College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, March 7

College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, March 7

College Knowledge

-- Virginia (-6) beat Florida State 56-36 Jan 19; Seminoles were 1-15 on arc, Cavaliers 7-13, as UVa ended 7-game series skid- they've lost seven games in row here, by 19-5-14-2-11-7-3 points. ACC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 16-9 vs spread. Virginia is 2-3 in last five games, getting upset at BC after beating Duke; they're 2-5 in ACC road. FSU is 2-5 in last seven games, 3-5-1 vs spread as an ACC underdog.
-- Kentucky won five of last six games vs Georgia, winning four of last five visits here, winning by 5-23-12-13 points, but Wildcats lost all three road games since Noel got hurt, losing by 17-30-13 points. UK split last six games, turning ball over 23%+ of time in losses, less than 20% in the wins. Georgia won four of last five home games- they covered 10 of last 11 overall. SEC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 13-9 vs spread.
-- Butler is 2-3 in last five games, scoring 61-52 points in losing last two, to St Louis/VCU; Bulldogs are 2-3 in last five road games. UMass is 4-1 in last five home games, losing to Temple by a point; they've scored 77+ points in six of its last seven games. A-16 home teams are 4-13 if spread is 2 or less points. UMass plays fastest tempo in league; Butler has best FG% defense in league; can Minutemen get easy hoops against them?
-- Colorado (+6.5) outscored Oregon 8-0 over last 4:26 to edge Ducks by point Feb 7, Buffs' third win in last four series games, with all three wins by a point. Oregon is 5-1 since then; PG Artis played 12 minutes in last game, after missing previous nine games (foot). Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-19 vs spread. Colorado is 8-3 in last 11games, 4-1 in last five at home- underdogs covered five of their seven home games.

-- Louisiana Tech won its last 18 games, with five of seven WAC road wins by 6 or less points; Tech (-5.5) beat New Mexico State 81-72 Dec 31, just its second series win in last 13 series games- they lost seven in a row in Las Cruces, losing last two by 18-11 points. Aggies won all seven WAC home games, with last three home wins by 2-3-4 (4-3 as favorite at home). WAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-11 vs spread.
-- Denver won eight games in row, 15 of last 16, with three of last four by 6 or less points; Pioneers (+2) won 50-35 in Arlington Dec 31- they were 11-35 from arc that day, only 6-10 inside arc. Pioneers held UTA to 27.7% from floor, forced 18 turnovers. Mavericks have now won last six WAC games- they're 5-2-1 vs spread as WAC dog. WAC double digit home favorites are 7-11 against the spread.
-- Michigan State won four in row, eight of last 10 vs Wisconsin, beating Badgers 49-47 (+5) Jan 22, in brickfest where Wisconsin shot 29.6% on both 2/3 pointers, 7-18 from foul line. Big Dozen home favorites of 6 or less points are 15-8 vs spread. Spartans lost last three games, are 3-3 as home favorites, with four of six home wins by 10+ points. Badgers won six of last eight games, but they they've lost three of last five on road.
-- Pacific's five starters shot 5-22 (22.7%) from floor in 68-59 loss Feb 20 at Cal-Irvine, Anteaters' third win in last four series games. UCI won here LY, after losing its previous four visits to Stockton by 6-10-13-24 points. Pacific is 7-0 at home in league, 4-3 as home favorite, with last five home wins by 7+. Big West home favorites of less than 5 points are 14-21 vs spread. Irvine lost last five times they allowed 70+ points.
-- Long Beach (-8) beat Cal-Davis 71-65 Feb 20, after trailing by 11 in second half; 49ers won eight in row, 15 of last 16 series games, winning last seven visits here, last two by 24-20 points. First ESPN game for the Aggies, who've won five of last six games, last three by 1-7-3. Big West home teams are 11-16 if spread is 3 or less points. Davis makes 40.2% behind arc (#8 in nation). 49ers lost last two games, by 8-3 points.

