Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

Brad Wilton

Comp play for Wednesday is the Bucks plus the points in Atlanta.

This Atlanta team is like a yo-yo, they tend to go on both long winning streaks and then they follow them with long losing streaks.

Rught now the Hawks are in the midst of a 4-7 straight up run, so not too stoked to be backing them laying a few baskets, even at home. Larry Drew's team is just 13-18-2 against the spread at home this season.

As for Milwaukee, they are hoping to climb out of the #8 spot in the East and avoid a first round meeting with Miami.

The Bucks have a 2 game winning streak, and they have won 4 of their last 7 overall as they play at the Philips Arena tonight. I am looking for Milwaukee to continue their uptick.

Take the points with Milwaukee as they battle hard versus the slumping Hawks.

2♦ MILWAUKEE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

Jeff Benton

19-8 freebie run coming into Wednesday's play.

Tonight's freebie is the Over in the La Salle-Boise State contest.

The selection committee knew what they were doing matching up a pair of guard-oriented, perimeter-oriented teams in this first round meeting, as both the Explorers and the Broncos can fill it up on any given night.

Expect plenty of three-point attempts tonight, and expect the points to start to add up once these teams get a little "comfortable" in the Dayton gym.

La Salle has played on this court before, as the Dayton Flyers are in the same conference as the Explorers, so expect the Philly gang to get settled in a little quicker than the Boise bunch.

The Explorers are 8-2 Over their last 10 neutral site games, and they come into this one having played five of their last seven overall Over the posted price.

This one should feature plenty of offense.

Go Over the total in this meeting of #13 seeds tonight in Ohio.

4♦ LA SALLE-BOISE STATE OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SAN ANTONIO (-8.5) over Golden StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio beats a lot of teams at home but they absolutely destroy Golden State. Spurs have beat the Warriors 28 straight times in San Antonio going an incredible 23-4-1 against the spread in those games! Combine that kind of dominance with the fact that it is a revenge game for the Spurs who lost last month at Golden State in overtime and that San Antonio Head Coach Gregg Popovich has been livid at his team in practice this week after the Spurs let the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers shoot better than 50% from the floor against them last Saturday and you can see why we think it's a blowout in the lone star state tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

NHL PredictionsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Lightning +125FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two teams are both fighting for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  The Lightning enter with a 13-15-1 record and are 5-8 on the road.  They have won two straight games and 3 of their last 4.  The Maple Leafs are 15-12-2 on the year and 6-6-2 at home.  Toronto has struggled as of late dropping 5 straight games.  The Leafs team defense, which was a key to the Leafs early succes, has been bad lately.  Toronto has allowed 37 goals against over their last 9 games (4.11 goals against per game during that stretch).  and they've allowed 5 goals against in 3 of their last 4 games.  Toronto has played well against Tampa Bay in recent years, but the Lightning did take their only meeting so far this year 4-2 in Tampa Bay.  The Lightning have picked up their play lately, while Toronto is really struggling keeping pucks out of their net.  This game should be closer to a pick'em price in my opinion and I like the value in the underdog.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

Joe Gavazz

Stony Brook +5

In this NIT contest, I favor an underrated Stony Brook team. The Sea Wolves were the regular season champ of the American East with a YTD record 24-7 SU, 14-2 ATS. Though they didn't make the Big Dance, they will be pumped to play an A10 team in the post season. The Sea Wolves were representative in road games at Maryland and Seton Hall, and a perfect 3-0 ATS against MAAC opponents. UMass was a tired team just three days ago in their CCT loss to VCU in the semi-finals. Combined with sellout efforts against Temple and G Wash, the disappointment of not getting to the Big Dance may be too much for them to overcome against a foe they may not respect. That would be a mistake, as the Sea Wolves have a defense that allows just 57/38/31, a +5.5 rebound margin, and positives in the TO margin, and assist to TO ratio. The underdog will be the fresher team and perhaps the better team tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

Andre Gomes

Toronto / Charlotte Over 194.5

Charlotte is coming from a rare win against Washington, where their defense was still a mess even though they won the game. Washington shot 53% FG, including 9-16 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-15 3pts, but the Bobcats compensated that with a great offensive performance. Charlotte has a lot of volume on pick and rolls ball handlers and transitions and they were able to have a great offensive game in here thanks to Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson, who were very efficient on these two kinds of plays. These two players shot a combined of 16-30 FG, while Ben Gordon also played well with 7-10 FG. Charlotte shot 7-13 FG on pick and roll ball handlers with a nice 0.89 PPP and 8-12 FG on transitions with 1.56 PPP! Washington was lazy on defense and their pick and roll ball handler is definitely regressing right now, as John Wall seems to be only focused on offense right now.

