Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 11

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 11

DUNKEL INDEX

Minnesota at New Orleans 
The Timberwolves look to bounce back from their 106-8  loss to OKC and build on their 19-7 ATS record in their last 26 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Minnesota is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Timberwolves favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2 1/2)

Game 801-802: Charlotte at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 113.088; Toronto 119.067
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 6; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 8; 196
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+8); Over

Game 803-804: Phoenix at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 113.139; Brooklyn 123.741
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-7 1/2); Under

Game 805-806: Houston at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.927; Boston 122.438
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Over

Game 807-808: Utah at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 116.177; Atlanta 123.353
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Under

Game 809-810: San Antonio at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 123.269; Memphis 126.666
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 188
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-2); Under

Game 811-812: Minnesota at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 118.118; New Orleans 116.488
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 185
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2 1/2); Over

Game 813-814: Chicago at New York (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.793; New York 121.882
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 6; 187
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: New York (-4 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Detroit at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.850; Milwaukee 121.358
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 817-818: Cleveland at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 113.073; Denver 122.582
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 9 1/2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 11; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+11); Over

Game 819-820: Portland at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 117.294; Golden State 125.638
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 8 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 7; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-7); Under

Game 821-822: Oklahoma City at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 124.973; LA Lakers 121.637
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 216
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NCAAB

Canisius at Siena
The Golden Griffins look to build on their 16-5-2 ATS record in their last 23 road games against teams with a losing home record. Canisius is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Golden Griffins favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-8)

Game 823-824: Creighton at Missouri State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 70.137; Missouri State 58.896
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (+13 1/2)

Game 825-826: Wright State at Loyola-Chicago (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 56.804; Loyola-Chicago 58.513
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 1 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 4; 113 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (+4); Over

Game 827-828: San Jose State at Utah State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 50.493; Utah State 63.179
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-10)

Game 829-830: Canisius at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 54.216; Siena 43.544
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Canisius by 8
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-8)

Game 831-832: Niagara at St. Peter's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 52.456; St. Peter's 52.367
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Niagara by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (+2 1/2)

Game 833-834: Fairfield at Loyola-MD (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 58.828; Loyola-MD 58.160
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 1; 125
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 2; 119
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+2); Over

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Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Portland vs. Golden StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Golden StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Warriors lost a heartbreaker in their last game out against Memphis on home court. I expect Mark Jackson’s vastly improved squad to go for the jugular tonight against a Trailblazers team that played last night.
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The Blazers have the unenviable task of playing the defending Champion Miami Heat at home and then turning around having to play in a tough road game against the Warriors the next night. The Blazers had to come from behind to eventually beat the Heat. I would expect a slightly tired squad this time around.
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Portland is 5-5 ATS when coming of the back end of a back to back. Note: they have not been in a situation where they had to play a team as good as the Warriors on the road during that stretch. 
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The Blazers are 7-11 SU and ATS this year as a road team and are 3-6 ATS when facing teams from the Pacific division this year.
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The Golden State Warriors are coming off a rare two losses in a row this year. The Warriors have yet to lose three games in a row and I don’t expect that to happen here.
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Golden State is 10-3 ATS when facing teams with a winning record this year and 3-1 ATS against Portland.
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At home the Warriors are a rock-solid 11-5 SU and 10-5 ATS this year. Golden State is outscoring teams by a margin of 4.4 points on average.
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Adding more fuel to the fire, the Warriors lost three of the last four matchups between these teams. I expect Golden State to come very strong and read to go and dominate the Blazers this time around.

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David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah vs. AtlantaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah is 19-18 SU and 18-18-1 ATS; it's coming off back to back wins, including a 112-102 victory at Charlotte as a 4.5 point favorite on the 9th. The trio of Derrick Favors, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap combined for 55 points. Note though that Utah is just 8-13 ATS on the road this year.
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Atlanta is 20-14 SU and 13-20-1 ATS; it's coming off four straight losses, including a lacklustre 99-83 setback at Cleveland as a 4 point favorite on the 9th.
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"I am a little concerned right now,'' coach Larry Drew said. "I've got to do something to get this team on stride again - and I will."
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A game at home is just what the doctor ordered as the Hawks have won three of their last four in Atlanta.
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And if history is any precedence, then the Hawks have to be loving their chances, as they've won five of the last six in this series.
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And note that Atlanta is 3-1 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more.
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"Desperation" is a factor that I often find the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line, and there's no question in my mind that the home side will be playing with a ton of it tonight.
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With both teams playing tomorrow night as well, "home floor" becomes an even bigger advantage this evening; consider a second look at the Hawks in this one.

