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College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, February 25

College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, February 25

College Knowledge

-- Syracuse is 4-4 in last eight games after 18-1 start, losing three of last four road games; Orange won five of last seven games with Marquette, but lost 76-70 in last visit here two years ago. Big East home teams are 12-27 if spread is 5 or less points. Marquette is 7-0 at home in Big East, with last four wins by 10+ points- their last six wins overall are also by 10+. 46 points Syracuse scored Saturday were their least ever in Dome.
-- Kansas State beat Texas Tech 68-59 in Lubbock Feb 5, making 8-20 from arc; it was State's 6th straight series win, despite forcing only four turnovers. Tech lost last three visits here, by 12-34-19 points. Wildcats won seven of last eight games; they're 6-1 at home, with five of six wins by 9+ points. Tech lost its last eight games; they're 0-6 on Big X road, with five losses by 16+. Big X double digit home favorites are 12-5.
-- Villanova won five of last six games, winning at UConn, also beating Marquette; Wildcats won last ten games vs Seton Hall, winning four in row here, by 14-9-4-3 points. Seton Hall lost its last nine games, with five of last six losses by 11+ points. Big East home underdogs of 6 or less points are 7-16 vs spread. Pirates turn ball over 23.8% of time.
-- ESPN's first Big Monday visit to Ames in seven years; Iowa State got beat 97-89 in OT at Kansas Jan 9, Jayhawks' 14th win in last 15 series games- they lost by 8 here LY. Big X home teams are 9-13 when spread is 5 or less points. ISU was 14-38 from arc at Kansas, 16-35 inside arc; they're 7-0 in Big X home games this year, and scored 86+ points in last four games. Kansas lost two of last three on road, with win in double OT at Oklahoma State.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, February 25

Monday's Top 25 NCB Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Monday’s ranked college basketball games:

Texas Tech at (13) Kansas State (-19.5, 137)

Kansas State shares first place in the conference with Kansas and the Wildcats have four games remaining to chase their first regular-season title since winning the Big Eight championship in 1976-77. The Wildcats, who are 13-1 at home, have won seven of their last eight, including three straight, and are coming off an 81-69 victory at Texas on Saturday. Kansas State has won the last six meetings against Texas Tech, including a 68-59 victory Feb. 5 in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.

(8) Syracuse at (20) Marquette (Pick, 131)

Syracuse and Marquette were tied with Georgetown for first place in the Big East entering last weekend, but losses by both teams on Saturday dropped each of them a game off the pace. The Orange, who have lost three of their last four road games, will have a short turnaround against Marquette, which owns the country’s second-longest active home winning streak at 23. Syracuse is 4-4 over its last eight games and the conference’s second-highest scoring offense has failed to top 58 points in three of those contests or shoot better than 36.7 percent from the field. The Golden Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.

(9) Kansas at Iowa State (+1, 144)

Iowa State has the third-longest active home-winning streak in the nation at 22 games and is 31-2 at Hilton Coliseum over the last two seasons. The Jayhawks needed overtime to beat visiting Iowa State on Jan. 9. Ben McLemore scored a season-high 33 points in that game, but the standout Kansas freshman guard has been held under his team-high 16.2 scoring average in the last three games. The Jayhawks will have to defend the perimeter in this one as the Cyclones have made a nation-leading 260 3-pointers this season, converting 10 or more in six straight games. Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, February 25

Big Monday Tips
By Brian Edwards

Gamblers have a pair of outstanding games to wager on for this week’s Big Monday doubleheader on ESPN. Syracuse and Marquette are going to the NCAA Tournament, but both teams could see their respective seeds slipping with another loss.

Kansas can’t afford another loss if it wants to see its name on the top line on Selection Sunday, while Iowa St. can basically cement its at-large case with a win over the Jayhawks. Let’s touch on these matchups and more.

Syracuse at Marquette

As of early Sunday night, most books were listing this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 131.

