Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Joe Gavazzi

Brooklyn +4

Lets see how the Knicks do after their victory in London. Fully apprised of their 14-5 SU home mark and ATS record of 7-1 home to -6. This is the final of 4 meetings this season between these division rivals in a series that NY leads 2 games to 1. But those all came before PJ replaced Avery and led Brooklyn on their recent 10-2 SU streak. Lets play the Nets as dog to even the series and pull a game closer to the division leading Knicks.


Oklahoma -7

By the time this analysis is playing out, you will have most probably swept the college board with a 5-0 ATS mark. To ensure those are your results, it is imperative to make the small investment on my previous winners today that will ensure you go to bed tonight with all the cash stuffed under your mattress. In this ESPN nightcap, I favor one of my Mission Teams, Oklahoma. They are led by savvy 2nd year HC Kruger whose Sooners authored a 15-16 SU losing season in their first tango. This year, it has been a moneymaking 12-4 SU, 9-3 ATS. They have bounced from each of those first 3 losses with a 3-0 SU, ATS mark. That is a good omen considering the 69-60 loss at Kansas State on Saturday. That superior record following a loss combined with 5X revenge to what were superior Texas teams sets up an intense showing by the Sooners on a home court where they are 4-0 ATS HF winning every game by 9 or more points. The lost season continues for the Longhorns (at least until the return of Kabongo on February 13th). A microcosm of their failures is their road record which finds them 0-3 SU with every loss by 7 or more points. In those 3 games, they have allowed 78 PPG. Play the Sooners Home/Road dichotomy, with revenge, off a loss.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Black Widow

Washington Wizards +6

The Washington Wizards are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now. Due to the recent return of John Wall, this team has been a covering machine. The Wizards are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes outright wins over the Thunder, Nuggets and Hawks. They were even competitive in their two losses, falling 94-95 at Sacramento as a 5-point dog, and 87-94 at LAC as a 13-point dog. The Blazers are really struggling right now having lost five straight coming in, and they should not be a 6-point favorite over this hot Washington team tonight. Take the Wizards and the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Dave Price

Oklahoma -7

This is a game the Sooners want badly. Not only will they be motivated by Saturday's nine-point loss at Kansas State, they will be motivated by eight and 11-point losses in last season's meetings with Texas. The Longhorns will have a tough time getting up for this game on such short preparation time following a heartbreaking loss to Kansas in a game they led by 11 points late. Texas is 0-6 ATS when playing a 2nd game in three days over the last 2 seasons. The Longhorns are also 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games. The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Jeff Alexander

Brooklyn Nets +4.5

The Nets have been playing some very good basketball. They have won 8 of 9 and will be lacking no motivation here as they look to avenge last month's 2 losses to the Knicks. The Knicks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. Bet the Nets.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Nelly

Minnesota + over Atlanta

The Hawks have dropped eight of the last 10 games and this could be a tough situation facing a third game in four days after big games with the Nets and Spurs Friday and Saturday. Minnesota snapped a losing streak with a nice win over Houston on Saturday and the Wolves beat Atlanta two weeks ago 108-103 in Minneapolis. The Wolves have covered in four of the last five meetings between these teams and Minnesota is 7-5 ATS this season facings winning teams on the road. The Wolves have also been an excellent heavy underdog, going 6-2 ATS when dogged by more than six but less than 10. Atlanta has struggled as a heavy favorite, going 1-7 when favored by six or more points. Both teams are severely banged up right now with thin rosters but that is a situation Minnesota has dealt with all season long and has still found ways to be competitive. Statistically these teams have pretty similar numbers and the Minnesota has the ability to compete defensively and on the boards in this match-up. This is a lot of points for a struggling team to lay against anyone.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Wunderdog

Indiana at Memphis
Pick: Under 172

This should fully resemble a playoff game as both teams have been limited offensively, like to play in the halfcourt and impose their defensive will on their opponent. They rank one & two in points allowed on the season, with both squads yielding less than 90 points per game. Mempis has really struggled on the offensive end in their last five games, failing to get past 85 in any of them. The Pacers have been forced to play defensive in the absence of Danny Granger and they have actually held seven opponents in the 70s on the season. Lately those efforts have returned a 9-2 mak to the UNDER over their last 11 games. Memphis has been the most profitable under team oer their last 65 games at 44-20-1 to the UNDER, which includes an amazing 39-14 mark to the UNDER in their last 53 on one day rest. Play the UNDER.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

