Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, March 29

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, March 29

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Oklahoma City at Minnesota
The Thunder look to build on their 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games versus a team with a losing SU record. Oklahoma City is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7 1/2)

Game 851-852: Washington at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 116.899; Orlando 112.191
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 853-854: Philadelphia at Cleveland (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 116.165; Cleveland 116.592
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2); Over

Game 855-856: Atlanta at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.017; Boston 122.651
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 5 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-1 1/2); Under

Game 857-858: Toronto at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 108.752; Detroit 108.708
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 209
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 859-860: Charlotte at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 107.185; New York 125.288
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 18; 206
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 861-862: Oklahoma City at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 127.069; Minnesota 116.468
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7 1/2); Under

Game 863-864: Miami at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.314; New Orleans 120.508
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 4; 199
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 865-866: Houston at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 116.861; Memphis 127.226
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 10 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 5; 197
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-5); Under

Game 867-868: LA Clippers at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 123.293; San Antonio 126.189
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 208
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 869-870: Brooklyn at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 118.251; Denver 132.427
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 14; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2); Under

Game 871-872: Utah at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 117.965; Portland 120.710
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 2 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NCAAB

Michigan State vs. Duke
The Blue Devils look to take advantage of a Michigan State is that is coming off a 70-48 win over Memphis and is 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 games following a win by 20 points or more. Duke is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Duke (-2)

Game 873-874: Oregon vs. Louisville (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 70.548; Louisville 79.845
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 9 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Louisville by 11; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+11); Over

Game 875-876: Michigan State vs. Duke (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 72.335; Duke 76.487
Dunkel Line: Duke by 4; 130
Vegas Line: Duke by 2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-2); Under

Game 877-878: Michigan at Kansas (7:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 68.777; Kansas 73.850
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 5; 133
Vegas Line: Kansas by 2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-2); Under

Game 879-880: Florida Gulf Coast vs. Florida (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Gulf Coast 63.146; Florida 73.298
Dunkel Line: Florida by 10; 142
Vegas Line: Florida by 13; 136
Dunkel Pick: Florida Gulf Coast (+13); Over

NHL

Anaheim at Chicago 
The Blackhawks look to take advantage of an Anaheim team that is 3-7 in its last 10 games in Chicago. Chicago is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155)

Game 51-52: New Jersey at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.608; Tampa Bay 11.771
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

Game 53-54: Minnesota at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.888; Dallas 10.660
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Over

Game 55-56: Anaheim at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 10.360; Chicago 12.744
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155); Under

Game 57-58: Columbus at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.673; Calgary 10.941
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, March 29

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Raptors at Detroit PistonsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Detroit PistonsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Pistons host the Raptors in this match-up of two teams who will be home for the playoffs this season, Detroit will take the court off an embarrassing 23-point home loss to Minnesota Tuesday night. That sets the table for this fray as the Pistons are 17-6 ATS at home in games off a home loss, including 7-1 ATS when off a loss of 15 or more points. With Toronto caught in the middle of an Atlanta/Washington sandwich, and a measly 1-6 SU ATS in games after hook ups with the Hawks, we'll stay at home in the Motor City with the Pistons tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This one fits a very simple yet effective system that pertains to game going over the total. Road teams like Toronto with 1 day of rest that scored 90 or less as a home dog of 4 or less have flown over 9 of 10 times, vs an opponent like Detroit that shot 45% or less as a home dog of 4 or less. If the sample had been a little larger we would have rated at 3 units. However this is fine for a free play for tonight. Toronto has flown over 5 of 7 times when playing off 3 or more games that went over the total and 9 of 13 this month, including 5 straight. Detroit has gone over 14 of the last 17 times when playing off 3 or more games that went under the total and 5 of the last 7 vs teams who allow 99 or more. Look for this one to go over tonight.

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Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke -2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's no surprise to see the Blue Devils in the Sweet 16 as this team has lost one game all season with Ryan Kelly in the lineup. I'm a big believer in this team and the 2nd half dominance they showed over Creighton will carry over to their matchup against the Spartans. Not to take anything away from Michigan State, but this is a difficult matchup for the Spartans. Michigan State doesn't defend the 3-point shot well and offensively could struggle with Duke's interior defense making it hard for Nix and Payne to get easy looks. The Big Ten started to show they might not be all their made out to be, as Ohio State barely held on to beat Arizona and the Hoosier got rolled by Syracuse. Look for Duke to take control of this game in the second half and easily cover this small spread.

