Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

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The (21-15) Atlanta Hawks of the NBA Eastern Conference Southeast division will take on the (20-15) Chicago Bulls of the Eastern Conference Central division in 2013 NBA action. Atlanta beat Chicago 92-75 earlier this season, but the Hawks are 1-5 Straight Up and Against The Spread their last 6. Chicago has lost their last 2 both straight up and ATS at home. The Bulls are only 3-7 ATS their last 10 overall. Atlanta gets the road cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

John Ryan

Cavaliers at Kings
Prediction: Under

The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-5 record for 84% winners since 2006. Play under with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game and is now facing an opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. Both defenses have struggled this season, but I strongly believe that is already reflected in this line and exaggerated by public sentiment. Yet, these defenses are not horrid and they are playing better team defense. Kings offense is geared towards a half court set getting the ball as deep in the block as possible. They rank fifth averaging 44.4 points in the paint per game. However, Cleveland does a solid job defending the paint and rank 15th allowing 41.3 PPG from the paint area. Another factor this total is too high, in my opinion, is that both teams love to run a high paced game looking to maximize shot attempts. Cleveland ranks third averaging 84.6 shots per game and the Kings rank ninth averaging 83.3 shots per game. The matchups favor for both teams to play a more conservative style of play that will enhance their chances at winning the game. Take the UNDER.


Elon at Western Carolina
Prediction: Elon

The simulator shows a high probability that ELON will get a key road win tonight. WC is just 7-28 ATS (-23.8 Units) when playing against a team winning between 51% to 60%)= of their games after 15 or more games since 1997. Elon is not a sharp shooting team, but WC has not been successful exploiting those weaknesses in similar teams. WC is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when facing struggling shooting teams making <=42% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Sim shows a high probability that ELON will shoot between 40 and 46% from the field. In past games, they are 8-1 against the money line (+11.7 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take ELON.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

Steve Janus

Washington Wizards -1½

The Wizards have recently welcomed back their best player in point guard John Wall. In his first game back Washington knocked off the Hawks at home by a final of 93-83, which followed a surprising 101-99 win at home against the Thunder. This team is going to start playing much better than their record would indicate and are clearly showing some value at home against the Magic. Orlando is getting too much respect for their 104-101 win on the road against the Clippers. That was more of a result of the Clippers not showing up to play than the Magic turning the corner. You can't ignore the fact that Orlando had lost 10 straight prior to that win, which included a 97-105 loss at Washington! The Magic are just 6-18 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons (favored by 1.5 in that loss at Washington).

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

Brandon Lee

Bobcats / Celtics Under 191

This may seem like a low total for a Bobcats game, but I look for the Celtics to control the tempo of this game and not allow it to turn into a track meet. Boston's defense has been much better since they got back Avery Bradley. Over the Celtics last six games they are allowing just under 86 ppg. With Boston playing on 2-days rest, I expect them to come out and try and bury the Bobcats early. In order for them to do that, they have to bring the intensity on the defensive end. The last time these two teams played, they combined for just 176 points!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

John Martin

Oklahoma City Thunder -5½

We are getting the Oklahoma City Thunder at a bargain of a price tonight against the Phoenix Suns. The Thunder are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Suns, winning each of the last five matchups by double-digits. Phoenix is 3-16 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Phoenix.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

Kelso

Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
Pick: Chicago Bulls

This is as much a play against Atlanta as it is a play on the up-and-down Chicago Bulls. Atlanta is 1-5 in its last six games, including a 93-83 loss at Washington (6-28) in its last game, and certainly is not the same team that opened the season 20-10.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

Cajun Sports

Minnesota vs. Dallas
Play: Over 

The Dallas Mavericks are 10-0 Over at home after a home game in which they shot at least ten 3-pointers and made at least half. The Mavs are 10-5 Over at home this season.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

Erin Rynning

Atlanta at Chicago
Play: Under

The Bulls have dropped two straight games at the United Center, which is an extreme rarity under head coach Tom Thibodeau.  They lost to the Bucks and Suns, while allowing a combined 201 points.  It makes sense the Bulls will turn it up on the defensive end on their home court tonight.  The Bulls did beat the Knicks on Friday night at Madison Square Garden, 108-101.  Keep in mind the Knicks really pushed the pace in that game trying to get back into the contest, while falling down by double-digits.  In the fourth quarter alone there were 69 points scored.  Meanwhile, the Hawks are stumbling over themselves in January.  They’re 1-5 in their last six games and struggling on offense.  They’ve remained a soft team, while too quick to launch a jump shot and not fighting for better looks in their half-court offense.  The task will continue to be tough tonight as the Bulls are actually the best defensive team they’ve faced this month.  The last seven times these two teams have met six went UNDER the total with a combined market total of 180.5.  Play this game UNDER the total tonight on NBA TV.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

David Banks

Atlanta / Chicago Under 185.5

Do not look for many fireworks on NBA TV on Monday night when the Chicago Bulls (20-15, 13-22 ATS), who have oddly struggled at home this year, host the slumping Atlanta Hawks (21-15, 14-21-1 ATS) at the United Center in Chicago, IL at 8:05 ET. The Bulls have one of the best road records in the NBA at 10-5, but they are inexplicably 10-10 at the United Center. The Hawks have lost five of their last six games mainly due to suddenly bad shooting.

