Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday February 12

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday February 12

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama at GeorgiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The under is 8-0 in Bama's last 8 vs. the SEC. The under has gone 20-6 in the Tide's last 26 overall.

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David BanksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Portland / Miami Over 200FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Two teams that are currently on 'over' streaks could be in line for another when the Miami Heat (34-14, 24-24 ATS) host the Portland Trail Blazers (25-26, 22-27-2 ATS) at American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL on Tuesday night at 7:35 ET in a game carried on NBA TV. Yes, this could be a letdown spot for the Heat after double-digit wins over the two Los Angeles teams, but when Miami has taken nights off this season, it has usually shown up in a lack of  defensive intensity. Speaking of defense, it has become a foreign concept to  a Portland team that has allowed 106.0 points per game over the last five  games.
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The Heat have now gone 'over' on three straight games, as before hanging up  111 points on the Clippers and 107 on the Lakers, they were involved in a  114-108 shootout win over the Houston Rockets. Offense has not been an issue  for Miami this season as it ranks fifth in the NBA in scoring at 102.8  points per game while leading the league on field goal percentage at an amazing  49.2 percent overall and ranking third in three-point shooting at 38.6  percent. LeBron James has been playing like a man possessed lately, as his  32-point effort vs. the Lakers Sunday gave him five consecutive 30-point games, and  he has unbelievably hit on 49 of his last 65 field goal attempts for an  unheard of 75.4 percent success rate! Also the Heat are at full strength again  after Chris Bosh, Ray Allen and Dwayne Wade all had the flu this week with  the former two missing some games. The Miami defense is ranked 12th in points  against at 96.6 points per game, a big drop-off after ranking fourth last  season while allowing only 92.5 points per contest, although one gets the  sense that they can turn on the intensity defensively at any time. This does  not seem like the spot to do so however after two big marquee wins.
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The Portland defense ranks 21st in points allowed at 99.3 per game and 25th  in field goal percentage against at 46.4 percent, but the Blazers have been  even worse than that while going 'over' in the last five games, allowing  those opponents to shoot an unbearable 49.4 percent! The defense has been so  bad that Portland allowed the Orlando Magic to snap a 12-game losing streak  in a 110-104 loss on Sunday. If the Blazers could allow 110 points to  Orlando, how are they supposed to contain the Miami offense with LeBron currently  in raging form? The Portland offense has actually been doing its part,  topping 100 points in four of those five games, and the one time it failed to it  scored 99 points in a five-point loss at Dallas, so the Blazers should  continue to put points on the board vs. a potentially relaxed Miami defense. Also,  Portland's Rookie of the Year candidate Damian Lillard figured to bounce  back well after scoring a season-low four points vs. the Magic, just the third  time this season he was held to single-digits. The first time it happened,  he bounced back with 29 points and the second time it happened, he came back  with a 16-point, 8-rebound and 5-assist effort.
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The 'over' is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings overall and 4-1 in  the last five meetings in Miami. The 'over' is also 7-1 in the last eight  Miami games following a straight up win.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday February 12

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Portland at MiamiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PortlandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Miami Heat needed a late surge to overcome the Los Angeles Lakers in their last game. It is most difficult for a team that won a championship the prior year to become motivated enough to overcome the huge lines they have to face the following year. Miami is 34-14 on the season and certainly is an elite team, but they have found themselves often coming up short against big numbers as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when laying -10 or more. Portland finds themselves often a player short, but remains a highly competitive team. They seem to play just well enough to lose. They are 9-11 over their last 20 games, but have been beaten by 10 or more just two times in the 20 games, so they have shown the ability to hang tough every time on the floor. Take the points and go with Portland.

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Warriors -5 over RocketsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston won this game a few days ago and hit a record number of NBA 3’s in that game. I just do not expect them to be on fire like that again. Live by the 3 and you will also die by the 3. Harden is banged up for Houston and I think this is a game in which the Warriors want revenge at home after getting embarrassed like they did. Also this total is set really high. Would not shock me to see a lower scoring game. Take Golden State.
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Cincinnati -6.5 over VillanovaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This Bearcats team is my sleeper team. Last year I gave you Indiana at 40/1 and if they didn’t draw Kentucky so early they would have played in the title game. This year I think Cincinnati will turn the page from their sweet 16 run last year. They are at 50/1 and its great value with their not being one dominate team this year in all of college basketball. I like the way this team plays under the basket on defense and think they simply out match the Nova team. Take Cincinnati.

