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College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, March 4

College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, March 4

College Knowledge

-- Kansas (-17) won 60-46 at Texas Tech Jan 12, outscoring Tech 19-8 on foul line with +7 turnover ratio, but they led by only a hoop at half. Senior Night in Lawrence; Jayhawks are 6-2 as home favorites this year, covering last four tries- they've won/covered six games in row since the 3-game losing streak. Tech covered once in its last seven road games. Big X double digit home favorites are 6-9 vs spread.
-- Fading Cincinnati lost five of last seven games, after 6-3 start in league play; Bearcats lost last three road games by 4-7-21 points, scoring 52.3 ppg. UC is 2-1 as a road dog. Louisville won last five games, going 3-1 vs spread in last four, but they've covered only once in last five games at home, winning by 18-26-3-19-14-18 points. Big East double digit home favorites are 9-13. Cardinals had big win at Syracuse Saturday.
-- Baylor's buzzer-beater home loss Saturday was brutal for bubble team that is now 1-4 in last five games; Bears (-11) beat Texas 86-79 in OT in conference opener Jan 5, outscoring Longhorns 36-9 on foul line. Bears lost four of last five road games. Texas is 3-3 since Kabongo got eligible, with two of its three wins in OT. Big X underdogs are 17-9 when spread is 3 or less points. Baylor has to be fragile mentally right now.
-- Two of Montana's three best players (Cherry/Ward) are out with foot injuries; Griz played only seven guys in 71-68 win at Montana State on Saturday. Montana (-13) beat Southern Utah 73-67 Jan 17, outscoring T-birds 31-5 on foul line (Griz was 31-47). Big Sky home underdogs are 8-10 vs spread, 3-1 if number was 4 or less points. SUU lost four of its last five overall, but has won five of its last six home games.
-- Savannah State beat North Carolina A&T 56-49 at home two weeks ago, despite turning ball over 27 times (-6); Tigers turn ball over 28% of time, more than any team in country. A&T won its last four home games allowing 52 ppg; Savannah lost its last two games, scoring 58-47 points, after winning 12 of its previous 14 games. Senior Night for A&T team that is #7 in country in terms of experience.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, March 4

Cincinnati at Louisville: What Bettors Need to Know

Cincinnati Bearcats at Louisville Cardinals (-10, 121)

Louisville may be one game out of first place, but has to like where it stands entering the final week of the regular season. The Cardinals will play the first of two straight home games to close out their schedule on Monday against Cincinnati. Louisville, winners of five in a row and eight of its last nine, hasn’t lost since its five-overtime setback against Notre Dame on Feb. 9, defeating four of its opponents over that span by at least 14 points.

The Cardinals – 13-1 at home this season – are coming off a 58-53 road victory over Syracuse on Saturday, but will be playing for the third game in six days when they host the Bearcats. Cincinnati halted a three-game skid with a 61-56 win over Connecticut, but finds itself in a three-way tie for ninth place with Providence and St. John’s. The Bearcats could strengthen their NCAA Tournament resume with a win, but a loss could damage their hopes of securing a first-round bye in the Big East Tournament.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (19-9, 7-8 Big East): Sean Kilpatrick – the fourth-leading scorer in the conference – has led the team in scoring in nine of the last 11 contests. The junior guard has made a team-high 34 3-pointers and shooting 80.4 percent from the foul line during the stretch. Taking advantage of a Connecticut team without Shabazz Napier, the Bearcats outscored the Huskies 21-1 in points off turnovers Saturday. Since Cashmere Wright missed his only game of the season on Jan. 19 with a knee sprain, he is shooting 22.9 percent - including 19.7 percent beyond the arc. Over that 10-game stretch, Wright has shot over 30 percent from the field three times.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (24-5, 12-4): During their winning streak, the Cardinals have limited their opponents to 35.5 percent shooting from the field and 54.2 points. For the season, Louisville has held 18 teams to less than 40 percent shooting and 18 to fewer than 60 points. The Cardinals are third nationally in turnover margin (plus-6.0) and have forced an average of 18.7 turnovers, scoring 661 of their 2140 points off opponents’ miscues. Gorgui Dieng posted his tenth double-digit rebounding performance with 14 boards against the Orange, surpassing 700 career rebounds in the process. Peyton Siva needs seven steals to match Darrell Griffith’s school record of 230.


* Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Bearcats’ last seven road games.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.


1. This is the first meeting between the schools since last season’s Big East Championship title game.

2. Cardinals coach Rick Pitino needs one more win to notch his 300th victory at Louisville.

3. Cincinnati opponents are scoring 11.2 points below their season average this season when playing the Bearcats.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, March 4

Big Monday Tips
By Brian Edwards

Cincinnati at Louisville

As of Sunday night, most betting shops had Louisville (24-5 straight up, 15-14 against the spread) installed as a 10-point home favorite with a total of 121.

