Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 13

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 13

Accuscore

Seattle Seahawks ML +122

The Falcons are 1 point favorites, but many love the Seahawks to win this game despite being on the road. In my opinion, Seattle is in fact the better team, but they will be without Chris Claiborne, and their homefield is the biggest advantage in the NFL. That automatically makes them have one of the biggest home-road disparties on the league. However, if you like Seattle, there is no purpose to taking the spread as you would get just +1 at -110. Instead, take the money line for Seattle to win outright and get much better value at +122.

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Over 47.5

AccuScore simulations project the total line to be 51 points with the Over occurring nearly 60 percent of the time. The weather forecast for Sunday afternoon is fine with temperatures in the low 50’s, and only a chance of some showers earlier in the weekend. These two teams last played in Foxboro in Week 14 with a total of 56 points. Expect New England to throw, and throw often once again against Houston, and the Texans will likely need to do the same in order to keep up on the scoreboard. The scenario for the Under requires more of a belief in Houston’s ability to stay close or even get ahead, and control the game with Arian Foster. I don’t think that will happen. AccuScore, during the regular season, went 9-6 picking totals for Houston games, and 10-6 in New England games. Solid trends.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 13

Harry Bondi

SEATTLE / ATLANTA OVER 46

We expect both teams to be able to move the ball and put points on the board in the Georgia Dome. Falcons have the 21st worst defense against the run in the NFL. Look for Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson to gash the Atlanta for big yards. Matt Ryan averages over 400 yards per game in the dome and should be able to score against a Seahawk defense that lost its best player, defense end and sack leader Chris Clemons, last week and is making its second straight trip back east to play at 10 am pacific time. Trends also favor an over as four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the Seahawks and Falcons went over the posted total. Seattle is also 5-1 to the over in it's last six playoff games and the Falcons have gone over the total in four of their last five playoff games as well. Take over 46 in the Atlants vs Seattle playoff game today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 13

John Ryan

St. Peters at Siena
Prediction: Siena

The simulator shows a high probability that STP will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-15 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2007. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and is a struggling team winning 20% or less of their games on the season. The sim shows that Siena will not score more than 60 points in this game. In past games, STP is a solid 21-3 ATS (+17.7 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Siena is just 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when they score 60 or less points in a game this season. Neither team is going to make national headlines and will continue to struggle, but STP has a significant advantage at both ends of the floor. Siena ranks 320th in the nation averaging 57.8 PPG, 321st averaging just 9.8 assists per game, and 314th posting a 0.664 assist-to-turnover ratio. Take St. Peters.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 13

John Ryan

Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots

The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by a minimum of 11 points. The sim also projects that the Patriots will gain 400 or more offensive yards. In past games, the Patriots are 7-2 ATS this season, 20-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 66-24 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 400+ offensive yards. Moreover, Houston is just 0-3 ATS this season, 2-10 ATS the past three seasons, and 9-29 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 400+ yards to an opponent. Houston is at its best when they have the ground game established. It is one of the simplest ground games in the NFL with Foster making zone gap reads at the LOS. The Patriots, however, are excellent at setting the edge and forcing backs into cutbacks lanes that are then blocked with the presence of Willfork. I strongly believe that Houston center Chris Myers will not be able to consistently keep Willfork from getting upfield and this will be a major blow to the ground game. If Myers needs double team help, then it essentially eliminates a guard from getting to the second level and allows an extra Patriot defender to make plays and fill gaps. Simply said, I dont see the Texans defense being able to contain Brady. Take the Patriots.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 13

SPORTS WAGERS

New Orleans +7 over NEW YORK

The Hornets four game win streak and five wins in their last six all coincided with the return of Eric Gordon on Dec 29. Gordon changes everything. Since his return, New Orleans has held the opposition to an average of 87.7 per game and they’ve played some of the top scoring teams in the league over that span. The bench has also been much-more productive. Against the Timberwolves, in their last game, the Hornets' reserves outscored Minnesota's bench 45-14. Playing in New York is a rare opportunity for these Western clubs so these Hornets are likely to be as amped up for this one as any game on their schedule. A young, very warm and focused club playing with confidence is a dangerous one. 

The Knicks have dropped three in a row and five of seven. The injuries continue to pile up and the cohesiveness that this group showed early in the year has suffered greatly because of it. New York’s rebounding is average, the 3’s aren’t falling like they were earlier and now, in the midst of trying to snap out of a funk, they’re spotting a significant number to the Association’s most undervalued club. Upset possibility.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 13

Bob Balfe

Atlanta Falcons -3

Matt Ryan has just as many playoff wins as Russell Wilson. Like I always say, I think teams need to hit their bumps in the road before they can advance deep in the NFL Playoffs. Seattle is a flashy team, but the truth is they were just an average road team and they were 0-2 on the road this year in domes. Atlanta has a ton of talent. This team is a lot like Houston this year, but they are playing at home and its just an extra advantage that they are used to this turf. Seattle has a few skilled players that are banged up and I just think their time to shine will come in a year or two. Atlanta has been the same team with the same players for years now and this is a huge game for them. Matt Ryan will bottom down with the Tony Romo’s of the league if he cannot win this game. Seattle has kicking issues and I just do not think they keep this game close. Take Atlanta.


