go to 8 and perhaps take the under. Braun did go yard today, and does hit well against Samradzija, but he's about 1-18 this last week. More than likely decided by bullpens later rather than sooner. Perhaps a first five on one of these teams is the way to go.

Arizona at Colorado: I but surprised to see Chacin at -140, but Arizona is indeed flying out of New York and not getting to Denver til the wee hours of the morning, and of course the Rockies are teeing off on the Mets. And Kennedy has done nothing but give up flyball outs this season. Interesting that everyone but C-Gon has hit him, though. Chacin has been a freak show stat-wise but two of those games were against the Padres, which raises a bit of a red flag, perhaps. And of course he was manhandled in Coors Field last year. Weather not really a factor, and a bit surprised that total is 9.5. I may have to play the polygonic over.

San Diego at San Francisco: There is simply no chance of taking the Giants at -230 in a first game back when they've not been hitting, I DNC who is pitching for either team. I honestly think taking the Padres and the Fish RL's are are worst a split, if not both wins. Yes, Volquez has bee beaten around, but twice by the Rockies and once by the Mets when they were rolling. He's done well against the Giants.

Yankees at Jays: IF, and this is a big if, the Jays can be patient they will beat Pettite. Could look at this a couple of ways. Nothing wrong with getting the Yankees at even money, or that's a cheap price on Toronto at home. Not reall sure that the Yankees have the speed this year to play on the turf, and that is a big deal. For years Boston struggled when they were built like that. Speaking of Boston, I am throwing marbles on them to win the AL East and the Pennant. Yes, insane. But, in this division anything is possible, and quite frankly it's not at all unlike the Saints winning the Super Bowl after Katrina. That incident can galvanize a team and a city for a very long time. Now, I am not taking the Bruins to win the Stanley Cup, however I would probably make a sizable bet on them over the Penguins tomorrow.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 19

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee sweeping the defending champion Giants will be feeling pretty good about their chances when Chicago Cubs pay a visit to Miller Park on Friday. The Brewers have won fourteen of the past nineteen meetings and head into the contest having won fifteen of seventeen encounters at home vs Cubbies. Brew-Crew are in good hands in this one as they send Marco Estrada (1-0, 4.50 ERA) to the mound. The right hander in great form has turned in two consecutive quality starts including a victory over these same Chicago Cubs moving his mark to a perfect 3-0 vs Cubbies in four life-time starts (3-1 TSR). Brewers 8-2 at home with the hurler, 4-0 opening a series with the righty, 11-3 as a favorite of -$1.10 to -$1.50 are worth a second. Cubbies 1-4 opening a series this season, 4-10 on the road with Samardzijas (1-2, 275 ERA) touching toe to rubber adds fuel.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 19

MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers

LAS VEGAS -- On Friday night, we could be witnessing the beginning of a budding rivalry between Stephen Strasburg (1-2, 2.95 ERA) and Matt Harvey (3-0, 0.82 ERA). The two pitchers have the storylines behind them that remind us of the great pitching rivalries of the past: division rivals, power pitchers who rack up high strike out totals with low ERAs, and – perhaps most of all – the New York media squeezing every ounce of publicity out of every meeting between the two.

Strasburg, 24, has a head start on Harvey in the respect category. This is his fourth year in the league, and every time he goes to the mound, there is this aura surrounding him, and no one in the crowd or in TV land is surprised if he strikes out 16 batters or rolls into the seventh inning with a possible no-hitter.

Harvey, also 24, is still learning how to pitch, but his on-the-job training is a lot better than most expected. Most experts agreed he was going to very good eventually, but no one expected him to be this good this soon. Through three starts this season, he’s allowed only two runs in 22 innings while striking out 25.

The pressure of the New York media can ruin a kid before he gets a chance to shine, as huge expectations are placed upon rising stars by cynical columnists and popular sports talk radio shows that every fan in the five boroughs read and listen to. But Harvey has blossomed without the pressure of being the savior of a franchise. No one was expecting the Mets to do much of anything this season, and the team and fans have embraced the underdog role.

The Mets have lost three games in a row, putting them at 7-7, 1.5 games behind the second-place Nationals, but this weekend’s three-game set at Citi Field gives the Mets a chance to see how they stack up. Fortunately for them, they send their best out tonight in Harvey and look to send an early message that the "Amazins" might be a thorn in the side of the Nationals and Braves this season. To get Harvey completely focused for this game, the Mets sent him home before Thursday’s game at Colorado.

The Nationals got an early preview of Harvey last September, when the right-hander went five innings, allowing one run – a home run to Ryan Zimmerman. The Nationals won the game, 2-0, but in those five innings, Harvey struck out 10 Nats.

We think Harvey gets the best of Strasburg tonight in a low-scoring game. We’re not necessarily going against Strasburg because he's lost two games in a row, but rather, we’re siding with Harvey to come up large in what is his biggest moment in the majors to date. Strasburg is a -120 favorite with the total set at 6.5 runs. This may be the last time we’ll be getting plus-money with Harvey at home this season, or possibly the next 10 seasons, so we'll jump on the opportunity while we can.

Riding the hot Red Sox duo

Some of the easiest bets to make without batting an eye this season have been to take Boston's Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz every time they take the mound. After Lester’s performance last night in Cleveland, that simple method has gone 7-0 thus far.

Should the game game played (David Ortiz says it's been postponed; the city of Boston is on lockdown as authorities continue a manhunt for marathon bombing suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev), there’s a couple things going for Buchholz (3-0, 0.41 ERA) at home tonight vs. the Royals: in addition to winning his first three starts and allowing only one run, the Reds Sox are riding a six-game winning streak as they sit atop the AL East with an 11-4 record. The Royals’ James Shields (1-2, 3.43 ERA) threw a complete game his last outing, but still took a 3-2 loss against the Blue Jays.

Because of Shields’ past credentials, the price on the game isn’t above -140 (-135) and is therefore within our range.

Value rolling back towards the Angels?

The Angels, with a 4-10 record, are easily the most disappointing team of the season. While their rating has taken a dive over the first three weeks, at some point, the value on them is going to present the optimum time to start buying. Tonight may not be the night it starts, but if Anibal Sanchez (2-0, 1.42 ERA) and Tommy Hanson (1-1, 6.55 ERA) were starting against each other in the first week of the season, the Angels would be laying -115 at home instead getting +105 like they are tonight.

Sanchez has been outstanding thus far, allowing only three runs and striking out 21 in 19 innings. But – in addition to the value on the betting line – the Tigers’ four-game winning streak being snapped Thursday night at Seattle, with their ace Justin Verlander losing 2-0, makes us like the Angels even more. Had the Tigers won and came in with some momentum, this might not be a play.

The Angels’ lineup is too good not to snap out of its funk. One hitter in particular, Josh Hamilton, should be excited to face Sanchez. He’s 4-for-4 with two walks over his career against him.

Friday’s plays:

Mets (Harvey) +110 vs. Nationals

Mets/Nationals UNDER 6.5 (-115)

Red Sox (Buchholz) -135 vs. Royals

Angels (Hanson) +105 vs. Tigers

Season to date record: 30-17 (+1380)

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