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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wright St. vs. Loyola-Chicago
Pick: Wright St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Raiders meet the Ramblers in Chicago in this Horizon League hookup Friday evening Wright State will take the court in a highly desirable situation.  That's because they are dogs against a team they've dominated, going 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS the last twelve games in this series, including 4-0 SUATS when taking points.  With WSU playing its best ball of the season with wins in 7 of its last 8 games, including each of the last four, we'll gladly grab the points here tonight.  We recommend a 1-unit play on Wright State.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah Jazz +5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hawks have really been struggling lately so it's pretty easy to want to take the Jazz here tonight. Atlanta has lost four in a row both straight up and at the pay window by dropping games in Detroit, at home against Boston, in Minnesota, and at Cleveland. The Cavs loss was particularly devastating since it was by 16 points to a very sub-par team.
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Utah is a little disappointing this year at 19-18, but they do have wins and covers in four of their last five games. the Jazz are coming off a solid 10 point win in Charlotte on Wednesday night and preceded that game with a six point win over Dallas.
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A solid system backs our play that says to go against home favorites after four or more straight losses when they are playing their 8th game in 14 days or less. This system is 142-88 since 1996. Plus, Atlanta is just 29-45 ATS as a home favorite the last three years.

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Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden State -7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even though they have lost their last 2 games the Warriors are still one of the feel good stories of the season.
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Speaking of feeling good a healthy Steph Curry is leading the team in scoring and should be able to have a great game against rookie point guard Damian Lillard who has surprised with his scoring so far.
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The Warriors are 11-5 at home (10-6 ATS) but will be facing this team for the first time. Like so many other clubs the Trailblazers are used to seeing a trip to the Bay Area as a win underestimating Golden State.
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The Warriors are a fantastic 24-8-1 against teams with winning record spanning the last two seasons.

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Rob Vinciletti

Portland Trailblazers vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Portland Trailblazers

The Warriors are in system that has cashed 9 straight times and plays against home teams with a total of 180 or higher, that scored 90 or less as a home favorite of 4 or less and still managed to shoot 45% or higher from the field, vs an opponent like the Blazers that were home dogs in their last game. Portland has covered 4 of the last 5 as a road dog of 5 or more with no rest and has started January hot winning 4 of the first 5 heading into last nights game with Miami. For the free play we will take a shot with Portland and the 7-8 points.

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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Missouri State +13.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Missouri State Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country. A quick look at what they have done since entering Missouri Valley play and it's easy to see that this team is undervalued.
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Missouri State is 3-1 SU & a perfect 4-0 ATS in MVC play. They have been absolutely crushing the spread in conference action. They opened with a 70-59 home victory over Southern Illinois as a 5-point dog. They proceeded to lose at Evansville 59-62 as a 13-point dog before winning at Drake 77-65 as a 10-point dog.
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The Bears beat Illinois State 62-55 as a 10-point home dog last time out. As you can see, Missouri State has beaten the spread by a combined 65 points in its four conference games. It should not be a 13.5-point home dog to Creighton tonight.
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The Blue Jays come into this game overvalued due to their 15-1 start, which includes their current nine-game winning streak. They have had a very favorable schedule thus far only having to play two true road games all season. This is a quality team, but not one that should be favored by double-digits on the road against a hot Missouri State squad.
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This play falls into a system that is 81-32 (71.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (MISSOURI ST) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 9 or more consecutive wins. Bet Missouri State Friday.

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Portland Trailblazers at Golden State Warriors
Pick: Golden State WarriorsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If I had a vote for first half NBA Coach of the Year, it would go to Portland's Terry Stott. On paper, this is a mediocre lineup with no bench. But the Blazers have fought for the full 48 more often than not, and they're winning games. But this is a rough spot for Portland. They're off the big comeback win over Miami, and now have to face a Golden State squad off back to back losses for only the second time all season. The Warriors are a rousing 9-2 SU/ATS off a loss, and won and covered in the only previous off two losses spot. The points are substantial here, but if the Blazers are going to get blasted, it might well be here. I'll tab Golden State for tonight's free opinion.

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Jim Feist

Charlotte Bobcats ay Toronto Raptors
Pick: Charlotte Bobcats

After a sizzling run the Raptors have cooled off, on a 1-2 Su/ATS run, even losing aas 7-point chalk to the Kings. Charlotte can score, topping 100 points in three straight, including a win at Detroit as a +8 dog. The Bobcats are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings with Toronto, including a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Toronto. The underdog is also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the Bobcats!