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Indiana St vs. Missouri StFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Small play on this Mizzou Conference game in which I have my reasons for this play. Number #1 it's a bad Total,These 2 Teams Indiana St & Missouri Valley will not get much attention from the oddsmaker, especially in a night where the oddsmaker has Michigan/Michigan St and Kentucky/Florida to worry about. In the first meeting between these Teams this Season, Indiana St won 68-60 and 128-127 is what I made this Total. Ken Pomeroy ratings have this game at 126. Indiana St games have gone Over 120 in 8 of their last 10, while 7 Missouri St games have gone Over 120 in their last 10. Playing Over totals like 120 in NCAAB is like playing Over 36 in the NFL, a couple of scoring spurts or foul calls and it's alot easier to get the Over breaks than Under at this price.

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Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana St. vs. Missouri St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Indiana St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When these two teams met in Terre Haute last month, Indiana State’s defense positively stifled Missouri State’s limited offense after halftime, outscoring the Bears by a dozen in the second half of a comfortable eight point win.  There’s no reason to expect anything significantly different tonight.
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The Bears can’t find the bottom of the basket.  They shot just 16-51 from the floor in a 29 point loss at Wichita State over the weekend  after being held to 37 points at Northern Iowa in their previous game, another double digit defeat thanks to their 15-55 shooting effort.
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Don’t expect home cookin’ to change Missouri State’s offensive acumen in any dramatic way – they’ve shot under 40% at home for the entire season.  Leading scorer and assist man Anthony Downing hits less than 40% of his shot attempts, while dishing fewer than three assists per game.  As a team, the Bears average only nine assists per game; bad news against the Sycamores stout defense.
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Indiana State has been a consistent moneymaker for their supporters all year.  They’ve gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine road tilts, and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall; still an undervalued commodity at this late stage of the season.   The Sycamores have road wins and covers at Northern Iowa and Wichita State already in Missouri Valley Conference play; two teams that are one heck of a lot better than the Missouri State squad they’ll face tonight!  Take Indiana State.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UTAH +5½ over Oklahoma CityFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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As we approach the stretch run of the season, the Thunder (39-12) own the second best record in the NBA, just percentage points behind the Spurs. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are logging huge minutes due to the Thunders’ one weakness, that being a lack of depth. OKC has beaten the Jazz eight of the past nine contests and with a statement home game on deck against Miami on Thursday night’s nationally televised game, this is a game where we could catch the visitor napping. Oklahoma City has won four straight, all by more than 20 points, with the average victory being 25.3 points. Yes, they’re a very good team but those numbers are unsustainable. Plus, blowing out the Suns in consecutive games can create some complacency.
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The Jazz should be ready. They are a completely different team at home, having won 19 of 25 games in their own building. They figure to be the more focused group tonight in front of a packed house of passionate, screaming Jazz fans than they were in a poor showing at Sacramento on Saturday night. There’s no question that Utah is the inferior squad here but if the better team won and covered every game, we’d all be rich. This is one of those times when the home underdog is in a good situational spot and a spot where upsets commonly occur.   
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Carolina +137 over NEW JERSEYFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Devils lead the East with 19 points after reeling off five consecutive wins. A dozen games in, New Jersey has just one loss in regulation time. It’s all well-deserved too as they continue to play a methodical, 60-minute game with each skater playing its role to near perfection. However, the Devils stock is a little too high and that affords us an opportunity. They’re coming off back-to-back wins over the Penguins this past weekend. Six of New Jersey’s last seven games have seen them play its biggest rivals. They have another rival up next in the Flyers. The Devils are feeling great but they’re not unbeatable.
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Enter the Hurricanes fresh off a 6-4 win last night on the Island. Carolina will play its third game in four days here but it’s not that tough a trip as all three cities (Philly, Long Island, and New Jersey) are in close proximity. The ‘Canes are heating up and it’s much easier to play three in four when you’re winning. Carolina has picked up points in four straight and seven of its past nine. They’ve scored three goals or more in five straight. Eric Staal is playing the best hockey of his career on a line with Alexander Semin and Jiri Tlusty and the second line that features Jeff Skinner and Jordan Staal might just be the best second line in the NHL. It’s all about playing value and the Hurricanes at prices like this one are too dangerous to not consider
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Washington +118 over FLORIDAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Capitals may be turning a corner. Prior to defeating these same Panthers on Saturday night, Washington had dropped five of six but three of those games (all 3-2 defeats) could have just as easily ended in their favor. The Caps have really cut down on scoring chances allowed and there were plenty more positive signs in that convincing win on Saturday. Four different Capitals scored goals in the win and 10 players tallied at least one point. Alex Ovechkin scored his fourth goal of the season and now has five points in his last four games. The Caps scored a power-play goal for the fourth consecutive game and are now 5 for 11 (45.5%) in their last five games. Early in the year, when expectations were high, the Caps were overvalued. With the worst record in the NHL, they are now undervalued and that’s presents a ‘buy’ opportunity.
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The Panthers return home from a four-game trip and their biggest issue remains goaltending. Jose Theodore has been wildly inconsistent with a 3.41 GAA and an intolerable .896 save percentage. He now sits in favor of Scott Clemmenson and Clemmenson’s numbers are worse (3.77 GAA .853 save %). Of the Panthers four wins, two have been worthy. Of the Panthers six losses, five of them have been by three goals or more and four of those have been by four goals or more. No team in the NHL is getting beat as badly as these Panthers and that makes them prime fade material.
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WINNIPEG -½ +129 over PhiladelphiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. After getting trounced last night in Toronto, a response is expected by Philadelphia but we have our doubts. The Flyers are slower than most teams and it’s not working. They come in with a 1-6 road record and they’ve had very little success playing against Winnipeg, having been torched by 22 goals in the last four games they’ve played against the Jets with three of those at the Wells Fargo Center. The Jets have beaten the Flyers in eight of the past nine games and scored five goals or more in four of the eight wins.         
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For the Jets, a 5-5-1 record doesn’t seem so great but the downside stems from a bad streak that saw them lose three straight on the road while being outscored 18-9. Since that stretch, the Jets have won two of three with only loss coming against the Maple Leafs in which they allowed just 18 shots on net. Over its past two home games, Winnipeg has allowed a combined 37 shots on goal. The Jets also get Dustin Byfuglien back for this one. With two of the best puck-moving defensemen in the league in Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom and a group of speedy forwards, Philly may once again be playing catch-up.