-- Home side won both Drake-Bradley games this year; Drake had 38-17 edge from foul line in OT win Feb 20, after losing by 10 in Peoria, with a -10 (18-8) turnover ratio. Bradley lost five of last seven games, eight of last nine on road. Drake won three of last four games, but lost six of last nine on road. Bulldogs have only one MVC tourney win last four years. MVC underdogs are 20-14 if spread is 5 or less points.
-- Southern Illinois coach Hinson was formerly coach at Missouri State; Salukis won six of last eight games, winning last three by 6-6-3. Home side won both SIU-Missouri State games, with Bears 10-17 from arc in 70-59 home win, 2-12 in 62-54 road loss. MVC underdogs are 20-14 if spread is 5 or less points. Last six State games were decided by 8 or less points- they've lost seven of last eight games away from home.
-- San Diego lost nine of last 12 games after starting 4-0 in WCC; they've won five games in row vs Pepperdine, beating Waves by 7-12 points in this year's games. Pepperdine lost four in row, nine of last 12; three of its four WCC wins were by 4 or less points. Toreros won first tourney game seven of last eight years. WCC favorites are 8-6 if spread is 5 or less points. San Diego just beat Waves 76-69 five days ago.
-- LMU snapped 14-game losing streak with win over Portland last nite, while San Francisco had night off; Lions lost twice to USF this year, by 7-2 points. LMU played three guys 35+ minutes last night, with couple subs playing 17-27 minutes. Dons won five of last seven games; they're 3-2 in this event last two years, after winning only once in previous six WCC tourneys. USF beat LMU 67-60 in this event LY, after getting swept by Lions during season.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, March 7

Games to Watch
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

No. 22 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 10 Michigan State Spartans

Wisconsin took a major step backwards this past Sunday with a stunning 69-56 loss to Purdue as a 14½-point home favorite. The loss dropped the Badgers to 11-5 SU in conference play and pretty much ended any shot of winning a share Big Ten regular season title. They are 20-9 SU overall and despite going 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games still well under .500 ATS at 11-15-1. The total has gone over in six of their last eight games. Wisconsin is averaging 67 points a game while holding its competition to just 55.8 points.

Michigan State’s Big Ten title hopes also came to an end this past Sunday as well with a 58-57 loss to rival Michigan as a five-point road underdog. It was actually the Spartans third-straight setback after falling to Indiana and Ohio State in their previous two games. They are now 22-7 SU (11-13-2 ATS) overall and 11-5 SU in conference play. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last seven games. Gary Harris and Keith Appling are each averaging just over 13 points a game and the team as a whole is shooting 46.4 percent from the floor.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, March 7

Thursday's Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Kentucky at Georgia

BetOnline.com opened Kentucky (20-9 straight up, 10-16 against the spread) as a four-point road ‘chalk.’

UK is on the bubble with two regular-season games remaining, including a home tilt vs. Florida this weekend. The defending national champions are No. 51 in the RPI Rankings with only one win (at home vs. Missouri) over a Top 50 opponent. The Wildcats are 1-4 against the RPI Top 50, 6-9 versus the RPI Top 100.

John Calipari’s team saw its three-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s costly 73-60 loss at Arkansas as a 2.5-point road underdog. UK committed 18 turnovers, got beat 43-36 on the boards, missed 10 free throws and hit only 3-of-14 shots from 3-point land. Archie Goodwin finished with a team-high 14 points in the losing effort. Willie Cauley-Stein had a double-double with 13 points, 10 boards and four blocked shots.

Georgia (14-15 SU, 15-10 ATS) is on fire for our purposes, posting an incredible 10-1 spread record in its last 11 games. The Bulldogs are coming off Saturday’s 78-68 win over Tennessee as two-point home underdogs. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored 25 points, grabbed nine rebounds, made four steals and dished out a pair of assists. Charles Mann added 18 points and eight assists without committing a turnover. Mann put the game on ice with his free-throw shooting down the stretch, finishing 12-of-14 from the charity stripe.

