Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February 25

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February 25

SPORTS WAGERS

IOWA STATE +116 over Kansas

The Jayhawks of Kansas need no introductions. This is a perennial power with the most passionate fan base in the country. This year is no different as the Jayhawks will once again be a high seed at this year’s Madness. Kansas is ranked #9 in the country with its 11-3 conference mark and 22-4 overall record. However, with just three games left after this one against Texas Tech, West Virginia and Baylor, Kansas is done with its difficult portion of the schedule and could certainly ease up a bit here. However, this isn’t about fading them.   

For the Cyclones, this is without question their biggest game of the year. Iowa State has won three straight and five of seven to run its record to 19-8. The Cyclones have defeated K-State, Baylor twice and Oklahoma. They also have some very close losses to tournament qualifying teams, including an OT loss in Lawrence against these same Jayhawks. ISU has won 12 straight at home with its last loss occurring way back on November 23 against then #22 Cincinnati. A win here punches Iowa States’ ticket to the dance. This host can compete with anyone. They rank high in all key categories on both ends of the floor. Playing in front of a packed and raucous crowd with everything on the line is the perfect setting for this talented host to will its way to victory.


Dallas +144 over NASHVILLE

OT included. The Stars continue to get disrespected or ignored by both the oddsmakers and betting public. Rarely do they get outplayed. Dallas has picked up points in six of its past nine games, holding its opposition to few scoring chances and fewer than 26 shots on net per game. Had it not been for some shaky goaltending, this visitor could be sitting among the elite in the standings. The Stars have recent wins over Anaheim, San Jose and Vancouver and they’re the only team in the NHL producing nine straight games of three goals or more.

The Predators have not scored a goal in two straight games. Their 39 goals this season ranks them dead last in the NHL. Nashville has dropped four of five with only win over that span occurring in OT against Detroit. Two games later in Detroit, the Preds were shutout, 4-0. It’s one thing to be winning games 1-0 and 2-1, it’s a completely different thing to lose and not score as players start to press and frustration becomes an issue. Now we get to take back a significant price on a team that can score against a team that cannot and that is true value at its best.


Anaheim +132 over LOS ANGELES

OT included. Once again we find some strong value on a very good team. Anaheim is coming off yesterday’s 4-3 home OT win against Colorado, following four full days of rest. The Ducks came out a bit flat but turned it on in the second half of the game to notch their 13th win of the year. Only the Blackhawks have more wins than these Ducks. Anaheim has now won six straight while scoring 24 goals over that period. As a road team, Anaheim is extraordinary 7-1-1.

The Kings have also caught fire with three straight wins and five victories in their past six games. However, a close look reveals its last four wins have come against Columbus, Edmonton, Calgary and Colorado. That quartet sits in the bottom four spots of the Western Conference. So, while Los Angeles is playing better than they were when the season started, they’re still a 10th place club spotting significant juice to a second place club. The Ducks have already come into the Staples Center once this season and skated off with a 7-4 victory. There’s nothing suggesting the Ducks can’t come in here (yesterday was home game and there is no real travel for this one) and emerge victorious again. At this price, it’s certainly worth the risk.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February 25

Undefeated77's High Win Rate Triple Confirmed Plays

Take under 136 - 139
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    JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

    Under 139 bet. Texas Tech and Kansas St..

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Game 711-712: Texas Tech at Kansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 50.644; Kansas State 73.268
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 22 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 19; 137
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-19); Under

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
02/25/13 Predictions
KANSAS STATE 80, Texas Tech 53 = 133

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February 25

Joe Gavazzi

Kansas St -19

Short rest, such as Saturday to Monday, a big advantage for double digit conference road dogs. Particularly ones playing with first meet revenge and coming off a 20 point loss, with the foe off a win and cover. Tech just got avenged by Iowa St on Saturday and is just 1-5 ATS as double digit conference road dog. But only two of those losses have been by more than 20 points. Tonight they face a KS St team without their starting center, Henriquez. The Wildcats come off a brutal stretch of Big 12 games, including their win at Texas this weekend. Time for a breather before they head down the home stretch, including their look ahead to Baylor in their next outing. Leading the Big 12 at 11-3 SU, and having their ticket punched to the Big Dance, further lends to the letdown. Finally, know that first year KS St HC Weber is just 36-54 ATS following a double digit conference win in his career. As strong as these four CBK games are, you do not want to miss any of my NBA winners. I have analyzed all four games for you on the Monday Night NBA Card, including one for FREE.


