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MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 9

MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 9

MLB Weather Report

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid-50s.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians
Forecasts are projecting a 45 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out to center field at 10 mph.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Winds will blow in from right field at 15 mph with temperatures in the mid-70s. The over was 13-9 in 2012 when the wind blew in from right field at the Ballpark in Arlington.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Forecasts are projecting a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 11 mph.

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Winds will blow out to left field at 12 mph and there is a slight 25 percent chance of a thunderstorm. The Cardinals were 5-2 in 2012 when the wind blew out to left field at Busch and the under was 5-2.

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and clear skies. Winds will blow out towards McCovey's Cove at 13 mph. The Giants were 21-12 in 2012 when the wind blew out to right field.

MLB Baseball Weather Analyzer

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 9

Cliff Notes -Tuesday Baseball
By Dave Essler

Dodgers at Padres: Really, -140 is a reasonable price for Beckett, even on the road. Of course Petco holds even more balls than Dodger Stadium, but it IS a day game. Beckett did get hurt by some sloppy defense against the Giants, but also gave up two jacks, not unlike his last decade. The occasional mental lapse. Sadly, not sure who in the Padre lineup can do some damage, and of course the Padres aren't all that familiar with him. Richard was lit up by the Mets, but I suppose that adds some value since he's been quite solid at home, as most San Diego pitchers are. However, many of the Dodgers, including Kemp and Gonzalez, have simply owned him. San Diego comes in hitting .214 as a team with only one home run, while the Dodgers only have three jacks, and are hitting .232.  Over 6.5 certainly looks tempting, but it's 6.5 for a reason and I am not buying it. With little or no bullpen, as well as Richard MIGHT pitch, the Dodgers should find a way to win this.

Mets at Phillies: Lee and Gee. Still waiting to see what happens with Monday's game, but if the Phillies go back into their hitting slump and/or wait til the ninth inning, I could make a case for the Mets. They are a confident bunch after that Sunday win over the Fish, and they have hit twice as many jacks as the Phillies have so far. But, of course it's Cliff Lee against a Mets team that last year struggled against any LHP's. Lee was brilliant in Atlanta, which looks a bit better seeing as how the Braves have been hitting. I'd be a little concerned that he threw 106 pitches. There's enough of a reason, given the familiarity, for me to at least consider the Mets. However, Citizens Bank Park was not his favorite place to pitch last year. Very mild in Philadelphia Tuesday night, and at seven in a somewhat hitter-friendly park, that's a tempting over. If the Phillies get to the Mets bullpen early enough, the could see seven by themselves.

Atlanta at Miami: Of all the pitchers I would consider fading on the Braves right now, Medlen is at the top of my list, if for no other reason than the fact that he was literally unhittable last season, making him way to expensive. There's just no way he can duplicate those numbers, and the Marlins are one of the teams that's seen him, twice. Put LeBlanc in a big park like this, and if he keeps the ball in it, the Fish could keep this game close. I won't lay that number with anyone on the road, probably ever, so it's the Fish, the Fish RL, or the total here. With the Braves pen, I'd say under, but that of course depends on Monday's game. If it stays under, there is value to the Fish RL. No, they are not a great team, but any home team with 1.5 at -110 or less is almost always worth it.

Milwaukee at Chicago: I may be at the point where taking the Brewers and their lack of a bullpen is out of the question on the road. I was certainly hoping the Brewers would be favored here. Milwaukee had a hard time closing out a five run lead on Monday. Wood looked good against the Pirates and his pitch count was down. If Braun wasn't back in the lineup this would have been an auto bet on the Cubs, since he's pretty much owned Woods. Peralta may be SOMEWHAT under valued since the beating he took was at the hands of the Rockies, who've been doing that to everyone. Combine that with the fact that the Cubs haven't seen him, and I could make a case for the Brewers, but back to sentence number one, not with that pen on the road. After todays' 11 run game tomorrow's total might be high at the outset, given the weather pattern, but by the same token, it might not be wise to expect a pitchers' duel, either.

Reds at Cardinals: I was really hoping St. Louis would win Monday's game, or at least not lose it like they did, because I really wanted to fade Lynn, again, as the streamlined version of Lance appears to be struggling with control, and did most of the Spring. There was no doubt the Reds had the better bullpen, even before this little meltdown. The only good thing is that I considered taking St. Louis. Another game where the total tomorrow, already set at 8.5 (which is a fair bit for an NL game) might be high, based on nothing other than regression, because these two could give up that many easily. No real feel for this one after what the Reds did today. Almost think they may do it again tomorrow, at least now.

Minnesota at Kansas City: The enigma that is the Twins continues, as they fail to do much except have their bullpen lose another one. If the Royals had a bullpen they'd be dangerous. I cannot get this weekend in Philadelphia out of my mind, and even in winning today Crow did all he could to out the tying run on in the ninth. That would make me CONSIDER the Twins again. Pelfrey looked good against the Tigers, but most notably were the 14 ground ball outs. Since he went to Witchita State and the Royals haven't seen him, there's always the chance of fading Guthrie here. But, Guthrie was equally impressive against the White Sox, then again, the White Sox haven't been hitting anyone. Take him out of Coors Field and he's backable, but the Twins have hit him hard. That over is tempting, given the ways to get there and a potential helping breeze, and I just can't see the real value in Guthrie -150.