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Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Heat at HornetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The over is 7-1 in Miami's last 8 games vs. Western Conference opponents. The over is 6-2 in the Hornets' last 8 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents, 11-4 in the Hornets' last 15 Friday games. The over is also 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in New Orleans. Play Miami-New Orleans Over.

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta at BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A pair of teams fighting for the same playoff spot, No. 6 in the East, which means this game will have a playoff atmosphere (plenty of defensive intensity). Boston plays its best defense at home, No. 7 in field goal shooting defense and 9th in points allowed, while the offense is without playmaker Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett, on a 2-0 run under the total. The new-look backcourt, though, is outstanding defensively and Atlanta is very good on defense, as well, and plays its 4th straight road game here. Play the Hawks/Celtics under the total.

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Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma City -7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma City has dominated Minnesota winning 14 of the last 15 in the series. The Timberwolves don't have the offense to keep up with the Thunder, nor the defense to keep Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in check.
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It's a bad matchp for Minnesota both player-wise and on a situational level. This marks the Timberwolves' sixth game in nine days. The Timberwolves lack the depth with all of their injuries to keep pace with Oklahoma City when fatigue is a major factor.
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The Thunder can't afford to let down in this game playing such a lowly opponent. I don't see that happening as the Timberwolves caught the Thunder's attention by nearly beating the Lakers at home this past Wednesday and that the Thunder is just 1 1/2 games behind San Antonio for the Western Conference lead and knowing the Spurs have an upcoming game against the Heat.
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Oklahoma City not only leads the NBA in scoring, but also has been playing outstanding defense holding four straight opponents to 90 points or fewer. Oklahoma City has had no problem exploiting the Timberwolves' porous defense averaging 115.2 points during the past 11 meetings between the two teams.
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The Thunder know how to beat up the bad teams covering 10 of the last 12 times when facing a sub-.500 foe. Minnesota also is at its worst against strong opponents going 5-15-2 ATS versus above .500 teams.

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JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon +10.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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J Oster is rocking with the CONFIDENT 12th seed... these 28-8 Oregon Ducks  will go toe to toe with the 12-0 last 12 Louisville Cards plus the 10.5... Ducks are well coached Dana Altman and we will not call for the Outright but we will call for a cover.... Swag and Confidence with the Ducks Tonight........... Don't count of EJ Singler tonight ... plus let's power rate this ball game @ Cards - 7 flat....the Ducks are confident their offense can STROKE THE 3 ... last  2 games they went 8 for 11 from the 3-point range .. Oklahoma State and Saint Louis.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. DallasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After going 16 games without a win in Dallas, Minnesota can gets its second win this week at Big D with a success tonight at AmericanAirlines Center. On Monday, the Wild scored a 7-4 win, with eight players having two or more points in Minnesota's highest-scoring game in four seasons. But the Wild have been succeeding everywhere lately, gunning for their ninth win on the trot and seventh straight away from home.  Goalie Niklas Backstrom can now set a career high with an eighth consecutive victory after turning aside 24 shots Wednesday vs. Phoenix.  Meanwhile, Stars GK Kari Lehtonen was peppered for six goals on Monday and will be making his 13th straight start for Dallas, and could be tiring from the heavy workload.

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Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Jersey vs. Tampa BayFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played twice this year. The Devils won 4-2 in front of the home town crowd on February 7th. Tampa Bay won 5-2 in New Jersey on March 5th. Six of these teams last six in the series have gone over the number. Looking back further sees the O/U at 13-6-1 the last 20, and I believe we'll see another shootout tonight. New Jersey has seen the O/U go 7-6-3 on the road, while Tampa has seen it go 8-6-3 on home ice. It's a tough two game set for the Devils, who are on the road and in Florida tomorrow night; there's no rest for the wicked in this truncated season, and New Jersey is going to be pushed by the Lightning, who have enjoyed two whole days off after a momentum building 2-1 win over Buffalo on Tuesday. I believe the table is set for another explosive high-scoring affair.