Denver -7

The Lakers continue their surge toward .500 with a run of 11-4 SU (6-9 ATS), following a 2-10 SU slide. The run began of course when Kobe decided to become a distributor. They should have plenty of motivation with their double revenge and knowledge they can reach the .500 mark with this victory. But it is improbable they get this one tonight. For the season they are 5-15 ATS dog, including 4-11 ATS road dog. Having won in Dallas last night, they are just 10-16 ATS following a win. Now having to travel to altitude is a further negative for this team. They will face a rested Denver team who is 23-3 SU on this court, and plays with the momentum of a Saturday victory, a role in which they stand 20-13 ATS / win. Don't stop with these NBA winners tonight. I swept the board last week on Big Monday and intend to do so again. Get all four ESPN Monday Winners ONE OF WHICH IS FREE.

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Hollywood Sports

Anaheim at Los Angeles
Prediction: Under

Anaheim (13-2-0-1) enters this game after surviving a 4-3 win in overtime last night against Colorado. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Ducks' last 8 games following a victory. Jonas Hiller was in net last night for Anaheim -- so look for red hot rookie goaltender Viktor Fasth to be between the pipes tonight in their second game in back-to-back days. The 30-year old phenom from the Swedish league has been sensational so far this season with a perfect 8-0 record along with a 1.78 GAA. And while the Kings are 3-1-0-1 on their home ice this season, the Under is 17-6-1 in the Ducks' last 24 road game against teams with a winning percentage at home. Los Angeles (8-6-1-1) enters this game coming off their 4-1 win against Colorado on Saturday. The Under is a decisive 36-16-9 in the Kings' last 61 games following a victory. The Under is also 3-0-2 in LA's last 5 games after allowing two goals or less in their last contest. And in their last 4 games at home, the Under is 2-0-2 for the Kings. Take the Under in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February 25

Harry Bondi

UTAH (-6.5) over Boston

This is the final game of a five-game west coast road trip for the Celtics. It is also their fifth game in seven days. Now, that would be tough on any team but will be big trouble for the leagues oldest team! This is also a back to back affair for Boston who lost in Portland last night. Last time they played back to back games, the Celtics were blown out by the Lakers. We expect the same result tonight. Lay the points with the Jazz.

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Chicago/ Edmonton Under 5.5: This has been a high scoring series of late, but not tonight. Chicago home games have averaged just 4 gpg on the year and their strength for the year has been in the net. Chicago is 1st in gpg allowed (1.8) and they are 2nd in penalty kill. Chicago is 4th in scoring at 3.1 gpg, but they only score 2.5 gpg at home. They seem to play a slow grind it out type of game at home, mostly relying on their defense to win games. Edmonton has had problems scoring this year (27th), especially on the road where they have averaged just 2 gpg on the year. Overall the Oilers are 16th in gpg allowed (2.6), but they have allowed just 2.14 gpg on the road and they are 4th in the league in penalty kill. Two good defensive squads in a slow down grind it out game should give us no more than 4 goals.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday February 25

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Boston/ Utah Under 191: I hit with Boston Portland Under last night and i look do the same with the Celts heading to Utah. Boston has shown at times that it wants to run, but for an aging team this is not a good spot for them to do it. Boston is playing on back to back night and this one will be in the high altitude of Salt Lake City. Boston will really need to slow this game and rely on their defense to win it. Boston has struggled on offense putting up just 91.8 ppg in their last 5 games and they have averaged just 94.2 ppg on the road this year. Utah has been very good on defense at home of late, where they have allowed just 89.2 ppg in their last 6 games, so I don't expect Boston to hit the 90's in this one. That would mean that Utah would have to hit at least 100 for this one to go over and I don't see that happening either. Utah does average 100.9 ppg at home and Boston allows 99.1 ppg on the road, but the Celtics have also allowed more than 100 just twice in their last 10 non-OT road games. Also in a slower paced game it should be hard for Utah t hit te century mark, or even the high 90's. I look for a 95-88 type of game here.

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Syracuse/ Marquette Under 131.5: This should be a flat out ugly game. We know that both teams have the potential on off to put up some solid offense, but these two teams play excellent defense and that should keep the scoring down. Marquette comes in ranked 59th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they allow just 61.6 ppg on 39.9% shooting. For the Orangemen they come in ranked 8th in defensive efficiency and they allow just 59.2 ppg overall. They do allow 66.4 ppg on the road, but on just 42.5% shooting. Neither team is great from long range as the Cuse hit just 30% on the road, while Marquette hits 27.8% at home and 30% overall (308th). Marquette relies on their inside game, but the Orange are 21st in the nation in 2 pt defense, allowing just 42.4% inside the arc. Lastly we note that neither team is really uptempo as the Cuse are 172nd in that category, while the Golden Eagles are 236th. Typical Big East game where we see a slow paced defensive battle. 