Despite playing in front of a record crowd at the Carrier Dome, Syracuse (22-5 straight up, 14-9 against the spread) couldn’t cool off Georgetown in a 57-46 loss as an eight-point home favorite Saturday. Otto Porter destroyed the Orange with a career-high 33-point effort. James Southerland and C.J. Fair scored 13 points apiece for the ‘Cuse.

Marquette (19-7 SU, 11-11 ATS) is undefeated in 14 home games with a 5-5 spread record.

Buzz Williams’s team had won six of its last eight games until Saturday’s 60-56 loss at Villanova as a two-point road underdog. Junior Cadougan was the only Marquette player in double figures with a team-high 12 points.

Marquette (RPI of 17) is 5-5 against RPI Top 50 opponents and 8-6 versus Top 100 foes.

Jim Boeheim’s club is 12th in the RPI Rankings, going 4-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 10-5 against the RPI Top 100.

Marquette junior guard Vander Blue is averaging a team-high 14.7 points per game, but he was held to seven points in each of his team’s most recent losses at Villanova and at Georgetown. He made only 2-of-8 shots from the field in Saturday’s setback to the Wildcats.

After missing seven games and more than a month due to eligibility concerns, Southerland has scored in double figures in all five games since returning. Brandon Triche is the Orange’s leading scorer, averaging 14.7 PPG. Fair scores at a 14.2 PPG clip and Southerland averages 13.8 PPG.

These Big East rivals have split the last four head-to-head meetings, but Marquette has covered the spread in each of those encounters. The ‘under’ has cashed in the last three meetings.

The ‘under’ is 11-10 overall for the ‘Cuse, but the ‘over’ is 5-3 in its eight true road assignments.

The ‘under’ is on a 6-2 run in Marquette’s last eight games. However, the ‘over’ is 11-10 overall for the Golden Eagles, 6-4 in their 10 home games with a total.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Kansas at Iowa State

As of early Sunday night, most betting shops had Kansas (23-4 SU, 13-13 ATS) installed as a one-point road favorite with a total of 144.

Iowa St. (19-8 SU, 12-10 ATS) is unbeaten in 15 home games, posting a profitable 7-3 spread record.

Since suffering back-to-back road losses at Kansas St and at Texas, Fred Hoiberg’s squad has won three in a row both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 88-66 win over Texas Tech as an 18-point home ‘chalk.’ Chris Babb and Will Clyburn scored 17 points apiece, while Melvin Ejim had a double-double with 13 points and 13 rebounds.

Bill Self’s team avenged an embarrassing loss at TCU a few weeks ago by demolishing the Horned Frogs by a 74-48 count as a 23-point home favorite. The Jayhawks raced out to a 38-9 lead at halftime. They were led by Jeff Withey’s 18 points, six rebounds and three blocked shots.

Kansas is in a first-place tie with Kansas St. for the lead in the Big 12 standings. With identical 11-3 records, KU and K-St. lead third place Oklahoma St. by one game and have a two-game advantage over Iowa St. with its 9-5 league ledger.

KU owns a 9-3 record against RPI Top 50 opponents and a 12-3 mark against the RPI Top 100. Meanwhile, Iowa St. (RPI: 51) has a 2-5 record against RPI Top 50 foes and is 5-6 versus the RPI Top 100.

KU’s Withey leads the nation in blocked shots, averaging 5.2 rejections per game. Freshman Ben McLemore leads the team in scoring with a 16.2 points-per-game average.

Clyburn is the Cyclones’ leading scorer, averaging 14.9 PPG.

When these schools met in Lawrence on Jan. 9, Kansas won a 97-89 decision in overtime. However, Iowa St. took the cash an 11.5-point road underdog. McLemore led all scorers with 33 points, including an off-the-glass 3-pointer at the end of regulation to force the extra session. All five starters on both teams scored in double figures. Eijm produced 19 points, 11 rebounds and five assists compared to only one turnover for the Cyclones.