The Bobcats will face Toronto tonight, so it's important to know what the Raptors's will be able to do on pick and roll ball handler defense and transition defense. Toronto is #5 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.75 PPP allowed, but they are allowing 0.80 PPP since the All Star break and 0.87 PPP on their last five games! The same is happening with their transition defense, with 1.14 PPP allowed for the season, but with 1.20 PPP allowed since the All Star break. I took Toronto on their home game against Charlotte last week, on a game where the Bobcats scored just 10 points on the fourth quarter and with eight of these points coming from free throws. Charlotte was coming from a big win over Boston, while Toronto was coming from a big road loss against the same Celtics. Therefore, Toronto was on a back to back spot, so they put a lot of defensive pressure on Charlotte's offense, who was on a clear letdown mode on offense after such a big win over Boston.

I believe the Bobcats will be much more aggressive tonight than they were at Toronto last week. They will also try to push up the tempo, just like they did it against Washington, as that improves their chances of  scoring transition points. By the way, Charlotte has an average pace at home of 91.3, while they have an average road pace of just 89.3 on the road! With this game being played at a faster pace than last week and with Toronto struggling on pick and roll ball handler defense, Charlotte has a nice spot to have another decent offensive game. Toronto's offense struggles on half court due to their lack of offensive flow, but on a fast paced game, I like their offense due to their mobility. I expect this game to eventually become a high scoring contest between two teams with no playoffs aspirations and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

Jeff Alexander

New Orleans Hornets +5

Boston has struggled against New Orleans. It has lost 4 of the last 5 in the series with the win coming by just 4 points. Plus, the Celtics will have a tough time getting up for this one after an emotional loss to the Heat. Boston is 2-11 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons. It is also 8-20 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 42-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

Dave Price

Utah Jazz +7.5

The Rockets will be motivated following an ugly 30-point loss to Golden State, but you can argue that the Jazz will be even more motivated. Utah needs this game more considering it is currently on the outside of the playoff picture. Plus, it was handed a 45-point loss the last time these two met. Losses like that aren't forgotten. Fading teams that check in off a double-digit loss in a game where they were favored by at least 6 points, provided they have won 51-60% of their games and are playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 51-18 ATS mark since 1996. This system tightens up to 17-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Washington +1.5 over PHOENIX: The Suns are off huge win vs the Lakers, while Washington is ff an embarrassing loss to the lowly Bobcats, yet this line is only at 1.5. That should tell you that Vegas is thinking very little about each teams last games. Phoenix may be looking for some revenge for a 22 point road loss to the Wizards last week, but I just don't see it. The Suns are a mess defensively right now, allowing 105 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games, with the only game they didn't allow hat much being their last game vs a Kobe-less Lakers team. During that stretch the Suns allowed 127 points to these same Wizards and Washington is starting to play some good offense, putting up 110.8 ppg in their last 4 games. Washington is also off that loss to the worst team in the league and will be looking to bounceback strong. The Suns have won just 2 of their last 8 games, while Washington has won 3 of their last 4. These teams are headed in opposite directions and I expect it to continue here.


Charlotte/ Toronto Under 195: The Bobcats put up 119 points in their last game, but that is far from the norm for this team. Charlotte comes in averaging just 93.1 ppg on the year and prior to the Washington game they had averaged just 86.5 ppg in their previous 10 games. Lets also note that prior to te Washington game The bobcats had hit the century mark just 5 times sine January 9th and in the next game they went on to average just 82.4 ppg in their next game, while not scoring more than 93 points in any of those games. The Raptor offense comes in struggling as well as they have averaged just 93.7 ppg in their last 3 games and they have averaged just 94.8 ppg in their last 7 games vs the Bobcats. Neither defense is any good, but I just don't see bad offense stealing the show in this one. The three games between these teams have averaged just 180.7 ppg and I expect no more than 185 in this one.

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