College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 12

College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 12

College Knowledge

-- Princeton lost last two games, at Yale/Brown to hand Harvard the Ivy title, so this game is meaningless; Tigers (-16) beat Penn 65-53 at home in Ivy opener Jan 12, making 11-22 behind arc. Princeton is 3-3 on road, winning by 18-25-19 points. Last three Princeton games, five of last six Penn games went over the total. Quakers won four of last seven games with a home win over Harvard, after a dismal 5-18 start.

-- Seton Hall (-5) beat South Florida 55-47 at home Jan 23; Pirates made 58% of shots inside arc, survived 17 (-11) turnovers, but they've lost 10 of 11 games since then are turning ball over 23.9% of time. USF is 2-1 in last three games, after losing previous 10; they've won Big East tourney games three years in row. Seton Hall won first tourney games three of last four years. 13 of last 19 USF games stayed under total.
-- DePaul (-1.5) beat Rutgers 75-69 at home Feb 16, outscoring Scarlet Knight 11-3 over last 2:42 for its only win in last 16 games- they're 1-5 in Big East tournament games, with only win in '09. Rutgers lost four of five in this event last six seasons, winning in OT in '11. Over is 9-3-1 in last 13 DePaul games; five of last seven Rutgers games stayed under the total. Scarlet Knights lost 11 of their last 13 games overall.

-- Wyoming was 12-0 when Martinez (42% on 3's) got tossed after fight off-campus; they're 4-12 in MWC, losing last five games, four by 11+ points, but they beat Nevada twice, 59-48 (+1.5) in Reno Jan 12, 68-48 (-6.5) at home Feb 13. Cowboys are 0-3 in this event last three seasons; this is Nevada's first MWC tourney. Wolf Pack lost its last seven games, six by 11+ points. Eight of last ten Nevada games went over.

-- Texas State beat Seattle twice this year, 86-83 (+7.5) on road Jan 26, 67-65 (-1) at home Feb 28, despite trailing both games at half. Bobcats are 6-7 in last 13 games after a 4-14 start. Seattle lost 16 of last 19 games after starting season 5-5; their last six losses were all by 6 or less points. Seven of last nine Seattle games stayed under the total. Seattle turns ball over over 25.4% of time, makes only 62.2% from foul line. Not good.
-- San Jose State lost its best player Kinney when they were 9-6; they're 0-13 without him, allowing 86.3 ppg in last three, losing last two games by 27-23 points. Spartans (+4) won 80-67 in San Antonio Dec 31- they made 59% inside arc, 9-18 outside it. Rematch was rained out due to San Jose's gym having leaky roof. Roadrunners are 3-2 in last five games, but started season 5-19; they lost last two games by 16-20 points.

-- Valparaiso/Wright State both won buzzer beaters last game; Crusaders swept Wright State this year, winning 69-63 (-9) at home Jan 19, 68-61 (-1) in Dayton Feb 12- they made 57/61% inside arc in the two games. Valpo lost this game at home LY to Detroit; they're most #1 team in US in experience, #5 in eFG%- they've won nine of last 10 games. Wright won last three games overall, three of last four true road games.

-- Home side won both North Dakota State-South Dakota State games this year; Bison (-7) won 65-62 at home, then lost rematch 69-53 (+2). All five Jackrabbit starters played 36+ minutes last night in game they trailed at half- their two subs played total of 12 minutes. Over is 10-2 in North Dakota State's last dozen games. Bison wore down shorthanded Western Illinois for its fourth win in row; three starters played 33:00+.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 12

Big East Tourney: DePaul vs. Rutgers, Seton Hall vs. South Florida
By Covers.com

DePaul vs. Rutgers (-3, 146)

Rutgers will likely have a little more on its mind than avenging a loss to DePaul last month when they meet in the opening round of the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. Despite a second-half scoring explosion from Myles Mack, the Scarlet Knights were unable to overcome the season-ending loss of leading scorer Eli Carter to a fractured right fibula in a 75-69 setback on Feb. 16 against the Blue Demons – one of DePaul’s two conference victories. The loss to the Blue Demons triggered a five-game losing streak, which ended in Friday’s 56-51 win at Seton Hall.

DePaul, which ranks last in the Big East in scoring and field-goal percentage defense, is in the midst of a six-game skid, losing by an average of 17.2 points. The Blue Demons are also searching for their first win in the Big East tournament since defeating Cincinnati in 2009, but have defeated Rutgers in each of their last two meetings. The winner of this contest will meet Notre Dame in the second round.

