Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February 10

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February 10

Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Carolina St. -3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Each of these teams is reeling. Under third year HC Brownell, Clemson enters off a pair of road losses by 7 at Boston College, and on Thursday by a count of 37 points, 78-41, at UVA. Combined with 66-62 revenge motive from an earlier loss in Raleigh, one might normally look for the home team to bounce. But under Brownell, these Tigers are just 11-22 ATS on the once proud home boards of Littlejohn Coliseum. Not to mention the fact that today's visitor has a bit to prove themselves. The Wolf Pack has been through a rough scheduling stretch, with games against NC, Virginia, Miami Fla and Duke. Following huge home court victory to break their 13 game losing streak, against rival Tarheels, State fell flat on their face in a three point loss at UVA, one point home loss at buzzer to Miami, and then got revenged by Duke on Thursday night. Remember, this is a team that was picked to win ACC, and anointed with Top Ten status at the beginning of the season. At 5-5 SU in the loop, and stepping down in class, I expect the Wolf Pack to get the bounce as they get the early tempo. And extend the lead at a pace uncomfortable for the host. Wolf Pack sweep most probable outcome.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February 10

Wunderdog

San Antonio at Brooklyn
Pick: San Antonio -2.5

Brooklyn had a fine start to the season, but that is in the rear view mirror as they are on a 6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS run. They've lost three of the last five (1-4 ATS), including a one-sided defeat at Washington and a loss to the Lakers as a favorite on this floor, 92-83.  Deron Williams has struggled to 37.5 percent shooting over the last five games and Joe Johnson has been even worse at 35.2 percent in that span. The Nets are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. San Antonio had an 11-game winning streak come to an end on Friday, but this team is deep and playing great. The Spurs are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 against the Eastern Conference!  When these teams meet the Spurs are 14-5-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings and the favorite is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. The Nets have not fared well against the Spurs in recent years, dropping 17 of the last 18 meetings and were crushed in San Antonio 104-73 on December 31. The road team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings and the Spurs are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Brooklyn. Play the Spurs.

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NHL Predictions

Bruins / Sabres Over 5.5

These two teams have met once this season with the Sabres winning a high scoring 7-4 game in Boston.  The shots in that game were 42-32 for the Bruins.  These two teams have an intense rivalry going on right now ever since Lucic ran Miller last year.  When these two teams meet it isn't uncommon to see high scores.  Last year in their 6 meetings we saw totals of 8, 7, 6, 3, 4, and 7 - with 4 of the 6 games going OVER the total.  In fact the OVER is 10-2-4 in their last 16 meetings overall, and 5-1-2 in their last 8 meetings in Buffalo.  The OVER is 25-11-2 in the Bruins last 38 road games.  The OVER is also 6-1 in the Sabres last 7 home games, and 6-1 in their last 7 games overall.  The Sabres rank 29th in the NHL allowing 3.58 goals against, but are 6th with 3.08 goals per game.  Take the OVER tonight.


Chicago Blackhawks -135

The Blackhawks enter this game with a 9-0-2 record, as they haven't lost a game in regulation time yet.  The Blackhawks are a solid 7-0-2 on the road, as they've only had 2 home games so far this year.  Also take note that their only two losses came in the shootout.  Chicago has won three straight games including a 6-2 win on Thursday in Phoenix.  The Predators are coming off a 2-1 overtime loss last night in Minnesota which puts them to 5-2-4 on the year.  They are just 1-0-2 at home this season.  Nashville has been lucky to win as many games as they have, as they are easily ranking dead last in the NHL in shots per game at just 21.5 and are also 29th in goals per game with just 2.00.  Pekka Rinne is keeping them in games as they are allowing a league best 1.82 goals against per game.  The Blackhawks are 2nd in the league scoring 3.46 goals per game and 6th allowing just 2.09 goals per game.   Take note that the Predators are 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs a team with a road winning % of .600 or higher, and they are just 1-5 in their last 6 playing in their 4th game in 6 nights (which they are tonight).  The Blackhawks have looked like one of the best teams in the NHL, while the Predators haven't looked too good despite winning 5 of their 11 games.  I'll take Chicago tonight.

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Dr. Bob

Sunday NBA Opinion

L.A. Clippers (+3) over NEW YORK

Chris Paul and Blake Griffin returned to the lineup for the Clippers on Friday in Miami but Paul was rusty and the Clips were blownout 89-111. That loss sets up Los Angeles in a very good 34-9-2 ATS subset of a 92-41-3 ATS bounce-back situation today and my ratings favor New York by just 2 points if Paul is 100%. However, it’s unclear if Paul’s poor play in Miami was a case of negative variance or if he’s not at 100% effectiveness. I’ll pass on making this game a Best Bet for that reason but I’ll lean with the Clippers plus the points.

