Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota at NorthwesternFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Minnesota -8.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern may be a pesky team sometimes, as they showed vs. Indiana. But, they can also be blown out because the talent level isn't up to Big-10 standards. That was on display vs. Iowa and Michigan at home, losing by a combined 48 points. The Wildcats also have an outside the conference hoe loss with a 20-point stumble to Maryland. This Minnesota team is 15-3 and is equally capable of throwing the dagger of another 20+ point loss for the Wildcats. The Golden Gophers are coming off of two tough losses to Indiana, and Michigan, so they are going to come ready to play here. The Gophers have a serious road pedigree at 14-3 ATS in their last 17, they also have the moxie, and the reason to win big here. Go with Minnesota.

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John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn State at Indiana
Play: Penn StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. No upset bid here, but this is just too many points to be giving a pesky Lions squad, who will be catching the Hoosiers napping. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-9 ATS mark for a remarkable 78% winners since 1997. Play against favorites of 10 or more points that are an explosive offensive team scoring >=78 PPG and now facing a struggling offensive team averaging <=63 PPG after 15+ games and after allowing 60 points or less in the previous game. Indiana was poised to blowout Northwestern, but had to hang on to just get a 67-59 win. Indiana will be looking ahead to the big showdown Sunday when they host the Michigan State Spartans so it stands to reason that Indiana will not be nearly as focused tonight. I also believe that if Indiana gets out to a 15+ point lead, the coaches will use the bench players in this situation. First, it gives the starters much needed rest at this point of the season and give the bench players more game experience, both of whcih make yeams better come Tournament time. Take Penn State.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas A&M vs. Louisiana State
Pick: Texas A&MFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LSU is an injury riddled mess right now, and their home court isn’t strong enough to overcome their many weaknesses.
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The Tigers will be without starting guard Corban Collins tonight (concussion), and may not have senior guard Charles Carmouche either (knee).  That leaves a team with very limited depth severely depleted tonight.
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LSU head coach Johnny Jones: “We'll have to use our timeouts in a fashion so our guys can have an opportunity to get breaks with a short bench. One thing we don't want them to do is rest on the floor and take plays off. That's very dangerous at this level. That's something that we're conscious of with the depletion.”  Don’t expect the Tigers to have timeouts left for the latter stages of the game here, a big disadvantage in this pick ‘em game.
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The Tigers are the lone remaining winless team in SEC Conference play for one primary reason – they’re not very good!  They don’t shoot well, they don’t defend well, they don’t hit free throws and they have turnover problems on offense.  That’s a bad quartet of attributes for any team, let alone a very short handed one!
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Texas A&M has won SU and ATS at Kentucky and at Houston already this season, and they’re hungry and focused off Saturday’s one point heartbreaker at Alabama.  Expect another road victory here!  Take Texas A&M

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Creighton -12FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bad spot for Drake Catching the Blue Jays off a tough loss at Wichita State Saturday, missing the cover by a half point, I had them!  Anyway Creighton already pounded Drake at home by 30 this year and Drake got got hammered Saturday by 30 at Northern Iowa.  The Fav in this series is 13-5 ATS and Drake has managed just 3 covers in their last 11 games, and are allowing 79 ppg their last 5 games, damn near what Creighton averages on offense.,  BLOWOUT.  I understand also Creighton in a bad mood and are ready to pounce here. In 17 lined games this year, Creighton has covered 12 of them!

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Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland St +2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This play is about as cut and dry as it gets with a Distinct advantage here for the home team. Neither squad is much to write home about but Cleveland State has beaten Loy Chicago 9 straight times and appears to have their number. They are also 7-1 here at home and the stats prove out that they love this court and everything about it. Shooting percentages are way up here, they have stronger rebounding and they get to the Free Stripe more readily. It appears that Loyola's season is on a downward trend losing 4 straight before beating Chicago State in OT. Fellas, Chicago State is not that good. Off 2 losses on the road expect our guys to be focused tonight and get a win here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

GoodFella

Houston -2

Excellent value on the "recently struggling" Rockets at HOME here, laying just 2 points. Of course the Nuggets are "streaking" as they are 7-3 L/10, while these Rockets are just 3-7 L/10 SU. I  have to back to these Rockets at HOME as I we are getting a couple pts of value here. I have the Rockets winning by 5-6 pts tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

SpartanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon -10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Long time observer of Oregon head coach Dana Altman. Have watched him come up through the ranks since his days long ago as head coach at Moberly Jr. College where he built the Greyhounds into a JUCO powerhouse. Altman has his Ducks hitting on all cylinders right now, just ask UCLA who were the latest victims. I don't look for Oregon to let off the gas here tonight against the Cougars. The Ducks are a spotless 5-0 in league play for the first time since since the 70's. I say lay the points and enjoy what shapes up as a nice, no drama winner for us. The best kind.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

King CreoleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland St +2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The RAMBLERS of Loyola-Chicago come into this game having lost BOTH meetings to Cleveland State last season. So they play this one with Double-REVENGE. But so far this season, that extra motivation has meant SQUAT when playing off a SU loss in your last game. So yes, sometimes it's much more profitable to play AGAINST that Revenge.
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5-17 ATS this season: All Conference ROAD teams playing with 'LSR2' (last season DOUBLE revenge) and also off a SU and ATS loss (Loyola-Chicago). Bring in an opponent ALSO off a SU loss in their last game (like CLEVELAND STATE), and the results improve to a PERFECT 0-7 ATS. So FADE the Ramblers on Wednesday... and play ON the VIKINGS!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Andre GomesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Raptors / Heat Over 196FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami is super rested for this game, as they haven't played over the last 5 days, while Toronto had 2 days off to prepare this game. The Heat won't have any problems in scoring near the basket today. Toronto hasn't been protecting the rim well by allowing 66% FG this season, 71% FG on their last 10 games and 75% FG on their last 5 games! The fact that the Raptors have been playing shorthanded on the frontcourt doesn't help them at all and Miami will then have a big edge on this area every time Lebron James or Dwayne Wade penetrate into the basket tonight. Every time Toronto faces teams that like to attack on transition, they aren't capable of having good defensive numbers. Charlotte scored 15 fast break points against them, Milwaukee scored 17 and even Philadelphia scored 16! No wonder that Toronto is just #17 on transition defense by allowing 1.15 PPP this season, while they are clearly on regression on this area right now, as they allowed 1.20 PPP on their last 10 games and 1.39 PPP on their last 5 games! Therefore, Miami's offense has a great spot for a big offensive performance tonight.
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Regarding the Raptors's offense, Toronto is likely to play small ball tonight and Aaron Gray will barely play tonight, as he isn't needed on this game due to Miami's small ball lineups. Toronto's offense has been improving lately and on their last 12 games, they have averaged an offensive rating of 113.8, when they averaged just 105.5 on their first 29 games of the season! They have improved a lot on pick and rolls since Kyle Lowry came back and the combinations between their guards and Amir Johnson/Ed Davis is very interesting. Besides that, Toronto has been having good numbers on offensive rebounds and they will have an edge in here against the Heat. I believe Miami's mindset for tonight will be to win via shootout, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia/ Milwaukee Under 196: Earlier this year these teams put up 201, but prior to that game, not one of their previous 9 meetings saw more than 190 points scored in a game.  The Sixers are having a real tough time scoring right now, as they have averaged just 89.8 ppg (Regulation) in their last 9 games overall and just 83 ppg in their last 4 on the road. Overall this year Philly has averaged just 90.1 ppg on the road, with their road games putting up just 186 ppg. Milwaukee do play a bit of an uptempo game and they do average 98 ppg at home, but coming off a west coast trip they may not be willing to play an uptempo game in this one They do allow 97.9 ppg at home, but the Sixers just don't have the offense to come close to that mark. Philly allows just 95.1 ppg on the road and even if Milwaukee were to hit 98 points in this one I just don't expect more than 91 or 92 from Philly. This one should be played in the 180's.  KEY TREND--- The Bucks are 0-14-2 OU (-10.3 ppg) since March 20, 2012 with at least a day of rest after a win in which Monta Ellis was not the Bucks’ high scorer.
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Oklahoma City/ LA Clippers Under 200;I don't always pay attention to sportsbook spy, but this one spot I have too. 92% of the public is on the over, yet the line came down to 200. Yes the thunder have payed 3 high scoring games in a row, but 2 were vs Denver and 1 was vs Dallas and neither of those teams play good defense, plus two of those games went to OT. Despite those last 2 games, the Thunder has allowed just 85.5 ppg (regulation) in their last 7 games, while on the road they have allowed 97.8 ppg on 42.9% shooting. Make no mistake this is a good defensive team. The Clippers have also played sold defense this year, especially at home, where they allow just 92 ppg. Overall they are 4th in points allowed (93 ppg) and 4th in defensive FG% (43%). This is a huge game for both, so i will not expect a wide open run an gun game. Both teams play good defense and should keep this one in the low 190's at nest. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- This is a wild one. The Thunder are 0-14 OU (-13.0 ppg) since December 06, 2010 on the road when at least one team is rested after winning the previous matchup at home in which Kevin Durant had more turnovers than assists.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon Ducks -9.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Oregon Ducks should be a much heavier favorite over the Washington State Cougars tonight. I look for them to roll by double-digits at home tonight while remaining unbeaten in Eugene this season.
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Oregon is 16-2 this season, including a perfect 12-0 at home. It is outscoring opponents 75.9 to 55.7 at home this year, or by an average of 20.2 points/game.