Oakland at Texas: Parker is just not right and hasn't been all Spring. The very fact that Wilson is -165 is quite telling. Reddick nor Moss hit LHP well at all, and Cespedes is really struggling out of the gate. The only real advantage is that the A's don't play on Monday, while Texas does. Wilson has completely owned the A's, but he always seems to have that one big inning. That total only sitting at 7.5 in Arlington, no matter what time of year, is telling to me. Add to that the fact that Reddick is doubtful and Cespedes is questionable, I just cannot make a reasonable case for the A's, no matter how many runs they've been scoring. They got hot for a couple of games against Seattle and then scored all over Houston, so clearly they're offensive stats are skewed. I'd love to see that total go to eight and perhaps take the under. This looks like a 4-1 Texas win to me.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 9

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers

When Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers meet at Comerica Park on Tuesday both will be looking to get back on track after being skunked the previous game. Blue Jays spanked 13-0 by Red Sox will hand the ball to Brandon Morrow while Tigers trounced 7-0 by Yankees counter with Anibal Sanchez. Toronto hasn't had much success last five trips into Detroit posting a 1-4 mark but Jays have betting trends in their favor to put a dent in that record. Jays were 7-2 (+$679) last year after being blanked including 4-1 (+$487) on the road. Jays are 6-1 (+$522) L2+Ys after loss by 12 or more runs. On the other side, Tigers are on a 1-4 ($-407) skid following a game in which they were blanked. Jays 7-3 in their last 10 road starts w/Morrow, Tigers 0-5 off a loss w/Sanchez were recommending a 'Play-On' Jays.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 9

MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts

LAS VEGAS -- When the Dodgers played at San Diego in last season’s opening series, three of the four games went OVER the total, with L.A. winning the first three games before Clayton Richard helped the Padres avoid the sweep in the fourth. But last year, Matt Kemp, it seemed, was going 2-for-4 and hitting bombs everyday. Kemp is hitting .100 this season.

Richard takes the mound today in the Padres’ home opener against the Dodgers’ Josh Beckett, getting +120 with a total at some places as low as 6.5 (OVER -140).

The Padres have hit only .203 and scored just 14 runs in their first six road games, not the type of numbers that gives a bettor confidence. Making them less attractive today is that Richard got blasted in his first start against the Mets, giving up seven earned runs through 4 1/3 innings in an 8-4 loss, which is part of the reason for such a high number against him today.

But there are two big factors in the Padres’ favor today: 1) they’re playing at home, and 2) they’re facing Beckett, who isn’t exactly in the upper-echelon of starting pitchers anymore. Beckett struggled in his first start last week, at home against the Giants, allowing five runs (three earned) in a 5-3 loss, and we think he‘ll have some trouble today as well.

Better yet, Richard should continue being very good at home (8-5, 3.02 ERA in 2012), and the Padres bats should come to life in front of a large crowd for the home opener.

The Dodgers have a 4-2 record compared to the Padres’ 1-5 mark, but L.A. has scored only 17 runs this season while hitting only .231. Three of their wins came via a home sweep of the Pirates, a team that’s hitting worse than the Padres, and Clayton Kershaw shutouts have accounted for two of the wins.

So we have a strong lean to the Padres today, and a small lean on this game getting OVER the total.

In San Francisco tonight, it’s well worth taking another shot against Tim Lincecum (-135 vs. the Rockies), along with going OVER seven runs.

Lincecum got the 5-3 win against the Dodgers in his last start, but if L.A. was in any condition to hit that day, the game would have been blown wide open – Lincecum allowed seven walks through his five innings. The Rockies, meanwhile, don’t have any problems hitting the ball, and they come with Juan Nicasio, who pitched six strong innings in a 7-3 win at Milwaukee, allowing only two runs.

The Rockies have been one of the pleasant surprises in the early season and lead MLB in just about every major hitting category, including average (.317), on-base percentage (.368) and slugging percentage (.539). Their 41 runs scored rank third.

Lincecum is going to have a hard time skating by in key moments tonight, and the sports books are willing to give +126 to those taking a shot with the Rockies. We’re biting, and we also think that Lincecum will help this game get OVER the total.

Other games that might present some value tonight, but didn’t make our cut, are the Brewers (+101) at the Cubs facing Travis Wood. Also, the Rays should be steaming mad about the final third-strike call last night, and the Rangers’ Nick Tepesch should not be favored as high as -130. Additionally, there's a chance to pick on the A’s Jarrod Parker at Anaheim with C.J. Wilson on the mound, but the -150 number is a little too pricey for us.

Tuesday plays:

Padres (Richard) +120 vs. Dodgers

Rockies (Nicasio) +126 vs. Giants

Rockies/Giants OVER 7 (-115)

Season to date record: 19-4 (+1673)

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