Rick Pitino’s team picked up its best win of the season Saturday at Syracuse. Russ Smith made several big plays at crunch time to lead the Cardinals to a 58-53 victory over the Orange as 1.5-point underdogs. Smith, U of L’s leading scorer with an 18.3 points-per-game average, finished with a team-high 18 points. Gorgui Dieng produced 11 points, 14 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots, while Luke Hancock buried 4-of-5 shots from 3-point land en route to a 12-point effort.

Louisville has limped to a 5-9 spread record at home, but the Cardinals have only lost once (to the ‘Cuse) at the KFC Yum! Center.

Cincinnati (20-9 SU, 10-15 ATS) snapped a three-game losing streak by capturing a 61-56 win Saturday over UConn, but it failed to cover the spread as a 7.5-point home favorite. The 117 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 127-point total. Sean Kilpatrick was the catalyst for Cincy, producing 20 points, five rebounds, three steals and three assists without committing a turnover.

Cincy has only been an underdog four times, going 2-2 ATS. The richest underdog situation came in a 57-55 loss at Syracuse as an eight-point puppy. In the two spots where the Bearcats were underdogs of six points or more, they took the cash both times.

Cincy is 48th in the RPI Rankings, compiling records of 1-3 against the RPI Top 25, 4-7 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 8-9 against the RPI Top 100.

U of L is fifth in the RPI, going 3-3 against RPI Top 25 opponents, 6-4 versus the Top 50 foes and 10-5 against the RPI Top 100. T

Mick Cronin’s team defends extremely well, giving up an average of only 59.1 points per game. But the Bearcats often go long stretches without being able to score. This has been a remedy for ‘unders’ galore. The ‘under’ is an NCAA-best 18-4 overall in Cincy games, going 6-2 in its road assignments.

The ‘under’ is 13-10 overall for Louisville, 4-4 in its eight home games with a total.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive head-to-head meetings between these Big East rivals.

Tip-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Baylor at Texas

As of Sunday evening, Baylor (17-12 SU, 11-13 ATS) was listed as a two-point favorite at most spots. A few offshore shops had the total at 138.

Scott Drew’s team has lost seven of its last 10 games after dropping a 64-61 decision Saturday to Kansas St. as a 2.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Rodney McGruder splashed a 3-pointer at the buzzer to lift the Wildcats to victory and put Baylor’s at-large hopes in serious danger.

Baylor is No. 61 in the RPI Rankings, going winless in six games against RPI Top 25 opponents. The Bears are 1-8 against the RPI Top 50, 4-10 against the RPI Top 100. Therefore, they have to make some noise fast. With Kansas coming to Waco this weekend, Baylor will have that opportunity. The question for gamblers is whether or not that makes the Bears vulnerable to a look-ahead situation at Texas.

Barring a shocking run through the Big 12 Tournament, Texas (13-16 SU, 14-11-1 ATS) is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time in Rick Barnes’s 15-year tenure. The Longhorns didn’t have their best player, Myck Kabongo, for the first 23 games but the sophomore point guard has been back for the last six games. The ‘Horns are 3-3 SU and 3-2-1 ATS since Kabongo returned. He is averaging 16.7 points, 5.0 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game.

Texas lost 78-65 Saturday at Oklahoma St. as a 13-point underdog. Kabongo was limited to as many points (7) as he had turnovers (7), but he did dish out eight assists, grab five rebounds and make four steals. Julien Lewis scored a team-high 15 points.

Baylor has won three in a row over Texas and has been the victor in seven of the last nine encounters. The Bears are 6-3 ATS over this span. When these schools met in Waco on Jan. 5, Baylor needed overtime to slip past the Longhorns by an 86-79 score. Texas took the cash as an 11-point underdog, while the 165 combined points soared ‘over’ the 133-point total. Cory Jefferson scored 25 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, while Pierre Jackson finished with 24 points and six assists. Texas got 26 and 21 points out of Javan Felix and Sheldon McClellan, respectively.

The ‘over’ is 13-11 overall for Texas, 6-4 in its home games. The ‘over’ has hit in four straight games for the Longhorns and six of their last seven.

The ‘over’ is 12-11 overall for Baylor, 5-5 in its 10 true road assignments.

The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings between these Big 12 adversaries.