KU has watched the ‘under’ go 12-10-1 overall, 6-2 in its eight true road assignments.

The ‘over’ has hit in nine consecutive games for the Cyclones, who have seen the ‘over’ go 15-3 overall, 8-1 in their nine home games with a total.

The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these Big 12 rivals.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Most books are listing Villanova as four-point road favorite Monday night at Seton Hall. ESPNU will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

Kansas St. is a 19.5-point home favorite vs. Texas Tech at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

Georgia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after pulling out a miracle cover in Saturday’s 62-54 overtime win over South Carolina as a seven-point home favorite.

Georgetown has won nine in a row and 11 of its last 12 both SU and ATS following Saturday’s win at Syracuse.

With Sunday’s 62-41 loss at Notre Dame, Cincinnati has now lost three in a row and five of its last six. The Bearcats continue to throw up bricks galore and their lack of offense has allowed ‘under’ backers to cash tickets at a frenetic 18-4 overall pace for the season. Mick Cronin’s team had better tighten up soon.

Poor Bill Carmody. His Northwestern squad has been absolutely decimated by injuries and the result has been three straight blowout losses, five straight defeats overall with each coming by double-digit margins (although the 10-point loss at Ohio St. was a much closer game than the final score indicated).

San Francisco is tied with Virginia for the best ATS record in the nation with a 16-7-1 ATS mark. The Dons have covered in eight of their last 10 games and own an 8-1 spread record in their last nine games as underdogs.

Florida St. has clearly quit on Leonard Hamilton this season. The Seminoles suffered another brutal loss Sunday, falling 80-70 at Va. Tech. I’m not even sure if Hamilton is on the hot seat but if I’m FSU, I go offer Butler’s Brad Stevens a king’s ransom to come be my next head coach. There’s no excuse for FSU not to have an elite basketball program. The ‘Noles are in the ACC, have the ‘FAMU recruiting tool’ which is essentially a guarantee that African-American players can enjoy a social life in Tallahassee like none that can be offered at any other school in America. Also, the off-campus arena allows for alcohol to be consumed at games. This is a huge drawing card for students to go to games. And the quality of ACC basketball has been extraordinarily diminished in recent years. But hey, I’m a GATOR so I’d just assume Bobby Bowden come out of retirement and Hamilton stick around for another decade.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, February 25

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Kansas at Iowa State

Jayhawks dropping the hammer on hapless Horned Frogs avenging it's loss at TCU notched their fourth straight win Saturday with a 74-48 victory and are now 23-4 (13-13 ATS) on the campaign, 11-3 (7-7 ATS) in the Big 12. Jayhawks lead by Ben McLemore (16.2) net 73.3 points/game while allowing 59.9 per/contest on a nation best 35.5% shooting. Meanwhile, Cyclones destroying Texas Tech 86-66 last time out exacting revenge for an earlier loss in Lubbock improved to 19-8 (12-10 ATS) on the year, 9-5 (10-4 ATS) within the conference. Cyclones with a quad of double digit scorers tally 79.5 points/game giving up 68.6 to the opposition. Kansas has had great success vs Cyclones winning 14-of-15 meetings including a 97-89 overtime victory earlier this season at Allen Fieldhouse but Jayhawks are a vig-losing 7-7-1 ATS over the span. Jayhawks 5-2 (2-5 ATS) on the road in conference play scoring only 61.9 PPG while allowing 59.6 points need to be at their lock-down defensive best, the Cyclones are a perfect 15-0 at home with a smart 7-3 ATS stretch in line games including a sparkling 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS vs visiting conference rivals scoring a whopping 79.9 points/game.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, February 25

Monday Cliff Notes
By Dave Essler

We got obliterated on our only premium play on Sunday (USC). Not sure which is worse, the aged old argument of whether you'd rather being on the wrong end of the last thirty seconds, or just get crushed. From years of experience, I can assure you it's the former. To be that far off is embarrassing and certainly doesn't put our best foot forward. There are adjustments that need to be made this time of year. More often than not, and it was the case on Saturday and Sunday, a larger percentage of favorites covered the number. That happens in November, and it starts happening again now. I don't have numbers to support that, and there always "any given day", but from experience and history, it does happen. So, we grind on.