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John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon at LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Louisville will win this game by 15 or more points. Louisville is vastly better at both ends of the court, especially on defense. Oregon has not played against this type of stifling defense. Louisville will certainly disrupt the flow of the Oregon offense that has struggled mightily at times this season. The Ducks are a poor ball handling team and guard play is always an important factor in these final rounds of the Tournament. Ducks rank 227th in the nation posting a 0.868 assist-to-turnover ratio and will be matched up against he best with Louisville posting a 0.532 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. Louisville has averaged 11.0 steals per game that ranks second in the nation. SIM underscores these advantages with numerous projections. Louisville is projected to attempt between 54 and 62 shots, will make between 40 and 46% of their shot attempts, will make between 31 and 37% of their 3-point shot attempts, will make between 72 and 78% of their free throws, will have between 9 and 13 offensive rebounds, will commit at least three fewer turnovers than Oregon, and will score between 67 and 74 points. In past games, Louisville is a rock solid 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons.10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons; 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons. 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game this season; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when they commit 3 to 7 fewer turnovers than opponents spanning the last 3 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Louisville.

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Tony KarpinskiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida Gulf Coast vs. FloridaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: FloridaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both teams that distribute the ball very well, behind their guards, Brent Comer for FGCU, and Scottie Wilbekin for Florida, in particular. I expect a very good game especially near the beginning. We all know the high on the mountain trip the Eagles are on now, exuding confidence, as they should be, enjoying every moment of it, they warrant all of it. Georgetown and New Mexico St were very similiar teams with slow it down styles. Now they face an uptempo Florida team who is very deep and athletic. Florida still has a lock down defense, which FGCU hasn’t seen yet and this rec team from FLorida Gulf Coast will be in for a big surprise.

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Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon vs. LouisvilleFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The big thing in this game is Oregon’s ability to deal with Louisville’s pressure defense which had a record breaking 20 steals and forced 27 turnovers in their last game. Oregon is no stranger to turning the ball over leading the PAC 12, but they also led the PAC12 in forced turnovers per possession. I think there is enough value despite the public being on Oregon and the line rising. Louisville is just on an insane ATS run right now and it’s bound to end very soon as they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 overall 20-7 ATS in their last 27 neutral games. Oregon has been playing exceptional going 17-8 ATS in their last 25 vs. a team with a win % greater than .600. The only thing keeping me from making this a premium play is the extra time off. I think if Oregon was able to jump into this game they could have continued their hot shooting. Despite all of that I do think they will be competitive. Oregon faces Louisville who is 2nd in the nation in forcing turnovers per possession, but they are 3-0 vs. an 8th ranked team, 21st ranked, and 76th beating St Louis and Oklahoma State in this tournament who both likes to force turnovers. Louisville is also ranked 27th in 2 point defense where Oregon will take most of their points. If Oregon is able to get into the half court they are a very good passing team and are actually 4-1 SU vs. teams ranked inside the top 55 in 2 point defense. In the tournament they have beaten Oklahoma State 14th, and St Louis 55th.

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Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia vs. ClevelandFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This past Sunday saw the 76ers win a road game for the first time since New Years Day as they went into Sacramento and won 117-103. They promptly went out and lost the following night, by 16, in Utah. They bounced back with an eight-point home win over Milwaukee Wednesday, but now its back on the road tonight as they get set to visit Cleveland.  With the Sixers favored, I have to step in and go against them.
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Here are my keys to the game.
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1.  Cleveland Tougher Than You Think - The Cavs may have lost six in a row, but they have played the Spurs, Heat and Celtics tough during that span, losing to those teams by only a combined 10 points. They lost to the Celtics at the buzzer Wednesday night.  I expect them to come back motivated as they try and end this losing streak
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2.  Philly's road woes -  The 76ers have one of the worst records in the league since December 1st at 18-37 SU.  The major reason for this is their road play as they are 3-24 on the road during that time! They have lost at Orlando earlier this month.   They have lost at Minnesota and Phoenix.  Perhaps most importantly, they lost at Cleveland earlier in the year.
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3. X-Factor: Twice this season Cleveland has found itself on a six-game losing streak.  They have won their next game both times. One of those was against Philadelphia.

