Who's on the Bubble in College Basketball?
Who's on the Bubble in College Basketball?
Who's on the Bubble in College Basketball?
In betting, it's important to know which college basketball teams are fighting for at-large bids, which ones are a lock and which teams will have to win their conference tournaments to get in. Let's take a look at where the bubble teams stand as of Tuesday, January 29, with emphasis on strength of schedule and RPI. The RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) is a tool that the selection committee will look at before they select their NCAA Tournament picks.
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Who's in? Duke, Miami, Fla.,
Who is on the right track: NC State (16-4, 5-2 ACC, RPI: 36, SOS: 18).
Who needs help?: North Carolina (12-6, 3-3 ACC, RPI: 36, SOS: 17) is on track as long as they are .500 or better, UNC gets in based on their name. They have trips to Duke and Miami after facing Virginia Tech and Wake Forest..... Florida State (11-8, 3-3 ACC, RPI: 69, SOS: 29) beat Clemson at home by three after getting destroyed at Miami. A win over Maryland is solid, but then Maryland visits Tallahassee on Wednesday...and the brings us to Maryland (15-5, 3-4 ACC; RPI: 65, SOS: 96). The Terps had chances to beat Duke and North Carolina on the road and couldn’t get it done. Their non-conference schedule is very weak. They need to win at least 20 games, go two games over .500 and beat Duke at home to have a chance.
Atlantic Ten Conference:
Who's in? none.
Who is on the right track: Butler (16-3, 4-1 A10, RPI: 10, SOS: 23) did lost to La Salle on the road but handled Temple. Now that Rotnei Clarke back, it’s difficult not to see the Bulldogs back in the tournament with a great RPI and SOS, as long as they continue to win.
Who needs help?: La Salle (14-5, 4-2 A10, RPI: 25, SOS: 37) put themselves in the mix with a season-changing win over Butler. But then they went out and beat VCU on the road. They also beat Villanova, who just defeated Syracuse and Villanova. Just need to keep winning....VCU (16-5, 4-2 A10, RPI: 38, SOS: 58). was on the right track before losses to Richmond in overtime and La Salle. This is a team that needs to force turnovers. That didn’t happen last week. They’ll need to win about 22+ wins to get in.....Temple (13-6, 2-3 A10, RPI: 56, SOS: 67). Temple is in trouble. A win over Syracuse can only get them so far. They need to start winning in conference....St. Louis (14-5, 3-2 A10, RPI: 67, SOS: 88) has road wins at Duquesne and St. Bonaventure, but a bad home loss to Rhode Island. A win over Butler and Dayton would really help....Charlotte (16-4, 4-2 A10, RPI: 55, SOS: 143) beat Xavier at home but were crushed at George Washington. They will decide their chances with a game at Temple, Butler, St. Louis and at home vs. VCU....Xavier (11-8, 4-2 A10, RPI: 75, SOS: 50) can’t be counted out, but they are closing in on the NIT at best. Too many personnel losses have cost them.
Big East Conference
Who's In? Syracuse, Louisville.
Who is on the right track? Georgetown (14-4, 4-3 BE, RPI: 38, SOS: 69) lost Greg Whittington due to academics and may or may not get him back. But a huge road win over Notre Dame, followed by a home win over Louisville was strong. A neutral win over UCLA should help.....Marquette (15-4, 6-1, RPI: 20, SOS: 21) they are quietly having a strong season with wins over UConn, Pitt and Georgetown. They could use a few more quality wins to cement their chances....Cincinnati (16-4, 4-3 BE, RPI: 22, SOS: 15) has good wins over Marquette, Pitt and Oregon, but they need more. They face some softies coming up but then end with some really tough games.
Who needs help?: Notre Dame (16-4, 4-3 BE, RPI: 46, SOS: 79. Notre Dame has games left with Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Marquette and Louisville so they’ll have chances to earn their way in....Villanova (12-7, 4-3 BE, RPI: 49, SOS: 26) has had a great week with wins over Syracuse and Louisville. This is the same team with losses over Columbia and Providence. Time will tell...Pittsburgh (17-5, 5-4 BE, RPI: 47, SOS: 80)has good wins at Georgetown and against ineligible Connecticut. But they have to build their resume’. Beating Syracuse would help....St. John’s (13-7, 5-3 BE, RPI: 51, SOS: 27) has a win over Notre Dame and a road win over Cincinnati. At least it’s a start.
Big Ten Conference
Who's In? Michigan, Indiana.
Who’s on the right track: Michigan State (16-4, 6-2 B10, RPI: 12, SOS: 16) should be in, with a great win over Kansas and quality wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin. They just need to continue to win and avoid bad losses....Minnesota (15-5, 3-4 B10, RPI: 11, SOS: 3) is stumbling lately with three seven-point losses and one-point loss at Wisconsin. They do have a good win over Michigan State and at Florida State. If they fade as always, they could be in trouble....Ohio State (15-4, 5-2 B10, RPI: 24, SOS: 38) have road games at Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana down the stretch. A win over Michigan could be enough to get them through as long as they don’t completely fade down the stretch.
Who needs help? Wisconsin (14-6, 5-2 RPI, RPI: 47, SOS: 45) lost to Michigan State but then edged Minnesota in another under 50 point affair. A win over Indiana on the road gets them in barring a collapse, which is something they have to avoid. Scoring more than 50 points would help.....Illinois (14-6, 2-5 B10, RPI: 33, SOS:11) is helped by a strong schedule, but that can only get you so far with an under .500 conference record.
