MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 13
MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 13
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Atlanta at Washington
Nationals and Braves continue their battle for top spot in the division when the two clubs square off in game two of this 3-game set in Washington. Braves defeating Nats 6-4 in the opener moving to a Major League Best 9-1 on the campaign count on Tim Hudson in this one. Hudson bouncing back from a rough season debut limited Cubs to one run in 6 2/3 innings last time out to pick up his first victory of the season. Braves will be in good hands, the veteran has had some success against the Nationals in his career posting a 14-5 record over 25 starts with Atlanta (15-10 TSR). Nationals at 7-3 looking to bounce back from their first home loss of the season counter with Stephen Strasburg. The right-hander opening with an impressive 7 inning shutout victory over Miami didn't have his best stuff the second start giving up 9 hits, 4 walks, 6 runs over 5 1/3 vs. Reds. Nats haven't had success vs Braves with Strasburg going 3-4 in seven career starts including 0-2 when hooked up against Hudson. The way Atlanta has been playing stick with underdog Braves in this matchup as they extend the 5-0 run vs Nationals and improve they're 10-3 ($687) road stretch w/Hudson.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 13
Cliff Notes - Saturday Baseball
By Dave Essler
Giants at Cubs: First instinct here is to take Samardzija at plus money, no matter who is pitching. Rockies hit Bumgerner pretty hard after he was unhittable against the Dodgers, but two straight 100+ pitch games could be a fade. The Cubs fared surprisingly well in two games against him last season, so without over thinking this one it's the Cubs or nothing.
Atlanta at Washington: Hudson is what he is, and is probably not going to pitch super-deep here unless he's spot-on. The difference here for me would be if Ramos is catching, whose hit him well. Most likely he is, since Tracy clearly knows that and Suzuki is catching Friday night. That should mean Washington will score some. Strasburg threw 114 pitches against the Reds, which for me is not always a fade, but it's something to not under estimate. The Braves ARE one of the teams that have given him trouble, and since I can't trust Hudson to shut down Washington, I would lean over in this one, but admittedly have not yet looked at the weather.
Milwaukee at St. Louis: Again, I cannot take the Brewers on the road with that bullpen, especially when you combine that with the fact that Gallardo has been hit hard, twice, and none of the Cardinals have had any trouble with him whatsoever. Wainright's first start at home, which could be key, because he hasn't been that sharp in his two road starts. On the other hand, he's yet to walk anyone. Without Hart or Ramirez, who had hit him well, this could be the Cardinals game to lose. With that in mind I won't lay -170 nor will I play the RL with the "potential" of the Brewers, so most likely taking a look at the over, sitting at 7.5, with a favorable weather pattern.
Reds at Pirates: That's a big number for anyone (-160) on the road, or at least it is for me. Locke was hit pretty hard b the Dodgers in LA and did give up an inordinate number of flyball outs, so the only advantage he may have is that they haven't seen much of the kid. He was at least decent at home in limited innings last year, or far better than on the road should we say. Cueto's first road start and only McCutcheon has given him much trouble. I thought I'd try to make a cade for the under, but not with what's supposed to be a big breeze blowing out to left, and a left handed pitcher going for the Reds, who have owned lefties. That total sitting at 7 seems like a gift, but we'll wait and see what happens. I suppose Locke COULD hold the Reds to 6 or less, but that may assume the Pirates will score. I suspect they will, since these are the games where Cueto loses (or can) his focus.
Philadelphia at Miami: Let's not discount the Marlins quite yet, as that kid Fernandez is the real deal. He was, after all, the 14th overall pick in the 2012 draft. If he looks half as good against the Phillies as he did against the Mets, there may be little chance this goes over the number, especially in such a pitchers park. And Hamels has been quite hittable in his first two starts so I cannot rule out taking the Fish, at the very least the RL.