Regardless of where the Bulls have played this season, offense has not been a strong suit for them while waiting for Derrick Rose to make his seasonal debut, which may come in as little as two weeks. Until then however, Chicago is ranked 26th in the NBA in scoring at 93.5 points per game and 19th in field goal percentage at 44.0 percent. Now, most teams shoot the ball better at home than they do on the road, but not the Bulls, as they average only 91.7 points on a putrid 42.7 percent shooting in their own building. Chicago allowed Charlotte to snap an 18-game losing streak at the United Center earlier this month, and then on Saturday the Bulls allowed the Denver Nuggets to snap a 12-game road losing streak in an ugly 97-81 loss while shooting a miserable 36.4 percent. Thankfully, the Bulls have continued to play fine defense through there shooting difficulties, ranking third in the NBA in points allowed at 92.3 per game. That average drops to a stifling 90.8 points at home, so it should come as no surprise that the 'under' is a lucrative 14-6, 70.0 percent in all Chicago home games this season with those contests averaging a combined 182.5 points.

Now, the Hawks rank smack on the middle of the pack in the NBA in scoring this year, reporting home 15th at 96.5 points per game, but Atlanta has abruptly lost its shooting touch while losing five of its last six contests. The Hawks have distressingly scored 84 points or less in four of those five losses, with the most recent being a 93-83 loss on Saturday to the team with the worst record in the NBA, the Washington Wizards. In fact, the Hawks also scored 83 points in a loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers last week, a Cleveland team that ranks dead last in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 47.1 percent! If Atlanta cannot get out of the 80s vs. a couple of the worst teams in the league, how are the Hawks supposed to score against a stiff Chicago defense? The Haws do grade out well on the defensive end though ranking sixth in points against at 95.5 points per encounter, so this could turn into an excruciating game to watch on both sides.

The 'under' is 6-1 on the last seven head-to-head meetings including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago. The 'under' is also 20-8 in the last 28 Chicago home games.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Baylor/ Kansas State Over 142.5: These are the two best scoring teams in the Big and they should produce plenty of points in this one. Both teams were involved in low scoring games over the weekend and that is not their style's. These team's like to get up an down the floor and play games in the 70's. Both teams are in the top 22 in points per possession and Baylor is 43rd in shots per game, while Kansas is 137th. Baylor has averaged 76.8 ppg on the year and have scored 73 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Kansas has averaged 77.8 ppg overall, including 81.6 ppg at home. Both teams are good from long range and both can hit their FT's. Should be an exciting up and down game and should also be close throughout, which should give us the fouling game in the end. 4 of the last 5 in this series has scored 150+ points and i see the same for this one. 


Norfolk State -3.5 over HOWARD U: I did well with Norfolk State last year, going 3-1 in my plays involving them and this will be my first play on them this year. The Spartans have done well in this series of late, winning the last 6, with all 6 being by 8 or more and 5 of them by double digits. Norfolk has struggled on the road, but have played a tough road slate tat has included NC State, Illinois and Iona. They also had a game at Ball State and lost in that one by just 1 point. The Spartans are 3-0 in the MEAC and have won all 3 on the road. Howard comes in at 4-13 on the year and 1-2 in the MEAC. 2 of their conference losses came at the hands of 4-10 Hampton, with one of those games at home.  Howard is not a good team at all his year and will struggle in one of the weaker conferences in the nation. The Spartans will continue to dominate the Bison with another DD win here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Chicago/ Atlanta Under 184: The Hawks come in struggling some on the offensive end as they have scored 84 or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Im not sure if they can reach 84 points, considering they have scored 83 points or less in each of the last 4 trips to Chicago, while averaging just 77.3 ppg in those games. Also making it hard on this Atlanta offense is the fact that Chicago allows just 90.8 ppg at home. The Bulls offense has struggled all year and they average just 91.7 ppg at home. The Bulls have really struggled vs the Hawks the last few years as they have averaged just 89.4 ppg in their last 10 meetings with them. Speaking of those last 10 games in this series, we note that 8 of those games put up 178 or less points and that those 10 games averaged just 173.6 ppg. A low scoring series that should continue tonight with another game in the 170's.


Kings/ Cleveland Under 206: These two met earlier in the month at Cleveland and Just 191 points were scored. That now makes 4 of the last 5 in this series that have put up 191 points or less. Kings home games do average 104 ppg, but Cleveland road games have averaged just 195.5 ppg. Last night the Cavs were in a game that had the potential to be much higher scoring than tonight's game and just 206 points were scored in that one. Yes the Kings have a weak defense, but so did the Lakers, yet the Cavs were able to score just 93 off of them last night. Cleveland has now averaged 93.8 ppg in their last 4 games overall and they have averaged just 94.4 ppg on the road this year. Sacramento scores 100 ppg at home, but they have scored just 94.3 ppg (regulation only) in the first 3 games of their current home stand. I expect this one to finish bin the mid 190's at best.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 14

Dave Essler

Furman +7

Honestly, this is tough to swallow, but if I am choking I'd rather choke on a the best number and +7 may not be around forever.........OK, here's the deal. First off there's more value to seven points in a low scoring game than a high scoring game, and this game may not see 120 points. Secondly, Wofford is going to shoot three point shots and very little else. Yes, this is the team that caught Xavier by surprise, but they actually only shot 33% from the floor in that game, and made 15 of 17 free throws. They still only scored 56 points. Furman is not very good, I would grant you that, but they did just place CoC as well as Davidson pretty tough. Freshman point guard Stephone Croone is the lynch-pin of this team, and at home I'll take my chances. He's been turning the ball over less and less as the season has worn on, and as a team they hit 17-22 free throws the other night, so the potential is certainly there for an outright win, something we usually look for taking underdogs. Furman has lost to Wofford year after year, and this may well be their one shot at beating what USED to be a solid program. Since Dahlman and Rundles left two years ago, they've been on the decline, and often times (this is one of them) the line is based more on what used to happen than what's happening right now. Furman's about to play their SECOND home game in over a month, so clearly stats are skewed. If the Furman team that lost at Jacksonville shows up, this is a loss. If the Furman team that's been playing hard and well the last week shows up and Wofford is off at all, this is a very possible outright win for us.

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