Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

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John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn at Memphis
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The The simulator shows a high probability that there will be fewer than 175 points scored in this matchup. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-18 mark for 72% winners since 1996. Play UNDER with all teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games and in a game involving two good teams sporting win percentages between 60% to 75%. Brooklyn is a solid 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in road games facing good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game over the last 2 seasons; 26-13 UNDER (+11.7 Units) facing good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons; 15-6 UNDER (+8.4 Units) facing solid ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers per game this season. Memphis is a solid 22-7 UNDER (+14.3 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season and are 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite this season. Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA square off in this matchup. Both teams? winning success has started with strong suffocating defense that feeds into the offense. Memphis ranks second allowing 89.5 PPG and Brooklyn fifth allowing 94.1 PPG. No doubt in my mind this game will take a slow grinding style adn that every shot will be contested. Take the UNDER.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Hawks -5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Atlanta Hawks were embarrassed back on 1/14 against Chicago when they only scored 58 points in a 39 point loss. Since then this team has rebounded to play pretty well, they won at home over Brooklyn then played the Nets tough the next time out on the road. They lost a close game to the Spurs, but beat Minnesota handily and followed that out by blowing out the Bobcats in Charlotte. Not only is Boston struggling but they are in a bad rest position here tonight. The Celtics are coming off a loss to the Knicks at home last night and have to fly down to Atlanta to face the Hawks. Boston is playing their third game in four nights and 7th in 11 days. Since they have lost five straight both ATS and straight up, this team needs some time to practice. Unfortunately they also have a home date with Miami on Sunday, so they aren't going to get it anytime soon. I think the Celtics lose a sixth straight here in Atlanta.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay vs. Wis.-Milwaukee
Pick:UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Packers vs. Brewers? Nope, wrong sports.  In hoops, however, this has not been an easy campaign for Milwaukee HC Rob Jeter, whose Panthers are languishing in an unaccustomed spot near the foot of the Horizon League table, and having covered the spread in only 6 of 18 previous games this season. Milwaukee's problem is simple...it can't shoot the ball, reflected in very subpar 37.6% field goal and 29.6% 3-point shooting.  Prefer Green Bay's scoring options, especially with 7'1 C Alec Brown finally stirring (32 points last two games) and the Fighting Phoenix bench going 9 or 10-deep.  But noting the nature of this intense in-state rivalry, and a not-so-insignificant impost that must be cleared by visiting Green Bay, we suspect that an expected slower pace, due in part to Milwaukee's offensive limitations, makes the "under" a more appealing recommendation tonight.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston +5 over ATLANTAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Celtics have dropped five in a row. They lost at Cleveland and they lost at home to New Orleans during this mini-funk. They also lost all five against the number and as we often suggest, the best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping off. That applies here. Boston is very capable of beating a lot of teams and the Hawks are among that group. They came in here on January 5th and won by eight in the midst of a six-game winning streak. They match up well against this team, as their five wins and covers in the last six meetings here will attest to.
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The Hawks were in a funk of their own before two successive wins. However, they came against the Bobcats and a very beaten up T-Wolves team. They didn't look sharp in either and have many internal issues as well. With just four wins in its last 14 games, Atlanta is not the right team to be backing when spotting some points against Boston, a team that gives them nothing but misery.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Loyola Maryland -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is an interesting match up of the two teams picked to finished 1st and 2nd in the MAAC. I like MD who was picked to finish first to win this game for a few different reasons despite Manhattan playing better of late. First things first, Manhattan Jaspers rely too much on the three point game shooting over 40% of their shots from there. Loyola MD is really good in 3 point defense allowing 28.8% on the season. Manhattan has also had a problem getting defensive rebounds which has cost them games because they are leading to a lot of fouls. Loyola MD will give them issues here as they are ranked 14th in the nation with a 38.8% rebound rate. They are also getting to the FT line more than their opponents while Manhattan is -10 FTA per game and has allowed their opponents to get to the FT line 35.7 times per game in their last 5 games combined.

