Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland at IPFWFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Oakland Golden Grizzlies have had some good teams in the past and before all is said and done, this team may be amongst them. The Grizzlies have rolled to a 10-4 conference record, having won eight straight games, and will be a factor come Summit Conference Tournament time. IPFW has struggled to a 12-16 record on the season, and just doesn't have the upset variables here to take down the Grizzlies. Oakland has been a superior momentum team where they are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 when following an ATS win. The Grizzlies express keeps on keepin' on, so take them here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cal Santa Barbara vs. UC RiversideFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UC RiversideFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UC Riverside held Santa Barbara to 35.1% the last time they played and still lost, but what's going to change in this game is that UCR will be + in FTA and + in turnover margin as UCSB is negative in both on the road. Riverside should improve and SB relies far too much on the three ball where Riverside is holding opponents to 32% at home. Meanwhile Santa Barbara who attempts more than 40% of their shots from 3 are shooting just 28% there over their last 5 games.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

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Oklahoma St -1 vs KansasFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Well, this may be for the title in the Big 12, who would have thunk it?  Kansas struggles against good teams with good guard play and Okie St has the best player on the floor tonight in Marcus Smart, who KU had no answer for in the first meeting which they lost at home to the Cowboys.  I am NOT sold on Kansas whose last road trip to Oklahoma was in Norman and OU handed them a road loss in that one.
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Okie State has the best talent on the floor in the Big 12, but Travis Ford is not the best coach in the Big 12, Bill Self is,so that is a positivge for KU backers.  At days end, winning in this building, which is sold out tonight is going to be a tall chore for a KU team that struggles on offd=ense on the road, has no answer inside in this one for OSU's talent and KU has no true point guard either.  OSU has scored 80 ppg their last 5 games and are vastly better on offense than Kansas.  KU just 4-7 ATS on the road this year and have dropped 3 out of their last 5 games SU.  Also to note that the Cowboys play awesome defense at home allowing just 57 ppg.  Kansas meets their match here in a tight one.

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Andre GomesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Magic / Mavericks Over 206FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando had another loss last night against Charlotte last night, where they showed no effort on defense during the first half. The trade rumors will certainly continue today and so, it is very hard to trust them on showing any focus on defense tonight as well. If the Bobcats were a tough matchup for Orlando due to their quick guards, good pick and roll ball handler numbers and high volume of transition plays, then what can we say about Dallas? The Mavericks are #5 in the league in pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.82 PPP and #4 in transition plays with 1.20 PPP, so we can say that Dallas is basically an (way) improved version of Charlotte right now, so they should give a lot of problems to Orlando tonight. Just look at their last four games prior to the All Star Break, where they scored 22, 29, 14 and 24 fast break points! On this particularly spot, with the Mavericks playing at home against a team on a back to back spot, Dallas's game plan has been very simple this season: run up and down the court to worn out their opponents. On this season, the Over is 7-3 every time an opponent plays at Dallas in a back to back spot, with the Mavericks averaging an amazing 22.6 fast break points per game on this specific spot! Against Orlando's poor defense, Dallas won't have problems in scoring in their run and gun style at home. They are rested and healthy, so they will simply run over the Magic tonight.
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However, I am expecting a better offensive performance from Orlando tonight in comparison to yesterday. Note that even though Orlando shot 41,6% FG, they still had 26 assists for a great 70.3% assist rate. The problem is that they simply missed too many wide open jump shots with 5-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 4-25 treys! We are talking about 9-42 FG from +16 feet! Their best three guards in Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick and Arron Afflalo shot a combined of 3-20 from behind the line and this is unlikely to happen once again tonight, as these three players are solid jump shooters and so, they should bounce back tonight. The first game between these two teams ended with 216 points scored in a fast paced contest, where Dallas scored 22 fast break points and Orlando's top three guards all had decent offensive games. I expect something similar tonight, so I'll be taking the Over in here.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Cougars + 19FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Memphis Tigers have played an extremely weak schedule this season. That is why they have only three losses but still rank 21st in the nation. Memphis is 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams that are scoring 77 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. Houston averages 78 points per game and they go a great job of avoiding turnovers and rarely get into foul trouble.
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You should always play on underdogs of 10 or more points when they are shooting 36.5% or more from beyond the three point line against a team with an average three point defense allowing 32-36.5% after 15 games in a season when both teams are out rebounding their opponents. This system is 29-8 ATS since 1997.

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Detroit Pistons -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With the Bobcats winning on the road at Orlando and the Pistons losing at home to the Grizzlies last night, it has set up a very favorable spot to jump on Detroit. Charlotte struggles just to keep games competitive and rarely do you see them win multiple games in a row. The Bobcats are a miserable 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when they are anywhere from a 3-point favorite to a 3-point dog and are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following an upset win as a road underdog.
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The Pistons were caught off guard earlier this season when Charlotte left Detroit with a 108-101 overtime victory. No need to worry about the Pistons not showing up. Detroit is 29-13 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more since 1996. They are also 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games vs a team with a home winning percentage less than .400.