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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis Grizzlies -9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Memphis Grizzlies have simply owned the Sacramento Kings this season, and I look for that to be the case again tonight in their third meeting. Memphis has the big men inside in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph that overpower the likes of DeMarcus Cousins and Jason Thompson, making this an excellent match-up for them.
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The Grizzlies won the first meeting of the season 113-81 at Sacramento on January 7th as a 4-point favorite. They came back home on January 18th and prevailed 85-69. Their two victories this season have come by an average of 24 points/game.
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Memphis is 20-8 SU & 17-9-2 ATS at home this season. It is limiting opponents to just 87.0 points/game at home this year. Sacramento is a woeful 5-21 SU & 11-15 ATS on the road this season. It is yielding 103.3 points/game overall this year.
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Sacramento is 1-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. The Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Grizzlies are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home meetings with Sacramento. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

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Valparaiso at Wright StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Wright StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Not a bad spot for Wright State tonight. The Raiders are a home avenger and they're riding a little positive flow coming into this game off back to back wins and covers. The first meeting was close enough, and I would expect that to be the case tonight as well. Valparaiso is a little banged up right now, and while I'm not sure they'll actually be missing anyone, they've got a few guys who will take the court nursing some aches and pains. I can't see this being anything but tight, but I'll side with Wright State to eke out the win and cover tonight.