ABOUT DEPAUL (11-20): With two 3-pointers Saturday against Pittsburgh, junior Brandon Young (16.6 points, 4.6 assists) became the 17th player in school history to reach 100. As a result, he also became the first Blue Demon to record 1,200 points, 400 assists and 100 3-pointers for his career. Young and Connecticut’s Shabazz Napier were the only players in the conference to finish the regular season among the top eight in both points and assists. Cleveland Melvin did not start for the first time all season against Pittsburgh, but he posted his 100th career block - only the ninth player in school history to do so.

ABOUT RUTGERS (14-15): Mack has been one of the bright spots for the Scarlet Knights, who fell off after beginning the season 12-4, including a 3-2 start in the conference. The sophomore ranks first among the league’s guards in field goal percentage (48 percent), leads the Big East in 3-point field goal percentage (45.1) and is second in conference in free throw percentage (87.8). Mack followed up his 28-point outburst against DePaul with 24 against Villanova, but averaged only 11 points over the last four games. Jerome Seagears and Kadeem Jack initially increased their point production in Carter’s absence, but are averaging only 14.4 points combined over the last three contests.

TRENDS:

* Blue Demons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

TIP-INS:

1. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by six points or less, including the last three.

2. DePaul’s opponents are shooting 54.6 percent from the field and averaging 82 points during its losing streak.

3. Rutgers averaged 59.6 points during league play – a sharp drop from its 74.3-point average during its non-conference schedule.


Seton Hall vs. South Florida (Pick, 116)

South Florida will attempt to continue its late-season resurgence on Tuesday when it meets Seton Hall in the opening round of the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden. The Bulls resided in the conference basement for most of the season, with a 55-47 home win over Georgetown on Jan. 23 serving as its only league win through 15 games. However, South Florida snapped a 10-game losing streak with consecutive victories over DePaul and Connecticut before falling in overtime at Cincinnati to close out the regular season.

The Pirates suffered their own misery during the conference schedule, enduring a nine-game slide following a win over South Florida in the teams’ only meeting on Jan. 23. Seton Hall ended its losing streak with a home victory over Villanova on Feb. 25, but closed out the regular season with consecutive losses to match the Bulls’ 3-15 conference record. The winner of this contest will meet Syracuse in the second round.

ABOUT SETON HALL (14-17): The Pirates have been ravaged by injuries as Fuquan Edwin (16.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.5 steals) is one of only four players that have played in all 31 games. Despite a constantly-changing supporting cast, Edwin ranks seventh in the conference in scoring, 17th in rebounding and second in steals. The Pirates averaged 15.9 turnovers and 20.7 fouls during conference play – both league-high marks – somewhat offsetting their Big East-best 135 3-pointers. In the January meeting, Seton Hall survived a minus-11 turnover margin by shooting 52.5 percent from the field – its best effort in Big East play.

ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (12-18): Much like last year, Victor Rudd (12.3 points, 7.1 rebounds) is closing out the season with a flurry, averaging 17.4 points and 8.6 rebounds over his last seven games since returning from a groin injury. Over that same stretch, the junior forward has posted three of his team-leading seven double-doubles. In their victories over the Blue Demons and Huskies, the Bulls – who finished last in the conference in field goal percentage (39.4) and 10th in 3-point field goal percentage (32) – shot 50 percent from the floor and 46.8 percent beyond the arc.

TRENDS:

* Pirates are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.

TIP-INS:

1. South Florida used 15 different starting lineups during the regular season while Seton Hall was forced to go with 14.

2. After scoring at least 70 points in 11 of its first 15 games, Seton Hall hasn’t reached that mark since.

3. The Bulls collected a season-high 11 steals in the first meeting.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 12

Tuesday's Championships
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

It is Championship Week in men's college basketball as all week long teams will be looking to punch an automatic ticket to this year's NCAA Tournament by winning their conference tournament. The following is a closer look at three championship games on Tuesday night's slate along with some facts and figures to help handicap the games.

Northeast Conference

Mount St. Mary's entered the Northeast Conference Tournament as the No.5 seed after posting an 11-7 straight-up record in conference play that included a seven-game winning streak to close-out the regular season. The Mountaineers stayed hot with a first-round 75-69 win over Bryant as 3½-point underdog and a stunning 69-60 upset of No.1 Robert Morris as 8 ½-point underdogs in Saturday's semifinals. The total stayed UNDER in both those games.

For a team that averaged 69.8 points a game this year, it found its scoring groove at just the right time with 73 points or more in 10 of its last 12 games. Rashad Whack has led the way with a team-high 14 points with Sam Prescott chipping-in 10.8 points and 4.1 rebounds a game.