James Patrick

Clippers vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors

The Clippers will be playing their fifth game in eight nights and fourth on the road. To make matters worse, the conference-leading Thunder are waiting for them tomorrow. The Warriors are looking for payback from a (115-89) thrashing that took place just over two weeks ago in the Staples Center. Big Game James Patrick�s Dr. Martin Luther King Holiday selection is Golden State Warriors in NBA action.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

NHL Predictions

Boston Bruins -1.5 +155

I'm going to be really quick with this write up since the game starts in under 3 hours. The Winnipeg Jets started off the year with a 4-1 loss at home to Ottawa where they were out played for most of the game. The Bruins won their season opener at home vs the Rangers 3-1 and out played them throughout. Boston is always solid at home going 24-14-3 in front of their home crowd last year. The Jets who placed 11th in the Eastern Conference were 14-22-5 on the road. Although these teams split their 4 meetings last year, the Bruins won both home games by 2 goals. Including when the Jets franchise was in Atlanta the Bruins are 14-4 in their last 18 meetings with Winnipeg. The Bruins are a better team and I think they come out this afternoon and beat Winnipeg by a few goals. Take Boston on the puck line at +155.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Charlie Sports

Houston Rockets at Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Houston Rockets

The (21-21) Houston Rockets of the NBA Western Conference Southwest division will take on the (10-30) Charlotte Bobcats of the Eastern Conference Southwest in 2013 NBA action. This is the first of two meetings between the teams this seasons. Houston is only 3-7 their last 10 Against The Spread and Straight up, inclding dropping their last 7 in a row straight up and ATS. Charlotte hasn't been much better 1-6 their last 7 stragit up and 2-4-1 ATS their last 7. The Bobcats are also 0-4 ATS their last 4 at home. Houston gets the road cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

David Banks

Lakers / Bulls Under 194.5

In the nightcap of a special Martin Luther King Day NBA on TNT doubleheader on Monday night, the disappointing Los Angeles Lakers (17-22, 16-22-1 ATS) travel east to take on the Chicago Bulls (23-16, 15-24 ATS) at the United Center in Chicago at 9:35 ET. The Lakers are playing the second half of a back-to-back after facing the Toronto Raptors in Canada on Sunday afternoon, while the Bulls are coming off of yet another home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday night.

The Bulls' unorthodox home/away splits remain a mystery, as Chicago has one of the best road records in the NBA at 12-5, but it is now 11-11 here in its own building. One thing that has been constant about the Bulls home and away though has been defense, as they are third in the NBA in points allowed at just 91.7 per game and fourth in field goal percentage against at 42.9 percent. That scoring average drops to a microscopic 89.1 points here at home, but that has resulted in less wins that it should have because, for whatever reason, Chicago cannot score in its own building this year. Sure, the Bulls have trouble scoring anywhere as they rank 25th in points scored with 93.8 per game overall, but while most teams shoot better at home, the Bulls are only averaging 91.5 points here on 42.4 percent shooting. That combined scoring average of only 180.6 points has allowed the 'under' to go a lucrative 16-6 in all Chicago home games this season, and Saturday's loss to the Grizzlies was a microcosm for how the season has gone in the Windy City as the final score was 85-82in overtime!

Many experts were predicting that the Lakers would just cruise to the NBA Finals this season with new additions Dwight Howard and Steve Nash joining Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, but a combination of a lack of chemistry on the court and some injuries have the Lake Show at five games under .500. The Big Four are all back now although Gasol came off the bench vs. the Miami Heat Friday in his first game back following a concussion. The Lakers are on a 5-0 'under' streak of their own as they held their opponents to 44.6 percent shooting in those five games including 29.3 percent from beyond the three-point arc. Yes, Los Angeles is still allowing 101.4 points per game overall, but at least the Lakers seem to be making a concerted effort to improve that recently, and besides, the Bulls may not be equipped to take advantage if the Laker defense that was present before the last five games resurfaces given the way Chicago shoots the ball at home.

The 'under' is an amazing 46-19-2 in the last 67 Lakers' non-conference games and 6-0 in the last six Laker games vs. the Central Division. The 'under' is also 22-8 in the last 30 Chicago home games.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Chuck O'Brien

My free play tonight is on the Southwest Division-leading San Antonio Spurs, laying points on the road in Philadelphia, against the struggling 76ers, who are a disappointing 1-5 in their last six games against teams with at least a .500 record. And as much respect as I have for Sixers coach Doug Collins, I don't think his team is going to be ready to make a push in the Eastern Conference until mid-February, when injured center Andrew Bynum is due back.