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Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Wizards -6FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington has been playing like a completely different team since they welcomed back John Wall into the rotation. The Wizards are 5-3 over their last eight games and have covered the spread in 8 straight. They are 3-0 over their last 3 home games, which included a 101-99 win over Oklahoma City. While I won't be laying points with the Wizards often, the Timberwolves are definitely an opponent worthy of fading right now. Minnesota has lost two straight and 7 of 8 overall. They are dealing with all kinds of injuries and it almost seems like they are starting to give up on the season. Washington beat a bad Orlando team by 29-points at home on Jan. 14. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Wizards delivered a similar performance tonight against the T-wolves.

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Brandon LeeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat -9½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami didn't play all that great against the Raptors on Wednesday, as they needed overtime to come away with a 123-116 victory. That really wasn't all that surprising considering the Heat were playing on 5-days rest and going up against a below-average team. Rest is typically good, but too much rest is often a bad thing. Now that the Heat are back in the swing of things, I look for them to come out and put a beating on the Pistons tonight. Detroit upset Miami 109-99 earlier this season. The Heat players will be more than happy to remind the Pistons of what they are capable of. In the two previous meetings between these two teams, Miami won by 15 and 23 points respectively. Lay the Points!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis Grizzlies -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I believe the Nets will be a little road-weary tonight as this will be their third road game in 5 days. Consider that they are on 4-14 ATS slide in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. They have lost by an average of 9.2 points in this situation. The Nets are 10-9 on the road, but the Grizzlies are an impressive 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Memphis also seems to feed off dominant performances. It checks in off a 13-point win over the Lakers and is 11-3 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. It has won 6.2 points on average in this situation. Bet Memphis.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat -9½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Heat were a little sluggish last time out, especially on defense, and barely sneaked past Toronto. However, that game came after five days off so a little bit of rust was to be expected. Miami has had only one day off since its last game so it should be very much engaged here. Motivated by that subpar effort versus the Raptors and also fueled by a 10-point loss in Detroit last month, expect the Heat to run away with this one. Prior to last month's loss, Miami had won two straight versus the Pistons by 15 and 23 points. In other words, the Heat are very capable of blowing out Detroit, especially in what I believe will be a motivated spot. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Pistons are 8-19-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings and 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings at Miami. Lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Ray Monohan

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards   

The Timberwolves who are just being smacked with injuries right now are trying to snap a five-game road losing streak. They've lost two straight and seven of eight. They're without Kevin Love, Nikola Pekovic, Chase Budinger and Alexey Shved. Washington returns home after going 2-3 on a West Coast. They've won 5/8 and are HOT. The T-Wolves are 0-10 when score less than 90 points. Expect a 10 point win for the Wiz tonight. 96-86. Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The favorite is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Joe Gavazzi

Dallas +2

What chance the lowly Maverick? They have already been dumped by their in-state rival twice this year by margins of 25 and 38 points. That moves the Spurs, who have a league best 34 wins, to 8-1 ATS in this series. San Antonio enters on six game win streak, the Spurs are 11-6 as road favorite. But this bureau has ridden Dallas to 7 straight spread wins as they enter the evening play on a 5-1 SU run. In that run, they are tickling the twine for 111 PPG. As I've written during this winning streak, HC Carlisle is a momentum coach, standing 44-22 ATS following three or more consecutive spread wins. SA HC Popovich will be sans Duncan tonight and will have limited use of Ginobili as he recovers from a hamstring injury, and Leonard, who is troubled by a bad knee. With Dirk fully integrated into Mav's lineup, this is the home team's best chance to get their double-revenge and run their recent streak to 8-0 ATS.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Siena/ Niagara Under 135.5: Been looking at this game hard and one game that Siena played really sticks out to me. Back in the beginning of January Siena played a home game vs one of the fastest paced teams in the nation (Iona) and they slowed the game down so much that just 128 points were scored. Now Iona games have averaged 157 ppg and the OU line was at 148.5 in that game. Now they face another uptempo team in Niagara and I expect them to be able to slow this one down as well. Niagara road games do average 145 ppg, but Siena home games have put up just 120.9 ppg, with nt one of their home games putting up more than 132 points. Offensively Siena is a slow paced team and they average just 58.1 ppg at home, and they play good defense at home as well, allowing just 62.8 ppg on 39.6% shooting. Siena slowed down the Gaels and they will be able to do the same here vs the Purple Aces. I look for this one in the 120's.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Memphis/ Brooklyn Over 177.5: 8 times this year there has been an OU line of less than 180 and 7 times it went Under, but I will go with the Over in this one. I do think we can squeeze 180 points out of this one. Memphis allows just 87 ppg at home, but they have allowed 93+ points in 3 of their last 5 games here and the Nets have averaged 96.2 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 93.7 ppg on the road. The Nets have played better defense of late, but they still allow 93.9 ppg on the road this year and the Grizzlies have averaged 92.4 ppg at home. Should be a physical game and that could mean fouls and both teams shoot 75+% from the charity stripe. I expect at least 180 points in this one.