The LUI Brooklyn Blackbirds went 6-2 down the stretch to secure the No.3 seed in the Northeast with an overall conference record of 12-6. They went 19-13 SU overall and 11-2 at home. The Blackbirds began their run to the title game with a 91-83 victory over Quinnipiac as 2½-point favorites before pulling off an upset of their own in a 94-82 romp over No.2 seed Wagner as six-point underdogs on the road.

Scoring has obviously not been an issue for this team with an average of 79.1 points a game, but its defense has been very suspect at times; allowing an average of 76.6 points a game on the other end of the court. The game plan in this matchup could be to simply outscore the Mountaineers behind Jamal Olasewere and CJ Garner, who have combined for 34.6 points a game this year.

These two split the season series with each winning once at home. There were no posted lines for either of those games.

Horizon League

Wright State finished third in the Horizon League at 10-6 as part of an overall record of 19-11 SU. It went 16-11 against the spread this season and the total went OVER in five of its last eight regular season games. The Raiders eliminated Youngstown State 66-59 in its first tournament game as 3 ½-point favorites before taking out No.2 Detroit 56-54 as 7½-point underdogs in Saturday's semifinals.

The Raiders would never be thought of as an offensive juggernaut with an average of 61.9 points a game while shooting 43.6 percent from the field. Cole Darling was the only player scoring in double figures but he has been lost for this game with a foot injury. The real strength of this team lies in a defense that is holding opponents to 58.4 points a game.

Valparaiso won 13 of its 16 conference games this season to claim the No.1 seed for this tournament that gave it a bye all the way to the semifinals. From there, the Crusaders hammered-out a tight 70-69 victory over No.4 Green Bay as nine-point favorites after crushing the Phoenix by 19 points as two-point road underdogs in their regular season finale. Overall, they are now 25-7 SU and 17-11-1 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last four games.

Ryan Broekhoff is Valpo's leading scorer with 16.2 points a game while shooting 46.1 percent from the field. He also leads the team in rebounds with 7.4 a game. Overall, the Crusaders are averaging 72 points a game while shooting 48.8 percent from the floor.

Valparaiso won both meetings this season SU, but they split 1-1 ATS. It has now won the five games in this series SU, but Wright State holds the edge ATS at 3-1-1. The total went OVER in both games this year.

Summit League

The South Dakota Jackrabbits came into this tournament as the top seed in the conference and they are now just one win away from not only winning the title, but punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. They earned the Summit League regular season title with a 13-3 record in conference play and are 24-9 SU overall. They went 14-12 ATS and the total stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games. South Dakota State hammered IUPUI 66-49 as an 18-point favorite to start this tournament off. In Monday night's semifinals, it crushed IP-Fort Wayne 72-56 as an 8½-point favorite.

Nate Wolters has been a force this season for the Jackrabbits with an average of 22.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists a game. They are averaging 73.9 points a game and shooting 47 percent from the field while defensively, they have held teams to an average of 66.3 points a game.

Coming out of the other side of the bracket is the No.3 North Dakota State Bison, who beat Kansas City 69-58 as a 16-point favorite in its first tournament game and then rolled over Western Illinois 55-43 as a six-point favorite to earn a spot in the championship. The Bison went 12-4 in conference play and are now 24-8 SU overall. They are 3-5 ATS in their last eight games but still over .500 ATS overall at 17-12. The total has now stayed UNDER in seven of their last nine games.

If North Dakota State is going to pull off the upset in this game, it will most likely be behind a defense that is holding its opponents to an average of just 55.9 points a game. Taylor Braun leads the team in scoring with 15.3 points a game, and as a whole, the Bison are averaging 67 points a game.

The Jackrabbits have gotten the best of things in this matchup recently with a 3-1 SU record in the last four meetings and a perfect 4-0 mark ATS. The only setback during this run was a late December 65-62 loss as seven-point road underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER in the last three games.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 12

Tuesday Cliff Notes
By Dave Essler

Princeton at Penn: Obviously zero implications as far as playing post-season for these teams, although Princeton may get into one of the smaller tournaments. The one thing here is that P'ton is looking for, and aware of, the fact that a win would get them double-digit Ivy League wins for the fourth straight year. Penn did beat Harvard here a couple of weeks ago when Harvard still very much needed to win, so winning here, seeing as how since P'ton was eliminated they've lost two straight road games, is not out of the question. Penn has no size and less experience, while 'P'ton has both. Amazingly Penn has the #2 rated defense in terms of efficiency in the Ivy League, and is best inside. Their "reasonable" three point defense will be tested since Princeton shoots almost 46% from behind the arc. I certainly don't like the fact that Penn turns the ball over and is just not a great rebounding team, so any bet on Penn would be because it's their last home game, and we'd assume Princeton just doesn't care. I tend to think that Princeton very much does care, but whether they can muster the effort remains to be seen. The big thing, potentially, is that Penn is going to want to run and has a deep, deep, bench, and obviously a blowout loss to contend with. They did play reasonably well in that game after falling behind big and early, but they just let Princeton score every time they touched the ball. With some regression, I do have to lean to the home dog.