New England Patriots -9.5

I hate to do this in this spot because of all the points, but there are a couple of things I can’t get over. The MNF Game was just a complete blowout and Houston has actually gotten worst since that game. Gronk didn’t even play in that game for New England. I don’t see how the Texans are going to cover these tight ends. Now with that being said that game is in the books and has nothing to do with this game, but this Texans team lacks passion. Their offensive coordinator is interviewing with other teams and has head coaching on his mind. It would be stupid to say this team is not focused, but I just don’t like how they have played this year in the redzone. If you kick field goals against New England you are going to get smoked. Look at last week. The Texans dominated the Bengals and still had to sweat the game out. New England doesn’t have the best defense by any stretch, but their offense gets out to nice leads which makes other teams press and create a ton of turnovers. Houston has the talent to win this game, but something is missing on this team and I just don’t think they can get over this hump. They had their chance to play this game at home and lost the final two weeks of the year. The only reason why this team is in the playoffs is because of the 9-0 record against really bad teams. I don’t care much for the point spread today. I like New England to win the game so we will take them and let the spread take care of itself. One last thing I can’t get over is when Brady even gets looked at the wrong way the refs throw a flag. He is babied by the NFL and it sure feels good when your wagering on the team that is more likely to get the free 15 yards. Take New England.


Maryland +6

This Miami Defense is very impressive, but they are not good enough on offense to be this big of favorites and they might be in a bit of a hangover from their stunning road win against UNC the other night. Maryland gets overlooked in this conference, but can beat any of these teams on any given day. Maryland plays great defense themselves and we will take them as dogs tonight. Take the Terps.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 13

David Banks

Texans / Patriots Over 49

In a rematch of a regular season blowout played at the same venue, the New England Patriots again host the Houston Texans, except this time it is in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA on Sunday at 4:30 ET on CBS. The Patriots won the regular season meeting 42-14 in the game that began the Texans' late-season swoon that saw them go from an 11-1 start to finishing as the three-seed and being forced to play on wild card weekend, where they were rather lackluster in a 19-13 victory over the sixth-seeded Cincinnati Bengals.

Now Houston did run the ball well last week, rushing for 158 yards with Arian Foster having 140 of those yards on 32 carries, and the Texans will undoubtedly try to establish the run early with Foster here this week. Houston failed to do so in the regular season meeting when Foster finished with only 46 rushing yards, and that contributed to the game getting out of hand. Foster is obviously one of the best running backs in football, but he does not figure to run right through the New England defense either as the Patriots actually finished eighth in the NFL in rushing defense this year allowing 102.1 yards per game, and they were sixth in rushing average allowed at 3.9 yards per carry. Still, the Texans will most likely keep force-feeding Foster even if he does not have immediate success, as besides being a threat to bust a long one at any time, a high dose of running plays would at the very least keep the New England offense on the sideline.

Of course, that game plan would go out the window as soon as the Patriots build a two-score or more lead, so the key for Houston still comes down to its defense doing a reasonable job of containing Tom Brady, and it failed miserably in the first go-around. Thanks to outstanding play by the New England offensive line vs. a physical Texans' front seven that dominated a lot of other teams it faced this season, Brady completed 21-of-35 passes for 296 yards and four touchdown passes with no interceptions in basically only three quarters of play. Furthermore, the line opened up some running lanes also as the Patriots rushed for 130 yards in that game, and when New England is running the ball well, it makes Brady virtually indefensible. Moreover, considering that the Patriots' offensive line has played well all year and that most of Houston's gaudy defensive numbers were accomplished vs. weak opponents while that defense struggled vs. New England and Green Bay, there is really non reason to believe that the Patriots will not score a lot of points again here, turning this into the shootout that Houston does not want.

The 'over' went 7-1 in this divisional round of the playoffs the last two seasons. The 'over' is also 4-0 in the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams, as well as a sparkling 42-19 in the last 61 New England games following an ATS win.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 13

Charlie Sports

Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
Play: Milwaukee Bucks

The (18-17) Milwaukee Bucks of the NBA Eastern Conference Central division will take on the (14-22) Toronto Raptors of the Eastern Conference Atlantic division in 2013 NBA action. The Bucks are 8-2 Against The Spread vs. Toronto the last 10 meetings between the teams. Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS their last 6 overall and recently fired their head coach. Toronto is 5-2 their last 7 both straight up and ATS and have also won and covered their last 2 overall, but the Bucks get the road cover.

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