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Tony Karpinski

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder   

Scotty Brooks' men did something they rarely do right before the All-Star Break: they lost back to back games. That is very rare for this team and now that it is the 2nd half of the NBA season, I look for OKC to get back on track. Consider that the Thunder are 26-4 SU and 23-7 ATS their last 30 regular seasons games off a loss. OKC will dominate the paint and the boards and historically the NBA All-Star host team struggles in their first game after the break, I'll lay the 3 points with the Thunder on Wednesday night.

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Steve Merril

Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors    
Play:Golden State Warriors   

Phoenix won at Portland last night 102-98 snapping their 4-game losing streak. The Suns got off to a hot start as they hit 18 of their first 24 shots (75%) to jump out to a 36-23 lead over the Blazers. But Phoenix went cold for the rest of the game as they hit just 39.7% (23-58) over the course of the last three quarters. They were able to hold on and survive because Portland’s offense was limited as they were missing starter Wesley Matthews. Golden St also played last night but they lost in Utah 115-101. The Warriors come in on a 6-game losing streak, and it just so happens that their last win came against Phoenix. The Warriors beat the Suns by 20 points (113-93), and we can expect a similar result tonight. Golden St simply has too much offensive firepower for Phoenix, and since the Suns come off a good offensive performance last night, we expect them to regress and be unable to match Golden St’s offensive output. We’ll lay the points with the home favorite as they snap their losing streak with a blowout win on Wednesday night.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

Larry Ness

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
Pick: Kentucky

Kentucky, the defending champs, opened the season No. 3 in the AP poll but this year’s youthful Wildcats were not up to those lofty expectations. Kentucky fell from the rankings early on but by Feb 11, had climbed back in at No. 25 (stood at 17-6, including 8-2 in the SEC). However, the ‘Cats lost 69-52 at Florida on Feb 12, a game in which they lost 6-10 freshman Nerlens Noel (a player many expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft), to a season-ending injury. In Kentucky’s first game without Noel (at Tennessee this past Saturday), the Wildcats were pummeled by the Vols, 88-58! The Wildcats allowed the Volunteers to shoot 58 percent from the floor, easily the highest mark against Kentucky this season. Coach John Calipari said following the game that several of his players “are not real coachable.” It marked the worst loss in the John Calipari era and the Wildcats return home to begin a three-game homestand with some bruised egos. I don’t expect the ‘Cats to be down for long and tonight’s opponent (Vanderbilt) is just 10-14 (4-8 in the SEC) in a rebuilding year. The Commodores have just two players scoring in double figures, guard Johnson (13.7) and the 6-9 Odom (10.2-4.3). Vandy is just 2-5 SU in true road games TY, averaging a modest 53.9 PPG. Meanwhile, Kentucky is 12-2 at home, where the Wildcats have outscored opponents on average, 80.9-to-59.8 PPG. Sure Noel (10.5-9.5) is no longer around but it’s my opinion that Calipari’s “visibly disturbed” postgame press conference didn’t fall on deaf ears. Freshman Goodwin (13.6-4.5), Poythress (11.7-6.2) and Cauley-Stein (7.5-5.3) plus vets Wiltjer (11.8-4.6), Harrow (9.4) and Mays (9.4-3.0 AG) comprise more than enough talent to put away Vandy. Lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

Teddy Covers

Washington St. vs. Arizona St.
Pick: Arizona St.

I posted a ‘free play’ winner in support of Arizona State in their last game; an outright Sun Devils upset win as 7.5 point underdogs at Colorado.  And there’s absolutely no reason to avoid going right back to the well in support of Herb Sendek’s squad tonight; an undervalued commodity for months now.

Arizona State has hit 67% against the spread over their last 18 lined ballgames dating back to the beginning of December, including a 75% ATS mark as favorites of 6.5 points or higher – exactly the pointspread that we find them in tonight.  It all starts with point guard Jahii Carson, averaging more than 19 points per game in his last ten contests.

But Carson isn’t doing it by himself.   7-2 center Jordan Bachynski is blocking nearly four shots per game, a true low post defensive dominator.  Carrick Felix has already been named the PAC-12 ‘Player of the Week’ three times this year; a double double machine. Evan Gordon and Jonathan Gilling are perimeter sharpshooters, combining to hit 4 ½ three pointers per game.  And they’ve gotten even better since combo guard Chris Colvin’s return to the lineup following a modest injury absence; their best scorer off the bench.

