MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 2
MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 2
Cliff Notes - Tuesday Baseball
By Dave Essler
Orioles at Rays: This would be a process of elimination play for me. I won't lay -175 very often, but Price's numbers in the Trop are beastly. I believe his ERA last season was under 2.00, and I actually like the Rays better without Upton. Honestly, I think he'll be a distraction in Atlanta. More on that another time. Hammel is at least servicable, but with the Rays (Longoria) healthy for the first time in a long time, if I bet the Rays I'd take the -1.5 (+130). But, in an under venue like the Trop, that's probably not the smartest bet either. IMO the Rays win this game either way. Certainly not brilliant to fade Price at home (yet) but if someone has a good angle don't let me talk you out of it.
Cleveland at Toronto: Certainly the most interesting matchup (to me) of the day. Both teams spending like the Yankees in the off season and both with lofty expectations. I do like Masterson when he can keep the ball down as he did in 2011. But not so much last year. Bautista has a couple of shots off him and even Melky Cabrera is hitting .545 in a reasonable amount of at bats, sans PED's, now. Certainly going to pay a premium for Dickey, but I see the Indians were scalped fairly quickly. Dickey has never pitched in Toronto, and in a dome, without wind, I wonder how much the effects the knuckle ball. Typically the ball moves much more with some wind. Having said that, I could see taking the Indians. That total (at least the vig) was bet up fairly quickly and I think you'd expect that with two potentially potent offenses, especially at "8" in an AL game. The bottom line to this one is that Dickey can throw an inordinate amount of pitches, and I do not trust Pestano or Perez for the Indians, so I'd pass or take Cleveland. Maybe even the RL, although -140 is a bit steep.
Colorado at Milwaukee: Immediate lean to the over in this one after having both bullpens used and abused on Monday. The Brewers should simply dominate LHP this season, even before Hart comes back, and De La Rosa is more than hittable. Estrada is a strikeout pitcher who doesn't walk many, but against the free-swinging Rockies that could be a bad thing. He did give up some bombs at home last year, but was almost unhittable with a .214 BAA. So, it's all or nothing here. Think it's all since the Rockies did little to improve their staff this year, and had the worst WHIP (by far) in baseball last year at 1.55. That stat has little to do with playing in Coors Field, because it (their WHIP) was 1.49 on the road. I could make a reasonable case for a Brewers boatrace here.
St. Louis at Arizona: Always need to wait to see what happens the night before, but for arguments sake we'll start somewhere. Cahill was abused at home last season, and Garcia was abused on the road. Clearly that's built into this total because "9" in a National League game is a shitload, even at Coors Field in July. Cahill did have a solid Spring, but this line looks eerily similar to the Pirates line on Monday. Since Garcia is so tough on RHH, I can see where he could easily pitch to Kubel and Montero and around Goldschmidt, so for me it's probably the Cardinals or nothing.
San Francisco at LA Dodgers: I simply cannot take the Dodgers here because we've got such an unknown with Ryu. His numbers in Korea were great (1.15 WHIP) but he really doesn't have overpowering stuff. With that in mind, the Giants certainly haven't seen him, so it ma take a time through the order. And in Bumgarner we do know what we're getting, and that's someone that's for the most part owned the Dodgers. Because I trust the Giants bullpen blindly, if this total inches up to 7 I could see taking the under here, especially in Dodger Stadium which is clearly a pitchers' park, and especially at night.
Texas at Houston: As badly as Harrell pitched last year (at times when I bet on him), he only gave up three of his thirteen jacks in Minute Maid last season. If Beltre wasn't 5-7 against him I'd take the Astros, believe it or not, because most of these Houston hitters saw Darvish last season, and he got progressively worse last year, month by month, as other teams saw what he had. (another reason to take the under in the Dodgers game). What I do think will happen is that because this total is sitting at "8" in an over park, is that Darvish will pitch well, and that Texas wins a game that stays under, something like 5-1. Terrible game to bet, as we won't take -180 teams (ever on the road) and can't logically make a case for Houston. Perhaps the RL at only -105 for a marble. If the roof is open (it should be) then MAYBE this does go over. Perhaps a reasonable R-L wind.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, April 2
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Cleveland at Toronto
Toronto opened up it's wallet this off season acquiring shortstop Jose Reyes, second baseman Emilio Bonifacio, lefty Mark Buehrle and righty Josh Johnson from the Marlins. If that were not enough the club snagged National League reigning Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey. All that equals some high expectations north of the border, as the Blue Jays eye an A.L. East title and their first postseason spot since 1993. R.A. Dickey takes the ball on Opening Day for Toronto and will match up against Indians righty Justin Masterson. Dickey looking to repeating a 2012 campaign which saw him post a 20-6 record and 2.73 ERA should get off to a good start. The knuckler won't be fazed in his new A.L. environment, Dickey was a perfect 8-0 in 11 starts vs the A.L. (10-1 TSR) as a member of Mets including a win over Tribe. On the other mound, Masterson takes the ball on Opening Day for the second year in a row. Masterson was tagged with a ND in his opener last year vs Jays as Tribe fell 7-4. Jays on a sparkling 6-2 opening day run, 4-2 in the series last season, 6-3 the past 9 encounters are worth a second look.