Mark Fox’s team is 11-6 SU and 7-6 ATS at home inside of Stegeman Coliseum. The Bulldogs have won four of their last five both SU and ATS at home.

UGA is led by Caldwell-Pope, a sophomore guard with a future at the next level. ‘KCP’ is currently listed as the final pick (#30) in the first round of NBADraft.net’s 2013 mock draft. The former McDonald’s All-American is averaging team-highs in scoring (18.0 points per game), rebounding (6.9 RPG), field-goal percentage (44.1%) and steals (2.1 per game).

Since losing its best player Nerlens Noel to a season-ending ACL tear, Kentucky has gone 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS.

Kentucky owns a 1-4 spread record in five games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, Georgia has a 1-2 record both SU and ATS as a home underdog.

The ‘under’ is 13-9-1 overall for UGA, 9-3 in its 12 home games with a total.

The ‘over’ is 14-11 overall for UK, 4-1 in its last five games. However, the ‘Cats have seen the ‘under’ go 6-4 in their 10 true road assignments.

The road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 UK-UGA games.

ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Oregon at Colorado

BetOnline.com opened Colorado (19-9 SU, 15-11 ATS) as a 3.5-point favorite.

Oregon (23-6 SU, 11-15-1 ATS) is No. 48 in the RPI Rankings, going 3-4 against RPI Top 50 opponents and 8-5 versus RPI Top 100 foes.

Dana Altman’s team has won five of its last six games but is mired in an abysmal 3-10-1 ATS slide. Oregon is coming off Saturday’s 85-75 comeback win over Oregon St. as a 10-point home ‘chalk.’ The Ducks trailed the Beavers 41-34 at intermission but they rallied to outscore their arch rivals 51-34 in the second half. Carlos Emory scored a team-high 21 points, while Arsalan Kazemi produced 17 points and 12 rebounds.

CU has won 11 of its 13 home games, going 6-5 ATS at home. The Buffaloes are 3-3 ATS in their six games as single-digit home favorites.

Thad Boyle’s squad had won five of its last six games before dropping a 62-46 decision Saturday at California as a five-point underdog. Xavier Johnson had 14 points and seven rebounds in CU’s losing effort.

Colorado is led by sophomore guard Spencer Dinwiddie and junior forward Andre Roberson. Dinwiddie averages 15.2 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game, while Roberson is averaging 10.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.2 steals and 1.4 blocked shots per contest.

CU is on the right side of the bubble and is probably safe thanks to an RPI of 30 with a 4-4 record against Top 50 opponents. The Buffs have a 9-8 ledger against the RPI Top 100.

When these schools met in Eugene on Feb. 7, Colorado captured a 48-47 win over the Ducks as a seven-point road underdog. Roberson led CU’s balanced offense with a team-high 10 points and 13 rebounds. Emory and E.J. Singler scored 14 points apiece for Oregon.

Oregon freshman point guard Dominic Artis missed nine games and more than a month of action with a foot injury before coming off the bench and contributing in Saturday’s come-from-behind win over Oregon St. Artis was limited to 12 minutes of playing time, but he produced six points by draining both of his attempts from beyond the arc.

The ‘under’ has cashed in eight consecutive games for Colorado to improve to 14-5 overall. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the Buffs’ seven home games with a total.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

When I was at Harrah’s Casino during Final Four weekend in New Orleans last year, I walked past Arkansas head coach Mike Anderson and Missouri head coach Frank Haith standing against the wall chatting. About an hour later as I was playing blackjack, I noticed the two of them walk past my table. I found that a bit odd and tweeted as much the following day. To run into each other and have a quick cordial convo was one thing, but it seemed strange that they were still hanging out an hour later. Anyway, after Haith had to be restrained by his assistants from going after Anderson in Tuesday’s blowout victory in Columbia, I found it even odder that they were hanging out last year. Obviously, things have changed since then. Here’s to a rubber game between the two schools in Nashville next weekend at the SEC Tournament.