DePaul v. Rutgers: First round of the Big East and obviously at Madison Square Garden, which you would think would give Rutgers SOMEWHAT of a crowd advantage, but how many people really will go to this game. One of DePaul's two Conference wins came against Rutgers, so I've got to believe that that's the motivation for the Scarlet Knights, who have played four of their last six games on the road, actually winning the season Finale at Seton Hall. Even in all those losses, they really didn't play as badly as their record indicated. DePaul on the other hand has pretty much been getting crushed every night, and I said mid-season that that would happen with an Oliver Purnell team. They play such a wicked pace that they just burn out, just like his Clemson teams did. As much as it pains me to lay points, I simply cannot take DePaul here. They just don't (can't) play enough defense, are smaller, and do not get to the FT line. Rutgers can have turnover issues and if the pace is more to DePaul's liking (fast) then I suppose I could be swayed, aided by some early money on them. One could look at it is who the hell is Rutgers to be -3 to anyone in the Big East. Rutgers offensive rebounding may be the key to this game, which also slows it down. Either way, I'd play the ML anyways.

South Florida v/ Seton Hall: By now we know what Seton does, which is shoot three point shots. The other thing they do with regularity is turn the ball over. Seton beat them by eight in a relatively low scoring game at home earlier this season. My slight problem with South Florida is that they haven't won a game away from the Sun Dome since January 2nd, which obviously includes all of the Big East schedule. My one problem with Seton Hall is that THEY haven't won a game away from the Prudential Center since January 2nd. What a coincidence. At least their road win was against a Big East team (DePaul by one). We'd have to assume that Seton Hall would have any crowd noise there might be, and certainly they had far less to travel. I have to wonder if the snow and cold and travel really has USF ready to get back on a plane. Seton will work a little quicker, and this will simply be a sloppy three point shooting contest. USF has defended them better than Seton, and Seton is much more sloppy with the ball. Since USF is not nearly as sloppy with the ball, they could win here, if they decide to play. That's what we need to determine.

Nevada v/Wyoming: Which is in Las Vegas. I was going to leave this one for S-Dog, but f'k it. Wyoming's lost five straight and their only road win since Martinez was suspended was at Nevada, strangely enough, who they beat both times they met this season, the last time pretty badly. Nevada an equal mess, and perhaps a not-as-well coached mess. But, here's why I might consider Wyoming. Not just the revenge, but it's the first season Nevada has played int eh MWC. I know they're from Nevada, but Reno is not Las Vegas. What does concern me is the number of times Nevada gets to the line, however, as their PPG from the line are the highest percentage in the nation. I simply cannot back a team that shoots less than 60% from the line, and that would be Wyoming. With that in mind, I guess I'd have to go with Nevada after all, at least for now.Surprise Perhaps taking a few points and avenging two losses may be safer, if we bet this game. Certainly with a low scoring game I can see using Nevada in a teaser.

Wright State at Valpo: Yes, AT Valpo because that's where the Conference Tournament is held, which certainly means Valpo will be favored by more than they might otherwise be. They've (Wright State) have played two games against Valpo, losing by six and seven points. Not to be overlooked is the fact that Valpo has only had to play one game, while Wright has played two. Wright DID just beat Detroit and Valpo hung on to beat Wisconsin GB by only one, again, at home. Valpo lost at home to Detroit, and very early in the year lost at home to Loyola Chicago, while five of Wright's ten wins came on the road. I've always loved the way Wright plays defense, and liked to fade three point shooting teams, so I may go the non-public way here. Wright's concern, for me, is that they aren't a great rebounding team, and Valpo may well look to push this pace. Downside to that is Valpo is the most experienced team in the nation. Couple that with the fact that this experience group probably vividly remembers losing badly to Detroit in this game (again, at home) last season, which could well be the final straw. Wright won't go without a fight, but since they create the most turnovers in the Conference, we may go "under" here. We'll see.

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