This matchup doesn't fit for the Spurs, who currently rank third in the Western Conference, and who will stick a rested Tim Duncan back in the lineup - right in the middle of the paint, where the Sixers are starving. It could be part of the reason they've dropped 17 of their last 24, including a 23-point beatdown the time these two met, on Jan. 5.

The Sixers have lost have lost three straight and 13 of the last 20 meetings, and even though San Antonio has lost five of seven contests in south Philly, this is actually a good spot for the Spurs.

Lay the road chalk.

2♦ SAN ANTONIO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Matt Rivers

Monday's free play will be to take Baylor at home over Oklahoma State.

The Bears have gone 8-2 straight up at home this season, and they have also taken the last pair in this Big Twelve rivalry. Overall, Baylor is on a 4-2 straight up roll the past six series meetings against Oklahoma State.

The Cowboys have lost ALL three of their true road games both straight up and against the spread, and with the host in this series riding a 15-5-1 spread mark the last 21 times the schools have played, I expect the Cowboys road woes to continue in this late day affair in Waco.

The favorite in this series is a phenomenal 12-3-1 the past 16 series meetings, so side with the small home chalk in this one, as Baylor drops Oklahoma State to 0-4 both straight up and against the spread on the road this year.

1♦ BAYLOR

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Rocketman

Ottawa -138

The Florida Panthers travel to Ottawa to take on the Senators on Monday night. Both teams won their opening game easily as Ottawa won 4-1 over Winnipeg and Florida won 5-1 over Carolina. Ottawa is 7-1 last 8 meetings past 3 years overall vs Florida including a perfect 4-0 at home during that time. Florida is 8-20 last 28 road games. Florida is 1-4 last 5 games after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Florida is 1-5 last 6 games after a win. Ottawa is 6-2 last 8 games against the Southeast. Florida is 16-39 last 55 meetings overall in this series and have lost five in a row in Ottawa. We'll recommend a small play on Ottawa tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Indiana/ Memphis Under 173: Those that know me had to know this one as coming. LOL I love the stat that Sig gave. 6 of the 7 games with an OU line in the 170's this year have gone under the total and I hit 2 of those, including Memphis' last game (At Chicago) where the OU line was 176 and even with OT the teams combined for just 167 points. They can't seem to make Memphis totals low enough as the Grizzlies are 12-26-1  to the under this year. Their home games have averaged 179 ppg, with the Under going 6-14 in those games. Pace and defense are a big reason for that as the Grizzlies play at a very slow pace, while also holding teams to just 87 ppg on their home floor. Indiana is another slow paced team that also relies on their defense to win games. The Pacers have the top defense in the league, allowing just 89.3 ppg n 41.3% shooting, while also checking it at 29th in scoring (91.5 ppg). Should be a low scoring slow paced game that could be played in the 150's.


PHILADELPHIA +6 over San Antonio: Good spot for the Sixers here, playing at home on MLK day and vs a team that hasn't been that dominant on the road. Philly has played good at home this year, going 11-9 and have confidence building wins over Toronto and Houston on this current home stand. Philly has also take 4 of the last 5 meetings at home with the Spurs. San Antonio does have the better talent, but will not be able to pull away from this pesky and rejuvenated Sixers squad in this one. 

Portland/ Washington Under 194.5: The Wizards don't score well on the road as hey have averaged just 86 ppg away from home on the year, including just 83.1 pg in their last 11 away from home.  Defensively the Wizards have not been that bad, allowing just 96.2 ppg on the road and 94.2 ppg in their last 5 overall. Portland also come is struggling some on offense as they have averaged just 94.2 ppg (regulation) in their last 5 games overall. Overall Portland does average 98.9 ppg at home while they allow 97 ppg, but with a weak Washington offense and an improving Washington defense, vs a struggling Portland offense I just don't see this one hitting 190 points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 21

Brandon Lee

Washington Wizards +6

The Wizards have been one of the best teams to back of late. Washington has covered the spread in six straight and eight of nine overall. The return of John Wall has really helped Washington become a much more competitive team and I don't believe the public has caught up to their strong play just yet. Have to like the Wizards chances of at least keeping this game close. Portland has lost five straight with back-to-back home losses against the Cavaliers and Bucks. Take the Points!

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