Kansas/ Iowa State Over 143.5: Should be a fun uptempo game. This has been a high scoring series of late as they last 5 between these teams have put up 153.4 ppg (regulation), with 4 of the 5 games scoring in the 150's. I feel wee can get there in this one as well. The Kansas offense is picking up again as they have put up 73 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games and they are 28th in offensive efficiency for the year. The Cyclones offense hasn't needed to pick up as hey have been there all year long. ISU comes in 5th in the nation in scoring at 79.5 ppg and they are 10th in offensive efficiency. At home they notch 83.5 ppg and they have put up 83.5 and they have put up 80.4 ppg in their last 7 games overall, hitting at least 76 points in 5 of those games. This is a team that will push tempo as they are 49th in that category and while Kansas is not really uptempo they should run with this team. ISU should score in the 70's even though the Jayhawks have a solid defense. Kansas should also easily get into the 70's vs an ISU team that is 232nd in scoring defense (68.6 ppg) and they are getting worse having allowed 70.2 ppg in their last 5 games (Reg). Should also be a close game giving a shot at FT's or OT near the end, but really I don't feel we will need either. Look for this game in the 150's.

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SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT +122 over Atlanta

The Pistons are coming off a pair of ugly losses to the Pacers on the weekend by 32 and 18 points respectively. The scores suggest that the Pistons were not very interested but that was definitely not the case. Detroit was simply outmatched and outclassed by the hottest team in the Association right now. The Pistons played with great intensity on Saturday night but could do very little against the Pacers shut down defense and hot second half shooting. Frustrating yes, but not demoralizing as Detroit is just six games out of a playoff spot and will find the going much easier against this group.

These two have played twice this year with Detroit winning once and losing the other in OT. Atlanta has allowed 100 points or more in five of six with only the offensively challenged Magic not reaching that mark. Winning games when allowing 100 or more is unsustainable. The Hawks have just one cover in their last six trips to the Palace and while they are in decent form right now, this is a team that has not sustained good form for long stretches the entire year. They’ll now face a Detroit team in a foul mood and one whose performance and intensity levels on the court is not reflected in its past two games. That’s commonly when upsets occur.

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NHL Predictions

Dallas Stars +145

The Dallas Stars enter this game with a 9-8-1 record and 5-5 road record. They are coming off a 3-1 home win vs San Jose on the weekend, and they've gong 6-3 over their last 9 games. During that 9 game span the Stars have scored 3 or more goals in every game. The Nashville Predators are 8-6-5 on the year and 4-2-3 at home. They've lost two straight games and were shutout in both of those losses. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. Dallas will go with Cristopher Nilstrop in net tonight in their first of a back to back, and he is 1-3 on the year with a 2.60 GAA and .913 SV%. The Predators are expected to start Pekka Rinne, who has great numbers with a 1.77 GAA and .931 SV% but a record of just 7-5-4. These two teams split their 4 meetings last year, with each team winning one game on the road. With the Stars averaging over 3 goals per game over their last 9 and the Predators being shutout in back to back games I think we have good value on an undervalued Dallas team.


Anaheim Ducks +135

The Ducks were 4-3 winners last night with an overtime victory over the visiting Avalanche. They will now head to Los Angeles to take on the Kings. Anaheim is 13-2-1 on the season, and a stellar 7-1-1 on the road so far this year. The Ducks have won 6 straight games, and have scored 24 goals over those 6 games (4 goals per game). The defending Stanley Cup Champs are off to a 8-6-2 start and are 3-1-1 at home. Los Angeles is on their own winning streak of 3 games and have won 5 of 6, but taking a look at their recent wins you will notice that 4 of those 5 wins have come against the last4 teams in the Western Conference. The Kings did take 5 of their 6 meetings last season, but two of those games in Los Angeles were won in shootout. In their lone meeting this year the Ducks won 7-4 in Anaheim. Viktor Fasth is confirmed for tonight's game for Anaheim and he is a perfect 8-0 on the season with a 1.78 GAA and .933 SV%. The Kings will most likely go with Jonathan Quick who is 5-5-2 on the season with a 2.45 GAA and .905 SV%. Both teams are hot right now, but with the Ducks being 13-3 in their last 16 games and riding a hot undefeated goalie I will take them as good sized underdogs.

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