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MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 16

MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 16

MLB Weather Watch

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians (+115, -130, 8.5)
Chances of thunderstorms are in the forecast, with a 70 percent chance of rain.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees (n/a, +125, 9)
Winds will blow out to left field at 16 mph. Temperatures will be in the high 50s. The under was 7-3 when the wind blew out to left field at Yankee Stadium in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+130, n/a, 8)
Thunderstorms are in the forecast, with a 75 percent chance of rain.

Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves (+175, -130, 7.5)
A slight chance of thunderstorms, with a 17 percent chance of rain.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds (n/a, -150, 8.5)
Thunderstorms are in the forecast in Cincinnati, with a 64 percent chance of rain.

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago Cubs (115, n/a, n/a)
Temperatures in the low 40s with a 31 percent chance of rain.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins (+120, -130, 8)
Temperatures in the low 40s at first pitch.

New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies (n/a, +130, 10.5)
A 50 percent chance of snow is in the forecast, with temperatures in the high 30s.

Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics (n/a, -200, 7.5)
Winds will blow in from left field at 12 mph, with temperatures in the mid-50s.

MLB Baseball Weather Analyzer

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 16

Cliff Notes -Tuesday Baseball
By Dave Essler

Still working like we do every day, and just sharing. I have a lot of thoughts but don't feel like sharing them. My father always said. It does seem like whenever our team needs a key hit (see Pirates) they can't get the job done, and when the other teams does (see Cardinals) they get the two-out hit (and lots of them). Or we get the potential rally killing double play. See Keppinger. See Kratz. With that in mind, I am not putting out plays on Tuesday even if these teams come back. We'll pass along our work in here, and trust that the teams will be more cooperative.

Since there's a fair amount of left handed starters, I will pass these along.

Texas has not hit a home run off a LHP yet this season.

Cleveland, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Oakland have scored the most runs off LHP. Last year almost all these teams were almost auto-fades against left handed starters. Two years ago for Atlanta. Adjustments.

The Phillies are hitting .141 against LHP. The Nationals are hitting .202.

The White Sox onlt have 25 AT BATS against left handed pitchers. The point-some teams have plenty of a sample size and some don't.

Texas at Cubs: Did I mention that Travis Wood throws left handed and that the Rangers hadn't hit one off a LHP yet. Clearly that would make me lean towards the under at night in what may be an inflated number due to the "Rangers" and "Wrigley". Berkman is 7-11 off of Wood. Ouch. Another reason the total might be high. Holland CAN get the ball up at times, but Texas' pen has been very good lately, and the Rangers' games on the road have been ONE over and five under. 

Kansas City at Atlanta: Wonder how the Royals fare when Guthrie has to bat. Both teams 8-10 in IL play last year. Guthrie's been throwing strikes. The White Sox couldn't hit him but the Twins sure could. Many of the Braves have seen him, and not so much w/Medlen so we certainly have to lean Braves and their bullpen to keep that train rolling.

Detroit at Seattle: First thing of note is that Fister goes back to the team that traded him to the Tigers. It'd be interesting to see Casper Wells get the game winning hit. That's one of the people he was traded for Fister threw a seven inning shutout at Safeco last year, so perhaps he got THAT out of his system. Harang making his first start of the season and he's NOT a groundball pitcher. He was able to get away with that type of pitching in San Diego and Anaheim, and perhaps last year in Seattle, but the fences have been moved in somewhat, and I have a bad feeling about the Mariners here. The good news is that Cabrerra is 2-15 off of him, the bad news is that Fielder owns him, and the Tigers as a team are hitting .316 over the last week.

Other early observations:

Wind blowing out and warm in Camden Yards. But, Arrieta hasn't give up a long ball yet, and is much tougher on RHH's and the Rays will stack it with switch hitters and lefties. Fausto already faced the Orioles and didn't fare well. I think he make's the adjustments and the Rays win this game.

Boston at Cleveland: I do wonder how that shit in Boston effects the Red Sox. If the game was over at 2:00 they were probably still all in the area. Fenway is in ear-shot of the Finish Line. Since the Indians are now one of the better hitting teams against LHP, I would head in that direction. However, it's Ubaldo and honestly, Boston should be positively effected, especially getting out of town, and build of the great ninth inning win. Lean Boston.