Dodgers at D-Backs: My first inclination is that because the D-Backs haven't seen Ryu that there might be a first five inning bet here. But, Ryu was crushed against the lighter hitting Giants and looked great against the even lighter hitting Pirates. With that in mind, the D-backs might not have faced him yet, but the scouts now see what he's all about. Kennedy's was hit pretty hard by the Brewers, but at home shut down, for the most part, a hot Cardinals team. He's fared well against most of the Dodgers over his career, and hasn't sucked any worst in Chase, and many Arizona pitchers do over time. Not sure I want to bet into Ryu just yet, but all things being equal nine is a lot of runs in an NL game, so under is, right now, the best play IMO.
Colorado at San Diego: Chacin completely owned the Padres in Colorado last week, and induced 16 ground ball outs. That's almost an automatic reason to take the Padres here, given that they should be the ones making the adjustments. Volquez has done nothing, and was hammered in Colorado last week, which again is a reason to take the Padres, who are either free money or the Rockies really are that east at -120. I don't trust either bullpen, so with the fences in a bit at Petco, I could actually make a case for the over, which at 7 the are simply begging people to do. However, these two starters are not Tommy John and Cy Young, yet, either.
Tampa Bay at Boston: Well, Lester had been stellar while Price has looked quote pedestrian. Having watch both of his games, his fastball seems "aimed" and flat. No line on this one yet, but I suspect that Price won't be AS bad and that Lester could regress SOME. The very fact that the Rays typically play Boston very tough, no matter the venue, gives me some pause. I do think that the game stays under, but without a line that's a tough claim to make. A little chilly after tonight's rain with no helping breeze, so that's the play for me, or nothing, in this game.
Chicago at Cleveland: Well, I would love to find a way to back the Indians here, since with the acquisition of Stubbs and Reynolds that aren't the auto-fade against lefties they were last year. Two problems, though, and that's that this is not ordinary lefty, and McAllister typically gives up a lot of flyball outs, which is usually the only way Chicago scores. Bullpen advantage to the White Sox, but a home dog is tough to pass up, at least one with the potential to put up a ton of runs if they get on a roll.
Detroit at Oakland: They're giving a lot of respect to both Anderson and the A's, only making Verlander -125 here. Anderson has looked good since coming back from Tommy John surgery, but one of those games was against Seattle (who is admittedly better but on an elite offense) and the other was against Houston. Looking at the stats, I have to think Verlander is the right side here, but certainly not sure I want to get in front of the A's train right now. I may take a hard look at over 7 (+100) simply because there are more players on the field who can hit it out as opposed to those that can keep it in. Haven't looked at the weather for many of these games yet, but surely shall.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 13
MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers
We’ve got a bunch of compelling storylines tied into Saturday’s baseball card, and hopefully we can squeeze out a few winners in the process. We all love to watch underdogs exceed expectations, but we also like to watch the giants come crashing down to earth.
Perhaps it is not a surprise then that we're gripped by what’s happening in Orange County, where the Los Angeles Angels have yet to win a home game. Their 2-8 record is not only good for a spot in the AL West cellar but also the worst record in the American League. Additionally, the Angels’ 10-game stretch matches their 2-8 start from 1961 to tie the worst start in franchise history. It was supposed to be the Houston Astros holding the worst record in the junior circuit, but Bud Norris and Co. dominated the Halo’s last night and reminded us why the games are played on the field.
Coming into the season, the Angels were expected to win 92 games by Las Vegas sports books and were posted as the 7-to-2 co-favorites to win the American League. They were second choices to win the World Series at 7-to-1. It’s only two weeks into the season, but 2013 is starting to resemble 2012 when they dug an early hole too deep to climb out of. By the time October rolled around, the Angels were left on the outside-looking-in as the Rangers and A’s advanced to the postseason.
Then we have the story of the Miami Marlins, a team we all sympathize with -- but only to an extent since most of their issues were created by ownership. Their 1-9 record is the worst in baseball, and while we were all touting the Astros as a minor league caliber team, the Marlins take it a step further. They have been shut out in three of their nine losses, and have failed to score more than three runs in their remaining defeats. They’ve got a nice new ballpark the city built for them, but nobody wants to watch the product -- they're averaging just over 20,000 fans per game. Because of their six straight losses and terrible display of offense, there is no way to even take a chance on betting with the quality young arm of Jose Fernandez today against a struggling Cole Hamels.
