Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February 15

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February 15

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Georgetown at Cincinnati 
The Hoyas look to take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 home games. Georgetown is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (+3 1/2)

Game 801-802: Columbia at Brown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 48.933; Brown 52.690
Dunkel Line: Brown by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Columbia by 4
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+4)

Game 803-804: Cornell at Yale (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 51.360; Yale 52.343
Dunkel Line: Yale by 1
Vegas Line: Yale by 5
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+5)

Game 805-806: Princeton at Dartmouth (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 57.189; Dartmouth 51.569
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (+9 1/2)

Game 807-808: Pennsylvania at Harvard (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 47.062; Harvard 62.405
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 11
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-11)

Game 809-810: WI-Milwaukee at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 43.590; Youngstown State 57.660
Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 12
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (-10)

Game 811-812: Georgetown at Cincinnati (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 69.944; Cincinnati 70.035
Dunkel Line: Even; 113
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 117
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (+3 1/2); Under

Game 813-814: WI-Green Bay at Cleveland State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 58.557; Cleveland State 53.071
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 5 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 4 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-4 1/2); Over

Game 815-816: Iona at Manhattan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 58.383; Manhattan 54.571
Dunkel Line: Iona by 4; 140
Vegas Line: Iona by 2 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-2 1/2); Under

Game 817-818: Niagara at Marist (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 56.967; Marist 47.026
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 10
Vegas Line: Niagara by 4
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-4)

NHL

Dallas at Vancouver   
The Stars look to bounce back from their 7-4 loss to Calgary and build on their 12-4 record in their last 16 games following a defeat by 3 goals or more. Dallas is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+170)

Game 51-52: Boston at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.729; Buffalo 11.472
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+125); Over

Game 53-54: Pittsburgh at Winnipeg (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.162; Winnipeg 10.741
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135); Under

Game 55-56: Philadelphia at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.211; New Jersey 12.141
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-145); Under

Game 57-58: Anaheim at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.294; Detroit 11.546
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+115); Over

Game 59-60: San Jose at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.304; Chicago 12.502
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-145); Over

Game 61-62: St. Louis at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.524; Calgary 10.462
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Under

Game 63-64: Dallas at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.322; Vancouver 11.435
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+170); Over

Game 65-66: Columbus at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.246; Los Angeles 11.504
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-210); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-210); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February 15

Marc Lawrence

Princeton vs. Dartmouth
Pick: Princeton

When the Tigers take on the Bears in an Ivy League battle at Dartmouth Friday evening, Princeton will enter the game off a loss as 11-point favorites at home against.  That's a good omen for the visitors tonight as Princeton is 4-0 ATS in games after being upset by the Eli.  The Tigers are also 4-0 ATS in their last four Ivy League skirmishes when taking the court off an upset loss.  With the visiting team a sparkling 24-9 ATS in this series, we'll play the percentages and back the better team here tonight.  We recommend a 1-unit play on Princeton.

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David Chan

Boston vs. Buffalo
Pick: Under

Boston is 8-1-2 and is coming off a 4-3 shootout loss to the Rangers on the 12th.

Tuukka Rask had 26 saves.

''We kind of dug ourselves a hole of our own doing, but at the same time you have to appreciate that we never gave up,'' Boston coach Claude Julien said after. ''I don't think we're going to get carried away thinking this was a great situation.''

Note though that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in three of four vs. division opponents this year.

Buffalo is 5-8-1 and is coming a 2-0 loss at Ottawa on the 12th.

Goaltender Ryan Miller continues to be a bright spot though, and had 29 saves in the setback.

Note that Buffalo has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four after a loss by 2 goals or more in its previous contest.

These teams played on February 10th, and the Bruins would come away with the 3-1 victory. In fact, three of the last five in the series have gone "under" the posted number. I believe these divisional foes battle tough again, and would recommend a second look at the "under" in this one as well!