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Minnesota/ Vancouver Under 5: Really I just see one team scoring in this one and that is the Canucks. Minnesota has scored just 1 goal during regulation in each of their last 5 games and they have have scored just 5 total goals in their last 5 games vs Vancouver. The Canucks have been very strong in the net this year as they have allowed just 2 gpg on the year, which is 5th in the league and they haven't allowed more than 1 goal in each of their last 5 games during regulation. Vancouver has scored 9 goals in their last 2 games, but the Wild have allowed no more than 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 games. Minnesota is 7th in the league in shots per game against, while Vancouver is 20th in the league in offensive spg. Both teams will find the scoring tough to come by as I see about 3 goals in this one.

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Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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GEORGIA -1 over Alabama: Georgia had a slow start to their SEC season, but they have really picked it up late, winning their last 5 games, including road wins at Texas A&M, South Carolina and Tennessee. The Dawgs are a solid 9-5 at home and hold teams to just 58.5 ppg on 37% shooting on their home floor. Not good news for an Alabama squad that has averaged just 53.4  ppg on 37.7% shooting in their last 5 games overall, while in their last 3 on the road they have put up 49.3 ppg. The Alabama defense is tough just like Georgia's, but the Dawgs offense is a bit better right now (60.6 ppg last 5), they are on a roll and have this game at home. Alabama is 3-5 on the road this year and I look for Georgia to win this one late.
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Kentucky +10.5 over FLORIDA: I know that the Gators have been rolling at home this year, but Kentucky is starting to figure things out as all their freshmen talent is starting to gel. The Cats have won 5 in a row, including a 13 point road win at Ole Miss. Florida has outscored their opponents by 28.5 ppg at home, but they beat Ole Miss by just 14, so I would say the Cats victory over the Rebels was a bit more impressive. The Gators are also missing Yeguete for this one and he is one of their better defenders. Kentucky has averaged 76.4 ppg in their last 5 and they are 30th in the nation in defensive efficiency. I expect the Cats to come up with enough plays to keep this one in single digits.

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Miami/ Portland Under 200: A few games ago I had the Under in the Miami/ Charlotte game and it was a winner. The Bobcats are a team that Miami should have been able to name their score against, but in my writeup I also stated that that was the kind of game that their offense will take the night off. Miami did hit 99 points in that one, but Charlotte does allow 100+ points on the road and Miami could have had a whole bunch more vs them if they wanted to . I feel this is another spot that the Heat will do just enough offensively to win this game, especially coming off Houston, the Lakers and the Clippers and with Oklahoma City on deck. Clearly a flat spot for Miami and I don't expect high octane offenses from them in this one. Portland has put up 101.5 ppg on their current road trip, but Orlando, Dallas, Minnesota and Houston play some of the worst defense in the league. that is not the case with Miami. The Heat are 12th in points allowed and 7th in defensive FG %, and they come in allowing just 94.6 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 96.3 ppg at home. This may be the most telling stat about the Portland offense. Portland averages 95 ppg on the road this year, but they have played 7 road games vs top 12 defenses and have averaged just 87.2 ppg, with those games averaging just 180 ppg and just one of these games put up more than 183 points. I see the Heat playing a bit close to the vest offensively tonight as this is one of those games that their offense will take the night off, while their defense will be stellar as always. Portland cant score on the road vs good defensive teams and they also slow the game down. All that will happen here as well as this game is played in the 180's.   
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Phoenix/ Lakers Under 201.5: The Lakers could be in an offensive flat spot here are they are off a long road trip. The Lakers haven't been putting up the big offensive numbers as earlier in the year, because they have been playing a bit more controlled at that end of the floor. Defense has been a disaster for the Lakers for the most part this year,but they allow just 97 ppg at home and Phoenix has averaged just 95 ppg on the road and they have averaged just 90.5 ppg in their last 19 games, hitting the century mark just once over that span.I expect the Lakers to keep them under wraps in this one. Phoenix does allow 104.4 ppg on the road, but I just don't see the Lakers going all out on offense here, especially coming off the long road trip and with the Clippers on deck. these teams met in Phoenix at the End of January and just 178 points were scored in that one. I don't expect more than 190 in this one.