Streaks are what baseball is all about and you have to ride them, both hot and cold. Take last night in Arizona, for instance. Clayton Kershaw hadn’t allowed a run all season, but the Dodgers had lost five straight at Chase Field. If you were told that Kershaw would allow only one run, you could get anyone to lay -400 with the Dodgers, but the D-backs ended up winning 3-0 despite seven strong innings from Kershaw.
The current hot streaks going into today include the Yankees, who have come to life behind strong offense and pitching. The Braves have now won seven straight after coming from behind against the Nationals’ bullpen. Ross Detwiler had the Braves dead in the water after six shutout innings before the Nats bullpen gave the Braves life. The A’s have won nine straight after losing their first two, and the Cardinals have won three straight to take over sole possession of first place in the NL Central.
Losing streaks can sometimes be even more effective at the bet window than winning streaks because the prices seem to be cheaper than for a hot team. We’ve already discussed the Marlins and Angels, but we can’t forget about the Padres’ three-game slide, nor should we fail to mention the White Sox’s and Twins’ current four-game skids, which take us into our first selection of the day.
Harvey to continue his mastery?
The Mets come off an explosive offensive output Friday night where they scored 16 runs in the chilly Minnesota air -- why did they build an outdoor stadium in Minnesota again? The Mets send phenom Matt Harvey (2-0, 0.64) to the mound, who has been sensational in his first two starts, striking out 19 batters in 14 innings with only four walks. He’ll be going against Scott Diamond, who is making his first start of 2013 after starting the season on the disabled list following the removal of bone chips from his elbow in December. We’ll ride the hot pitcher against the cold team, and the price is fairly cheap considering the circumstances.
The Price is right for Lester
The Rays have beat the Red Sox four straight times dating back to last season, and they’ve also beat Jon Lester the past four times they’ve faced him. But we can throw all that out of the window because this isn’t the same Lester we watched in 2012. The 2013 version of Lester (2-0, 1.50 ERA) looks a lot different thanks to the return of John Farrell. Farrell was the Red Sox pitching coach from 2007-2010 before managing the Blue Jays from 2011-2012. He is now back in Beantown as the Red Sox’s skipper. Lester’s turnaround is likely not that simple, but it does seem like a good fit considering the major transformation in his control and confidence.
Reigning Cy Young award winners aren’t the type of pitchers you want to bet against, but between David Price (0-2, 8.18 ERA) and R.A. Dickey, it would have been very profitable considering you’d be 4-0 with plus-money prices thus far. Price only gave up two runs in his first start, but he served up eight runs in five innings against a struggling Indians lineup in his second start last Sunday.
We expect a better performance out of Price today, but still think Lester gets the win, and the price (-110) is right. We also think this game should stay UNDER eight total runs. The Red Sox have stayed UNDER the number in 10 of their last 12 home games.
Snakes have Dodgers’ number
We like the D-backs to continue their spell over the Dodgers today. They’ve beat the Dodgers six straight in Arizona and have won 11 of their last 13 meetings overall. Ian Kennedy (1-0, 4.15 ERA) was bent, but not broken, in his second start of the season against the Milwaukee Brewers, and the D-backs are 2-0 in his first two starts. The price (-120) seems a little cheap for a team like Arizona that has put 55 runs on the board compared to the Dodgers’ measly 27, especially considering they have their ace on the hill.
Other games of interest:
We would love to back the Braves’ Tim Hudson (+140) today to extend their win streak to eight, but Stephen Strasburg, despite getting rocked his last outing, pitching at home is enough of a deterrent to stay clear and watch purely as a fan.
We’d also like to ride the Angels losing streak and take the Astros (+165) again, but the number isn’t high enough, even though the Astros have mashed the ball during their three-game win streak.
If it weren’t for the White Sox’s current four-game losing streak, Chris Sale (-130) could provide a nice betting opportunity. Justin Verlander (-115) also looks fairly cheap today against the red-hot A’s, but a nine-game streak isn’t something you want to be messing around with.
Mets (Harvey) -120 at Twins
Red Sox (Lester) -110 vs. Rays
Red Sox/Rays UNDER 8 (-120)
D-backs (Kennedy) -120 vs. Dodgers
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