Big 12 Conference
Who's In? Kansas
Who’s on the right track?: Kansas State (14-4, 4-2 B12, RPI: 36, SOS: 55) has a nice win over Florida and that’s it. A sweep over Oklahoma in the season series would help. They just have to keep winning..
Who needs help?: Oklahoma (13-5, 4-2 B12, RPI: 22, SOS: 12) has a win over Oklahoma State. That’s not enough. A win over Baylor would help....Baylor (13-5, 5-1 B12, RPI: 34, SOS: 26) has two strong wins over BYU and Kentucky on the road. They don’t play Kansas State or Kansas again until Feb. 16.....Iowa State (14-5, 4-2 B12, RPI: 41, SOS: 77) lost at dismal Texas Tech, but bounced back with a win over Kansas State....Oklahoma State (13-5, 3-3 B12, RPI: 44, SOS: 61) beat West Virginia, which doesn’t mean much. They have a good win over NC State. Need to continue to win.
Missouri Valley Conference:
Who’s In? Creighton, Wichita State.
Who needs help? Indiana State (12-7, 6-3 MVC, RPI: 50, SOS: 52). Wins over Ole Miss and Miami-Fla. are huge, but they need more wins and a better conference record. A win over Wichita State would be huge.
Mountain West Conference
Who's In? none.
Who’s on the right track? New Mexico (17-3, 4-1 MWC, RPI: 7, SOS: 6) has wins over UConn, UNLV and Boise State. But they were destroyed by San Diego State. That loss shouldn’t hurt too much....San Diego State (14-4, 4-2 MWC, RPI: 29, SOS: 41) has a quality win over UCLA and New Mexico. They need some strong road wins to get in....UNLV (15-4, 3-2 MWC, RPI: 17, SOS: 19) is great at home and has a nice road win at San Diego State. At home, this team is very tough....
Who needs help?: Colorado State (14-4, 3-2 MWC, RPI: 18, SOS: 44) couldn’t beat New Mexico on the road but does have a nice win against UNLV. A win over San Diego State at home would help.....Boise State (12-5, 2-3 MWC, RPI: 66, SOS: 120) had a tough loss at Nevada and injuries are damaging their hopes. Wins at Creighton and Wyoming were excellent.... ...Wyoming (13-4, 2-4 MWC, RPI: 54, SOS: 102) can hang on to a bid of Luke Martinez can return. A win over San Diego State helps but they need much more.
Who's In? Arizona.
Who’s on the right track? Oregon (18-2, 7-0 P12, RPI: 20, SOS: 74) has a quality number right now and three strong wins over UNLV on the road, Arizona at home and UCLA on the road. Dominic Artis’ foot issue is one stumbling block....UCLA (16-5, 6-2 P12, RPI: 31, SOS: 23) has some quality wins (Missouri, Arizona), but a bad loss to Cal Poly. This is a very dangerous team.
Who needs help?: Colorado (14-6, 4-4 P12, RPI: 19, SOS: 7) has a chance due to wins over Baylor and Murray State at a neutral place. But they have to win at home. They face Oregon twice....Arizona State (16-4, 5-2 P12, RPI: 54, SOS: 97) has a good win over UCLA, but they need more quality wins. Seven of the last 11 are away so that could mean trouble....Washington (12-8, 4-3 P12, RPI: 73, SOS: 50) has a bad loss at home to Utah and a solid win over St. Louis. They still play Arizona and UCLA home-and-home with Oregon at home. Right now, they are an NIT team but things could change.
Who's In? Florida
Who’s on the right track? Mississippi (17-2, 6-0 SEC, RPI: 32, SOS: 124) have one quality win over Missouri. A win over Kentucky Tuesday would validate their resume’. ...Missouri (15-4, 4-2 SEC, RPI: 26, SOS: 47) has two decent wins on neutral courts to VCU and Illinois but that’s not enough. They could also use a healthy Laurence Bowers.
Who needs help?: Kentucky (13-6, 4-2 SEC, RPI: 61, SOS: 60) has four of the next six on the road. A win over Maryland in Brooklyn to start the season won’t be enough. Still would be shocking not to see them in..
Belmont (15-4, 8-0 OVC, RPI: 14, SOS:34) has just one decent win over Middle Tennessee State. They’ll probably win the Ohio Valley but if they don’t, the BracketBuster could put them over the top....Bucknell (16-4, 4-1 PL, RPI: 45, SOS: 141) beats La Salle, which looks better now. This is a legit mid-major team that nobody wants to face in the NCAA Tournament....Memphis (16-3, 5-0 CUSA, RPI: 49, SOS: 114) beat Tennessee on the road. That’s about it, so they’ll need to keep winning in the mediocre C-USA to get in as an at-large.....Middle Tennessee State (18-4, 10-1 SB, RPI; 35, SOS: 108) has a strong win over Ole Miss, but a loss to Belmont could hurt them if they are both up for bid....Louisiana Tech (18-3, 9-0 WAC, RPI: 42, SOS: 188) has a win over another bubble team in Southern Miss. They got it done at Utah State but the league’s only hope for two bids is LTech.....Southern Miss (15-4, 6-0 C-USA, RPI: 40, SOS: 142) will take on Memphis at home, which would be their only quality win.
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