ESPN will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

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College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Texas Tech at Kansas

Jayhawks dropping the hammer on Mountaineers Saturday at Allen Fieldhouse winning 91-65 notched their sixth straight win/cover moving to 25-4 (15-13 ATS) overall, 13-3 (9-7 ATS) in the conference, 15-1 (9-6 ATS) on home court. Jayhawks lead by Ben McLemore (16.6) netting 75.1 points/game while allowing 61.3 per/contest on a nation best 35.4% shooting aren't about to squander an opportunity against offensively challenged Red Raiders (66.0 PPG) unable to solve Big 12 opponents. Red Raiders have won just three of it's sixteen (6-10 ATS) including a horrendous 1-7 (2-6 ATS) on the road. Look for Jayhawks to leave a favourable impression in their final home game of the season improving the current 12-0 (8-4 ATS) mark in LHG's while Texas Tech continues it's 0-5 (1-4 ATS) slide in last regular season road games and falls to 0-7 SU/ATS playing in Lawrence.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, March 4

Games to Watch
By David Schwab

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 10 Louisville Cardinals

With just two straight-up victories in their last seven games, the Bearcats will probably have to win next week’s Big East Tournament to earn a spot in the Big Dance. They finally took a step in the right direction with a 61-56 win over Connecticut this past Saturday as 7½-point home favorites to improve to 20-9 SU on the year. Cincinnati has been costly to wager on lately as well with a 2-7 record against the spread in its last nine games to fall to 10-15 ATS overall. The total has stayed UNDER in 13 of its last 15 games. It is currently tied for ninth in the Big East at 8-8 SU.

Louisville remains just one game in back of No.7 Georgetown in the conference standings at 12-4 after pulling out a huge 58-53 victory over No.12 Syracuse as a 1 ½-point road underdog this past Saturday. The Cardinals are 25-4 SU on the year and 15-14 ATS after going 3-1 ATS in their last four games. They are 13-1 SU at home this season but just 5-9 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last 10 games. Rick Pitino’s crew is averaging 73.8 points behind Russ Smith’s team-high 18.4 points a game. They are giving-up an average of 58.3 points a game on the other end of the court.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, March 4

College basketball point spreads and picks – Louisville lays big number vs. Cincinnati
By: The Linemakers

Cincinnati picked up its game last March and made runs in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments. The Bearcats have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 March games.

Does Mick Cronin’s club have another late-season surge in it?

In a rematch of last year’s Big East tournament championship game, Cincinnati heads to surging Louisville as a big underdog Monday night.

The Wynn opened the Cardinals -10.5; other shops’ opening number was -10.

Monday marks the first meeting between these teams since the Cardinals grinded out a 50-44 win last March at Madison Square Garden. Both teams shot less than 40 percent in that game, and Cincinnati had just 14 points at half.

"They know us as well as we know ourselves. We know them as well as they know themselves," Louisville coach Rick Pitino said after last year’s championship game. “Mick and I worked together, and we know the way each other think. It's very difficult to play two teams that know each other so well an hour and 20 minutes down the road. It was going to be a defensive battle."

The last five meetings have stayed UNDER the total. Another low-scoring affair could be in store for Monday. The total will be around 122.

Louisville (24-5, 15-13-1 ATS) is on a five-game winning streak, highlighted by Saturday’s tough, 58-53 win at Syracuse. After reaching the Final Four last season, the Cardinals have been ranked in the top five of The Linemakers’ Power Ratings all year. They boast the No. 1-ranked defense in the Big East, according to Ken Pomeroy’s statistics.

Cincinnati is second to last in the conference in both field-goal and 3-point percentage and last in free-throw shooting.

The Bearcats (20-9, 10-15 ATS) ended a three-game slide Saturday, coming from behind to beat a Connecticut team missing its best player, point guard Shabazz Napier. They have not been playing their best basketball and do not own a quality road win.

But Cincinnati, sitting squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, has more to play for than Louisville, which is locked into a double-bye in the conference tournament. Pitino knows that his team’s Tournament seeding depends more on how the Cardinals perform in the Big East tournament than it does the final two games of the regular-season. Louisville hosts Notre Dame for Senior Night on Saturday. The Fighting Irish were the last team to beat the Cardinals, in an epic five-overtime thriller last month.

The Linemakers’ lean: Both Cincinnati and Louisville are having trouble scoring, and the reason is the same for both teams: the starting backcourts take more than 70 percent of the 3-point attempts for their respective sides, and the four guards all shoot 34 percent or worse from behind the arc. When teams shoot poorly, games tend to stay under, and the trends for both teams support that notion. Ten of Cincinnati's last 11 games, and eight of Louisville’s last 10, have stayed UNDER the total the total. We did, however, expect Monday's total to be higher.

Louisville, meanwhile, has won eight of its last nine games, but it hasn't exactly been a covering machine, getting the cash just five times in its last seven outings.

One more lean from The Linemakers:

Baylor visits Texas as a 1.5-point favorite in a matchup of teams going in opposite directions. Baylor has lost four of its its last five, including a last-second loss on Saturday to Kansas State. Texas is 3-3 with Myck Kabongo back in the lineup, with home wins over Oklahoma and Iowa State during that stretch. Baylor has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series, but there is not much difference between the two teams with Kabongo on the floor, and the Longhorns are a dog at home tonight. We're on Texas.

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