Syracuse at Marquette: Having just said what I said, my typical reaction to this game would be to find a way to back Marquette and/or the home underdog. Both teams need to win to assure themselves of staying in the top four in the Conference and hence a bye in the Tournament, and Marquette has yet to lose at home this season. They come in off a fairly predictable loss at Villanova, knowing that 'Nova had been playing pretty well and Marquette could we be thinking more about THIS game. The 'Cuse had no excuse in looking ahead and losing at home to G-Town. They turned the ball over 16 times, only had eight assists, and shot .200 from behind the arc. They're lucky it wasn't worse. Marquette loves to pound the ball inside and get to the FT line, and they do it well. The problem is that Syracuse is a far better defensive team than offensive, and they've got a significant length advantage, hence they are the fifth best offensive rebounding team in the nation. However, they aren't a great defensive rebounding team, and Marquette is indeed a very good OFFENSIVE rebounding team, and therein lies what this game will come down to, IMO. That and the big advantage Syracuse has in both not turning the ball over (as they did against G-Town) and in creating them. I'd be quite tempted to take the under here, as this should be a methodical defensive game, but I can at the same time see a close game with some late free throws. Tough one throw down one right now, and two ways to look at it. How often can you bet on Syracuse without laying points (twice this season) or how often can you get Marquette at home just needing to win (twice this year and they won both v/Wisconsin and Pittsburgh). I've thought all along Pittsburgh was a bit over rated. I guess if I had to bet this game, I'd find a way to follow the money, if I could find it, as late as I could. It's a PK for a reason. Marquette's slightly "off" offensive numbers may well be a result of facing opponents with the #1 rated defensive efficiency, too. I suspect most "sharp" people will be on the home team, but I have my reservations at this point. Statistically, Syracuse should win the game. This time of year with this much at stake (seeding) the better team does not always win.

Kansas at Iowa State: Well, people will be tripping over themselves to take ISU here, especially with the overtime loss earlier this season at Kansas, and the fact that they are undefeated at home this year. Couple that with the fact that most people will remember that Kansas lost to TCU outright. Losing ATS in that game was actually predictable since it was sandwiched between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (two losses). I wonder if that overtime win over Oklahoma State on the road has put these guys heads back on straight. Last year these teams split their games, each winning on their home floor. Both teams have a ton of experience, and Kansas has the height. But, against a shooting team like Iowa, that may only be a factor if Iowa cannot grab the defensive rebounds, which they've actually been pretty good at. Perhaps the biggest advantage Iowa has here is depth. Kansas just isn't that deep off the bench, and Iowa is going to push the pace. That is a given. Neither team turns it over much, and neither team creates a ton, either, which would make me think this is one game that may well go over the number, although 144 is a big number. On the flip side, Kansas hasn't had a road game come anywhere near this number except for their win at Ohio State way back when. Conversely, the last nine Iowa State games have gone over this number. Hard to think, after rethinking, that another "over" is that easy, and that Kansas won't mitigate SOME of ISU's shooting and have just enough deliberate possessions to keep it under given that is that Iowa State simply does not go to the free throw line, and that could be costly if their not hitting their jump shots. This is surely another one of those games that the most talented team (with the better stats) may not win. Clearly the biggest home game for ISU this season, if not for several seasons, and just like Marquette, you got to wonder how much of this game will be won by emotion and how much be sheer talent. Kansas is tied for the Big 12 lead with K-State, who they've beaten twice. After this game the Jayhawks have to "gimme" games against WVU (sorry Dub) and T-Tech at home before finishing up at Baylor, in a game that may not mean much, other than to Kansas' designs on a high seed. Given ISU's relatively low RPI their really playing for revenge and a top four seed, which is obviously a lot, but a loss here would hurt Kansas far more than ISU going forward. One other point of interest is although Kansas has had a relatively easy (if there is such a thing) conference schedule, Iowa State has played, to date, the easiest Conference schedule. So, not unlike the Syracuse game, we have the "trendy" Iowa State team at home against the more "talented" Kansas team. With that in mind, I will have to work harder to find the winner(s) here.