Alabama provided me with one of my most fortunate winners of the season in Tuesday’s 87-83 loss at Ole Miss as a five-point underdog. This was the definition of a wrong-side winner for the Crimson Tide, which trailed by 15 with 3:42 left and by 10 with 49 seconds remaining. What made the backdoor cover even luckier was how the Rebels were clutch at the free-throw line when the foul-fest began. Nevertheless, trading 3’s for a pair at the stripe worked for ‘Bama backers thanks to six 3-pointers in the last 1:52 of the game. Trevor Lacey knocked down three of the late treys.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, March 7

Thursday's Top 25 NCAAB Betting Notes
By Covers.com

Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes (-4, 126)


Oregon continues its run at the Pac-12 regular-season title when it visits Colorado on Thursday. The No. 25 Ducks are tied for first place with UCLA with two games remaining and will win the crown if they win both games, no matter how UCLA or third-place California fare. The Buffaloes are tied for fifth place and seeking a regular-season sweep of the Ducks. Colorado notched a 48-47 victory on Oregon’s homecourt on Feb. 7.

The Buffaloes are 2-2 over their last four games after suffering a 16-point loss to California last Saturday. Colorado’s NCAA tournament prospects would be bolstered by a second victory over Oregon. The Buffaloes close the regular season by hosting Oregon State on Saturday. Oregon is 6-3 on the road entering the two-game swing against Colorado and then Utah on Saturday. The Ducks have won five of their last six games and haven’t played since beating Oregon State on Feb. 28. Oregon won its lone meeting against UCLA and holds the tiebreaker edge with the Bruins.

ABOUT OREGON (23-6, 12-4 Pac-12, 11-15-1 ATS): Senior forward Carlos Emory scored a career-best 21 points against Oregon State and is averaging 16.6 points over the last five games. Emory is shooting 54.4 percent over the hot stretch. Freshman point guard Dominic Artis played 12 minutes off the bench against the Beavers after missing the previous nine games with a foot injury. Artis averages 10 points per game and could see more action with junior Johnathan Loyd battling an illness this week. Artis ranks fourth on the squad behind senior forward E.J. Singler (11.5), Emory (11.2) and freshman guard Damyean Dotson (11 per game). Dotson injured his hip in the Oregon State contest and is expected to play against Colorado. Senior forward Arsalan Kazemi (9.4 points, 9.9 rebounds) has eight double-doubles this season.

ABOUT COLORADO (19-9, 9-7 Pac-12, 15-11-0 ATS): The Buffaloes seek a fast rebound from a poor effort against California in which they set season lows for points scored (46) and field-goal percentage (23.1). Freshman forward Josh Scott was back in the lineup after missing two games with a concussion and had 11 rebounds for his third double-digit effort on the boards. Scott ranks third on the Buffaloes in scoring at 11.2 per game. Sophomore guard Spencer Dinwiddie averages a team-best 15.2 points, sophomore guard Askia Booker contributes 12.8 points and junior forward Andre Roberson averages 10.8 points and leads the nation in rebounding (11.5). Roberson ranks second in school history with 1,019 career rebounds and is 36 away from surpassing leader Stephane Pelle (1999-2003).

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
* Buffaloes are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Ducks last five road games.
* Under is 12-3 in Buffaloes last 15 home games.

TIP-INS:

1. Colorado has won the last two meetings and holds a 6-3 series edge against the Ducks.

2. Dinwiddie has topped 20 points seven times this season.

3. Singler and Loyd each have 105 career steals, tying for 10th on Oregon’s all-time steals list.


Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans (-4.5, 116)

Seeding for the conference tournament — and perhaps even a shot at a conference title — will be on the line when No. 12 Michigan State hosts No. 21 Wisconsin in a Big Ten showdown Thursday. Both teams are one game behind league leader Indiana in the loss column and caught in a logjam for the Nos. 2-5 seeds. It's the fourth consecutive meeting with a ranked team for Michigan State, which is trying to snap a three-game losing streak.