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Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville -10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Those who follow me KNOW I do not like laying big numbers BUT Oregon's Dana Altman has coached up his players to this point because he is damn good, but the Cards are the best team in this tourney right now and the fact Oregon turns the ball over like crazy, 15 a game on the year, and Louisville's defense has forced 36 turnovers so far in the tourney, and the Cards going back 10 games have almost all wins by double digits including not breaking a sweat in this tourney, has me fading a PAC 12 team who has overachieved, and we watch Rick Pitno's boys slash them tonight.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville -10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games so they obviously know how to prepare for their opponent. The Cardinals defense has been remarkable throughout the Big East Tournament and NCAA Tournament. In their last five games they have held opponents to 55.4 points per game while scoring 76.4 per game giving them an average margin of victory at 21 points.
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There are few teams in college basketball that can force turnovers like Louisville does. They average 20 forced turnovers per game while committing only 13 of their own. That should have this Ducks team scared coming into tonight’s matchup. Oregon has put together a solid season, but they have not been consistent. The Ducks are 3-11 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. They are outmatched from every angle against the best team in college basketball and it will certainly show tonight.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville -10 over OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In bringing Saint Louis' season to a surprising, abrupt end last Saturday, Oregon played one of the most impressive games of the entire tournament, dismantling the Billikens 74-57. The same fate does not await the Cardinals here in this nightmarish mismatch for the Ducks. Against Saint Louis, the Ducks made 8 of 11 3-point attempts (72.7 percent), a rate far better than they usually shoot from downtown (33.2 percent on the season). Furthermore, the Billikens grabbed just three of 33 missed shots (a ridiculously low number) but Louisville ranks 14th in the country in offensive rebounding (38.5 percent of missed shots). Moreover, the Cardinals rank second in the NCAA in steals and turnovers, which jacks their defensive efficiency all the way up to the top of the charts (81.1 points per 100 possessions).
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Overall, Louisville has outscored opponents by a whopping 34.5 points per 100 possessions, making it one of the most bulletproof teams in the tournament. And Russ Smith and Peyton Siva, both of whom rank in the top 30 in steal percentage, are going to have a field day with this matchup because the Ducks' point guard duo of freshman Dominic Artis and undersized junior Johnathan Loyd have struggled with turnovers all season. Oregon’s 21.6 percent turnover figure makes them the 263rd-worst team in the nation in coughing up the basketball. There’s a strong chance that Louisville gets out to a nice lead, forcing the Ducks to play catch-up and that’s only going to make things worse. Oregon is not a strong shooting team. In order for them to compete with Louisville, it is going to have to work the ball inside and we’re not sure they’re capable of doing so against this elite defense. Basketball is all about matchups and for the Ducks this is the worst possible draw in the round of 16.
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Michigan State +122 over DukeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What an intriguing match-up. Coach K versus Tom Izzo. This is going to be one of the most watched NCAA games in history and it should be a great one. You’re going to read about how Coach K has won six of the last seven meetings against Tom Izzo, including relatively recent early season affairs in 2010 and 2011. That’s nice, it really is but Duke had the horses in those games and easy it was not, as State covered the number in five of those seven losses. This time around, the Spartans have some significant edges. Duke is not known for its physicality, particularly that of big men Mason Plumlee and the struggling Ryan Kelly. The Spartans' low-post trio of Adreian Payne, Derrick Nix and Branden Dawson, who combined for 65 points and 49 points in their first two tourney games, is as tough and physical as it gets.
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We always stress looking at value. This game is very likely going to be won or lost on the glass. In that respect, the Spartans have an advantage and could gain a huge edge if Plumlee gets into foul trouble. After all, should that come to pass, who is going to rebound for Duke? That’s not to say the Dukies can’t win this game. They have some edges too. The Blue Devils play tremendous defense and any one of a number of good shooters could go off for a big game. However, in an evenly matched contest, where either team could just as easily win as the other, taking back a tag is the prudent move. Incidentally, Spartans point guard Keith Appling looks like he's good to go here after suffering minor knee and shoulder injuries last weekend.
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Michigan +119 over KansasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The two key players in this matchup are lottery picks Trey Burke for the Wolverines and Ben McLemore for the Jayhawks. However, McLemore has all but disappeared with a series of poor showings, going just 4-for-21 from the floor over his past three games while taking only 10 free throw attempts. Bill Self benched McLemore down the stretch of Kansas' win against North Carolina. That’s not how you want to go into a game against the Wolverines. The Jayhawks are smart and experienced but they lack toughness and they have some disturbing losses this season, especially the one to TCU. Additionally, confident point guards have given the Jayhawks trouble. They were not able to sufficiently slow down the likes of Keith Appling (Michigan State), Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State), Korie Lucious (Iowa State), and Pierre Jackson (Baylor) and now they have to deal with the best of them all in the unflappable Trey Burke.
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Michigan is wrongly billed as the dog in this game and it’s because it is considered too inexperienced with an eight-man rotation consisting of four freshmen, two sophomores and two juniors. We say, “big deal”. Michigan didn’t look so inexperienced against “Havoc” and one could argue that was a coming of age game against a very aggressive defense. Michigan made Shaka Smart’s group look silly. The Wolverines are second in the nation in offensive efficiency and first in turnover percentage. John Beilein's offense utilizes three and four guards at once and relies heavily on the 3-point shot and creating mismatches by setting ball screens. In Burke, Michigan has arguably the most dynamic offensive player in the country. Beilein can X-and-O with the best of them. Guards are of the utmost importance in a one-and-done setting like the NCAAs and Beilein has three sweet-shooting ones on his roster in Burke, Nik Stauskas and Tim Hardaway Jr. Despite what the numbers say and after seeing other Big-12 teams in this event tank badly, we’re not convinced that the Jayhawks are that strong. And after playing for two straight weekends in front of friendly crowds at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., this trip to Arlington, Texas, might not be quite so friendly for Kansas. Wolverines move on.
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Florida 12½ over Florida Gulf CoastFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Teams that win its conference get an automatic bid into the main event. A bunch of weak clubs won this year, bumping FGCU from a likely 16-seed and an opening round date with Kansas to a 15-seed and a date with Georgetown. Many people believed that Georgetown was seeded too high and as it turns out, they were right. That was the Eagles first break. Then FGCU went up against San Diego State, which just fell apart, uncharacteristically running at a desperate tempo, hoisting 3-pointers and coughing up the ball on about one out of every four possessions. The Aztecs performance was a joke. Take nothing away from FGCU’s run to the Sweet-16 but this is the round where Cinderella stories come to die and we have no interest in wagering against a team that is going to win outright like the Gators will here.
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Florida is one of the three best teams in the nation on offense and defense, outscoring opponents by a gigantic 36 points per 100 possessions. The Gators shoot well from everywhere and they have firepower. Eight players average between 5.5 and 12.5 points per game. There are five legitimate 3-point shooters, including two game breakers, Erik Murphy and Michael Frazier II. All four players in the frontcourt rotation shoot at least 53 percent from the field. The Gators rebound strong on both ends of the floor. In short, they are an elite squad that had no sympathy for Northwestern State in their 79-47 opening round blowout. They followed that up with a 14-point win over a tough Minnesota outfit. Florida is most assuredly a blowout team. Incredibly, 26 of its 28 wins have come by 13 points or more. The Gators' only two "close" wins all season both came against Alabama by 10 and 12 points. The Eagles are a nice story but we’re sorry to say it all ends here and it ends in another Gator blowout.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, March 29