White Sox at Toronto: This is the game that goes way over, IMO. White Sox are dead-red fastball hitters and Axelrod hasn't been able to keep the ball down. 100+ pitches in a little over three innings last start. If he aim the ball or trys to be cute here, it looks like the Toronto bats are waking up, and second game back for them. Also wouldn't surprise me to see bullpens used a fair bit later, since both Floyd's gone in the 5th and Buerhle's pitch count is up.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 16

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves

Red-hot Braves (11-1, +$1079) winning nine straight after finishing the weekend sweep of the Nationals return to the diamond Tuesday, when they open a two-game inter-league set with the Kansas City Royals (7-5, +$205). Kris Medlen (1-1, 1.50 ERA) scheduled to take the hill for Atlanta and taking on Jeremy Guthrie (2-0, 3.55 ERA) sets up a great pitching matchup. The Braves have won 26 of Medlen's 29 starts since 2010 and the right-hander sports a spectacular 13-2 team-start-record in fifteen trips to the mound since moving from the bullpen last July. Medlen allowing 3 runs over 12 innings of work this season hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 10 frames. Guthrie notching his second win in two starts last time out hasn't lost in his last thirteen starts for Kansas City posting a 7-0 record with Royals a sparkling 12-1 over the span. The clubs last IL met was back in 2010 a series Braves swept in Atlanta which included a win w/Medlen taking the ball. Braves doing it with both the lumber crossing 5.17 runs/game and a pitching staff with a league best 1.82 ERA have been pegged anywhere from -$1.80 to -$2.00 favorites by the betting market with the total hovering around 7 runs.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 16

MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers

LAS VEGAS -- We normally don’t condone betting against a streak in baseball. In fact, it’s one of our major don’ts. But today we’re bargain hunting. We’re shopping at K-Mart for great prices, and the Royals’ Jamie Guthrie is our Blue Light Special.

On this occasion, we’re willing to go against the commandments of baseball betting for the sake of pure value, and the lure in this one is taking +170 or above against the red-hot Braves.

The Braves have won nine games in a row and are coming off an impressive sweep at the Washington Nationals, their biggest NL East rival. They made a major April statement, letting not only the Nationals know, but the entire National League, that the Braves mean business this season with their new brand of baseball.

They have baseball’s best record (11-1), the top pitching staff (1.82 ERA) and top home run hitter (Justin Upton, 7). One may think you’d have to be crazy to go against all that today, but we think the price is way over-inflated, which is forcing the play.

Kris Medlen (1-1, 1.50 ERA) takes the mound for the Braves, and while his numbers look good, we still don’t think he’s the same dominant pitcher from last season. The Braves won his final 12 starts of 2012 before he blew the wild-card game against the Cardinals. We think he’s closer to the pitcher that struggled with control in spring, allowing a .320 batting average and surrendering 19 runs in 23 2/3 innings of work.

In Medlen’s first start of the season, a 2-0 loss to the Phillies, he walked four and gave up two runs in five innings. His next outing was much better, a 3-2 win over the Marlins, where he gave up only one unearned run in seven innings, but he still walked more than he struck out. And let’s face it, the Marlins aren’t exactly the '27 Yankees. Their 23 runs scored are the lowest in baseball, 12 less than the next worst team. Everyone looks like Cy Young against Miami.

While we may be nitpicking a little bit with Medlen, the real reason to the like Royals today –beyond the large price – is Guthrie (2-0, 3.55 ERA). Like Medlen, Guthrie went on an impressive run to close out 2012, with the Royals winning 10 of his final 11 starts. He served up three home runs in his last start against the Twins, a 7-4 win, but we think he and the Royals bats will be up for the challenge today.

The Royals have hit only four home runs in their 12 games, but they’re manufacturing runs, which may be a better sign for such a young team. Best of all, the Royals are winning. They’re currently tied with the Tigers at 7-5 for the AL Central lead.

A Giant streak to ride

While we’re not riding with the Braves win streak, we are hopping on board the Barry Zito wagon today. In 14 innings of work between two starts, Zito (2-0, 0.00 ERA) has still yet to give up a run. If we add the final 14 games from the regular and postseason last year, that’s 16 straight games the Giants have won with Zito on the mound.

The team Zito will have to try to get by today is the Brewers, who have struggled to a 3-8 start. They’ve lost both of Wily Peralta’s (0-1, 4.50 ERA) starts, yet Zito, despite his recent credentials, is still only a -115 favorite. That's too good to pass up.

Batting practice in the Bronx

We’re not sure whether we like inter-league games in April, especially having as many as three series at once this early. But the D’Backs and Yankees always bring back fond memories of 2001, one of the most emotionally charged World Series ever played during a difficult time in our country.

We have small lean on the Yankees today behind Ivan Nova (0-1, 7.71) against Brandon McCarthy (0-1, 771 ERA). McCarthy has been rocked for 12 runs (10 earned) in his two starts.

The better play in this one might be OVER 8.5 total runs. The Yankees bypassed Nova’s last scheduled start during the rain outs in Cleveland last week to keep the other starters in their regular rotation, which should tell you how they fell about Nova’s stuff right now. In his only start, he gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings in an eventual 8-3 loss to the Tigers. It’s been 11 days of rest since his last start.

This should be an exciting game to watch, not only for the loads of runs expected on the field, but for the rendition of “God Bless America,” which will have even more meaning in light of the tragic events in Boston.

Tuesday’s plays:

Royals (Guthrie) +170 at Braves

Giants (Zito) -115 at Brewers

D’Backs/Yankees OVER 8.5 (-120)

Season to date record: 29-12 (+1960)

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