MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, April 8
MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, April 8
MLB Weather Watch
Here’s a look at notable weather for Monday’s games around the majors.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s and mostly cloudy conditions. Winds are expected to blow out to center field at 15 mph.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out to left field at 13 mph.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Mostly cloudy and temperatures in the mid-60s. Winds blowing out to center field at six mph. The Phillies were 15-8 in 2012 when the wind blew out to center field.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Forecasts are calling for cool temperatures in the high-40s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to McCovey’s Cove at 14 mph. The Giants were 21-12 in 2012 when the wind blew out to right field.
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-60s and a 40 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out to center field at 15 mph.
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low-70s. Winds blowing at seven mph out to left field.
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Strong winds are expected to blow in from right field at 20 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-70s under mostly cloudy conditions.
MLB Baseball Weather Analyzer
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, April 8
Monday Cliff Notes
By Dave Essler
Reds at Cardinals: Reds outlast Washington, but what would concern me here is that they had to use Marshall, Broxton, and Chapman on Sunday, while the Cardinals used very little bullpen, thanks to Wainright. We did give them out as a probably play in one of our write ups, and I pride myself on that type of thing, even though it doesn't show in the boxscore. Obviously Cardinals home opener and Reds first road game. Garcia's ERA at home last year was far better than on the road, but his hits/walks/WHIP et all really were not that much different than on the road. He has managed the Reds order fairly well, but at -110 they almost appear to be begging for people to take St. Louis, so I may find a way not to. Garcia shut down, on the road, a hot-hitting D-backs team and managed to keep the ball on the ground all night, too. What would concern me about the Reds, aside from the pen issue, is that Latos threw 100 pitches against the Angels. Given the success of the Cardinals against Latos, I do think the Cardinals are the right side. Will look at the total (hit 62%) this week, later.
Mets at Phillies: The Mets were very fortunate not to get blown out by the Fish, and were simply able to get out of jam after jam on Sunday. Then of course had timely hitting off of Cishek in the ninth. Phillies almost pull the second improbable in a row against the Royals, so one has to wonder if they aren't pretty confident right now. But, then there's Halladay. Apparently it's all about his release point and allowing more flyballs. Whatever the case may be, that could be in his head right now. He has, however, owned Wright, Duda, and Murphy so the Mets could be the cure here. One has to wonder whether Harvey's impressive outing was him, the opposition, or both, but he hasn't given up much to the few Phillies he's faced. All things being equal this may come down to bullpens, and I trust neither. This is a fairly cheap price on the potential of Halladay, really. I leaned under, but that's already come down off of 8, so probably a pass. Perhaps a lean back to the over, since it's supposed to be fairly mild with a slight helping breeze. Tough one right now.
Atlanta at Miami: The Fish did everything but win the game in New York, and Stanton just looks lost right now. It's not a matter of teams pitching around him, either, because he hasn't been up with runners on. Freddie Freeman went on the DL for the Braves, and that could pose a defensive problem, actually. Maholm looked pretty good last week against the Phillies, but that was the Phillies who until the weekend weren't hitting. Many of the Marlins have done enough damage to think that the cheap Miami RL might be worth a play, especially in a big park that may not see too many runs. Slowey looked pretty good against the Nationals, but it's still Kevin Slowey. Maybe with less expectations he'll settle down. Certainly might have a hard time trusting the Miami bullpen after they were all used today, and gave it up as it would be. I'd trust the Braves' better even if they hadn't been used, obviously. Since the Braves don't have much exposure to him, I could see Miami scoring some off of Maholm, and perhaps a first five inning bet on Miami.
Pittsburgh at Arizona: After the late game(s) against the Brewers and the complete meltdown(s) of the Arizona bullpens, I lean Pirates here as it's the D-Backs first game back, and a late night Sunday at that. Pittsburgh's value may never be better, since they only had four hits against Ryu and less against Kerhsaw, and they may well be in Arizona before the D-Backs are. Of course it's always tough to fade Arizona, at home, against a left-handed pitcher, but Wandy's done a good enough job in limited exposure for me not to rule out the Pirates here. Cahill clearly either stayed in Arizona or left early, so we're not worried about him being tired. We are worried about him at home, as we have been since he became a D-back. Perhaps he totally benefited from pitching several years in Oakland's big park. The totals' already come off of "9" in most places. This is only the second time most of the Pirate regulars have seen him, but that may not deter me. It's another one that at -150 (and dropping) they may be asking for Arizona money. And if the Pirates RL is that expensive (-165) then it's a small play on Pittsburgh or pass. I just won't lay big units on big chalk, which is what has worked for us for three seasons.