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JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics -2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minus the short short # boy as we will lay the short spot tonight Friday in Bean Town ... These C's have taken 4 of 5 in this series and we will play experience C's vs youth tonight "The Rockets".. These Houston Rockets  are getting road weary and having to fly cross country... Celtics are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Huge capping edges on the Defense side with these C's... Ugly Win here by these Celts.. Power rated @ - 5.22 points guys.

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Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Thunder at LakersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We backed the Lakers in their easy cover but straight up loss at San Antonio on Wednesday night (lost by three points as a big 13-point road underdog), with the thinking that the loss of big men Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard would hurt the Lakers inside, but allow this team to play faster and keep up with the fast-paced Spurs offense. We don't like the side in this matchup, but with another fast-paced tempo offense in the Thunder in town tonight, we do look for another high-scoring affair. That Spurs matchup saw the final score hit a combined 213 points despite a slow offensive start from the Lakers. They'll start much faster here at home and we'll look for this one to sail over the high total.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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ATLANTA -4½ over UtahFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We get a beatable price on Atlanta here here due to the current form of these two, which show the Jazz being warm with four wins in five games while the Hawks have dropped four straight. We just can’t get on board with this Jazz team on the road minus Mo Williams against a team that figures to be a little extra hungry for a win. Utah is 1-11 on the road this season against clubs above .500. Its lone win came in Brooklyn before the Avery Johnson firing. They’re also 1-5 versus the number in the past six against Atlanta.
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The Hawks schedule has been rough in terms of travel with just two home games since Dec 30 so their mini-funk is excusable. Prior to losing four straight, the Hawks were still 20-10 overall and it’s only a matter of time before they catch fire again. The Hawks can spread the floor like few others in the league. They can also shoot the rock with the best of them and added another shooter to the mix recently in rookie John Jenkins. Jenkins drilled 15-of-22 shots last week, including 6-of-8 from three-point range. Coming off a lethargic 16-point loss in Cleveland, expect the Hawks to come out with lots more energy and focus. That should get us to the cashier’s window.   
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NEW ORLEANS -2½ over MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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According to the RPI rankings, the Hornets have played the toughest schedule in the Association. With a 10-25 record, with that difficult schedule behind them, with the return of Eric Gordon and an incredibly stingy defense, New Orleans offers up tremendous value. They’ve now won three straight over Dallas, San Antonio and Houston. Those are three of the league’s highest scoring teams and the Hornets held them to 96, 88 and 79 points respectively. 
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The T-Wolves can’t get healthy. When one guy returns, another ends up in street clothes. The latest casualty is Kevin Love, out with a broken finger, and he joins J.J. Barea and a few others in the infirmary. Minnesota has dropped five of its past six road tilts and with the Spurs on deck at home Sunday, this is not a favorable spot or matchup for them. The Hornets are so much better than their record suggests and there’s a real sense of excitement and confidence surrounding them at the moment. Cheap price to pay for the league’s most underrated team.   

Pass NCAAB

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Tom StrykerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Raptors -8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The last two times Charlotte was on the road the Bobcats knocked off Chicago and Detroit. Don't expect a victory for the guest inside the Air Canada Centre tonight. In case you forgot, Toronto (+2') visited Charlotte back on November 21st and left North Carolina with a 98-97 loss. It's time for a little Raptors revenge.
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It is noted that the Bobcats are a profitable 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this series. However, with a 15-84 SU and 33-64-2 ATS record in its last 99 games, Charlotte remains one of the worst teams in the league. In this role priced between -1.5 and +10.5, the Bobcats slip to a stiff 11-61 SU and 20-50-2 ATS!
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With a 9-4 SU and ATS record in its last 13 games, Toronto has caught fire. The Raptors solid play should continue tonight especially with the Dinosaurs locked into one of their best roles. As a favorite matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up loss, Toronto is a money-making 35-18 SU and 33-20 ATS. In this role favored by a three-pointer or more, the Raptors improve to a juicy 29-12 ATS!
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Coach Dwane Casey's troops have covered 19 of their last 31 priced as a favorite of -7.5 or more and they're going to be juiced up in this payback role. Watch the low-scoring Bobcats have all kind of trouble north of the border. Take Toronto.