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Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Suns +9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Not sold on LA laying any type of number like this to anyone, especially a division oppoenent.  Going to continue to fade LA in this sport after going against them on Sunday against the Heat. The Suns offense has been in the tank thge last 5 games at just under 90 ppg but the Lakers defense in their last 5 games has given up 99 ppg.  Lakers win, but Suns covber the number, and remember 2 weeks ago LA lost by 6 at Phoenix.

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Sammy PFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Rangers at BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The New York Rangers face the Boston Bruins for the third time this season after they split the first two meetings.  Rangers head coach John Tortorella recently shook up the lines and it has paid off with plenty of goals coming from outside the big three of Nash, Gaborik, and Richards the last two games. Boston is a very tough place to play, and this is a very good and deep team, but I see it as a tough spot for the Bruins as decent size favorites.  This line is a bit too inflated and we find good value backing New York in a situation that sees Boston in a "sandwich" game.  Boston played in Buffalo Sunday night, and they play in Buffalo Friday night after tonight’s home tilt.  I never like to back a team that comes back home to play just one game before going back onto the road. Boston is just 8-12 (all 20 games as a home favorite) dating back to the 2009-10 season in this situation.  This is a very good opportunity to grab a live dog in a special situational spot.

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Florida -10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In the tipoff of Super Tuesday, the emerging Kentucky Wildcats go for the conference lead against the Florida Gators who until their shocking upset at Arkansas, appeared to have the league title to themselves. But tonight they enter following three consecutive spread losses and without the services of big man Yeguete (knee). In addition, starting big man Murphy (ankle), the ultimate stretch four, will be compromised. That leaves the paint to Kentucky's quickly blooming frosh, Noel, who leads the country with nearly five blocks per game. Favor Calipari and his NCAA Championship pedigree in the role of road dog where he is 27-13 ATS, and with momentum as he is 70-45 ATS following three or more conference wins. But before you take off the rubber band, understand that Florida HC Billy D. is a remarkable 26-6 ATS following consecutive spread losses vs an opponent off a win. Must note that in 23 games this season, Kentucky has lost by double digits only twice.
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Michigan -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In the second half of the Super Tuesday ESPN double header, my allegiance is with the home standing Spartans. With all the media hype surrounding Michigan this season, this is actually a perception reality game. Michigan's Trey Burke gets all the ink as the best point guard in the nation. He is aided by tremendous perimeter power in Hardaway, Stauskas, and GR III. The Wolves rotating trio of interior players is filling that role beautifully. But in their last two road games, they lost at Indiana and Wisconsin (in OT). As a result, they find themselves trailing Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the Big 10 standings. Surely they will get the bounce, as HC Beilein has a career record of 36-16 ATS following a conference loss. But before you talk yourself in to a bounce back play on the Wolves, consider the momentum, home court, and pedigree of the host. They surely have their own motivation, with the realization that this is the first time since 1998 that Michigan has been the higher rated team when these teams get together. That is characterized by the fact that MI St is 19-6 SU in this series. In addition, consider the strong home court of the Breslin Center where State is 31-1 SU L2Y, including 14-0 TY, allowing just 35% from the field. Crafty 18th year HC Izzo, gives away nothing on the bench to the shrewd Beilein. Home team wins this one at the buzzer.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday February 12

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RUTGERS -4 over Seton HallFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Traditionally, these two New Jersey schools have played really close games over the years with 12 of the past 13 being decided by six points or less. That gives appeal to the visitor but we just can’t get on board with that. Aside from injuries to key personnel, the Pirates are a turnover machine, ranking 332nd in the country in coughing it up. On the road, where the Hall is 2-6, that’s suicide. Both clubs are near the bottom of the Big East but unlike Rutgers, Seton Hall continues to get blown out by superior competition.
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Despite being 3-8 in the conference, the Scarlet Knights have been mostly competitive with a 6-point loss to Georgetown, a three-point loss at Notre Dame, and an eight-point defeat at Cincinnati, They also have a five-point home win over Pitt. Rutgers strength of schedule ranks 20th in the nation while the Pirates SOS ranks 81st. Rutgers has played seven of its past 10 games against ranked opponents and that should have them very ready to take this huge step down in class. Seton Hall has Syracuse at home up next and being so erratic and looking ahead to that one, they should be easy prey for the host.

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