San Antonio/ Dallas Over 205.5: The Mavs have been on fire offensively recently, while the Spurs are not the same team defensively without Duncan and it showed as they allowed a weak New Orleans offense to put up 102 points on them in their last game. Dallas has averaged 110.2 ppg in their last 5 games and they have averaged 103.1p pg at home on the year. This is an offense that is clicking now and will be looking to score a ton here after getting blown out in their two games vs the Spurs this year. Offensively, without Duncan in there, the Spurs will look to run and shot the three a bit more in this one. The Spurs do average 102.8 ppg, while allowing 99.2 ppg on the road this year. Should be a fun run and gun game with much more offense than defense.


Boston +5 Over ATLANTA: The Celts have lost 5 in a row, so this is a team that is in desperation mode and what better way to get back on track than vs a team you've won 5 of the last 6 against. Let's also note that the one win Atlanta had in that stretch was by just 1 points. The Hawks have won 2 in a row, but that was vs Charlotte and Minnesota, so their win streak isn't really all that impressive. The Celts have been playing very good defense of late, allowing just 90.1 ppg (regulation) in their last 10 games. I believe that it will be their defense that will give them the chance to win this one outright, or at least keep it to a 1 or 2 point loss. Look for a close one from start to finish.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

NHL Predictions

New Jersey Devils -146

The Capitals enter this game 0-3 to start the season, which included a 4-1 loss last night at home against the Montreal Canadiens. Other losses have been a 6-3 loss in Tampa Bay and a 4-2 loss at home vs Winnipeg. The Devils on the other hand are 2-0 with a 2-1 win in New York against the Islanders and a 3-0 home win over Philadelphia on Tuesday. It has been a great start for Devils goalie Martin Brodeur who is 2-0 with a 0.50 GAA and .977 SV%. Take note that dating back to last season the Devils are 12-4 in their last 16 home games, 18-6 in their last 24 vs Eastern Conference opponents, and 7-3 vs the Southeast division. The Devils are also 23-11-1 in these two teams last 35 meetings, and 13-5 in their last 18 meetings in New Jersey. We haven't seen much of the Devils this year, but they look like the same solid team that was in the Stanley Cup Finals last season. Washington has been bad and should struggle again in New Jersey here on a back to back against a rested Devils team.


Detroit Red Wings -108

Minnesota enters this one with a 2-1 record. They opened the season with home wins against Colorado and Dallas, and then lost on Tuesday night 3-1 at home vs the Predators. Tonight will be the Wild's first game on the road of the season. Detroit lost 6-0 in their season opener in St Louis, rebounded with a 4-3 shootout victory in Columbus where they outshot the Blue Jays 42-33, and then lost a 2-1 game in their home opener vs Dallas on Tuesday. The Red Wings had 40 shots on net vs Dallas and managed just one goal. Take note that Detroit was 31-7-3 on home ice last season, while Minnesota was just 15-19-7 on the road. These two teams split 4 meetings last year, but the Red Wings did manage to heavily outshoot the Wild in all 4 games. These are two different teams this year, but I think this is a good spot for the Red Wings with Minnesota playing in their first road game. The Wild are just 5-21 in their last 26 road games and 2-11 in their last 13 vs Central division opponents. Minnesota is also just 5-15-1 in their last 21 meetings in Detroit. This will be a great game, but I have the Wings coming out on top at at just -108 we get a good price.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Ian Cameron

Utah at LA Lakers
Play: Utah

I’m a bit disappointed that I haven’t been more aggressive in fading the Lakers during their rough and turmoil filled season but I plan on correcting that tonight with a recommendation on the Utah Jazz as road underdogs.