Bob Balfe

Kansas -1.5 over Michigan

For me this game comes down to one solid fact. Michigan is very young. This line up is made up mostly of freshman and I think the stage is too big tonight. Kansas has the best freshman in the country, but other than that they are a veteran team. Even more mind boggling is McLemore has been struggling and Kansas still has been rolling. Tonight he will matchup with other freshman classmates on the Michigan side which will fuel him to prove he is the best freshman in the country. Take Kansas

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Vegas Sports Informer

Florida (-13) over Florida Gulf Coast

Sorry FGCU, but your glass slipper falls off Friday night! Look for the Gators to play some tough in-your-face defense against FGCU, and if the Gators slow down the Eagles I believe this game gets out of control early in the second half. Florida just too good to be dominated by these young Eagles, and the feel-good story of Florida Gulf Coast comes to an end again Friday night. Florida is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 NCAA Tournament games, and this streak continues Friday. There are some very heavy hitters out here in Vegas that are putting big money down on the Gators. That is the side we want to be on, and right now this looks like one of the few teams that might be able to challenge Louisville for the National Championship. Go with the Gators.

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Indian Cowboy

New Orleans over Miami

If there was ever an upset to happen or a giant killer that can take down the Miami Heat, it is these New Orleans Hornets. How lovely does it set up for the NBA. Think about it. You have the young and athletic Hornet team that has won 25 games already this year (as of Wednesday afternoon of this week). This is the same team that just took down Denver's winning streak at home and now they get to take down the defending champs at home as well. New Orleans is a very talented team both down low and in the guard spot. This is the same team that has beat the likes of Denver by 24, Memphis by 7 at home, Boston by 1 as they have won 3 straight games as outright underdogs. Note that all of these teams are playoff-caliber teams and are teams that considered the NBA's elite. Look for New Orleans to once again step up with great defense, a wild atmosphere as New Orleans will ! be a solid active underdog as they likely cover this game and, yes, have a shot at winning as well as if they can take the down the Nuggets by a wide margin, they can be competitive against the Heat as well.

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