Villanova at Seton Hall: Well, Villanova has all of a sudden become the trendy team to take, and is more than a one possession road favorite. Does Seton Hall suck that bad? I don't think so. However, they only other time in conference play this season they were a road favorite was at DePaul, who they promptly destroyed. Less than a week ago Seton Hall was only a five point underdog at home to Marquette, a game they lost by nearly twenty. A couple of weeks ago they were +5.5 at home to Cincinnati, and lost by six. So, just to put things in perspective, that would thereby put Villanova in the same class as Marquette, and as fate would have it Villanova just beat the Golden Eagles. See how this all starts to make sense after a while! A month ago I would have taken Seton Hall without even thinking about it, but please refer back to paragraph one and this weekend, when I said that good teams start winning and covering this time of year. I know Villanova beat UConn on the road (they've won at DePaul and South Florida as well) but that UConn win was right after the Huskies had beaten Syracuse, and again, predictable. The value here could also like in the total. Villanova scores 27% of their points from the line, which is bar none the highest number in the country. Seton looks at this game as perhaps one of their last chances to actually win a game. Both teams have serious turnover issues at times. Villanova is good, and playing well, but they simply aren't as talented (and are much younger) than some of the teams they're mentioned with, and the one thing they do not do is defend the perimeter. So, I have to think Seton may be jacked up enough to run with Villanova and this one goes over. They very early money at Pinnacle pushed this to -4 while it still sits at -3.5 most other places. Remember it doesn't take much money to move a line in the very early stages, and with CRIS and Greek still sitting at +3.5, that would, at least this early, make me lean Seton Hall. Obviously that could change in a nano-second, but we have to start, and end, somewhere. Still think this one may well inch over 130.

So, there is the full (almost) slate of Monday games. And Sunday, of the ten games either finished or well underway that involve upper echelon conferences, every single favorite has covered and/or is at the moment. See paragraph one, and how I remember this is that last March that trend did the same thing and I was way behind it. I was also trying to get ready for baseball and spread entirely too thin. Not doing that again, as it is the dictionary definition of insanity. We learn from our mistakes, and do not need six weeks to get ready for baseball. If we hadn't had three straight winning seasons, I'd worry about it. For now, I am only concerned with finding all our clients and anyone else that has the desire to read, more winners than losers.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Monday, February 25

Games to Watch
By David Schwab

No. 8 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 17 Marquette Golden Eagles

A huge 57-46 loss to No.11 Georgetown this past Saturday as a 7 ½-point home favorite not only dropped Syracuse out of first place in the Big East standings, it has it tied with Marquette at 10-4 in conference play making this showdown all that more important. The Orange are now 22-5 straight-up and 14-9 against the spread. The total has gone OVER in three of their last five games. Brandon Triche and CJ Fair are each averaging over 14 points and the team as a whole is scoring 74.1 points a game while shooting 44.6 percent from the field.

Marquette is also coming off a tough loss after dropping a 60-56 decision to Villanova as a two-point road underdog this past Saturday. The Golden Eagles are 19-7 SU (11-11 ATS) overall and return home where they are a perfect 14-0 SU (5-5 ATS) this season. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games. Marquette is averaging 69.2 points a game while giving-up a total of 62.2 points to its opponents. It is shooting 46.5 percent from the floor behind Vander Blue (46.5 percent) and Davante Gardner (55.4 percent), who have combined for 26.3 points a game.

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