Washington State can’t match Arizona State’s talent or execution levels on either end of the floor.  The Cougars have covered only twice in their last eight tries on the highway; just 2-5 ATS as underdogs of five points or more this year – not a team to support when stepping up in class.  They’re coming off a particularly disheartening overtime defeat against Oregon in their last game, simply playing out the stretch of yet another disappointing campaign.  Don’t expect a step-up effort tonight!  Take Arizona State.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

Jeff Alexander

Golden State Warriors -8

Golden State has lot 6 in a row, but I believe it has an excellent chance to end its skid in impressive fashion tonight. I'm confident the Warriors are the superior team. They have already proven it twice this season and recorded a 20-point win when Phoenix visited Feb. 2. The Suns would love some revenge but fading teams that are playing with double revenge against an opponent that is coming off a road loss has produced a 416-300 (58.1%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Plus, Phoenix is only 14-27 ATS (when playing with double revenge the last 2 seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

Dave Price

Kansas +1

The Jayhawks lost to Oklahoma State by five points at home Feb. 2. That loss ended an 18-game winning streak and sent them into a three-game spiral. They have rebounded with decisive wins in each of their last two games, and I expect them to have their revenge this evening. Oklahoma State has rattled off seven consecutive victories but plays on road teams that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponents, provided that foe checks in off at least three straight wins against conferences opponents, are 243-174 ATS the last five seasons. In other words, Kansas fits neatly into a rock solid 58.3 percent time-tested situation. In addition, the Jayhawks are a strong 16-7 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent under coach Bill Self. Prior to losing the first meeting, Kansas had won four straight in the series. I expect it to start another run tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

Jack Jones

Baylor -4.5

The Baylor Bears should be a bigger home favorite over the Iowa State Cyclones tonight. Baylor will want revenge from its 71-79 road loss at Iowa State in their first meeting of the season on February 2nd. I like its chances of getting it considering how poorly the Cyclones have played on the road this season.

Iowa State is just 2-7 in true road games this season. Its only two road wins this season have come at Missouri-KC and at TCU. As you can see, it does not have a good road win yet. Baylor is 11-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 16.7 points/game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Iowa State and Baylor. In fact, the home team has won 14 straight meetings dating back to 2001. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. That's the kind of evidence I'll gladly back my money with.

This play falls into a system that is 75-36 (67.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BAYLOR) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points. Bet Baylor Wednesday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

Nelly

DePaul + over Georgetown

DePaul is just 2-10 in Big East play this season but keep in mind three of those losses came in overtime and another three came in very tight games. The Blue Demons have made some progress this season despite the losing record and credible wins over Fairfield, Auburn, Arizona State, and Providence show as much. DePaul is coming off a win over Rutgers last weekend and five of the last six games through a tough schedule have been very competitive with three overtime losses and a close loss at Marquette. Georgetown is riding high with a seven game winning streak propelling the Hoyas to the top of the Big East. Only two of those wins came by a margin greater than this spread however as this is a team that has won many close games. After big wins over Marquette and Cincinnati in the last two games this is a clear flat spot with a huge contest at Syracuse coming up this weekend. While Georgetown has won eight in a row in this series, three of the last four meetings have been very close games and this will be a much bigger game for the underdog. These teams clash in style with Georgetown averaging nearly 10 fewer points per game on offense and DePaul is a good shooting team that could have some opportunities in a low scoring game. This is a dangerous game for Georgetown and far too many points to give in this situation.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

Joe Gavazzi

Oklahoma City -3

Following the Harden for Martin trade before the season, there were questions about the impact on OKC. Those have been clearly answered in a positive way. At no time has that been more definitive than in their two games against Houston that have resulted in near identical victories of 120-98 and 124-94. At a short road favorite price, it makes this a clear second half of the season dominance play on the Thunder. Strengthening our selection is the fact OKC limped into break with a pair of losses. But no coach and no team have been more resilient in recent seasons. In his career, HC Brooks is 100-54 ATS/loss, including 43-19 ATS if his team was favored in that loss. This season, OKC is 10-3 ATS following a loss. Houston performs in a dichotomous way, a streaky team, they are just 8-16 ATS / loss. Each of these teams are outstanding on the offensive end of floor, with Houston averaging 106 PPG and OKC 105 PPG. The difference is in the defense, Thunder allow 7 PPG less than Houston. Expect that to translate into a third consecutive series victory this season.