Washington State is just 10-8 this season, including 2-5 on the road. It has really bowed down to its tougher competition this season as it is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in conference play.
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The Cougars have lost both of their Pac-12 road games this season in ugly fashion against lesser competition than Oregon. They fell 67-78 at Stanford as a 9-point dog, and 54-67 at Cal as a 5.5-point dog. A third straight double-digit road loss in conference play is in store tonight.

Washington State is 0-7 ATS in road games in January games over the last 2 seasons. Oregon is 9-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
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The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Washington State is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Oregon is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Ducks are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Cougars. Bet Oregon Wednesday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Steve Janus

Indiana Pacers +1.5

Indiana's head coach Frank Vogel has made a point to his team that they have to play better on the road if they want to be taken seriously. The Pacers responded in their last game by going into Memphis and beating the Grizzlies 82-81 as a 6-point underdog. Knowing that they got two difficult games at Denver and Utah to finish up their 4-game road trip, this is a very important game for the Pacers. You have to like Indiana's chances of getting a win tonight against a Portland team that is playing with zero confidence. The Trailblazers have lost six straight overall, with three straight losses at home against the likes of the Cavaliers, Bucks and Wizards.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Matt Fargo

FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA    
PLAY: GEORGIA

It isn't very often we see road favorites this big, no matter how good the favorite is or how bad the underdog is. Florida is certainly a very good team but Georgia is not as bad as this is indicating. The Gators have won six straight games all of which have come by blowouts by at least 17 points and an average of 24.2 ppg. Because of this tremendous run, the number had to be inflated because runs like that gets even more of the public involved. Georgia is coming off a win in its last game as it took out LSU by nine points at home on Saturday. That snapped a three-game looking streak which started with a loss in Florida to the Gators so the Bulldogs will be out to make up for that defeat. Georgia has yet to win on the highway, going 0-4 in true road games and 0-2 on a neutral floor but it is a much more respectable 7-4 at home. Even though Florida won the first meeting by 33 points, that was at home and we need to look at the line value associated with this rematch. The Gators were favored by 19.5 points and now they are favored by just 2.5 points fewer on the road. Georgia falls into a solid situation here as we play against favorites of 10 or more points with a winning percentage of .800 or better on the season after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. The home team has covered four straight meetings and with this generous number, we can make it five straight after tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Brandon Lee

Pistons +6.5

The Bulls are coming off a huge 95-83 win at home over the Lakers, but I think they will struggle to cover the spread tonight against the Pistons. Detroit is coming off a 105-90 win at home over the Magic last night and will be extremely motivated tonight. The Pistons haven't won in Chicago since Dec. of 2008. Their 16 straight home wins over Detroit is tied for the second longest active streak. The key here is that the Bulls are still playing without Derrick Rose and could be without Luol Deng. Chicago is relying almost only on their defense to win games right now, and I look for the defensive effort to be lacking after laying it all on the line Monday against the Lakers. Take the Points!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Dave Price

Southern Illinois +11

The value lies with Southern Illinois here. Northern Iowa checks in off a 30-point win over Drake, and Southern Illinois enters off a 14-point loss to Illinois State. With these contests in mind, consider that plays against favorites of 10 or more points that are coming off a blowout win of 20 points or more over a conference rival and are matched up against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 72-37 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, Northern Iowa is on a soft 20-36 ATS run as favorite of 10 or more points. Southern Illinois lost both meetings with N. Iowa last season but kept the margin to single digits in both. The Salukis are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Dennis Macklin

Texas A&M +1

Neither one of these teams could score in the solitary confinement ward of a women's prison, A&M posting 47 and 49 in their last two games and LSU shooting less than 30% from downtown and just 61% at the foul line. In the Aggies defense, that's just what they do. In fading LSU, they're just a bad up tempo team that can't shoot. Texas A&M plays great defense and then runs a very slow deliberate offense that runs 25 seconds off the clock before it begins to run a play. When the Aggies play well, they are a handful. Three back they beat Kentucky which in itself is not all that impressive now. In their last, they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with a bad final minute at Alabama. Further, the Aggies are 7-1 SU and ATS against teams outside the Top 100 and generally fare well against their own kind. LSU is 0-4 in the SEC after playing a non-conference schedule (ranked #325) full of tomato cans. This one will be hard on the eyes to watch but easy on the wallet when you cash your ticket. Take Texas A&M