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Sam Martin

Illinois at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota

Can't think of a bigger letdown spot than what Illinois is dealing with here today, having to play on the road against an underrated Minnesota team just a few days after launching a monster second-half comeback to upset the #1 team in the country in their 74-72 home win over Indiana. On top of all that, the victory ended a three-game losing skid and 1-6 overall run, but now the Illini have to go back to the road where they are just 1-4 (lone win came against Big Ten doormat Nebraska) and face a Golden Gophers squad that beat them by 17 points at Illinois. Minnesota finally has a break in their schedule and will look to make up ground in the Big Ten standings with a convincing win here this afternoon. Lay the number with confidence.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February 10

Dr. Bob

Opinions and Possible Best Bets

Portland (-3) over ORLANDO

Orlando has lost 12 straight games and the Magic are just 1-11 ATS in those games, so Portland has a very good chance to snap a 2 game losing streak. In fact, the Blazers’ losses at Dallas and at Houston set them up in a very good 82-24-2 ATS road bounce-back situation. My only is issue is that my ratings only favor Portland by 1 ½ points in this game even after adjusting for Orlando’s current lineup. I’ll lean with Portland at -3 or less and I’d take the Blazers in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or better.

Houston (-6) over SACRAMENTO

Sacramento is coming off a rare win last night over Utah but the Kings apply to a negative 66-134-4 ATS letdown situation tonight against a streaky Rockets team that has covered 7 of 8 games after a 9 game spread losing skid. Houston is 19-7-1 ATS after a win this season and when the Rockets win they usually win by a decent margin. This game is one of those games in which Houston will either win big or lose the game straight up. The Rockets are 10-16 straight up on the road but 9 of those 10 wins have been by 6 points or more. Sacramento, meanwhile, is 13-12 straight up at home but 10 of those 12 losses have been by 8 points or more. I’m not quite pulling the trigger on this game but I’ll lean with Houston at -6 or less.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February 10

Rob Veno

Northern Iowa at Bradley
Play: Northern Iowa

This looks to be a solid spot where fundamental and situational angles favor visiting UNI. The Panthers have recently taken their methodical offense and vice grip defense philosophies to new heights which figure to frustrate inconsistent Bradley. Over their last six games, Northern Iowa has limited MVC opponents to 50.3 ppg and they’ve totally suffocated foes from beyond the arc allowing an average of 26% (26-100) and no better than 33% during the span. Bradley’s emphasis on three-point shooting (five players with 56 attempts or more) and quicker tempo (70 possessions per game in league play) is simply not a good fit against the Panthers. Another factor in UNI’s favor is the fact that they’re overdue to snap out of their three-game shooting funk. UNI boasts a solid 52.5 effective FG% for the season but in their last three games they’ve produced three of their four lowest marks this conference season. In the prior meeting between these teams, Northern Iowa won by 31 (84-53) and registered a staggering 72.1 effective FG%. The Bradley defense ranks ninth in the 10 team MVC allowing 47.6% FGs in league play and that’s likely to be preyed upon here by UNI. Like the setup in this one for head coach Ben Jacobsen’s squad which should cover the -3 price with room to spare.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February 10

Andre Gomes

Portland / Orlando Over 195.5

Orlando with their best players available is a decent offensive team, but their effort on defense is basically non-existent, as they are all involved in trade rumors and they are putting all their effort on having good offensive performances nowadays, in order to pad their numbers. Orlando's defense hasn't been good against pick and roll ball handler plays the whole season due to the lack of effort from Jameer Nelson. Their post up defense is also poor as Dwight Howard is no longer in Orlando, so Portland's offense will have some big edges today with Damian Lillard and his pick and rolls plus LaMarcus Aldridge in the frontcourt, who has been dominant on offense lately.

On the other side, Orlando's offense has also some good edges against the Blazers's defense. After two poor offensive games where Orlando was completely shorthanded (the Magic scored 61 and 76 points in those two games), the Magic with Arron Afflalo back had a nice offensive bounce back on their last game against Cleveland by scoring 108 points. Portland's defense has been poor lately (112.04, 105.94, 119.72 and 136.51 defensive ratings over their last 4 games), so we can also expect the Magic to have a good offensive game tonight.

These two teams don't have a great defensive intensity and the game played in Portland between these two teams earlier on the season ended with a 108-108 tie in regulation. Portland and Orlando ended the game with 34 and 35 assists, something incredible, as they weren't on a good spot at the time: Orlando was starting a road trip in the West, so they had just traveled from Orlando to Portland, while the Blazers were coming back home after a tough road trip and they were also playing their 5th game in just 7 days. Still, both teams excelled offensively in that game and I expect the same to happen tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

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