After watching the Lakers lose once again in Memphis, and hearing the post game comments from Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard – all three sounded negative and uninspired – there is little to no reason to support this squad, especially in the role of a medium-sized favorite. They aren’t playing any sort of defense and team chemistry is completely non-existent right now.  Howard left the game against the Grizzlies with a shoulder injury but is expected to play tonight. Either way, it looks like Howard has checked out mentally as his effort level and competitiveness have been lacking for the majority of the season.

LA is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games and that makes them quite a poor candidate to be laying -5 against anyone right now much less the red hot Utah Jazz who are playing some very good basketball. Utah is the polar opposite of the Lakers: 8-2 SU in its last 10 games (7-3 ATS) including a nice home win against the Miami Heat. The Jazz won four of five games against the Lakers in 2012, including a pair of games in Los Angeles. They have the interior size underneath to easily handle a banged up Howard in the paint with the likes of Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. Jefferson in particular has been awesome of late with five consecutive double-doubles and six in his last seven games.

Utah is already 2-0 against LA this season and I see no reason why they can’t make it 3-0 tonight which makes the generous cushion of points we are getting with the underdog an attractive proposition!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Andre Gomes

Milwaukee / Cleveland Over 201


Cleveland's trade with Memphis was actually good for the Cavaliers, as they got Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington, who will already play tonight. This means that Luke Walton won't be the team's only frontcourt player coming off the bench anymore, while Wayne Ellington is a solid role player. Cleveland has in Kyrie Irving a superstar when he is healthy and he showed that in the team's last game against Boston, who happens to have a very good backcourt defense. The same doesn't happen with the Bucks, as Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings are poor defenders. Cleveland's only offensive problem against the Celtics was their shooting, as they shot just 2-12 3pts and 3-15 FG in spot up plays. C.J. Miles, who is one of the few good outside shooters of the Cavaliers, will play tonight, so Cleveland should improve on this area tonight. Cleveland's offense has been based on isolation plays, pick and roll ball handler plays, mostly thanks to Kyrie Irving, and cuts. Milwaukee's defense is actually a top unit on these three plays (#4 on isolations, #6 in pick and roll ball handler and #1 in cuts), however Milwaukee has been facing some poor offensive teams lately that have been struggling for a while: LA Lakers, Phoenix, Portland and Philadelphia.

Milwaukee's offense is certainly improving and Ersan Ilyasova is coming from two excellent games. Mike Dunleavy is coming off the bench and he is contributing with some good shooting, while Monta Ellis is coming from a great game against the Sixers, where he had 7-10 FG, 18 points and 10 assists! Milwaukee has been showing good dynamic on attacking the basket and with a very nice transition game. They will face some nice edges over the Cavaliers's defense, as Cleveland is just #25 on transition defense (1.20 PPP allowed and 16, 17, 15, 21 and 10 fast break points allowed L5 games). The Bucks will also have an edge on pick and roll ball handler plays, as Cleveland's defense is just #23 on this area, as Irving is still far from being a good defender. Milwaukee's frontcourt should also take advantage of Cleveland's poor interior defense, with Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders being in good form to take advantage of that.

The Bucks are already #2 in the league in pace factors with 93.4, while Cleveland is averaging a pace factor of 94.73 in games against teams in the top 10 in terms of pace. In fact, Cleveland is also #8 in pace factor with 91.9, therefore I expect this game to be a fast paced game, where both teams will have a good offensive game tonight. So, I'll be taking the Over in here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

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Friday 1/25/13 Plays...

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 25

Harry Bondi

DETROIT (+9.5) over Miami

Detroit was in excellent position for their third straight win on Wednesday but blew a 17-point third quarter second-half lead and lost 85-82 at Chicago. Pistons are at their best when grinding out wins in low-scoring games with tough defense and that is what we expect tonight against a Miami squad that came back to beat Toronto in overtime Wednesday and has gotten up for the marquee games but usually sleepwalks until the 4th quarter against the likes of Detroit. Quietly, Pistons are playing good basketball winning 7 of their last 11 and the keep this one close tonight.

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