Baltimore at Boston: My first thought was what would this line have been a week ago when nobody expected anything from Boston. I'd expect people to jump all over them after what they did in Toronto on Sunday. In trying to make the opposite case, although Buchholz looked great at New York, it was a weak Yankee lineup and he did give up more flyball outs than not, which is also something I watch closely. He's owned Markakis, who's just not hitting right now, and Hardy has owned him, so up and down there is a case to be made that the Orioles might score. Yes, it's Boston's home opener, but Fenway is always full and it will bring out the best in Baltimore, too. Perhaps the Orioles were thinking about this game while they were losing to the Twins, and doing so only allowing four hits. Chen looked good at Tampa bay, but everyone has against the Rays so far. His pitch count was down, but Boston hasn't had any trouble hitting him in the two times they've met before. Given Boston's serious bullpen advantage, I would have to think they may be the right side. But, knowing these two teams like I do, nothing the Orioles do in Boston surprises me. That total sitting at nine is probably a result of what Boston did on Sunday and what they Orioles have done the first week. My inclination would be that Middlebrooks, although he hits Chen well, will not hit three more home runs and that the natural regression of things keeps this under the number, but I will wait and see if it goes to 9.5 first. Huge difference.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, April 8
MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers
LAS VEGAS -- There is an intriguing matchup in the National League today with the Mets playing at Philadelphia at 7:05 p.m. ET. The game features Roy Halladay, one of the greats who appears to be on the decline, facing Matt Harvey, one of the better young pitchers in the game. The Phillies are 2-4 on the year, thanks to allowing the most runs in the NL (41), while the Mets’ record has been bolstered to 4-2 thanks to going against the weak lineups of the Padres and Marlins.
We saw Halladay struggle in spring training, allowing batters to hit .323 against him, and his struggles carried into his first regular season start last Wednesday against the Braves, when he lasted only 3 2/3 innings and allowed five runs. Halladay did strike out nine Braves, but his pitch count got to 95 in a hurry.
Meanwhile, Harvey’s outing on Wednesday was magnificent. He went seven innings against the Padres – striking out 10, allowing no runs and surrendering only one hit in an eventual 8-4 win. We like Harvey to continue pitching well and also look for Halladay’s declining pattern of the last six weeks to continue.
It’s only the first week of the season, but the 4-2 Red Sox are at the top of the AL East. Today, they match up against the AL’s top hitting team, the Baltimore Orioles (.301). Clay Buchholz takes the mound for the Sox and should continue a great spring run that spilled over into his first regular start at Yankee Stadium last Wednesday, where he allowed only one run in seven innings. Granted, the O’s lineup is much more imposing than the Yankees', but we think Buchholz will get the best of Wei-Yen Chen today, and if looking to bet, hurry up, because it’s an early game (2:05 p.m. ET).
One of top underdogs today is the Pirates’ Wandy Rodriguez (+130) facing Trevor Cahill at Arizona (9:40 p.m., ET). The Bucs are the worst offensive team in baseball, but if there’s any good news it’s that they finally got a home run, as Andrew McCutchen put one out of the park on Sunday. The real reason to take a look at the Bucs today is Rodriguez, who has won the only game of the season for the Bucs. He’s still amped after a great World Baseball Classic and came strong for 6 2/3 innings against the Cubs, allowing only two hits and no runs in a 3-0 win. Cahill fell victim in the Diamondbacks’ only loss of the season, last Tuesday against the Cardinals.
Mets (Harvey) +105 at Phillies
Red Sox (Buchholz) -135 vs. Orioles
Pirates (Rodriguez) +130 at D’Backs
Season to date record: 16-4 (+1338)