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Art Aronson

Columbus vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Under

Both teams come into this contest looking to get back on track. The Blue Jackets though just fired general manager Scott Howson, and replaced him with Jarmo Kekalainen, the first Finnish GM in league history. This is the first game of a six game road trip for Columbus, after losing 3-1 to Edmonton on Sunday, and then breaking a three-game slide with a 6-2 win over the Sharks on Monday. "Unfortunately something like that happens because of our performance on the ice," Jackets' defenseman Jack Johnson said of the managerial shift yesterday. "But it's our job as a team not let anything derail us, we have to keep moving forward and get ready to try to win a game on Friday," (Columbus has seen the total go under the number in four of six this year when revenging a loss vs. an opponent). This is indeed a revenge game for Columbus after it lost 4-2 on the road to LA on February 5th. The Blue Jackets have had a hell of a time vs. Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick, who is 8-2-0 with a 1.99 GAA in his last ten starts against them. To make matters worse for the Blue Jackets, they've gone 0-for-39 on the power-play vs. LA (interestingly, LA has seen the total go under the number in three of five this year vs. teams with losing records). I think that there are overwhelming factors that all point to a low-scoring contest between these two Western conference foes.

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Alex Smart

Detroit -129

The Ducks might be off to fast start , but Im still not still sold on them, and waiting for a collapse. Meanwhile, the injury riddled Red Wings, had their three game winning streak stopped by the Blues on Wednesday, and will now be motivated to get redemption. Despite of the missing bodies, the Red Wings with the likes of captain Zetterberg , in top form, will be hard to defeat! It must be noted that the Ducks are 7-31-1 in the last 39 meetings in Detroit.Red Wings are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February 15

Rob Vinciletti

Iona -2½

Iona has several solid angles in their favor here tonight. They have a solid RPI Advantage ranked 118 compared to 224 for Manhattan. Iona is 30-9 off a conference win and 6-2 as a road favorite of 3 or less. In games vs losing teams they are 35-7 straight up and 23-5 vs teams who score 65 or less points per game. They have lost 3 straight to the spread a role which finds them covering 6 of 8. Manhattan has lost 26 of the last 35 vs teams with winning records an 6 of the last 7 vs teams who average 77 or more points per game. In games vs teams ranked 100 to 150 in the RPI Scale they are 1-6 this season. Look for Iona to get the win and cover here tonight.

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Dave Cokin

Columbia vs Brown
Pick: Brown

Columbia and Brown are each sitting at 2-4 in Brain Chain play. It's therefore not a game that's going to impact the conference race to any extent. But there a couple of factors that would seem to point to the Bears grabbing the win tonight. Columbia is off a very nice win against Harvard. The Lions lit it up from outside in that contest and off such a good game, I would not be at all surprised to see them toss in a clunker tonight. As for Brown, they've actually had a couple of nice wins at home, defeating both Providence and Niagara. The Lions are the better team, but it's not by a whole lot and the situation favors the home team. Brown plus the points for tonight's free opinion.

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Jim Feist

St. Louis vs Calgary
Pick: Under

St. Louis continues its road trip and the under is 8-3-6 in the Blues last 17 vs. the NHL Northwest division. They take on a Calgary team that played with electricity the last game, a 7-4 win over Dallas, though they got only 23 shots on goal. When these teams meet its been nothing but defense with the under 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, as well as 18-6-2 under the total in the last 26 meetings in Calgary. Play the Blues/Flames under the total.

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Don Best Consensus

Princeton vs Dartmouth
Pick: Princeton

The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings when Princeton and Dartmouth square off. Princeton is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 in Ivy League play.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February 15

John Ryan

Iona at Manhattan College
Play: Manhattan College

The simulator shows a high probability that Manhattan will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-26 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2007. Play on an underdog that is a horrible offensive team scoring <=63 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing between 74 to 78 PPG and after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less. This system underscores the matchup I really like about this game and that is the fact that Iona just doesn?t play defense. Ioan may rank second in the nation averaging 82.6 PPG, but they also rank 337th allowing 77.3 PPG. They are horrid defending the perimeter allowing 38% shooting from beyond the arc for a 316th ranking with 8.1 3-point shots made per game ranking 341st. Manhattan can control the pace of play and contain the run-and-gun Ioan style. The better defense is going to win this game so take Manhattan.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February 15