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Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Bulls +4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Knicks are getting a little too much respect here. Chicago has won each of the season's first two meetings. Looking back further, it has won three straight and six of seven in the series. It is also worth noting that the lone loss during this stretch came by a single point. The Knicks will be out for revenge for the 110-106 home loss they were handed by the Bulls last month, but history isn't in their favor. Fading home favorites that are out for revenge for a loss in which they gave up 110 points or more to their opponent, provided they are playing the second game of a back-to-back, has produced a 53-24 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 5.4 points but have won by just 2.4 points on average. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

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Wunderdog

San Antonio at Memphis
Pick: San Antonio +1.5

A big Western Conference clash takes place in Memphis tonight with the San Antonio Spurs invading. The Spurs have been the top cover team in the NBA spanning over a decade of success, at 678-582 ATS since 1998. They have been an even better 71-45 ATS in their last 116 games and have the pedigree of showing up for big games. Memphis has lost just four times at home this season and Three of those were vs winning teams. The Spurs have been at their best after a win where they own a 38-15-4 ATS mark in their last 57 and come in here with confidence having gone 4-1 ATS vs. the Grizzlies in the last five meetings. Play on San Antonio.

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Teddy Covers

Wright State at Loyola Chicago
Play: Wright State

This was supposed to be another down year for Wright State; still rebuilding following a string of 20+ win seasons under Brad Brownell (now at Clemson).  But a funny thing happened to Billy Donlon’s squad on the way to the Horizon League cellar – they started playing great basketball, right from the get-go.

On opening night, the Raiders pulled the outright upset as ten point road dogs at Idaho.  They followed that up with wins away from home against Eastern Illinois, Idaho State and Hofstra.  Wright played at Cincinnati and hung tough throughout, a wire-2-wire ATS cover as 18 point dogs.  And here in Horizon League play, we’ve seen the Raiders win each of their first three games, two in blowout fashion, thanks to a stifling defense that has held nine of their last ten opponents under 60 points.

Even in last year’s disappointing 13 win season, the Raiders still beat up Loyola-Chicago in both meetings, including a 16 point win here in Chicago.  They swept Loyola in 2011 as well, winning by 17 on the Ramblers home floor.  In fact, Loyola has just one win against Wright State in the last ten meetings between these two squads, and that win came by a single point on New Year’s Eve in 2009.

Loyola got off to a surprising start as well, but they’ve come back to earth here in January, losing as home chalk to Youngstown in their last try on this floor, then getting blasted at Green Bay earlier in the week.  The Ramblers are a limited offensive ballclub, and they don’t play ‘D’ at Wright State’s level; primed for another home loss this evening.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 11

Brandon Lee

San Antonio Spurs +1½

In my opinion this line is begging the public to jump all over the Grizzlies as a small home favorite, but a closer look has me thinking that the Spurs are the smart play. San Antonio has won five straight in the series with three of those wins coming by double-digits. I'm showing almost 60% of the bets are coming in on Memphis right now. If oddsmakers thought the Grizzlies had the edge, you would think they would have set this line higher to try and get more money on San Antonio. Take the Points!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 11

Steve Janus

Boston Celtics -2½

The Celtics come into tonight's showdown against the Rockets riding a 4-game winning streak, which has coincided with the return of shooting guard Avery Bradley. Boston is a much better team when he is one the floor, especially defensively. This line is simply too low due to the fact that Rockets beat the Celtics 101-89 in Houston back in the middle of December. Boston is a much better team at home than they are on the road and are simply playing much better basketball right now than they were in December. Houston just lost on the road at New Orleans on Wednesday and are just 7-9 away from home this season. The Rockets are just 5-15 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 11

Steve Merril

Thunder vs. Lakers
Play: Over 216½

Oklahoma City has one of the best offenses in the NBA. The Thunder average 105 points per game as they shoot 47.8% from the field and 40% from three-point land. Oklahoma City has had a lot of offensive success against the Lakers in recent meetings as they’ve scored 103, 106, and 114 points on them in their last three games. And their offensive output should be even greater tonight since Los Angeles has allowed 103 points or more in their last five games.

Los Angeles is without their three big guys as Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, and Jordan Hill are all sidelined with injuries. This team wasn’t built to play the fast-paced style that Mike D’Antoni wants, but they are now without Howard, Gasol, and Hill on the court. And we’ve seen that in their last two games against Houston and San Antonio. The Lakers are now a run, shoot, and run some more type of team with the personnel they have. Los Angeles is an extremely small team, and the only way for them to proceed is to play D’Antoni basketball which is up-tempo and shoot a lot of three’s. The Lakers have ample shooters on their starting five and also on their second unit which means we expect Los Angeles to run and gun just like they’ve done against the Rockets and Spurs. We expect both teams to go up and down the court making this a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Lakers on Friday night.

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