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Jeff Alexander

New Orleans Hornets +8.5

The Spurs are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers here against a Hornets team that is playing well and has given the Spurs problems. New Orleans is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last 9 games. This run includes a 95-88 win over the Spurs. San Antonio won the season's first two meetings but only by 4 and 5 points, respectively. The Hornets have been extremely reliable in the underdog role at 52-37 ATS when catching points the last 2 seasons. They are 32-17 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take New Orleans and the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Nelly

Georgia Tech + over North Carolina

With four straight losses Georgia Tech's strong start to the season had faded but they have had to play some of the best teams in the ACC to start the conference season. Georgia Tech lost to Miami, NC State, and Duke and then also lost in overtime against Virginia Tech for a 0-4 start in conference play. The Yellow Jackets only lost twice in non-conference play, losing away from home against California and Illinois. They picked up wins over St. Mary's and Georgia and the defense has led the way. Georgia Tech is allowing just 58 points per game while holding foes to only 37 percent shooting. North Carolina has great talent but this is a team that would be squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble right now as the resume is not very impressive. The Tar Heels have five losses including bad losses to Texas and Virginia and both ACC wins came in very tight games. Those wins over Florida State and Maryland as well as a narrow win over UNLV are the best wins on the resume but this is a team that has shown great inconsistency due to its youth. Georgia Tech has won S/U in four of the last five meetings between these teams and has gone 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings as this will be a much bigger game for the underdog. North Carolina has a huge game with NC State on deck so overlooking this game is a real possibility and the Yellow Jackets will play with desperation with the 0-4 start through a brutally tough starting slate in the ACC. Four of the last five wins for North Carolina have come by 10 points or less and all but one major conference win came by 10 or less as this is not a team likely to play clean enough to deliver a blowout in this situation.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 23

Harry Bondi

NC WILMINGTON (+7.5) over Georgia State

We had the Panthers of Georgia State on the "Steam Team" phone service Monday in their 71-69 outright win over Towson as 5 point underdogs but will go against them here as they should not be laying this kind of lumber to anyone in the CAA even NC Wilmington. Georgia State is not real deep and will be playing their third game in five days while Buzz Peterson's Wilmington squad has been off for a week. This is as big a favorite as Georgia State has been all year and they will not get over the number. Take NC-Wilmington plus the points.

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Joe Gavazzi

Miami +3

Even Plumlee admits it, "we are not the same team without Kelly." And until Duke makes the needed adjustments, they are far from their current #1 ranking. Eleven nights ago, we faded Duke as 3 point road chalk in their lone loss of the season (and only road game) at NC St. It dropped Coach K's record to 3-22 ATS road fav -2+, following a conference SUATSW, if now playing a greater than .650 foe. Now they are facing a team who is BETTER than NC St. The Hurricanes had a bit of trouble adjusting to the loss of big man Johnson. Losing in Hawaii to AZ and IN St early in his absence. Since that time, however, they have won five consecutive games. With HC Laranaga they give away little on the pine to Coach K. This is a terrific defensive team allowing just 58/38/31 with positive rebound margin, TO margin, and assist / TO margin. They turnover ball less than 11 times per game. Laranaga has outstanding point spread marks, including 77-51 ATS home vs conference foes, 32-14 ATS if allowing sub 65 in consecutive games, and 37-16 ATS following consecutive victories. Wrong team favored as #1 loses again.


Iowa St -10 ½

With defenses even at 70 PPG for each, this becomes an offensive game. That makes it no contest. TTRR is a team in coaching turmoil, with former assistant Chris Walker at the helm. They convert just 43% from the field, 27% from the arc, and turnover the ball more than 15 times per game. They are on a run of 4-10 ATS home dog, and a pair of home games vs Kansas and Baylor, they have lost by an average of 23 PPG. Enter high scoring Iowa St who under HC Hoiberg (the Mayor of Ames) love to launch the three. This team averages 81 PPG, shooting 45% from the field, and knocks down nine threes per game at 36%. But they are more than just a pretty face, with a defense that allows just 40% from field and 30% from the arc. Hoiberg and his minions are on a 20-6 ATS run in conference play. Cyclones blow'em away.

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