Jimmy Boyd

Georgetown +3.5

The wrong team appears to be favored in this game. The Hoyas have been good at stepping up in a big game which explains why they are 11-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Bearcats have lost two of their last three games while the Hoyas have won six in a row straight up and against the spread. There seem to be some coaches that keep the pedal to the floor late in a game and others that play a bit more conservative. Playing as a home favorite it is usually best to have an aggressive coach if you want to cover the spread. The Bearcat’s Mick Cronin is certainly not an aggressive coach which is why he is 22-46 ATS as a home favorite or pick as the coach of Cincinnati. Against common opponents the Hoyas are 7-2 overall and 8-1 ATS compared to a 5-4 straight up performance and 3-6 ATS from Cincinnati. I will take the team with the better record on the same strength of schedule and the team that has the better defense. Hoyas plus the points is the play in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February 15

SPORTS WAGERS

Anaheim +119 over DETROIT

OT included. Detroit has allowed 36 goals in 13 games. Not terrible but it does mask a current issue. The Red Wings are allowing far too many quality scoring chances and against this group of sharpshooters it could spell trouble. The Wings aren’t scoring as much as previous years either. They miss the presence of Tomas Holstrom in front of the net in addition to the 30 minutes that Nicklas Lindstrom logged every night for 20 years. For the first time in years, the Red Wings are not a lock to make the playoffs.

Because the Ducks play on the West Coast, we’re not sure people realize how good this team really is. 12 games in and the Ducks are 9-2-1. They rank among the leaders in both goals scored and goals against and it’s not like they’ve played an easy schedule either. Anaheim opponents win % sits at .626, making it the most difficult in the league. The Ducks can win shootouts as they did in recent 6-5 and 7-4 wins over St. Louis and Los Angeles respectively. They can win tight games as they displayed in recent 3-1 and 2-1 wins over Minnesota and San Jose. As a pooch against a team that is struggling defensively like the Red Wings, there is nothing but value on this unheralded visitor.


Dallas +171 over VANCOUVER

OT included. After a slightly shaky start, the Canucks have shot up the standings with six straight wins, outscoring their opposition by a sick 19-6 combined. However, a close look reveals that only one team in the group that Vancouver disposed of is currently above .500. That’s not to knock the Canucks. They’re certainly among the elite teams but in this season of parity and unpredictability, the price in this one will dictate the play.

Dallas is coming off a 7-4 loss to the Flames but the score is worse than the performance. Backup goaltender Richard Bachman was simply awful, allowing six goals on 16 shots before getting yanked. Dallas scored four times on 34 shots. Prior to that, the Stars had won five of six games and they’re one of only two clubs to defeat the Ducks this season. Winning in Vancouver is not an easy task but Dallas is a quality club that has scored 17 times over it last five games and that is very capable of defeating anyone on a given night. For this one, the reward outweighs the risk.

Pass CBB

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Dave Price

Manhattan +2.5

Manhattan enters this contest with plenty of confidence and momentum on its side as it has ratted off 3 consecutive wins, including a big 22-point victory as a 9.5-point dog at Fairfield last time out. The Jaspers have fed off of such performances recently. In fact, they are 8-1 ATS the last 2 season following an upset win. They have won by an average score of 73.6 to 65.2 in this situation. Manhattan is only 9-15, but this experienced team has been very competitive, especially against quality competition. In fact, the Jaspers are 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win. They are a soft 2-8 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season and have lost by an average score of 80.7 to 78.3 in this situation. Take Manhattan.

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Jeff Alexander

Pennsylvania +11.5

Harvard is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. It is on a 5-13 ATS slide as a home favorite or pickem and has defeated Penn by more than 11 points just twice in the last 23 meetings. Penn is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. It has lost these games on average but only by 6.1 points. Bet Penn.

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Jack Jones

Brown +4

The Brown Bears are showing solid value as a 4-point home underdog to the Columbia Lions tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Bears as a free pick as they look to build on their solid 5-2 home record this season.

The home team has won four straight meetings in this series. That includes a 94-78 win by Brown last season as a 6-point underdog. The Bears were also victorious in their previous home meeting with the Lions, winning 87-79 as a 2-point dog in 2011. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

The biggest reason Brown is undervalued here is the fact that it has lost three straight road games coming in. Those three have been against solid competition in Harvard, Princeton and Pennsylvania. Now, they return home where they have played their best basketball of the season to stop the bleeding.

Columbia has no business being favored on the road with how it is playing of late, either. It has lost four of its last five games overall with road losses to Pennsylvania and Princeton, and home losses to Cornell and Dartmouth. The Lions are getting too much respect for their home win over Harvard last time out.