The Badgers are looking to bounce back after having a three-game winning streak snapped with a 69-56 home loss to Purdue. It was a rare home defeat for Wisconsin, which closes the regular season with road contests at Michigan State and Penn State. The Spartans have won the past four meetings, including a 49-47 slugfest earlier this season in Madison. Michigan State has won 32 of its last 34 games at Breslin Center.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (20-9, 11-5 Big Ten, 11-15-1 ATS): The Badgers are experienced, especially in the frontcourt where three seniors start. Big man Jared Berggren (11.6 points, 7 rebounds) and junior guard Ben Brust (11.3 points, 5.4 rebounds) are the team's top scorers, but freshman reserve Sam Dekker is an outstanding outside shooter and one of the top sixth men in the Big Ten. Dekker has scored in double figures in six straight games. The Badgers' real strength, though, is their defense. They hold opponents to 55.8 points per game (ninth in the nation) and 39.4 percent shooting (42nd).

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (22-7, 11-5, 11-13-2 ATS): The Spartans also are terrific at the defensive end, holding opponents to 59.8 points (32nd) and 39.3 percent shooting (40th), but they also boast four double-digit scorers and another on the cusp. Outstanding freshman Gary Harris (13.3 points) and junior Keith Appling (13.2 points) form one of the top backcourt duos in the Big Ten, and junior forward Adreian Payne (10.1 points, 7.4 rebounds) has come up big lately. Payne has six double-doubles this season and has averaged 15.3 points and 12 rebounds over the past four games.

TRENDS:


* Home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Michigan St.
* Badgers are 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings in Michigan St.
* Badgers are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.

TIP-INS:

1. The home team has won 13 of the past 15 meetings played on campus, with the exceptions being Michigan State's wins at Wisconsin the past two seasons.

2. Wisconsin has won its past two road games against top-10 teams, beating No. 8 Ohio State in 2012 and No. 2 Indiana earlier this season.

3. Payne has 102 blocks, the fourth-most in school history. He needs four more to tie Delvon Roe for third all-time.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, March 7

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com 

Oregon at Colorado

After Buffs eked out a one-point win against Oregon last month in Eugene the Ducks will look to get their revenge when the two square off Thursday night in Boulder, Colorado. The Ducks winning the Civil War matchup over Oregon State last Thursday only Colorado, Utah stand in it's way to a regular season conference title. E.J. Singler (11.5) leading a quad of double-digit scorers has Ducks netting 72.5 PPG and sitting at 23-6 (11-15-1 ATS) on the campaign, 12-4 (5-10-1 ATS) in the Pac 12 including 5-2 (3-4 ATS) in conference road games. Buffs off a loss at California return home 19-9 (15-11 ATS) on the season, 9-7 (8-8 ATS) in the Pac 12, 5-2 (3-4 ATS) hosting conference rivals. Colorado lead by four players hitting double-digits averaging 68.0 per contest have enjoyed success vs Ducks since joining the Pac 12 moving to 3-1 (2-2 ATS) in the series after the earlier 48-47 victory. The betting market has Colorado 3 point favorites knowing Buffs are on a 4-1 ATS stretch in home games against teams with a winning road record, 20-9 ATS following a non-cover the previous game and that Ducks are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Pac 12.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, March 7

Thursday Cliff Notes
By Dave Essler

La Tech at New Mexico State: La Tech is a projected #13 seed, perhaps a tad higher if the win the WAC, while New Mexico State is out, unless of course THEY win the WAC, which may mean beating LaTech twice. I do know before looking much further that LaTech has played the weakest Conference Schedule, and their non-conference schedule wasn't great either, so they ARE beatable. And the DO play one more road game at Denver this weekend, and Denver is in the same position as New Mexico State, so they (LaTech) WILL get both teams' best efforts. Since playing both NMSU and Denver back around the end of the year, they (La Tech) haven't played a good team on the road, period. Having said there there is almost no chance I can take them here, especially given that NMSU's only home loss was to New Mexico.