Colorado St +3

This underdog winner is all about experience - both in terms of the players and the coaches. Highly successful program builder Larry Eustachy stepped into a great situation this year when he inherited a team of five senior starters. Not surprisingly, he has crafted this unit into a record of 21-4, 8-2 in the MWC. His only failures in the league have come on the road when the combination of a strong home court and an excellent opposing coach led his Rams to losses of 7 points at San Diego St and Steve Fisher, and 5 points at New Mexico and Steve Alford. The Rams have all around excellence with a defense allowing 60/39/32. But their real claim to fame comes as the nation's #1 rebounding team, with a +14 margin. That's essential to success when facing the powerful front line of UNLV. The coaching acumen of Eustachy played out in a first meet, 66-61 victory, when he out-coached second year UNLV counterpart Dave Rice. Rice is still learning, but badly outmatched on the sideline by the veteran mentors of this league. And his youthful team, though talented, is comprised mostly of frosh and soph. The numbers prove this to be as Rice is 8-17 ATS vs winning teams, and just 15-27 ATS following a victory. Recently, his Rebels are just 1-5 ATS. Only thing keeping this from a stronger play is UNLV's 14-1 SU record at the Thomas and Mack Center. Don't forget about the NBA tonight. I am 60% on my top plays in the NBA this season. There are (2) of them tonight on my five game card. This card is so strong it may well sweep the board.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

Rob Veno   

Texas A&M pk at Auburn
Play: Texas A&M

Add Auburn head coach Tony Barbee to a growing list of head coaches whose postgame conferences seem dominated by listing their team’s shortcomings. The frustrated leader let everyone know that he feels Auburn’s leadership, effort and individual talent is not good enough to win games at this point. Barbee got no argument from junior forward Allen Payne who added, “Like coach says — and you know how honest he is — we can’t win these games off talent, we don’t have enough right now. But if we fight and we compete and we put forth the effort that we need to put forth, we’ll be fine in these games.” Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Combine the ultra-negative tone with their 1-9 straight up record over the last 10 games and it becomes extremely difficult to back Auburn in a pick ‘em contest. However, fading them with a more talented and hungrier Texas A&M squad is a nice option. Expect a spirited performance tonight from the Aggies who are still fighting for the .500 mark in conference play and a postseason tournament bid (possible NIT?). The road has not been tremendously kind to A&M whose four losses have all been by single digits (2-4 overall) but tonight they have an opponent they can break through against. Look for the Aggies to take advantage of the unraveling home side with a victory of 4+ points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday February 20

LT Profits

Santa Clara +13½

Yes, the Gonzaga Bulldogs are 25-2 and are now ranked third in the polls and sixth in the Pomeroy Ratings, but they have been pummeling mostly the weaker teams of the WCC en route to a 12-0 conference mark and they now face one of the better ones in the Santa Clara Broncos. The Broncos are 19-8 this season and they played the Zags tough in an 81-74 loss in Santa Clara last month. The Broncos were able to hang tough despite going an uncharacteristic 7-for-23 for just 30.4 percent from beyond the three-point line, as this is a team that gets 32.7 percent of its points on three-point shots as opposed to 24.3 percent for Gonzaga, so there is no reason why Santa Clara cannot hang around again with a more normal shooting night. Santa Clara is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams with winning home records.


Bobcats +3

Do not look now but the Charlotte Bobcats are starting to become competitive, as they suddenly have a very nice backcourt with Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson and Ramon Sessions coming off the bench and a hot big man in Byron Mullens, who recently returned from a sprained ankle and has averaged 18.1 points and 9.1 rebounds in seven games since returning. The Bobcats are seeking a rare winning streak after winning in Orlando last night and they already beat the Detroit Pistons once this season on the road in Auburn Hills. The Detroit defense may struggle with Charlotte’s newfound versatility, as the Pistons are permitting 100.8 points per game on 47.8 percent shooting the last five games. The underdogs are 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

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Bob Balfe

New York Knicks +3.5

The last two times these teams have met its be a real snooze fest. I expect the same tonight, but give the edge to the Knicks who are a little bit more healthy right now. There should be rust from both sides tonight after the all star break. With a healthy Carmelo New York can hang with just about anybody in this league. Take the Knicks.


Oklahoma State -1

Oklahoma State beat Kansas on the road. Not many teams have done that in a long time. There comes a point where you have to start to think Oklahoma City is a better basketball team than Kansas. I watched the TCU game last night. How that team beat Kansas is beyond me. Talent is talent and good quality teams don't lose to TCU like teams even on bad nights. I'm not drinking the Kansas cool aid. Take Oklahoma State.

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Tom Barton

Utah -3

We can sit down and write about recent play, history, or pure meaning of this game but I want to start with home court advantage. The Jazz traditionally have one of the best home records in the league and their home court this year has been nothing short of excellent. The Jazz carry a 20-6 home record while the Warriors are under .500 on the road.

Utah has won 11 of the last 13 at home and own this Warriors teams. Golden State is trending the wrong way as they have lost 6 straight games and the reason why is very simple, defense or lack there of. The Warriors are giving up 118.0 points per game over the losing streak and have lost by an average of 18.4 points. Now the nightmare run may continue tonight as this team simply is owned by the Jazz.

The Warriors have lost 49 of 60 in Salt Lake City including the playoffs and should have the same sort of struggles yet again tonight.

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