Brown is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. Brown is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games overall. The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Bet Brown Friday.

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Wunderdog

Game: Boston at Buffalo
Pick: Boston -135

The Boston Bruins are on the fast track as they enter this contest with Buffalo with an 8-1-2 mark through 11 games. Boston has really gotten things done on the back-side of the ice, and in front of the net, with over half their opponents scoring one time or less. Buffalo jumped out quickly, winning their first two games, but have won just two since. And unlike the Bruins, they haven't been able to stop many attacks, allowing 3 goals or more in 10 games on the season. The Bruins have dominated the Northeast as they are 21-5 in their last 26 against them while the Sabres now 0-6 when following a game where they scored 2 or less. Play on Boston.

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Bruce Marshall

Green Bay vs. Cleveland St.
Pick: Green Bay

Fundamentals look very tricky for Cleveland State side that was abused on the glass (to the tune of a 41-18 rebound disadvantage) when getting bombed 77-50 on Jan. 19 at Green Bay. Which hardly surprises Horizon League insiders, who expected that the Vikings could be in trouble against bigger frontlines after top inside threat F Anton Grady went down with an injury in late November.  The Fighting Phoenix indeed played ping-pong on the glass vs. CSU in the first meeting when 6-7 frosh F Jordan Fouse had his game of the year (17 & 10), while 7-1 C Alec Brown (14 ppg) & 6-9 F Brennan Cougill (10 ppg) are other problem matchups for Gary Waters’ crew.  Brian Wardle’s Green Bay (7-3 SU and vs. the line last 10) positioning itself for a favorable seed in the upcoming conference tourney.   Play UW Green Bay

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Joe Gavazzi

Princeton -9½

The Big Green has made some noise this year, like leading Harvard by 10 with under five at Lavietes, upsetting Yale on this court, 71-62, and dumping Columbia 60-57 as double digit dog. But Leede Arena is the weakest venue of all Ivy home courts, where the Big Green stands 16-30 SU 3+Y (3-5 SU TY). And tonight they are in wrong place at wrong time. They host an angry Tiger who has had six days to fume over Saturday night home loss to Yale, 69-65 as -12. Expect full focus from the Tiger tonight, who under second year HC Henderson (ex-Princeton player), is 14-7 ATS away, including 4-1 ATS this year. Expect the Big Green to melt under the emotionless stare of Ian Hummer, the best player in the league who led the Tigers to wins of 24 and 12 last year against the Green.


Columbia -4

Brown is a nicely improved team for first year HC Martin. They won their only Ivy home game, 65-51 vs Yale. A 2-4 SU league record is in no small part a function of 5 consecutive road games, including league leaders Harvard and Princeton. But it was a lost weekend in the South, when they lost 71-48 to Penn and 63-46 to Princeton last Saturday and Sunday. Little advantage in Pizzitola where the Bruins are 7-15 SU vs Ivy visitors 3+Y. Far prefer Columbia (as does the line maker) despite their 2-4 SU record. Third year HC Smith (St. Mary’s assistant) has five RS who have been in his system for nearly three years. The buy sign was the 78-63 upset of Harvard last weekend, meaning the Lions haven’t given up on the season. This would be rated higher if I was assured that one of their best player, Mullins (ankle) would make post.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February 15

Harry Bondi

GEORGETOWN (+4) over Cincinnati

Cincinnati has owned Georgetown recently haven taken the last four meetings including a 68-64 win at the Verizon Center last month but the red-hot Hoyas gets their revenge tonight. Georgetown has won and covered six in a row including three wins over ranked teams. Defense has keyed the Hoyas win streak as they have allowed more than 60 points just once in the last month. Cincinnati is led by Big East Player of the Year candidate Sean Kilpatrick and has also been playing well of late but have struggled against the number at home where they are just 1-7 ATS. Hoyas are hotter right now, playing with revenge and have the trends on their side. Lets back Georgetown plus the points.

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Bob Balfe

Cincinnati -4 over Georgetown

This Cincinnati team will never win pretty and that is exactly what I like about them in a year with so much uncertainty. Great backcourt and guys who can rebound and block shots. Everyone on this team contributes and that is why I like them tonight and I like them to run deep into the tournament. This is my long shot team to win it all. Take Cincinnati.

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