Oregon at Colorado: Well, we know Artis is back and we know Oregon is in, and we know that Colorado is not. So, how can we build a case for the Buffalo's. Well, first thing is that Oregon has played the 12th worst (the worst) SOS in the Pac-12 and Colorado has played the fourth toughest. Ducks would surely LIKE the number one see, but I'm not sure at what expense, because there's not a huge benefit. Buff's at home in Conference play lost to UCLA by three and ASU in overtime, so winning this game is not out of the question. The only thing that might concern me is that their final home game is only two days away, so it is going to take some focus. They did give Oregon a game (48-47 loss) but that was without Artis. Colorado is super-young and under sized here, and I just don't know if their offense can score enough points. They'll slow the game down, or try to, and I look back to a game Colorado lost at UTEP, another slow team, in triple OT, I believe. Usually, I'd be all over the home team here, but this one's ALL about motivation, and without really having a handle on how Altman wants to play this, it's tough. I do think it stays under the total, because I doubt Oregon, if they're ahead, don't rest people, and don't think Colorado can score enough.

Butler at UMass: Well, the last Conference meeting between these two already. That would tell be that UMass is probably pissed and it's their last home game and Amherst is a tough place to play, for no other reason than it's a tough place to travel to. Add to that the fact that although Butler is fading a bit, they're technically in the Dance, so they've got a big target on their backs, here and throughout the A-10 Tournament.

Virginia at Florida State: Well, this ones' hard to figure. Usually I have some lean before I even get into it, and it's not usually to the road favorite. However, it may have to be that way. FSU ought to to motivated, having been held to 36 points in their last game, but this team has mentally lost whatever they may have had coming into the season. they remind me, and I've said it before, of their football team, mentally. Fragile. They do have another home game Saturday, so this isn't their Senior night. Quite frankly, the Civic Center might not have many people in it other than a few thousand Alumni about my age. I'm a little concerned that for all the accolades UVA has rec'd that they don't really have a marquee road win, and that would bother me. Right now they're slated, in Linardi's bracket, to play their polar-opposite Oregon Ducks, but a loss here and there could have them playing their way out just as easy. That BC loss killed them, so now they've got to refocus quick, and they're an awful young team to be doing that, which may bring me back to taking the points with FSU. That almost hurts my fingers to type, actually.

Wisconsin at Michigan State: My initial thought might be that there's some value to the Badgers, having been hosed by Purdue. That was about as classic a game "taking Purdue for granted" as you'll ever see, since Wisconsin actually went up by about ten fairly quickly. I've been a Spartan buyer most of the last few weeks, mainly because they have played the toughest schedule in the Conference and can play defense, so don't discount them in your futures or brackets by any means. The Badgers are currently a projected #5 seed and dropping, so I could see a scenario where they lose this game and get bounced early enough in the Conference tournament to where they're an NIT team. They (Wisconsin) beat Indiana and Illinois on the road, so it's possible, but that was a long time ago in a far away place. The Spartans have lost three straight, but none of them bad losses. However, they need to get this one. If it weren't for Izzo I could see them being a little scared after those losses, the last one a heartbreaker, but I don't think even he can instill the confidence they need overnight. They beat the Badgers by two in a typical Wisconsin home game score, 49-47, earlier. I suspect Michigan State may, I said may, run a little trying to get the Badgers out of sync. But, Wisconsin DOES have the number one ranked defense in the Conference in terms of efficiency. But, because they shoot three point shots and don't get to the line (they suck when they do) I would be breaking a rule of mine not to take such teams on the road. Probably more value in the total, and probably have to make the square play in the Spartans. I could easily see using Michigan State in a ML parlay, however.

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